A whole rack of drivers trying to punch their ticket to the 2019 NASCAR playoffs have officially reached desperation mode. Our Wednesday race preview touched on the troubles with this race from a race enthusiast’s perspective, though most should agree there is no shortage of drama today. It’s the final race of the regular season and the final two postseason berths are effectively up for grabs by four teams. The books have reposted action and here’s our handicapping for this afternoon’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Handicapping the Practice Sessions
This article was prepared Sunday morning before the qualifying runs, so the order of start is unknown. Regardless, Saturday’s dual practices revealed which teams are bringing speed to the track today. Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, William Byron, and Kurt Busch posted strong 5- and 10-lap runs that are more indicative of today’s 400-mile race.
We’ve been supportive of Denny Hamlin for several weeks because the #11 Toyota has been on fire lately. Yesterday, his car was literally on fire. Hard contact in the waning moments of Saturday’s final practice caused significant damage. Needless to say, Hamlin will be running the Brickyard 400 in his backup car.
We locked in a pair of matchup plays against Willam Byron early in the week. Byron dialed up good long runs in yesterday’s second practice, showing us that he’s going to be a force to reckon with today. Ryan Newman and Paul Menard were not on the track long enough to show a 10-lap average. Neither one of these guys looked very fast in the 5-lap context, though Menard posted the fastest single lap in the late session.
Rounding Out the Slate
We weren’t confident in William Byron’s ability to finish high on the list at Indy earlier this week. The following opinion was backed by our dollars against him, however, you have to respect the speed he showed yesterday.
It’s not that we think Byron is going to be terrible this weekend, we just expect him to be average. When our go-to NASCAR sportsbook account opened these matchups we got exactly what we were looking for: face-offs with Ryan Newman and Paul Menard against William Byron. Since they happen to be at plus-prices, we don’t need a disastrous performance from Byron to earn some scratch from this fade.
William Byron -110 to Top 10
Are we changing our tune on Byron? Not necessarily, although one would be blind to the fact that he has one of the cars to beat this afternoon. Newman and Menard didn’t give us enough ammo to confirm a high level of confidence in the plus-money matchups against him. Betting the #24 to work his way into the Top 10 is a hedge against these plays. If Byron does not T10 the race, our handicapping says there is a good chance one or both +125 bets against him will hit.
Erik Jones (-130) over Denny Hamlin
Starting the race in a backup car at the back of the lineup is not the end of the world. We see top drivers like Kyle Busch week in and week out weave their way up with the contenders after starting like this. Denny Hamlin had a reasonably-fast car until the final lap on the final practice when everything went up in smoke.
@NASCARstyleodds hammered this one on Thursday when Jones was the +105 dog. Despite the loss of a lot of line value, the terms have certainly changed with Hamlin’s mishap and Jones’ strong Saturday. Denny has a long track record of Top-5 finishes at The Brickyard, but Erik is an up-and-comer who has made the most of the #20 car since joining the team in 2018. He deserves to be a favorite when you consider last year’s 2nd place finish with this weekend’s super fast car. Hamlin deserves the benefit of the doubt, but we would argue that Jones is undervalued in this scenario.
Brad Keselowski (+120) over Kyle Busch
Just like the Patriots in the NFL, you won’t get rich playing against Kyle Busch all the time. Nonetheless, we’re throwing Brad Keselowski against him in a plus-money scenario. Our notes on Brad in Wednesday’s race preview:
Indy hasn’t necessarily been one of Brad’s strongest tracks until he finished as a runner up in 2017 and then won in 2018. His 2018 win came on the heels of a winning night at Darlington before going onto another strong finish at Las Vegas. Brad T5’ed Bristol and Darlington this year after a disappointing finish at Michigan, and should be a Top-10 guy this weekend.
Kyle continues to be the race favorite, now at +300 after opening at +330. Brad’s odds have ticked down from +880 to +700 at the same book. There’s clearly a recognition in the betting markets that the #2 Ford has some serious speed today. It’s tough to run into the teeth of a guy who won the Brickyard 400 in 2015 & 2016, but the odds are right considering they are running well and both have earned their stripes at Indy.
The BetCrushers Indianapolis Brickyard 400 Betting Card
- Ryan Newman +125 over William Byron
- Paul Menard +125 over William Byron
- William Byron -110 to Top 10
- Erik Jones -130 over Denny Hamlin
- Brad Keselowski +120 over Kyle Busch
