2020 is a year of change for the NASCAR Cup Series in many respects, one of which is front and center this weekend. For the last two years, Indianapolis Motor Speedway hosted the final race before the postseason. This year, the traditional July 4th weekend race at Daytona is now the Brickyard 400 at Indy. This controversial move gave Daytona the final regular-season race but eliminated the iconic Daytona/July 4th combo in place since the track opened in 1959. After a quick Pocono recap, we’ll get you geared up for NASCAR action on Independence Day Weekend at Indy.
The Pocono Double
After a short rain delay, (what’s new) Saturday’s Pocono Organics 325 ran smoothly. The PJ1 traction compound returned after its 2019 debut on the Tricky Triangle, opening up multiple grooves on the turns and making downshifting less relevant. Tire wear was also a non-factor. This became immediately apparent when only a portion of the field made a pit stop at the competition caution. Another slug came in at the end of Stage 1, and a few others waited even longer to make their first stop.
Almirola started on the pole and led the first 19 laps before Logano took the lead on a lap 20 restart. Logano claimed a stage win in the short 25-lap opening stage. Throughout most of the opening stage, Almirola, Logano and Logano’s Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney ran in the top-three positions. Despite not pitting during a lap-12 competition caution and a lap-17 caution for a Quin Houff spin, the trio of drivers continued to stay out after the first stage.
Kevin Harvick scores first Pocono Raceway win – Motorsportweek.com
Strategy and track position became paramount, as evidenced by the final stops for frontrunners Aric Almirola and Kevin Harvick. Harvick took just two tires and flipped positions with AA. A charging Denny Hamlin ran out of laps while hunting down the #4 Mustang, allowing The Closer to claim victory to the Pocono Organics 325. Track position again reigned supreme in Sunday’s Pocono 350, except that the traction compound lost effectiveness and more drivers found themselves in trouble. Ultimately, Harvick and Hamlin vied for the win Sunday evening. The roles, however, were reversed and Denny’s Toyota crossed the finish line ahead of Kevin’s Ford. These two dominant performances maintained the status quo atop the projected playoff standings.
Banging out a Profit
Saturday’s four-position card resulted in a chop, just like Talladega. My main thesis relied on backing proficient young drivers Erik Jones and William Byron in a double fade of Jimmie Johnson. Early on, this approach was promising as both Jones and Byron were taking care of business. Then a small issue with Kurt Busch’s #1 car caused Erik to swerve and smash into Tyler Reddick. Jones’ early exit was especially painful because it happened when Jimmie was well on his way to finishing as the last car on the lead lap.
The karmic balance shifted in the waning laps of Saturday’s race when Joey Logano’s tire suddenly went down. This let Ryan Blaney – who was about five seconds behind him – win that matchup and even up our betting card. Brad Keselowski’s ho-hum day and 9th place finish tempered my lofty expectations in that direction. The three Penske Mustangs looked great early but failed to menace Harvick, Hamlin, and Almirola when it counted.
Laying Low in Race Two
Sunday, on the other hand, brought a completely different betting scenario. The Pocono 350 odds became more polarized based on the first race of the doubleheader. Both Byron and Jones started in the back with a group of other reliable drivers like Joey Logano and Chase Elliott who had switched to backup cars. Byron’s engine change cost him a 7th place starting position and Jones had to run his backup car. Ironically, Jones finished 3rd and Byron 7th. Lesson learned. I was also unsure about Brad Keselowski’s firepower for another shot at the Top 5 position.
After analyzing the odds and matchups Sunday morning, I found myself repeatedly drawn to Clint Bowyer. Clint’s 7th place finish the evening before was admittedly influential. More importantly, Clint’s solid performance reinforced my position that he and his Stewart-Haas Racing team could – and did – implement a successful strategy at Pocono. I played him to outrace Alex Bowman (-110) and finish in the Top 10 (+100). Bowyer and Bowman put on one hell of a show as they rounded Turn 3 of the final lap. Spoiler alert: this banging finish put a cherry on top of the Pocono doubleheader and our betting weekend. As my BetCrushers partner Yanni said after the race: “You mess with the bull, you get the horns.”
Fireworks in Indy?
COVID-19 stole Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s thunder by pushing the Indy 500 out of its traditional Memorial Day weekend spot. The pandemic continues to influence events, squashing NASCAR’s side events this week and keeping spectators out of the stands. With a seating capacity over 250,000 and the tunnel-like feel of the pagoda looming over the start-finish line, the environment at IMS is unlike any other. To properly celebrate Independence Day weekend, the hallowed ground of open-wheel racing plays host to three cross-format races.
IMS officials announced the decision to run the three races — the IndyCar GMR Grand Prix and the Xfinity Series Pennzoil 150 on July 4, and the NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 on July 5
ESPN.com – June 4, 2020
Unfortunately, the 110-year old racing venue is criticized as one of the worst for Cup Series races. If there’s a venue where the pandemic-mandated empty stands will feel close to normal, it’s IMS. Attendance has taken a dive here in recent years, which is part of the reason why NASCAR brass continues to search for the right spot on the schedule. Indy’s flat, boxy corners and long straightaways contribute to unappealing stock car racing. If you thought Pocono was a snooze fest, this week’s 2.5-mile track won’t keep your eyelids any more open. There was hope in 2019 that the new rules package would spice things up here, but the jury is still out.
The House of Hendrick
Rick Hendrick’s heavy-hitting Chevys have ruled the roost at IMS since NASCAR came to town. In fact, Hendrick Motorsports has won ten of the 26 Brickyard contests. Five-time Brickyard winner Jeff Gordon took the inaugural Cup race here in 1994. The now-Fox-Sports racing analyst went on to capture the checkered flag four more times in his illustrious career, as recently as 2014.
Not to be outdone by Kasey Kahne’s 2017 Brickyard win, Jimmie Johnson staked his claim at IMS four times. The senior member of Hendrick’s current roster last won here in 2012. Despite JJ’s past success at Indy, he’s been priced this week as an also-ran. In reality, Johnson had decent runs in 2017 & 2019 but ultimately busted from accidents. His glory days have all but passed him, as evidenced by the lackluster showing at Pocono last weekend. One could say that since the Homestead race the sizzle has fizzled on the Jimmie Johnson Farewell Tour.
The youth movement is bright at Hendrick Motorsports, especially with the kid sitting behind the wheel of the #9 Camaro. Chase Elliott had gear shifting issues on Saturday, then pushed his way to a 4th place finish after starting in the back on Sunday. Elliott would love to bolster his resume at Indy with his seventh Top 5 finish since NASCAR’s return to action, but he’ll have to battle some tough veteran competition to do so. As for his fellow up-and-coming teammates Alex Bowman and William Byron? Read on, because they are front and center on our betting card.
A Sneak Peek
As NASCAR handicapper -and friend of the BetCrushers – Paul Napier (@NASCARStyleOdds) said to me recently, Indy shares a lot of qualities with Pocono. In an actionable sense, team performance and strategy implementation at the Tricky Triangle should factor into your handicapping at the Brickyard. The Pocono Double provided us with a sneak peek of who may be tuned up for a big day at Indy. You better believe that Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are ready to tackle the 2.5-mile oval on Sunday. Harvick won his first Pocono race on Saturday – will Denny finally get his first at Indy?
The BetCrushers Betting Card
The top of this week’s odds board looks very familiar. Kevin and Kyle led a cluster of drivers including Denny for the first race at Pocono. After Saturday night, Harvick and Hamlin were clearly the teams to beat. The similarities at Pocono translate to this week’s opener, favoring this top-tier trifecta. Harvick is the defending Brickyard champion and Saturday’s Pocono Organics 325 winner. Two-time Indy winner Kyle Busch looks to snap his 2020 winless streak and shared the second spot on the opening list with JGR teammate Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is as hot as they come at this point in the Cup Series season and is undoubtedly focused on getting his first Indy win, which would be his fifth checkered flag of 2020.
Denny Hamlin -115 vs. Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch threatens to win as consistently as anyone, but I feel that he is significantly overvalued in this race. Since Busch’s last Indy win in 2016, Harvick, Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, Bowyer, and even Newman have consistently outperformed him. Are all of these guys better drivers in the larger context? No. But the Busch premium is in full effect this week. Are the short odds warranted considering that Busch is still looking for his first win of 2020?
Busch ran fairly well in both Pocono races before suffering an early exit on Sunday at the hands of lapped traffic and Ryan Blaney. The defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion carries the weight of back-to-back Brickyard wins in 2015 & 2016. Even though he found trouble last year and was involved in 2017’s cluster wreck, eight of Kyle’s last ten Indy races were Top 10 finishes. He outraced his JGR teammate from 2010-2016 and has led about three times more laps here than Hamlin has.
In my opinion, this matchup comes down to a series of small edges stacked in Hamlin’s favor. Crew chief Chris Gabehart and the #11 team crafted an impeccable race strategy last weekend, falling just short on Saturday then adjusting enough to run away with Sunday’s race. For more evidence that this team is clicking on all cylinders, Hamlin outraced Kyle in the four contests since Homestead. If you back out the ballast fiasco in the Coke 600 and the two short tracks, Denny has Top 5 finishes in each of the eight other races since returning from the break. Plus, they get the pick of the litter on pit road this weekend. Kyle Busch may be overdue for his first win of the 2020 season, but Denny Hamlin is running way too well to pass on this matchup.
Clint Bowyer -115 vs. Kurt Busch
How should I properly thank Clint for his profitable demolition derby-style finish in the Pocono 350? Jump right back on that horse and get him on our betting card at Indy. Our regular readers know that I’m not afraid to fade Mr. Bowyer depending on the situation. And Kurt is typically a driver that I back as an undervalued veteran in matchups and Top 10 markets. Not this week.
Kurt Busch was as steady as they came after NASCAR returned to action, rattling off five straight Top 10 finishes between the Coke 600 and Martinsville. He did well for us in that stretch, including back-to-back gutsy matchup wins against Jimmie Johnson. But like most Cup drivers, his talents play less well at some tracks than others. Busch was flat out uninspiring at Pocono, which doesn’t bode well. His 18th place finish on Saturday indirectly earned him the pole on Sunday. Kurt looked good in clean air, but once that was gone he became irrelevant in the race. As Paul Napier and I discussed on this week’s PTONS pod, Chip Ganassi Racing is at a disadvantage to teams like Stewart-Haas or even Chevy’s Hendrick Motorsports.
My position isn’t just about the way that Bowyer finished Sunday’s race; it’s about how he has improved at certain tracks in the SHR Mustang. Pocono and Indy are two good examples. Throw out the 2017 Brickyard 400, as crashes wiped these two out along with several other quality drivers. Bad things can always happen to good drivers, and that’s how you could also characterize Busch’s run here last year. At the end of the day, both are grindy vets and I like to back them in the right spots. Give me Clint Bowyer to outrace Kurt Busch at Indy this weekend in a pick ’em matchup.
William Byron -115 vs. Alex Bowman
I’ll keep this one real. Last Sunday’s fade of Alex Bowman was 0.002 seconds and three body blows short of failing. I recognize that Bowman stabilized his season after a rocky restart at Darlington. He was solid at Pocono despite a blown tire on Saturday. And here I am advocating a play against AB at Indy? Valuation is relative in a matchup bet, and Alex’s competitor is fellow teammate William Byron. Byron climbed into the Cup ranks in the 2018 season at the same time that Bowman returned to driving the big rigs as a member of Hendrick Motorsports.
I truly believe that young William is one step ahead of Alex at a number of tracks. Pocono was a good example, though the recent results can be a little deceiving on face value. Bowman busted out on Saturday and Byron had to swap engines for Sunday’s race. Credit is due to Alex and the #88 team for his third Top 10 finish in five races. But when it comes to how Sunday should play out, I have to give the #24 Chevy an edge. It’s unlikely that William Byron will deliver another Top 5 performance at Indy, though a clean Top 10 run should be enough to stay just ahead of Alex Bowman.
Crossing the Ohio River
The Cup Series’ next stop is across the Ohio River in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. We’ll have a full race breakdown for you after the holiday weekend. Be safe and enjoy! Follow us on Twitter and check our NASCAR page to keep an eye out for our handicaps and what positions we’re taking. Or subscribe below for email alerts so you’ll never miss one of our features ever again:
