Friday’s 2 plays were a…you guessed it: a split. 1-1 on the day (-0.04 units) moves the week to 3-4 for -0.95 units. The weak link was St. Louis. I tried to buck the Cardinals slump off a day of rest with the Braves coming into town after a 13-inning game. Whether it was the Cardinals hitters being in a funk or Mike Foltynewicz turning the corner on his season, the Braves were clearly the better team last night.
Oakland came to the rescue in the nightcap against the Mariners with a 6-2 win. In all honesty, I went to sleep right before the A’s broke out the bats and put up 4 in the 4th inning. All I saw was Mengden struggling and LeBlanc frustrating the Oakland hitters. Not a bad result to wake up to.
Yesterday’s flight to BetCrushers HQ was productive. Other than underlining the point that I made too many loose, costly bets in the first 4 weeks of the season, I came to a decent conclusion that a manufactured -1 run line has performed considerably better than the traditional -1.5 run line. Granted, this was applied to a limited set of results and to my handicapping approach. A deeper dive is needed (probably on the return flight) to make further conclusions and then back test to prior seasons. To be continued.
It’s time to shift this thing out of neutral and make some headway. I’ve got 4 tickets and am ready to officially kick off Memorial Day weekend…
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Rule Breaker: Reds +137
I’m breaking the weakest of my MLB betting rules today: playing a game at Wrigley. There’s something about this park that I have trouble handicapping games in. But this number is one that I am taking a stab at, especially with a Reds team that has played the Cubs well this season. Last place Cincy is 4-1 against the first place Cubs, which just about sums up the mediocrity in the NL Central right now.
This isn’t just about how well the Reds have played the Cubs; there’s some handicapping that actually went into this play. I have this game about even, making the +137 a juicy number to grab. Tyler Mahle has pitched well lately, other than a recent start at San Francisco. He allowed 1 run or less in 3 of his last 4 starts and has a low 30.5% fly ball rate. Mahle’s low fly ball tendency is good because he gives up homers at a 16.3% HR/fly ball ratio.
Yu Darvish is a weak spot in the Cubs rotation, though he typically generates a lot of strikeouts. He limits hard contact to 29.3% and generates a lot of ground balls (50%) but has a tough time going deep in the game. His major weakness is walks (36 in 48 innings) and can be susceptible to home runs. When he does give up fly balls, they’re long ones. 25% of fly balls hit off of Darvish end up as homers, which he has not given up in 3 starts. But the wind is blowing out at Wrigley and that trend could easily change with some opportunistic Reds hitting. Could be a slugfest, but give me the dog.
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Switch it Up: Braves -116
Last night’s play against Mike Foltynewicz/on a Cardinals slump-buster was a failure. St. Louis gets a tougher test against Mike Soroka who truly caught my eye against Cincinnati early in the season. He’s been absolutely nails, giving up only 5 runs in 44.2 innings. Although the 1.01 ERA/3.71 xFIP combo tells me he’s not going to maintain this insane pace, a 41K/14BB ratio says he knows how to work the strike zone. Other crazy metrics include a 29.4% hard contact rate that is barely higher than a 23.5% soft contact rate. He’s yielded only 1 home run and generates 56.5% ground balls.
Dakota Hudson, despite having notched some good outings lately, pales in comparison to today’s counterpart. He is a ground ball pitcher as well (60.1%) but fly balls leave the yard at a bad rate (25.7% HR/FB) and his 36K/22BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta’s good hitters should thrive against his 39.4% hard contact rate and the opportunities he should give them.
In general, these two offenses are on par but the Cardinals bullpen has the edge. The starting pitcher disparity is large enough to warrant a play on the road favorite. Momentum is real with these teams: Altanta is 8-2 in their last 10 and 4-1 on the road in that period, having won 3 games in a row. St. Louis is 3-7 in their last 10 and 1-3 at home. Streaks are made to be broken, but I love this pitching matchup today.
Texas Rangers @ LA Angels
Hold on Tight: Rangers +113
When you’re riding with the Texas bullpen, you’ve gotta hold on tight to your ticket. That probably makes this game a better F5 play for those who use that approach. Mike Minor has pitched relatively well for the Rangers, producing 19.4% soft contact and only 7 earned runs in his last 5 starts (31 IP). He’s been less effective in 2 of his last 3 starts, which is something to take into account though 1 of those outings was against Houston. The Rangers are on a 5-game winning streak and are 3-1 on the road in their last 10 games.
Tyler Skaggs’s current form is lackluster. He’s given up 3 or more runs in each of his last 3 starts. His low 33.3% ground ball rate is asking for trouble against a powerful Texas lineup. Granted, both teams are downgraded against left-handed pitching but the Rangers still have a power edge over the Angels. With Simmons out and the Angels on a 5-game losing streak, taking the dog makes sense despite the possibility for a Rangers bullpen meltdown.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Paying the Price: Twins RL -119
I won’t spend a lot on this one. Manny Banuelos sports a low 36% ground ball rate and an insanely-high 30.3% HR/FB rate. Guess what the Twins do best? Hit the ball hard and deep. Kyle Gibson is no stranger to hard contact either, but does a better job of producing ground balls (46.5%) despite a 20.5% HR/FB rate. The White Sox offense has been less productive lately so it is difficult to make the case they will exploit Gibson today. Both bullpens are in good shape with an edge to Chicago. They’ll most likely need everything they can get out of their relievers to stay in this one. The oddsmakers are tacking on a premium if you want to back the Twins, but I’ll bite on this one against Banuelos.
