There was a ton of MLB action all day Wednesday but I found myself only on 1 game: Texas +118. Shelby Miller gave up 4 in a nasty 4th inning and both bullpens were shaky after a long night prior to. The Rangers had a good chance to take the game but couldn’t seal the deal. Other than the Pirates offense producing a little more than I projected, the game flow was about right on with my expectations. Despite the loss, I feel very positive about where my handicapping is headed right now.
It’s prime time for putting in work in the MLB. Almost all day games on the getaway day short slate. 8 games on the board, 2 tickets in hand this morning…
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jon Gray looks to get out of Milwaukee with a split of the 4-game set. He continues his improvement as a major-league pitcher, getting the ground ball rate up to 52.6% this season and notching a pair of wins in his last 3 starts. Walks and home runs are his nemeses and were huge factors in his stumble at Atlanta last time out. Rockies relievers have been quite good this season in helping to close out games and limit late damage. Although Colorado had a couple low-scoring games in Milwaukee to start the series, they have been swinging good bats in the last couple weeks and the team’s record has started to turn around.
Christian Yelich appears to be out of the game again today. The Brewers have a very good lineup without him, but it is undeniable that this kid is a one-man wrecking crew. Their bullpen can be a liability at times despite some excellent arms in there. Freddy Peralta has a big problem serving up the long ball (5 homers in 17.2 IP) and has also been hurt by giving up too many free passes.
Whose offense is in a better position to take advantage of the other starter’s miscues? My money is behind Colorado. Gray has a better chance of pitching a cleaner game and the Rockies’ bats are trending in the right direction.
Road Dog Special: Rockies +108
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Brad Peacock’s movement between the bullpen and the rotation has him starting the fourth game of this series with his eyes set on leaving with a split. He’s been giving up fly balls but limiting damage from home runs, which is important against the Twins lineup. Houston’s success as a unit the last few years is well documented with consistent hitting and a top notch bullpen. Those factors are still present in 2019 and will give Minnesota another test today.
I backed Jose Berrios on Opening Day but have only been keeping an eye on him ever since. While he has electric stuff, he is susceptible to fly balls and big hits with his 35% ground ball rate. In his 3 starts at home he has fared better, giving up just 4 runs in 20.1 innings. It should be noted that 1 of those home starts was the opener against a weak Cleveland offense at that time. Berrios is good to yield 2 runs but is reliable enough to give the Twins at least 6 innings…which is very important because the relief unit is one of the most stressful bullpens in the majors.
What I like best about the Twins is they have the second most efficient scoring offense. So while they aren’t as consistent as the Astros in getting baserunners, they do a much better job in scoring runs. They are also in good form, winning 7 of their last 10 games overall and have gone 5-1 at home in that stretch.
