It’s been a full weekend in Charlotte, and now it’s race day! The Bank of America 400 at the Roval is the last race before four playoff contenders are cut from the field. We detailed how unique this track is in our race preview, as confirmed by the weekend practice runs. In a matter of hours, the green flag will drop so let’s dive into the BetCrushers final NASCAR handicapping at the Roval.
Drivers were all over the place this weekend as they tested their ability to negotiate the Roval’s twists and turns. William Byron topped Friday’s qualifying run and is the pole sitter for today’s Bank of America 400. He was also strong in the opening practice and Saturday’s runs. There’s a lot of room for error on this course and driving in traffic will be much different from the qualifying environment, though it appears that the #24 Chevy is going to be a factor today.
Revisiting the BetCrushers Contenders at the Roval
Due to the Roval’s infancy on the Cup Series circuit, we had to handicap this race differently from most others. The BetCrushers race preview let you into our thought process that arrived at a shortlist of contenders. With driver familiarity at this week’s track thrown out the window, we pinpointed high-level drivers who excel at road courses and are in good form. Here is our contender short list, as updated with insights from Friday’s and Saturday’s action:
Martin Truex, Jr.
The early favorite to win at the Roval qualified 8th and had the best lap time in the final practice yesterday. In a fluky course of events, Truex missed a shift and forced his team to change engines in the #19 Joe Gibbs Toyota. This puts him in the back of the pack to start the race today. We saw one book still have him as the +400 race favorite this morning. On the heels of this crucial development, Truex is a pass for us.
Kyle Busch
Qualifying 17th, Kyle did not lay down swift runs in Saturday’s practices. His five-lap averages were less than spectacular though you can never count the #18 Toyota out of any race. Is Kyle a dangerous under-the-radar guy at the Roval this afternoon? Perhaps…but we’re best served by leaving Kyle Busch alone this week.
Denny Hamlin
If there’s any indication of how wacky this race is going to be, even the highest-level racers like Denny Hamlin had trouble this weekend negotiating the Roval. He’ll race in his backup car after losing control in Turn 5 on Friday. Unfortunately, Denny qualified 28th in the #11 backup and will start at the back with his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr. He was strong in the backup car in Saturday’s early practice but is a stay-away for us given his starting position.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick worked out some kinks in the opening practice and notched a solid 6th-best qualifying run. Saturday’s dual practice sessions were also good for Kevin, as he appears to have a top-5 machine for the race. We had him pegged as a shoe-in for a Top 10 finish this week:
Harvick has been on a great Top-10 run, scoring eight such finishes in his last nine races. Three of those were outright wins. He squeezed his way into the Top 10 at the Roval last year and did the same in the Sonoma and Watkins Glen races this year. We have him rated highly at the Charlotte oval and could be a Top 10 contender. At +1540 to win, the Top 10 markets should have him at plus-money this weekend.
Kevin Harvick’s solid weekend knocked his odds to win down slightly, but our disappointment lies in the Top 10 markets. We see him at -200 to finish in the Top 10. That’s a lot of juice to lay on a wacky track.
Kevin Harvick (+130) to Top 5
Considering that the #4 Ford qualified 6th and worked out practice runs right in that neighborhood, playing him to finish better than that is risky. This is where Harvick’s racing experience trumps less-seasoned drivers’ fast practice showings. Plus-money on Kevin Harvick to finish in the Top 5 is a play.
Chase Elliott
Let’s not beat around the bush; we were very high on Chase before this weekend’s practices. He opened in the range of +800 to +880 to win the Bank of America 400, which we thought was a worthy play at a half-unit in our race preview:
Chase is in the slug of shortest-odds drivers on the early list for a reason: he is damn good on road courses. Despite an early exit from Sonoma due to a mechanical failure, Elliott has two Top 10 finishes there in his three other races. Oh, and he’s the defending back-to-back champion at Watkins Glen. And on top of that, Chase has 2nd and 4th place finishes at the Charlotte oval over the last three years.
Elliott had a good opening practice and then qualified 19th. This popped his odds to win up to +1600 but we laid low on adding to our position because of all the ground he must make up to get in the winner’s circle this afternoon. However, his great showing in both Saturday practices (4th and 1st five-lap averages) has pushed his odds to win back down to the +500 to +700 range.
Chase Elliott (-115) over Brad Keselowski
We booked this matchup play after publishing our race preview and before practice began. You have a pair of playoff drivers squaring off; one is on our shortlist of contenders, the other is not. Keselowski has a leg up on Elliott, starting eight spaces ahead of him. After digesting Saturday’s practices, we still stand behind Chase in this matchup against Brad. Chase has the road course chops and a fast machine, despite the disadvantage of starting in the middle of the pack.
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at the Roval
- Chase Elliott (+800) to win (1/2 unit)
- Chase Elliott (-115) over Brad Keselowski
- Kevin Harvick (+130) to Top 5
