It’s been one hell of a wait, but we’re a couple days away from green flag racing at the track that’s Too Tough to Tame. We’ve had more than enough time to dig into the pair of upcoming NASCAR Cup Series races and our betting card is just about filled. So buckle up for the BetCrushers’ final race handicapping with our Fades & Follows at Darlington.
A Long Time Coming
The UFC is gracing us with a series of fight nights, and now NASCAR takes their shot. They’re making up for lost time with a big second half to May. Along with two Xfinity and one truck series competitions, the big boys will run four races in the Carolinas. Only one of them will resemble a full-length Cup race, the Coke 600 on May 24th. Sunday’s 400-mile affair at Darlington is pretty close to the Southern 500, and there’s no doubt that we will take what we can get after two months without stock car racing. Here’s the upcoming slate and how to tune in:
Oh yeah, NASCAR dropped a little nugget on us Thursday evening. You read it right, that’s five more Cup races in four weeks. NASCAR is back, baby!
Tires, Stripes, and Ryan Blaney
Darlington’s 70th anniversary celebration may get derailed as the future of one of the season’s most celebrated races, the Southern 500, is uncertain at this point. South Carolina’s 1.37-mile paper clip-shaped track is notorious for its brutality on tires and quarter panels. The Lady in Black’s rough surface emphasizes shrewd driving to save tires and stay out of the wall. Kissing the wall and getting that “Darlington Stripe” goes with the territory when you’re racing on this unique track. For comparison, Sunday’s race features the 550-HP setup used at Las Vegas and Fontana earlier this season. Fontana’s rough surface is a trait shared with Darlington, although the similarities end there as this week’s venue is configured quite differently.
While we’re on the topic of rough surfaces and tire wear, I’ll bring up what was a sore subject a couple months ago: Ryan Blaney. Blaney has arguably been one of the best drivers this season but the results should be much better than his 6th place in the season standings. The late pit at Vegas, tire down at Fontana, and wreck at Phoenix have epitomized his 2020. So close, yet so far away. The #12 Ford Mustang has regularly been in contention, though the gods of rubber have not been kind. Did misfortune or mismanagement cause his tire troubles at Las Vegas and Fontana? Blaney’s team surely has this on their minds with Darlington’s rough asphalt looming.
I’ve put aside my betting misfires on Ryan Blaney and handicap him without prejudice. Ryan established a solid track record in just a few short years at Vegas, Fontana, and Phoenix. That’s why he has been a bet-on driver in 2020. If you believe this team is systemically rough on tires, fade him. Feel that he’s a victim of bad luck? Pick him up with a big payout like 25/1 to win. However, Blaney has not demonstrated a level of success on par with those early-season venues. His high water mark at Darlington is a 13th place finish in 2016 and 2019. He was right there in 2018 as well but has yet to break into the Top 10 here. There are too many indicators pointing against Ryan Blaney in this spot and the tire wear scenario is all too real for me to get involved.
Riding Shotgun with The Closer
There is a lot to like about Kevin Harvick at Darlington. Although “The Closer” has not won here since 2014, he’s finished in the Top 10 each year since 2013. Hell, all of those runs were Top 5s except for 2017’s 9th place effort. Let’s cut to the chase: we bet Harvick to make it seven out of eight Top 5 finishes at a price of -115. It can be easy to overthink things like this. There are no sure things in handicapping, but this is one of our favorite plays this week.
Our previous Darlington handicapping article dove into the state of Joe Gibbs Racing, highlighting a sharp matchup play from @NASCARstyleodds. My take on Kyle Busch pointed toward a driver rounding into form before the layoff, which is a scary thought considering he is the defending NASCAR Champion. Even so, Happy Harvick outraced Busch in five of the last seven races at Darlington, and three of four races this season. Note that these guys finished next to each other at Phoenix in March as well as the 2019 Southern 500, so don’t be surprised if these two are battling it out to the bitter end on Sunday. Although @NASCARstyleodds jumped on +130 early, our bet is Kevin Harvick +120 vs. Kyle Busch. +115 is still available and certainly worth a play.
An Overpriced MTJ
Fading Truex at Darlington makes sense in that he has missed the Top 10 eight times in 14 races. His 2016 win came between 9th- and 8th-place runs and he finished just outside the T10 in 2018 and 2019. Plus he’s still fighting inertia from this year’s poor start, with iffy performances at Las Vegas, Fontana, and Phoenix – all tracks where he should have been a Top 10 shoe-in.
NASCAR’s Return: Handicapping Who’s on the Move (BetCrushers.com – May 10, 2020)
I was sincerely shocked to see Truex open at +800 to win at Darlington. He still sits in the +750 to +850 range, but the secondary markets interest me the most. Specifically, how can I fade MTJ on Sunday? Truex has underperformed this year and finished inside the Top 5 at Darlington only once in the last seven years. It will cost you -155 to bet against a Top 5 finish this weekend, implying a 60.8% chance that he misses the mark. My number is 66.6%, so I’m laying -155 that Martin Truex, Jr. finishes no better than 6th place. I handicap at least six drivers with a better chance of spiking the Top 5, most likely leaving him on the outside looking in.
If you don’t have access to the Top 5 Yes/No markets, matchups are a solid way to fade Martin at The Lady in Black. We played Brad Keselowski -106 against MTJ in a pairing that seems backwards to me. In fact, Bookmaker has this as a -115 pick ’em that is still off in my estimation. It’s not like either one has consistently held the upper hand over the other at Darlington. Truex was better in 2012-2013 and 2015-2016; Kes was better in 2014-2015 and 2018-2019. If you believe in “trends”, Martin will top Brad in this one. If that has no relevance to you, consider how much better the #2 Ford Mustang has been this season. Outside of Daytona, Keselowski has finished at least nine positions better than Truex in each of the 2020 races.
The Chip Ganassi Chevys
Kyle Larson Out, Matt Kenseth In
Our “NASCAR is back” piece featured the return of respected vet Matt Kenseth out of retirement and into the #42 Camaro. He’s rusty and driving a Chevrolet for the first time at the Cup Series level. Even my wife recognizes the amount of changes these cars have undergone since his last full year of racing in 2018. So why did I play Kenseth at -115 vs. William Byron? My roundabout logic supporting a shot on the former retiree is detailed in the earlier article. The triangle between Matt Kenseth, Erik Jones, and Kyle Larson has a strong connection to Darlington. Any relevance to the #42 car’s performance this weekend will play out soon enough.
This Kenseth/Byron matchup piqued my interest as more of a play against Byron, who finished 35th and 21st in his two Darlington runs. William was shaping up right before NASCAR’s hiatus, finishing 15th at Fontana and 10th at Phoenix. Digging into his work at those two tracks, you‘ll see that was his third 15th place finish at Fontana in as many tries. The 10th at Phoenix? This was in range of his expected finish. Even if Byron improves on his past Darlington efforts, a reasonable range is 15th-20th. I asked if Kenseth was bettable in the early article, and this is certainly debatable. The price is much more favorable if you want to back him in this matchup now. Play Kenseth at your own risk, though I still contend the Byron matchup is the best way to go if you do.
Don’t Forget About Kurt
JJ’s Farewell Tour gets two more chances to score a big finish at Darlington. The seven-time NASCAR Champion has exceeded expectations so far this season, though he was outraced by Kurt in the Fontana and Phoenix races. Furthermore, the #48 Chevrolet hasn’t seen the Top 10 at Darlington since 2014. I will not be surprised if both of these Camaros post single-digit finishes on Sunday but I handicap Kurt Busch with a firm edge over Jimmie Johnson at Darlington. Outside of his accident in 2016, Kurt found his way to a finish no worse than 7th place despite driving for two teams and two manufacturers in that stretch.
NASCAR’s Return: Handicapping Who’s on the Move (BetCrushers.com – May 10, 2020)
Kurt Busch against Jimmie Johnson looks to be a tight matchup, and most likely will be. Has JJ meshed well enough with Crew Chief Cliff Daniels to make one last title run? The magic of his farewell tour could very well be something, but I’m a Kurt Busch guy in spots and this is one of them. I looked to supplement my Kurt -105 bet vs. Jimmie with a Top 10 shot at even-money or better. Unfortunately, I have not found anything better than -118 so that’s probably a pass unless conditions in the Top 10 markets improve.
Want More?
One thing’s for sure: the upcoming barrage of live NASCAR Cup Series racing will be a sight for sore eyes. After Sunday’s race comes a short, 200-mile run at Darlington. Make sure not to miss our handicap for Tuesday’s sprint at The Lady in Black by following us on Twitter or subscribing below:
