Yesterday, my guys on the BetCrushers team said they don’t subscribe to the “this game’s a lock” mentality but that we would all be disappointed if the 2 tickets didn’t cash. Well, they didn’t cash. So consider me very disappointed. An 0-2 night shaved 2.1 units off the bankroll and dropped this week to only 0.62 units of profit.
Homer Bailey was a prime candidate for a fade, especially coming off of his 7-inning gem against Cleveland. He followed that performance up with another one, keeping the Yankees in check. The Royals offense did enough to give him a cushion, then broke it open when the game went to NY’s bullpen.
Zach Davies pitched a solid game and got out of a few jams, keeping the Dodgers in check for 5 innings. Enter Matt Albers and his gas can in the 6th…and boom, 2 homers to give the boys from LA a 3-0 lead that they never surrendered. The fade in this one was against Julio Urias, who had been sloppy this season but did a complete 180 by dominating the Brewers. Not sure if this was more about his prowess or what appeared to be an uninspired Milwaukee group of hitters.
My takeaway on yesterday’s plays are simple. The Yankees still have a raw lineup due to injuries and it can be difficult to count on them to consistently produce. More importantly, Homer Bailey has to be handicapped without any bias of prior years. As for the Brewers wager, I would absolutely positively take them at +110 again if this was Groundhog Day. Other than LA’s 4-game win streak, nearly every other indicator was in Milwaukee’s favor. I grabbed a number that was almost 25 points better than the closing number, which is “good value” but if it doesn’t pay if they don’t. That’s the bottom line.
Like my BetCrushers boys said in a Twitter conversation yesterday, you play the percentages but sometimes the percentages play you. Handicap solidly, make good bets, and let them play out. Full slate of games out there on Good Friday, and it’s been a productive morning sniping some good ones…
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Merrill Kelly and the D-backs head north from Atlanta to Wrigley, bringing a 4-game winning streak with them after sweeping the Braves. Kelly stumbled in his last start against the Padres but had a pair of quality starts prior to that. He has a decent ground ball rate that could be helpful if the winds are blowing out (unknown at the time of publishing). He’s given up a homer in each of his 3 starts, though he has generally been able to keep runners off the bases in the 2 good outings.
The Cubs oppose Kelly with Kyle Hendricks, who settled down in his last start after a couple rough ones. He is 0-3, in part because he has not been able to get past the 5th inning. Chicago is fresh off of a sweep in Miami and looks to improve on their 3-2 home record. They have modest edges in offense and bullpen metrics, but I see value on the dog this afternoon. I have this being close to a coin flip due to the starting pitchers so give me the plus-money opportunity.
WAGER: Diamondbacks +147
NY Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals
Jason Vargas is the man that the Mets have called upon to get this team back on track. Jacob deGrom gets bumped from his start and Vargas is there to fill in. The only bad thing is that Vargas has been downright terrible this year. He gives up a lot of fly balls and the Cardinals love them. St. Louis is #6 in home runs and #7 in slugging. This can be problematic because the Mets bullpen is less than reliable in case Vargas gets bounced quickly.
Reliable Adam Wainwright comes off of 2 very good starts in which he used his veteran savvy to minimize damage. He induces ground balls at a productive rate and should get run support tonight. The Redbirds are 5-2 at home and have a strong crowd to play in front of. Both lineups have pop but only one of the starters is apt to mitigate this strength of the opposing batters.
WAGER: Cardinals RL +130
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
The Giants’ road trip continues in Pittsburgh with former All-Star Madison Bumgarner on the hill. He has pitched solidly this year other than a 5-run outing against the Padres. Madison has the ability to go deep in this game against an offense similar to his own. Lyles has been quite good in his 2 starts this season, punctuated by an excellent start at the Cubs. No need to drag this one out too much since it looks like Mother Nature may postpone this matchup. But with many things appearing equal, give me the home squad that is on a 3-game winning streak inside of a 7-3 run that included a series win at Washington.
WAGER: Pirates -109
Kansas City Royals @ NY Yankees
Jacob Junis intends follow Homer Bailey’s blueprint from yesterday and shut down the Yankees. Unfortunately for him, he gives up more hits and runs than his offense can typically support. KC has won 2 in a row but they still have a glaring weakness in their bullpen. The Yankees must get to Junis early and exploit it to provide C.C. Sabathia a lead for their strong bullpen to keep. He had a good opener against Cleveland and could replicate a solid 5 innings tonight as well. The Royals are scrappy and the Yankees are hit-or-miss. Yesterday was a miss and I’m going back to this well looking for a hit. Call me stubborn…
WAGER: Yankees RL +105
Seattle Mariners @ LA Angels
Talk about skating on thin ice, this game is just that after last night’s crazy 11-10 game. Both teams are on a slide but Seattle was able to notch a much-needed win to stop the bleeding. Marco Gonzales has pitched well this season, including a deep start on April 2nd against the Angels. Felix Pena had a great outing against the Brewers but is a fly ball pitcher that could be exploited by the Mariners, assuming that their hitters haven’t totally hit the skids. The Angels hold a slight edge with their bullpen but their offense has a bad split against lefties. Marco could go deep again tonight.
