As you can see from the header post, it’s deja vu all over again. After last night’s late-inning blowout of the Mets, the price to back Atlanta continues to balloon as they continue their hot streak. Oh wait, they’re the dog tonight? More on that later.
Atlanta’s convincing 12-3 win starts this week off right with a solo shot that brought in +1.1 units from the manufactured -1 run line. Soroka was not excellent but was just better enough than Wheeler to earn the win. More importantly, the Braves got to the New York bullpen and the rest was history.
Not much to unpack from last night’s play, so let’s get after it today…
NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Home Dog: Braves +104
Although this price has ticked up yet again since I booked it, I am thrilled to get plus money with the Braves tonight. Atlanta is on a 10-1 run that includes a 7-1 mark at home, while the Mets sink to a 1-4 record in their last 5 games. Jacob deGrom is clearly superior to last night’s starter, Zack Wheeler. However, he is lined up against a guy that can hold his own in Julio Teheran.
Teheran has been lights out since May. He’s given up no more than 1 run in each of his last 8 starts after April, yet has notched only 3 wins. Over 44.2 innings in those 8 starts, he’s given up 4 earned runs and no home runs, and has a 0.96 WHIP and a .169 BABIP. Oddly enough, he’s yielded more walks (22) than hits (21) but the lack of homers helps mitigate those free passes. The thing that “concerns” me about this brilliant run is the big discrepancy between his 0.81 ERA and 5.43 xFIP.
deGrom has been in great form recently as well. In his last 5 starts, he’s given up only 8 earned runs and 3 home runs with a 1.04 WHIP. A 35 K/6 BB ratio and .226 AVG help balance out a .299 BABIP. It would be foolish to overlook the fact that he could very well frustrate the Atlanta hitters tonight.
The Bullpen Imbalance
I won’t belabor the details I shared in yesterday’s feature on these two teams. Atlanta’s offense is clearly humming along, almost on the same track as Minnesota’s was last month. All good things come to an end at some point. Until they prove otherwise, you must assume that the Braves will continue their consistency at the plate.
Both starting pitchers should have success tonight. This has the makings of a duel that could go into the 6th inning or later. It’s what happens from there that pushes me to the Atlanta side. Despite Luke Jackson most likely getting into the game for Atlanta (I’m ready to live-bet a tight game late against him), I think that the Braves have a strong late-game advantage and should pull out the win.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Buck the Trend: Diamondbacks RL (-1) -144 ML/+135 RL
The Rockies had the Diamondbacks’ number when they visited Denver in late May, sweeping them 4-0. Arizona is 14-16 at home this season, including a lowly 3-7 against NL West foes. Regardless of these trends, I’m on Arizona tonight with conviction.
Arizona’s offense can go toe-to-toe with Colorado’s and they have a decent matchup against Antonio Senzatela. He’s pitched some very good games this season but otherwise struggles with walks (35 K/29 BB). Senzatela is predominantly a ground ball pitcher (50.7%) that can get in trouble when he is hit with hard contact. Arizona has a lineup that can smack the ball around.
Apologies to Merrill
To be honest, I had given up on backing Merrill Kelly in May after losing a few wagers behind him. His instability may have given way in June, as he’s ripped off 3 straight winning starts in 3 attempts. Over 22.1 innings, Kelly has given up 2 earned runs on 2 homers and only 12 hits. His 18 K/2 BB ratio is very impressive, as is his .175 BABIP and 37.3% hard contact ratio. Not only is he keeping guys from hitting him, batters aren’t doing much when they do hit him.
The D-backs are fresh off of a successful road trip where they went 7-3 despite a butt whoopin’ to finish off the series in Washington. Arizona holds an advantage with their bullpen, especially if you factor in what Colorado’s relievers did in 2 games against San Diego this weekend. Words cannot express how terrible those performances were. Senzatela could throw one of his gems out of the blue and Kelly could go back to being unpredictable, but I’ll stick to my handicapping and get behind Kelly and a confident Arizona club tonight.
