The Orioles proved to be an unlikely hero for me last night, amazingly winning both the F5 and full game underdog wagers against the Giants. A wacky 1st inning saw the Giants put up 5 in their half and the Orioles with 6 in the bottom. You could call it a miracle that the Baltimore bullpen gave up 0 runs in 4 innings after Cashner stiffened up and led his team through a much quieter 2nd through 5th innings.
Friday was a day where I had to do some wagering on the fly since Thursday’s Yankees ticket was cancelled due to rain. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, this game was not on the board during my typical early morning handicapping and publishing period. Indications were that this would open with Yankees as the favorite, which was a no-go for me. However, I was able to grab them at +125 (unfortunately less than Thursday’s +147 price). Transparency is a huge issue with online handicapping so I have included a screen shot of one of my accounts confirming the Yankees wager. We don’t sell picks but it is important for our readers to know that our free picks and analysis truly reflect what our money is behind (hot streaks or cold stretches regardless).
That being said, the Yankees did not disappoint. Happ stymied the Sox while the New York hitters did plenty to scratch out a 4-1 win over their AL East rival. A 3-0 day stops the bleeding of a rough week and returns +3.49 units back to the bankroll. Week 9 is still down at -4.12 units on a 5-9 record. This is my second cold streak on the 2019 season (-4.49 units overall) and probably won’t be the last. It’s all about the net over the six-month season and it’s time to gain some positive momentum.
June is here and we see a fresh slate of opportunities. A few games are off the board as of 8:00 a.m. eastern, but here’s where our money is on this big Saturday:
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves
Lock it Down: Braves RL -115
Mike Soroka is a guy that I have no issue laying money on, especially against a sketchy Detroit offense. Although he has an amazing 1.07 ERA, I’ve shaved down some of his metrics to factor in an inevitable backslide from this lofty position. A 3.69 xFIP suggests that he will give up runs at a higher pace than what he’s shown to date. However, I doubt there will be a huge regression against the Tigers this afternoon.
Soroka has a great 23.5% soft contact rate, 57.5% ground ball rate, and strong 46 K/15 BB ratio to go along with a 0.89 WHIP. The Braves hitters have been scuffling a bit lately but always have the potential to get theirs with professional hitters like Freddy Freeman and Nick Markakis in the lineup. They square off against Daniel Norris, who has been slightly less effective than he was early in the season. In his last four outings, he’s given up 5 home runs and 12 runs over 23.1 innings. His 13.7% soft contact and 41.8% ground ball rates are significantly worse than Soroka’s.
The Tigers’ recent winning ways do not go unnoticed. They’ve won 3 in a row, while the Braves have lost 3 in a row. Detroit thumped them last night and the Braves haven’t scored more than 4 runs in their last 5 games. 4 runs could do the trick today with Soroka possibly stretching to 7 innings and sparing the Atlanta bullpen. Detroit’s bullpen has been slightly better at reducing opportunities, but they are still a volatile unit that can give up runs easily. The run line may be a tough cover, but I cannot lay -248 to get behind Soroka.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
Get to the Bullpen: Reds RL (-1) -127 ML/+150 RL
Erick Fedde has been a tough nut to crack in his last 2 starts, giving up 1 run over 10 innings. He doesn’t give hitters much in the way of solid contact with 51.7% ground ball and 26.7% hard contact rates. Fedde has shown promise for the Nats but has struggled with injuries through the years. Is Washington willing to stretch him out longer than 5 innings today against a hot Cincinnati offense? The 2.18 ERA/5.10 xFIP discrepancy leads me to believe that he can be touched up if the Reds continue to swing the bats well this afternoon.
Former National Tanner Roark has a chance to get one on his old club today. The Nats have been a boom-or-bust offense lately, though one could argue that it’s been more boom with Rendon and Soto hitting well. Roark has yielded only 2 home runs in 56.1 innings despite a very low 33.8% ground ball rate. A decent 13.2% hard contact rate may have something to do with that. He is also likely to be a 5-inning guy today, especially if Washington’s offense is clicking.
This game has the makings of a grind that will be decided by the bullpens. Both teams did not use their valuable arms yesterday and come off of a day of rest Thursday. However, there is a massive gap between these two relief units at near-full strength and a big advantage goes to the Reds. When it comes to offense, Washington has scored 9 or more runs in 3 of their last 7 games. Cincinnati has scored less than 5 runs only once in their last 9 games. Should be an interesting one, but I am fading the Nationals bullpen hard in Cincy today with a gamble on a manufactured -1 run line.
NY Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
In Greinke We Trust: Diamondbacks -105
The oddsmakers essentially have this as a coin flip game with two aces on the mound tonight. Jacob deGrom aims to outduel Zack Greinke and tame this solid Diamondbacks offense. He’s been slightly less reliable on the road this season and has not gone past 6 innings pitched in his last 3 outings. Though the Arizona bullpen is not top tier, the Mets relievers have not done their team justice by blowing late-game leads. deGrom’s .315 BABIP and 44.7% hard contact rate on the road tells me he’s been getting hit pretty well and the D-backs can capitalize if they are able to break out of a minor slump.
deGrom (77K, 18 BB, 9 HR in 63.0 innings) and Greinke (73 K, 11 BB, 10 HR in 77.2 innings) share some things in common this season. However, Greinke has a lower 32.9% hard contact rate and has gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 9 starts. This has the potential to put his scuffling bullpen in a better position to squeeze out the late win if the Arizona hitters can do their part. The Diamondbacks have been in a slump since sweeping the Giants, losing 4 of their last 5 games by a single run. I am fully aware of their recent near-misses, as I rode with them for 2 extra-innings, one-run losses in Colorado. I may get snake bitten here again tonight, but I’m behind Greinke and the D-backs yet again.
