So I made no progress on my run line bet approach research last night. And the way this week’s work schedule looks, this project may end up taking place on my flight down to BetCrushers HQ Friday evening. What better way to spend a couple hours on a plane than crunching MLB betting records to better implement my handicapping? I am very happy to have a full transition of this daily article series from this ad-laden blog to the BetCrushers.com site this weekend.
Tuesday’s play on the Oakland A’s had a shaky start. Bassitt got into a huge jam after giving up a leadoff homer but was able to right the ship and avoid any more runs. The damage was done, however, as he ran his pitch count up on his way to an early exit in the 4th inning. Oakland’s bullpen locked the game down with 5.1 innings of 1-hit dominance. As expected, Bauer was less than sharp but he fought through his struggles with 123 pitches over 6 innings.
A tight Oakland win yields +1.29 units and offsets Monday’s 1-unit loss. May continues to be a steady upward climb out of April’s early hole. We’ve got a full day of MLB games on tap today and I’ve booked a pair of plays taking place in California…
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Taking the Dog Money: Diamondbacks +120
Neither of these teams had much momentum coming into this series, but San Diego is now rolling as they have squeezed out a pair of 1-run wins and threaten an sweep in this divisional matchup. The starters in this game have a lot of similarities and I handicap them essentially as equals, except that Merrill Kelly is slightly more efficient in preventing run conversion. Both bullpens are working effectively, though the Padres’ long relief may be challenged more than Arizona’s unit.
With my money on the Diamondbacks, I don’t like to see them on a 4-game losing streak and was inclined to pass on this game. However, the last 3 losses have been 1-run games and Arizona is still a solid 14-11 on the road for the season. Arizona’s offense is generally more consistent and has more power than San Diego’s. Other than home field advantage, I give slight edges to the Diamondbacks for all phases except starting pitching (a wash) and the back-end of the bullpen. My game flow model points slightly towards Arizona, so put me on the dog.
Minnesota Twins @ LA Angels
Easy Lay: Twins -117
If you’ve followed these articles from time to time, you probably know how little I like to lay juice (cutting off some good opportunities at times). In tonight’s Twins/Angels game, I was willing to go up to -130 based on what my handicapping says. And no, it’s not an auto-fade on Matt Harvey. After all, he’s been anything but terrible recently. Harvey’s big problem is not going deep into the game though this is less of a concern with a great bullpen waiting to pick up the slack.
He is opposed by Martin Perez, who has been very good this season. At times, walks can be an issue but he’s effectively reduced run conversion and has held opponents to only 17 ER in 52 innings. His 2.89 ERA / 4.15 xFIP combination causes me to buffer his performance to a degree, especially with many of his outings coming against weak lineups. An exception to this was a great 0-run, 8-inning start against Houston on May 1st.
Both clubs have good-hitting lineups but Minnesota’s power and run-scoring efficiency are head-and-shoulders above LA’s. Harvey’s 9.8% soft contact rate leaves a lot of meat on the bone for the Twins hitters, while Perez’s 18.8% soft contact rate matches up better against an Angels team that is not hitting with brute strength lately. Both bullpens are highly effective, so the Twins will need to get to Harvey early and often to avoid needing a late-game charge to get the win. The pitching discrepancy is enough to back Minnesota and their power is just icing on the cake.
