Handicapping bullpens can truly be a “playing the percentages” part of the game. Whether this is more evident in the MLB these days as compared to the past, I do not know and frankly don’t have any interest in researching. Consistently good, consistently bad, or downright volatile relief units can be modeled but you have to be willing to accept when things don’t go according to plan.
The Dodgers 5-2 loss to the Nationals last night is a perfect example. Buehler and Scherzer faced off for 7 great innings of baseball. The only scoring through 7 came via a Justin Turner 2-run homer in the 3rd. All of the excitement came in the top of the 8th when the Dodgers bullpen could not get crucial outs when they were needed most. Granted, none of the 5 runs were earned since Turner threw a critical double play throw into right field and then it spiraled downward from there. LA’s relievers got 2 strikes on several Washington hitters but could not finish them off. Props to a slumping Nationals lineup who did not give in.
When it comes to bullpens, the Dodgers have one of the most “interesting” ones in the MLB. They do a great job of minimizing hits and baserunners, but are one of the easiest to convert runs on. In general, they are fairly reliable but when things go bad they go really bad. Last night was such an example. You play the percentages that they will hold it down the vast majority of the time but must accept failures like this one.
On the other hand, part of the rationale behind yesterday’s Red Sox play was that Felix Hernandez would last for a limited time. Once he was bounced, one of the worst bullpens in the MLB would be exposed to a Boston lineup that has been on fire. Seattle’s relief unit lets so many baserunners on and allows scoring very easily. Despite an early assault by their offense, the Red Sox answered and got to the Mariners’ pen in the 3rd inning. Consider it over at that point…and it was. In this case, Seattle’s bullpen was quite reliable in giving up a big cushion to Boston.
Saturday ended in a 1-1 split that shaved 0.20 units off the bankroll. The week rolls into Sunday at 10-7 for a net of +3.25 units. Time to finish strong and get into week 7 closer to my expected season-long pace. Looks like a big line of rain will put a damper on games in Boston, New York, and Baltimore so the slate is effectively reduced. But there’s plenty of opportunity in the leftovers…
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Detroit squeezed out a rare win in the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader and interrupted Minnesota’s 4-game winning streak. Daniel Norris comes into today’s game off of a few lackluster performances, though his impact on the game is less important because he is a 5-inning guy. The Detroit bullpen has degraded as the season has gone on and will be exposed to a powerful, good-hitting Twins team. Home runs are not an issue for Norris but giving up hits and walks are. Despite playing in a doubleheader yesterday, the Tigers bullpen should be at full strength since they used a long reliever for 4 innings in the second game.
Martin Perez has been a beast since entering the rotation. He has gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 5 starts and gave up more than 1 run in only once in that stretch. Detroit has one of the least effective and least powerful offenses in the league so I expect him to shine yet again today. Minnesota’s bullpen has really settled down lately and should be able to finish the last few innings strong. Perez should ideally go 7 innings and spare his relievers that put in 6 innings in yesterday’s games.
There’s no shame in backing the club with the best winning percentage in the MLB. Minnesota is on a nice 7-3 run that includes a 3-1 mark at home. Laying the -185 is a no-go for me so I’ll be on the run line again. The run line has gone 6-0 since I put it on probation and narrowed its use down to games where I’ve handicapped the largest differential between teams like this one.
Strike While They’re Hot: Twins RL -105
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
The Reds are in line for a series sweep but they’ve gotta get through MadBum this afternoon to return home with great momentum. Bumgarner has been solid this season, though not dominant. The strikeouts are there and so are the hits. The Giants bullpen has not pitched to its early-season success as of late and may need to log 3 innings of shutdown work to keep an improving Cincinnati offense in check.
Tyler Mahle is no stranger to road starts; his last 5 outings have been away from Cincy and his current form is improving. Though it’s a stretch to expect him to go much further than the 5th inning, a solid performance is not too much to ask. I dialed expectations on him down a bit because he was banged around by St. Louis, San Diego, and Los Angeles before his last 2 starts. A quality 5-inning start should suffice because the Reds bullpen has been very good and reliable recently as well as throughout the entire season. This could be a tight one but my money is on the Reds getting the sweep and extending their win streak to 4.
