Monday’s pair of games reverses the 0-2 Sunday and brings in +2.13 units on a couple of short home dogs. As expected, we got a great pitchers’ duel in San Diego that featured deGrom and Paddack, the latter of whom struck out 11 over 7.2 innings. The Mets’ offense struggled while the Padres did just enough to score and hold onto the lead. The Nats and Brewers played a nip-and-tuck game despite Washington’s 4 errors and Milwaukee’s 11 hits. Winners are good.
Keep an eye on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who left Coors Field Sunday for a series at Tampa Bay. The Rocky Mountain Hangover is 4-0 against visiting teams leaving Colorado and they’re the 5th team to do so this season. In 2018, the Hangover was essentially irrelevant but is an interesting phenomenon this year.
After 5 days of betting 2 games in each day, Tuesday is a break out with 5 plays. With so much going on, let’s not waste any time…
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Nola has been quite good lately, giving up only 1 run in each of his last 2 starts. He’ll need to be sharp to battle a Cardinals team that is tough at home and playing angry after being swept by the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to say whether his .356 BABIP is an indicator of unluckiness or if he is getting hit hard when batters get a hold of his pitches. The Philly offense has had trouble consistently getting runners on base but are up against a softer opponent on the mound tonight.
Dakota Hudson is a difficult guy to put money behind, although he did have a nice outing against Washington after a rough 3-start stretch. He’s given up 8 home runs in 3 bad starts but otherwise has a solid 56% ground ball rate. Handicapping Hudson is not easy given the extremes that he may end up on tonight. What I like here is the Cardinals team as a whole, especially at home. They got swept by their NL Central rival at Wrigley, otherwise they are 6-1 in their last 10 games including 3-0 at home in that stretch.
Hot at Home: Cardinals +109
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
MadBum leads the Giants out of Cincinnati to the Rocky Mountains for an NL West showdown. The Giants’ bats came alive by the Ohio River…was this a fluke or can they keep them hot against the Rockies’ rolling offense? Bumgarner has been hit-or-miss this season and his 37% ground ball rate could be trouble at Coors Field against Arenado & Co.
It’s difficult to expect Senzatela to be great tonight, and I don’t need him to be. He just needs to keep the game under control and let the Colorado offense keep taking their rips. They got a much-needed day of rest after a grueling series against Arizona. I think this is a good spot for the Rockies who have gotten to where we expect their offense to be and they actually have the support of a solid bullpen.
Home and Rested: Rockies -105
Seattle Mariners @ NY Yankees
The Seattle scorching hot start has certainly cooled off. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 games and face a Yankees team that continues to win despite a laundry list of guys on the IL. They have a solid pitcher in Marco Gonzales going for them at Yankee Stadium. He’s pitched quite well this season except for a hiccup in his last outing. Unfortunately, the Seattle offense has really slowed down to a grinding halt. Their early-season calling card was success on the road but they’re only 1-3 in their last 4 road games.
Masahiro Tanaka’s nemesis this year has been giving up the long ball. He has the potential to have a successful outing against a slumping offense but must be careful not to serve up too many to the short porch. The Yankees are quite happy to have gotten some of their pieces back in the lineup and will need them to produce tonight and support Tanaka. New York is 3-1 at home in the last 10 game stretch and should continue to hold court against a slumping Mariners team if Tanaka stays in control.
Play the Slump: Yankees RL +130
Quick Hits:
Texas has a chance to jump out early against Steven Brault, who is coming out of the pen to make a start for the Pirates tonight. Adrian Sampson has done a respectable job for the Rangers, including 0 runs over 5.2 innings against the Pirates last week at home. Neither team has much momentum in either direction, and both of these bullpen units can make the game interesting late. This one could very well come down to whose bullpen chokes harder than the other.
Try Not to Watch: Rangers +123
Cincinnati and young phenom Nick Senzel head west to Oakland to square off against Mike Fiers, who seems to have eased up on being a hot mess lately. I’ve been a big advocate of fading Fiers this season and am going back to that well with a streaky Reds offense behind Tyler Mahle, who has the potential for a disastrous outing as well. The Reds should have some confidence coming into tonight’s game against an Oakland club who has gone 2-8 in their last 10 games, as long as the plane ride didn’t cool off their bats.
