At least there’s the Twins. Their 8-1 dismantling of the White Sox easily covered the run line and provided the lone W yesterday. Cincinnati gave it a good run as a +137 dog but fell short as the game got late. Rangers/Angels was a pitchers duel that went down to the bitter end. Then you’ve got the Braves who…well, let’s just put it this way, spoiled a great start from Soroka with a nightmare 8th inning.
Sad to say, but the 1-3 Saturday puts my season net into the red for the first time in several weeks. May continues to be positive, but the next few days need to be solid to keep it that way. I can’t hide from a loose-betting April so it’s just a matter of continuing to grind for 4 more months. Let’s get right after it on this early MLB slate…
San Diego Padres @ Toronto Blue Jays
Paddack: Padres -129
I try to be objective when handicapping these MLB games. When I see Chris Paddack listed on the card my tendency is to ask, “What’s the price?” He squares off against Marcus Stroman, whose numbers are not half bad. His 2.81 ERA is very good and 57.4% GB rate is excellent. Stroman gives the Blue Jays about 6 innings per game and has yielded only 20 earned runs, yet he’s been on the mound for 7 more unearned runs. His downside is issuing walks and he has not been given much run support at all. Toronto is 1-5 in their last 6 home games and has lost 4 in a row.
Paddack is a young ace who has earned bettors’ support with a stifling 0.76 WHIP, 56 strikeouts in 51.1 innings, and only 4 home runs. He has given up more than 1 walk in a game only once this season and has lost once in his last 5 starts (at LA). The Padres have a slight offensive edge as both teams have exhibited a little more pop lately. Toronto’s bullpen has been roughed up in the recent weeks, while San Diego’s relievers have improved considerably and are anchored by the league’s best closer, Kirby Yates. I’ll gladly lay -129 with Paddack and Yates against Toronto.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Hit ‘Em While They’re Down: Diamondbacks -116
Have the Arizona hitters found their mojo again? They face off against Shaun Anderson, whose body of work is limited. We do know that he’s only made it through 5 innings in both starts, which should put stress on a declining bullpen that has pitched 11.1 innings in the last 2 games. Anderson has given up only 4 runs in those starts but it’s the duration that you have to be cognizant of. When this one goes to a worn out bullpen, all hell could break loose yet again.
Luke Weaver has been a steady arm in the Diamondbacks rotation, and I expect a decent outing from him today. His 43% hard contact rate is concerning but less so against the Giants in their park. I did not let Arizona’s 28 runs in the last two games skew my handicapping too much, though it does tell me that the Diamondbacks still have the ability to get baserunners and generate runs. This is another good situation for them to build some momentum as they head to Coors Field next. The Giants will try to snap out of a 4-game losing streak but all signs point to it being extended instead.
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros
In Verlander We Trust: Astros RL +110
This has been quite the series so far, as Houston has taken the first two games 4-3. Eduardo Rodriguez has the task of salvaging the series before they return home to face the Indians. Rodriguez has had a tough time lately, giving up 11 runs over 11 innings in his last 2 starts. He is a high-K guy (61) who has been able to limit hard contact (27%). The big issue with this matchup is that the Astros are an excellent hitting team and Eduardo has given up 61 hits in 54.2 innings pitched. The Sox’ hot streak has cooled down a bit, as they’ve gone 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Justin Verlander’s production has been top notch this season. With a 0.73 WHIP, he’s limited damage from the 12 home runs hit off of him on his way to an 8-1 record. Verlander has yielded 0 or 1 runs in 7 of his last 8 starts and gives the Astros anywhere from 6-8 innings per outing. His 36.2% ground ball rate is less than ideal but all of those strikeouts keep things in check. Despite George Springer being out, you’ve gotta love the professional hitters on this team. They do not get cheated and are patient enough to wait for their pitches. This could be trouble for Rodriguez in the form of walks and efficient small ball.
My big concern is covering the run line, but I’ll take the shot at +110 in lieu of laying -180 to get Verlander and the Astros. Could be dicey, but the risk is worth it with Rodriguez on the mound. The pitching advantage plus a shutdown bullpen require the Astros to get out early and lock the game down.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
I Am the Public: Twins RL -150
Smart money, public money, wasted money, won money. With the Twins right now, it’s all about the price and damn it’s high! But I’m still in on these guys until they begin to falter, which is inevitable. It’s not a blind play, though there isn’t much in my philosophy that supports playing such a high price on the run line. Handicapping this game earned it one of my highest team differentials yet this season.
Dylan Covey gives up runs. Period. In 20.1 innings, he’s yielded 16 hits, 16 walks, 4 home runs, and 14 runs (12 earned). All this has been done with a low .182 BABIP, which tells me that he gives the other teams a ton of opportunities to tee off. When you look at that and his 34.8% ground ball rate, don’t you get the feeling that the Twins will have no problem continuing their offensive onslaught on the MLB?
Jake Odorizzi has been top shelf for the Twins this season, though it is reasonable to expect some regression in the near future. He’s let up 0 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, but can be prone to walking batters. A low 27.1% ground ball rate with 38.1% hard contact is concerning. Put it in context, though, and this pales in comparison to the damage I expect the Twins to do the Covey this afternoon. I could be falling prey to the hype, but these guys have been making money. You’ve certainly gotta pay to play these days though!
