We cracked a six pack of plays Saturday and I’ve gotta tell you, somebody must have shaken those cans up really good. The Yankees waited until the 7th inning to break a scoreless deadlock and eventually cover the +105 run line. But the second slug of games saw a stellar outing from Chris Archer get submarined by a couple of Washington solo shots in the 8th. Props to Anibal Sanchez with a great outing for the Nats, contrary to my line of thought. To top it off, my Twins run line ticket went up in flames when they failed to get a run home with bases loaded and no outs in the 7th.
The Phillies run line bet got blown out as Caleb Smith pitched 6 scoreless, 1-hit innings. And in one of the craziest games of the day, the Braves finally managed to put the hammer down on the Mets. The starters were gone before the bottom of the 2nd inning and they were all square at 4-4. My game notes underlined a strong fade against Vargas and that Newcomb was susceptible to losing command of his pitches. Fortunately, the Mets bullpen wasn’t up to the task and the +150 run line payoff helped take the financial edge off of some of the day’s losses. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks could not take advantage of two late rallies and left 10 on base, so that loss made the difference on the day. Those are the breaks.
Speaking of a wild day in baseball, take a look at Homer Bailey and his performance for the Royals. 7 innings of scoreless ball on 2 hits led them to a 3-0 victory over the Indians…one day after they held the Tribe to a single run. Earlier that day, the O’s take down the Sox in Boston 9-5. Those losing teams are their divisions’ royalty, and the victors are the alleged bottom feeders.
Betting the MLB is a game of percentages and it rewards getting the right price more often than not. The Royals are going to win 60 games this season. The Orioles are going to win 60 games this season. Many bettors have busted out not understanding the role of percentages and odds. It’s not a point-spread game where you’re on one side of the number; it’s a percentage game. Don’t overpay for your favorites and get the most you can from your dogs.
Today I’d settle for less excitement and more winning. The 2-4 Saturday prolongs the slump, shedding 1.5 units and bringing the season net to -7.5 units. Nothing short of ugly, but within the tolerances I can withstand from both a bankroll and a mental standpoint. It’s kind of like a veteran .300 hitter in a slump…sometimes you’re hitting the ball squarely but right at the defenders. I’ll keep taking my cracks at the ball and it should work itself out.
Enough of the pep talk, let’s see what we can find on the card today…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
A pair of aces takes the mound this afternoon in D.C. Jameson Taillon looks to give the Pirates a series win on the road, while Max Scherzer wants to exert his dominance for the home crowd. Taillon has a strong heater and deadly slider, but has been a little hit-or-miss so far in this young season. The Pirates have had a tough time manufacturing runs, which was underlined in their performance yesterday behind Chris Archer.
With Scherzer on the mound, I’m not sure the Pirates’ output at the plate will get much better. He has been less than perfect this season but has the track record to return to form soon. Max scuffled a bit in his last two starts against the strong lineups of the Mets and Phillies. A day against the Pirates could be the spot for him to shine. As always, the major caution with the Nats is their terrible bullpen. I cannot lay the -175, so I’ll run the risk of Taillon pitching a gem and another 1-run game spoiling the run line. Give me Scherzer this afternoon with plus-money.
WAGER: Nationals RL +110
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
This one is going to be a test. What is the mental toughness of this Phillies team after an embarrassing loss? There’s certainly no room for overreaction, although dropping another to the Marlins may have the Philly faithful throwing things across the room.
Less than 24 hours after being blown out by the Marlins, Vince Velasquez is tasked with keeping Miami from scoring 8 runs off of him. He’s a 5-inning guy who got in his first work against the Nationals Monday night. Despite the blowout, the pitching staff was managed properly so that Eflin and Nicasio ate 7 innings. Their bullpen should be ready to take the reins from a planned early exit for Velasquez.
Jose Urena has been very shaky this year, getting knocked around by Colorado and Cincinnati. He’s coughed up 4+ runs in all three of his starts, which have not lasted past the 5th. Philly has a strong lineup that ought to be motivated after last night. This one will be a bullpen game, with a slight edge to Philadelphia’s relievers. It’s middle of the road, but still better than Miami’s.
WAGER: Phillies RL -115
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
I’m going back to Minnesota today to look for my money. Jordan Zimmermann may have other plans, however. He was great against the Blue Jays and Yankees to start the season, but then got bounced around by the Indians. Other than the Yankees (who were struggling at that time), those matchups did not feature the power that the Twins lineup has. The wily vet isn’t a pushover and the Tigers’ solid bullpen has his back when he needs to exit.
Twins’ ace Jose Berrios was stellar on Opening Day and has pitched relatively well in his other two starts. He exhibits a good combination of being a strikeout pitcher than can go deep in the game. He’ll need to do both today in order to limit the exposure of Minnesota’s weak bullpen. The offense will need to keep pressure on Zimmermann to cover the run line and give Berrios a cushion. Another factor in this one is health. The Tigers are without Jordy Mercer, and could be without Castellanos and Goodrum.
WAGER: Twins RL -105
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
They’re due, right? Colorado has lost 8 in a row, including the last 3 against the Giants by a total differential of 5 runs. They put their ace, German Marquez, on the mound to stop the bleeding. So far, he has followed a brilliant second half of 2018 with a pair of great outings and a shaky one against Atlanta. Thankfully, for him, the Giants’ bats are nothing like Atlanta’s.
Derek Holland has been a surprising bright spot in San Francisco’s rotation, coughing up only 6 runs in his 3 starts. His K rate is strong and has the potential to duel with Marquez this afternoon. You never know when the Rockies will snap out of their funk. With many things being equal in this matchup, I’ll take the money on the home team that has been winning. Plus, you have a bullpen differential in favor of the Giants.
WAGER: Giants +106
Thoughts on Houston @ Seattle:
If I was connecting with close-call winners right now, I’d take a shot on Seattle +150. Cole and the Astros have things rolling and have put the brakes on the Mariners’ hot start. While there is value in Marco Gonzales being able to duel with Cole, there are momentum factors that I don’t want to get in front of. With much of this week’s results being a lot of “close, but no cigar” outcomes, I can’t jump on this one.
