Blake Snell assumed his Cy Young-winning form last night, racking up 13 Ks in 7 innings. Freeland held his own for the Rockies by striking out 10 but could not stay on the mound as long due to a 35-pitch 1st inning. The Rays offense did just enough to comfortably get the win and +145 run line cover.
The aggressive approach to my backing of Seattle left some money on the table. Going for the run line +170 instead of laying -110 or so is an aspect of my season-long approach, but in the circumstance of a 2-1 win it doesn’t reap any rewards. I felt that the Mariners would need to get Cahill out of the game by the 5th to see the weaker members of the Angels’ pen for more innings. However, Cahill pitched a strong 6 innings and held Seattle at bay.
A 1-1 record on Tuesday yields +0.45 units, keeping the season record at .500 (9-9) and increasing the net to +2.92 units. It’s Wednesday morning and we’ve got a handful of early afternoon games, so let’s dive in…
Colorado Rockies @ Tampa Bay Rays
Coming off 23 combined Ks from the two starters last night, don’t be surprised if we see a bunch more from today’s pitchers. German Marquez continued his hot run from the second half of 2018 with a stellar opener against Miami. If he is in command of his fastball this afternoon, the Rays batters could be in trouble. Colorado’s bats, however, have been incredibly silent as I mentioned in yesterday’s article. They’ve managed to put up 4 runs in 4 games with only 1 run in the last 3.
Marquez’ counterpart, Charlie Morton, is no slouch either. This crafty veteran is 12 years older than him and relies more on his curveball to avoid solid contact and get strikeouts. If he can manage his pitches well, he has the potential to give the Rays 6 solid innings of work. I give a slight edge to Tampa Bay’s bullpen, who should be nice and rested after last night’s game only required 2 pitchers, Snell and Font.
This has the potential to be a great pitching matchup, pitting a young gun against a crafty vet. I still feel that each team is currently on different ends of the momentum spectrum, for what that is worth. The Rockies hitters have not been able to capitalize on any opportunities in this 4-game stretch, while the Rays have played solid baseball at home to win 5 in a row by 2 runs or more. I cannot lay -135 here, so run line it is.
WAGER: Rays RL +160
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Before we get too deep here, let’s put one thing out there: Homer Bailey is starting for the Kansas City Royals this afternoon. While he showed some positive signs toward the end of spring training, those of us Cincinnati Reds fans cannot shake Bailey’s 2018 performances from our heads.
Kyle Gibson is prone to put guys on base, so I don’t expect this to be a one-sided hit fest. Byron Buxton will likely be out of the lineup and I must assume this when handicapping the games early Wednesday morning to publish this. Despite his loss at the plate and in center field, I still give a reasonable offensive edge to the Twins. It should be noted that KC’s offense was not deterred against Berrios last night , racking up 7 hits and 3 runs against the ace.
Although the Twins pitchers have to hold up their end of the bargain, to me this game is all about Homer Bailey and what he does for the Royals…or better yet, what he can do for the Twins. He has been prone to hard contact and giving up the long ball in recent years. This may be one of the only chances to fade him in 2019…unless he holds it down today and earns a spot in KC’s rotation.
This is more of a scenario play than anything, although I would still give a lean to the Twins with a random back-end starter on the mound for the Royals. Again, I cannot lay the -145 here in case Gibson is off his game and Kansas City’s bats are alive.
