ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs +175
Los Angeles Chargers +220
Denver Broncos +260
Las Vegas Raiders +650
Let’s start by stating the obvious regarding the AFC West, which is this is by far the best division from top to bottom in the entire league. Not only is it presently the best, time will tell if this ends up being one of the best divisions of the last few decades. A case can be made for all four teams to end up in first place when the regular season is over, lining up with the very competitive future odds, at least with the top three teams. Don’t sleep on the Raiders either, as they’ve got the talent to beat anyone, and will undoubtedly battle their rivals tough. The winner of the West will probably end up being the team that has the most success within the division, and will be battle-tested heading into the playoffs.
Denver Broncos
2021 Record – 7-10
2021 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Russell Wilson, (DE) Randy Gregory, (LB) Nik Bonitto
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Drew Lock, (TE) Noah Fant, (DT) Shelby Harris, (DE) Stephen Weatherly
There is a lot of buzz around Denver, as the addition of Russell Wilson has fans believing they have their first true winning quarterback since Peyton Manning joined the organization. The Broncos will need to lean on the experience of Wilson as their new coaching staff, headed by Nathaniel Hackett, are all first-timers as leaders. In addition to Wilson, there are a lot of exciting players on both sides of the ball, with only a few potential holes on the roster. Can a new coaching philosophy and leader at QB be the boost that this team needs to secure a playoff spot?
The Broncos opted to hold Russell Wilson out in the preseason, meaning our first game action of him that we will see is, in week one against his former team on Monday Night Football. He’s going to get the opponents best shot, so be cautious on grading him right out of the gate. Wilson has something going for him in Denver that he did not have the past few seasons in Seattle, and that is a quality offensive line. The Broncos brought in Billy Turner to shore up the right side of the line and the big guys up front for Denver are all solid players. That should be a nice change for Wilson as he gets comfortable in his new offense. Where the Broncos will really shine is running the football. Their one-two punch with Javonte Williams and a still capable Melvin Gordon will provide a physical and unpredictable offensive gameplan. The wide receiver position is key here, as Denver has some talent with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. In the case of Jeudy, they need to get a lot more than they have in his first two seasons in the league. The preseason loss of the reliable Tim Patrick puts even more pressure on the two starting wideouts. With Noah Fant no longer on the team, they’ll rely on Albert Okwuegbunam at the tight end position to round things out.
Much like the offense, the defense has the opportunity to be really stay strong, if things fall into place again. They finished third in overall defensive EPA last season and should follow that up with a strong performance again. The Bronco defense is built well for the AFC West, with an emphasis on the secondary and pass rush. Speaking of the secondary, it’s one of the best in the entire league. Patrick Surtain II shined as a rookie and Ronald Darby is an opportunistic and mostly steady player at the corner. Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons are both near the top of their respective safety positions in the league. The pass rush should be nice off the edge with Bradley Chubb and newcomer Randy Gregory. The weakness on the defense is at the defensive line, where there isn’t a lot of pure talent manning the three man front.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 15th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
Coming with with a complete breakdown prediction for the Broncos was as difficult as any team in the league. This team could be really good and might have the top defense in the division. Russell Wilson is a proven gamer in NFL and really it seemed like the quarterback position was the only consistent “miss” the Broncos had in 2021. If Wilson can elevate the play of these receivers and the ground game dominates as it should, they’re going to be really tough. We felt no choice but to tail the sportsbooks for now and put them down for a 10 win season.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under Totals – Under
There’s a lot to like about the Denver defense as they proved they can hold teams down a season ago. Because of the flashy new QB on offense, early season lines will be set higher than they should be. Look for some lower point totals, particularly if it takes Wilson and the offense a little bit of time to get in sync.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Courtland Sutton (WR), Broncos (DST)
Even though it looks like it’ll be more of a 70/30 than 50/50 with Javonte Williams over Melvin Gordon, we’re still steering clear there. Courtland Sutton is the guy who really should produce consistently with new quarterback Russell Wilson. The loss of Tim Patrick means Sutton is going to play a ton of snaps, and is more reliable than his counterpart Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos defense was one of the best in the league a season ago, and for fantasy purposes at a minimum, they should be good again. The combo of Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory should get some sacks and their starting secondary is a top four collective group in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers
2021 Record – 9-8
2021 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Khalil Mack, (CB) J.C. Jackson, (TE) Gerald Everett, (OG) Zion Johnson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Uchenna Nwosu, (LB) Kyler Fackrell
Head coach Brandon Staley believes he has a team in Los Angeles that can win the AFC East, and even hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Chargers already had a talented roster, and made an early impact in the offseason bringing in some big names in free agency. There are stars and playmakers across the board, and none more poised to lead the league than quarterback Justin Herbert. An aggressive philosophy on offense and a potentially opportunistic defense could be a potent combination to get through the gauntlet within the division.
Good luck trying to find an Achille’s heel on this Los Angeles Chargers offense. Justin Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, and the Chargers have done a great job making sure things are setup for him to knock down. The team drafted Zion Johnson to help secure the right interior of the offensive line, which now looks about as solid as the left side with homerun former draft pick Rashawn Slater anchoring that down. The Chargers don’t do a ton of pure running, but when they do, Austin Ekeler is very capable. Of course what helps make him so valuable is his versatility in the passing game. The familiar duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will line up out wide, and newly acquired tight end Gerald Everett give Herbert plenty of exceptional options.
The Chargers already had some elite players on their defense when you look at guys like Joey Bosa and Derwin James. They apparently decided they’d like to have more and simply added Khalil Mack to support Bosa with the pass rush, and Pro Bowl cornerback J.C. Jackson in the secondary. A year ago the area where Los Angeles struggled was stopping the run. The interesting thing about their offseason additions is, they really didn’t address that piece with who they brought it. They’re clearly molded with a pass rush and coverage and not in the old school smashmouth design. They have better depth than most in the back seven with veterans like Kyle Van Noy and Bryce Callahan coming off of the bench. Asante Samuel, Jr. is another player who will see some playing time without being asked to carry the load. If there is a weakness on this defense it’s the previously mentioned run defense. The defensive line is not overly athletic and the interior linebackers are athletic, without being overly stout.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 12th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The formula for the Chargers in 2022 is pretty simple. Put some points up and get a lead, then use a ferocious pass rush and talented secondary to cement games. If it weren’t for the division they play in, this team could easily win 13+ games. In actuality, they still could win that many games with the talent that they have. We’re going to tentatively pencil them in for a playoff spot, and with a thought that their win total will end up right around the 10-11 mark.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Teasers
The Chargers really don’t have a homefield advantage, or much of a road disadvantage. Utilize the fact that they really shouldn’t have points given or taken away when they’re at home or on the road and figure that into your formula. Additionally, we already know this team plays tough every week, if you can grab extra points when they’re an underdog they’ll be a really good play.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Gerald Everett (TE)
The obvious answers here are the Chargers big four fantasy producers, which would include Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. All of these guys are poised to put up some pretty massive numbers. We’re going to go a little further down the point scale and find what could end up being a sneaky value pick in tight end Gerald Everett. The veteran has never fully lived up to his potential, but he has shown flashes, and should be a featured player in this offense that benefits from eyes being on their other weapons. The stars are aligning for Everett to have a career year at a position that is often the difference in winning matchups.
Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Record – 12-5
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Juju Smith-Schuster, (WR) Marquez Valdes-Scantling, (S) Justin Reid, (CB) Trent McDuffie
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Tyreek Hill, (S) Tyrann Mathieu, (WR) Byron Pringle, (CB) Charvarious Ward
The more things change, the more they stay the same for the Kansas City Chiefs. Some notable departures on offense and defense haven’t kept the team from being the favorite to capture the AFC West again in 2022. We probably do need to give them the benefit of the doubt, since they’ve been to the AFC Championship in every season Patrick Mahomes has been the starter. Head coach Andy Reid has his work cut out for him, as this team has more questions than they’ve had in those previous seasons, but don’t be shocked if the Chiefs don’t miss a beat.
If you’re planning on the demise of the Kansas City offense due to the departure of Tyreek Hill, you’re probably going to be in for a rude awakening. Sure, it’s a great luxury having a weapon like Hill on your offense, but Patick Mahomes is the type of quarterback who can really make anyone successful. The team is also not exactly void of speed as Mecole Hardman is still on the roster, and the team added Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, and rookie Skyy Moore in the draft. It will be a replacement by committee approach for Hill’s production, with Juju Smith-Schister and Valdes-Scantling likely picking up a good portion of it. Of course, it helps that Travis Kelce is still there playing the tight end position as well as anyone in the league. KC doesn’t run the ball a lot, but they’ve got a full stable when they want to. Having kept Ronald Jones, they have a true three-headed monster with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. We’ll also get to see rookie Isiah Pacheco who has turned some heads during training camp. Perhaps the biggest reason there shouldn’t be panic around the Chiefs offense is this offensive line is pretty sturdy now, anchored by center Creed Humphrey. The combination of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid will have some tricks up there sleeves, and have the experience to still command a very potent offense.
After the discussion on the offense, we’re going to go out on a limb, and say it might be ok if you want to be concerned about the defense for the Chiefs. It’s not doom and gloom as they still have Chris Jones on the interior of the defense, and nailed their draft pick with linebacker Nick Bolton. Beyond that, things get a little more questionable. Jones doesn’t have a ton of help on the defensive line as Frank Clark appears to be winding down his career. KC is hopeful that rookie draft pick George Karlaftis can provide some energy and work in as a contributing player. If we’re talking about energy, we’ll have to mention that Willie Gay is also still there and provides a spark of that energy, if not amazing overall play. With safety Tyrann Mathieu gone, Juan Thornhill is taking more of a leadership role in the secondary. He’ll need to mentor rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie, who it looks like they’ll be starting opposite L’Jarius Sneed. The Chiefs defense has been very inconsistent during their recent run, and we’re planning to see even more of that during the 2022 season.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 1st Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -125, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
On paper we have the Chargers a tick above these Chiefs, but when it comes to their record we’ve got them neck and neck. There’s a very good possibility that these teams will be going down to the wire to capture the AFC West. Despite what looks to be a little less talented roster, this Chiefs team is still very good. We’ve got to give Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes the benefit of the doubt until they show us otherwise. As long as Mahomes stays on the field, they should find themselves in the playoffs yet again.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
It may seem like a square wager to look at betting the overs with Kansas City but we’re all in. The books will want to factor in the absence of Tyreek Hill into their lines, when in reality the offense should still be pretty dynamic. This team will regularly put up 30+ points, and with a bit of a shaky defense, they’ll give some back as well. Even with totals in the 50’s, don’t be afraid to bet some overs with games involving the Chiefs.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR)
The problem with this Kansas City Chiefs offense is that outside of Travis Kelce, it appears all of the other action is going to get spread around fairly evenly. The running backs are truly a committee and Jerick McKinnon could end up being the top producer. That is, if rookie Isiah Pacheco doesn’t end up bursting onto the scene. Both Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman could also step up, but it appears that Mahomes has some chemistry with new WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. If you’re going to take a chance on a skill player on this offense we’re recommending swinging for the fences in a late round with MVS.
Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Record – 10-7
2021 Record Against the Spread – 8-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Davante Adams, (DE) Chandler Jones, (CB) Rock Ya-Sin, (OG) Dylan Parham
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Yannick Ngakoue, (DT) Quinton Jefferson, (WR) Bryan Edwards, (WR) Zay Jones
In any other division the Raiders would probably be slotted anywhere from first to third in their preseason projections. So is the challenge we keep mentioning regarding having to play the other three teams in the AFC West. Las Vegas was very active with movement in the offseason as the new coaching regime clearly wants to bring in their type of players and scheme. Even though new head coach Josh McDaniels clearly is building his vision, this team is still expected to compete and win now. The last place prediction in the division is fair based on the other three teams, however the gap between Las Vegas and the others isn’t as large as the +650 number that is hanging out there.
This version of the Las Vegas Raiders offense is flip-flopped from what we’ve gotten used to seeing from them during the Derek Carr era. Normally the Raiders are solid upfront with their offensive line, and end up lacking the playmakers needed to consistently score points. This year, it’s essentially the opposite as the Raiders have some great weapons at the skill position, and a shaky offensive line. What we’ll be watching to see is whether or not the talent can overcome any issues the O-line may end up having? The good news is they have a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr, who has seen pretty much everything that can be thrown at you during his career. The Raiders rewarded Carr by bringing in Davante Adams, who many regard as the top wide receiver in the game, or at the very least, a top five pass catcher. Adams and Hunter Renfroe are the type of guys who can win individual matchups and tear holes in zone coverage so if their opponents can’t generate a strong pass rush, good luck stopping them. Let’s also remembe they have one of the most talented tight ends in the league in Darren Waller, so pick your poison in the passing game. After declining his fifth year option, and playing him a lot in the preseason, the Raiders ultimately held on to running back Josh Jacobs. The writing was on the wall, and Jacobs responded, running hard and looking sharp in camp. Teams are going to have to play soft against the Raiders, so there’s no reason Jacobs shouldn’t play well, even if the offensive line isn’t dominating.
Much like the defenses for the Broncos and Chargers, this Raiders defense is built on what they need to be an elite pass rush. Maxx Crosby is a fierce rusher, and even after receiving some recognition, he’s still one of the most undervalued players in the league. The team welcomes in Chandler Jones in a move that they hope provides them with a disruptive rush from both sides, making things tougher for guys like Mahomes, Herbert and Wilson in the division. The addition of Jones is nice, but you have to wonder just how much that can do for a defense that ranked around 26th a season ago? With the addition of Rock-Ya-Sin, the secondary looks average on paper, however if that pass rush doesn’t get home, they could be in some trouble.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 3rd Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
We’re beginning to see a bit of residual damages from the Mayock/Gruden stint as the Raiders are cleaning house, including many of their recent top draft picks. With that being said, they’re still a really solid football team that’s going to beat some good teams during the course of the season. Having one of the toughest predicted schedules doesn’t help the cause when it comes to trying to win the division or make a playoff run. Although the offensive line isn’t great, the offense should still flourish with a veteran quarterback and the weapons they have. If the defense can play better than expected, they’ll also be in the hunt for the playoffs. Ultimately, they’ll likely fall just short and land somewhere right around their projected win total.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under Totals – Over
The world seems upside-down when we’re recommending betting overs with regularity, but the Raiders are going to play in some high scoring games. Their offense will be as dangerous as it’s been with Derek Carr at the helm, and despite a couple of nice additions on the defense, they’re still going to have challenges against better teams.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Hunter Renfrow (WR)
All eyes will be on Davante Adams who will certainly have a productive year in his own right. We’re looking at the shifty Hunter Renfrow as the player we want to roster. With teams forced to pay so much attention to Adams and matchup problem Darren Waller, Renfrow is going to see a lot of zone coverage or nickel corners. He can eat those coverages alive and there’s plenty of targets to go around on this offense.
