ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts -135
Tennessee Titans +170
Jacksonville Jaguars +800
Houston Texans +3000
The AFC South is generally not regarded as one of the top divisions in the league, yet the Titans managed to secure the top seed during the 2021 season. Maybe it was the schedule within the division that helped launch them into the playoffs, after starting the season running a gauntlet of tough opponents. Despite running away with things a year ago, Tennessee is not favored heading into this season as the new look Colts enter at -135 to capture the division. The Jaguars and Texans still appear to be a step behind, although it’s very possible one, or both teams could surprise us when it’s all said and done. We didn’t see a ton of these teams last season on prime time television, so breaking them down may provide some surprises in what their expectations may deliver.
Indianapolis Colts
2021 Record – 9-8
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-7
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Matt Ryan, (RB) Phillip Lindsay, (OT) Dennis Kelly, (WR) Alec Pierce, (DE) Yannick Ngakoue, (CB) Stephon Gilmore
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Carson Wentz, (CB) Rock Ya-Sin
The Colts are once again playing musical chairs at the quarterback position, as the Carson Wentz experience crashed and burned down the stretch in his lone season in Indy. The team brought in Matt Ryan in hopes the fourth time will be the charm in finding the right fit to guide the offense. For the third consecutive season under head coach Frank Reich, the Colts boast one of the more balanced rosters in the league. Will an active and productive offseason be enough to vault them past the Titans in the AFC South?
The identity of the Indianapolis Colts on offense could best be described as retro, as this team resembles more of an early 1990’s unit than a high-flying modern entity. Nothing is a secret with Frank Reich’s gameplan as his goal is to beat you up in the trenches and control the line of scrimmage. They’ve done a great job of that the past few seasons behind what has been one of the top offensive lines in the league. The O-line this year still looks sound, anchored by perennial All-Pro Quenton Nelson, however it’s not quite as impressive at is was at its peak. Fortunately, they really only need to be average with the exception Jonathan Taylor running behind them. Taylor is the rare combination of player that can control a game by moving the sticks, and can run through, around and by a defense. Behind him, Nyheim Hines provides an athletic receiving threat, and new acquired Phillip Lindsay adds another physical and tough-running depth component. Assuming Indy will be able to run the ball effectively, their offense should be able to remain on schedule behind former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan. When we look back at the quarterbacks who have filled in since the sudden departure of Andrew Luck, Ryan is clearly the most stable and consistent of the group. Unlike Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz, the Colts should be able to rely on Ryan to make a play when needed, and more importantly not turn over the football. If there is a question on this team, it’s the quantity of starting wide receivers. Michael Pittman, Jr. is an underrated player who should put up strong numbers with Ryan at the helm, however after him, there’s a lot of question marks. Parris Campbell is slated to line up across from Pittman, and that has to scare Colts fans at least a little bit. The team is very high on rookie draft pick Alec Pierce, who very well could end up outproducing Campbell when it’s all said and done. For the first time under Frank Reich, Mo Alie-Cox will be more of a featured player at tight end, and if he can develop some rapport with Ryan, could have a nice season.
It’s not an understatement to say that the Colts defense was one of the more underachieving units in the league a season ago. The combination of mistakes, injuries, and subpar secondary play really took its toll and cost them some potential victories. This year’s defense looks much better, at least on paper heading into the year. One thing to monitor is the health of leader Darius Leonard (now Shaquille Leonard), who could have to start the season on the PUP list if he isn’t ready to go. The defensive line is shaping up to be really good behind DeForest Buckner, last year’s strong rookie Kwity Paye, and the addition of Yannick Ngakoue. One of the biggest, yet relatively quietest offseason acquisitions was bringing former DPOY Stephon Gilmore over to play cornerback opposite of Kenny Moore. Gilmore’s best days are likely behind him, but he can still be a solid lockdown corner that will allow defensive coordinator Gus Bradley the ability to open up the defensive playbook.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 30th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10 Wins (over -105, under +115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
We’ve been all in on this year’s Colts team since the acquisition of Matt Ryan. Indianapolis has one of the easiest predicted schedules in the league, and the improvements on the defense should allow them to win some of the close games they lost with Carson Wentz. You can call us crazy, but this team reminds us a lot of the Falcons team that should have beaten Tom Brady and the Patriots in Super Bowl LI. Ryan will benefit from an improved offensive line and strong rushing attack and should turn Michael Pittman, Jr. into a Pro Bowl player. The AFC South is there division to lose, and they are not a team to be taken lightly if they get into the playoffs.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread and Future Bets
We’ve already locked in a season win total over (back when it was at 9.5) and at -105 it’s still worth taking a flyer on a push at 10 wins. Going 10-7 ATS a year ago still hasn’t seemed to give the Colts the national love that they probably deserve. In viewing them as an underrated team heading into the year, there should be some value playing them against the spread again if the numbers are right.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Matt Ryan (QB), Michael Pittman, Jr. (WR)
Before you lose your collective minds, let us clarify that we’re looking at Matt Ryan as a cost-effective QB play in certain situations in DFS, not as a league year long starter. In the right matchups, if you want to spend at RB and WR, Ryan could thrive as one of the less expensive options. Michael Pittman, Jr. was one of the highest rated receivers last year in “route wins”. Unfortunately, Carson Wentz couldn’t always find and get him the football. Ryan will be better so in an offense that doesn’t have a lot of proven weapons, Pittman should thrive by default, not just with his skill.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Record – 3-14
2021 Record Against the Spread – 5-12
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Christian Kirk, (OG) Brandon Scherff, (DE) Travon Walker
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Myles Jack, (WR) D.J. Chark
The 2021 season could best be described as a disaster for the Jacksonville Jaguars organization. The hiring of Urban Meyer was widely criticized by many pundits, who ultimately were able to throw out the “I told you so” when Meyer was canned halfway through the season. The team brought in some stability with new head coach Doug Pederson and had the dubious distinction of owning the top overall selection in the draft for second consecutive season. After only willing three games, their win total of 6.5 seems like a bit of a stretch, until you really start digging into things.
Considering 2021 was a disaster as we stated above, you could probably rank Trevor Lawrence’s season a success despite some poor performances. Lawrence gained a lot of real-game experience playing in an uphill game almost exclusively. More importantly, he made it through the year without sustaining any major injuries. For anyone who’s ready to throw the bust label at Lawrence after one difficult season, we’d urge you to pump the brakes just a bit. Lawrence showed he has the physical tools and the mental aptitude to succeed and excel in this league if he can get some help along the way. The Jags brought in some help along the offensive line with Brandon Scherff on the interior, and some wide receiver help with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to partner with the crafty Marvin Jones, Jr. The team feels good enough with this trio that they let Laviska Shenault go to the Carolina Panthers before final cut day. They also brought in the talented, yet often underperforming Evan Engram at the tight end position. It’s also important to remember the team will get their first look at last year’s other first round pick Travis Etienne, who missed all of last season. Etienne can be a weapon in the receiving game, providing Lawrence with yet another option to throw to. Everything will come back to Trevor Lawrence as how large of a leap he can take in his second season will determine how much this offense and team improves. There is optimism around Jags’ camp as this offense has looked pretty crisp in their limited preseason showings. Let’s see if it can translate when the games count.
Looking at the Jaguars defense, it’s important to put their 28th overall defensive EPA in 2021 in perspective. The offense was mostly inept and put them in tough positions throughout the season. That’s not to say that they’re a great squad, but they played hard, and proved that they weren’t afraid of anyone. The team utilized the top overall pick on Georgia star Travon Walker, and they believe he will be the cornerstone of this defense for years to come. Walker is a multi-skilled talent who will probably used primarily as an edge rusher as a rookie as he figures the game out. If he can provide a consistent rush, the Jags should be one of the better pass rushing teams overall with Josh Allen on the opposite side. There are some potential holes however, as the defensive line is lacking playmakers, and the secondary could probably best described as pedestrian. It’s also important to point out this team cycled through kickers like we haven’t seen in recent memory and is going with an unproven rookie heading into this year.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 20th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
Some experts are predicting a similar jump from year one to two for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars that would mimic what the Cincinnati Bengals did with Joe Burrow. We’re expecting a much more competitive Jaguars team and more impressive play from Lawrence, however we can’t go quite that far with our expectations. The Jaguars don’t have quite the arsenal of receivers, nor as good of a defense to make a true playoff run just yet. Give it another year Jaguar fans and you can enter the playoff conversation chatter.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Unders – Overs
Scoring points didn’t come easily for the Jaguars in Lawrence rookie season which could play to your advantage if you want to look at some over totals this year. The Jags should be markedly better on offense, while the defense still is a few players away from really being able to shut people down. It’s not often that you’ll find us wagering true over point totals, however with this team we may if the total is low enough.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Travis Etienne (RB)
It’s too early to trust Trevor Lawrence as your fantasy QB, although he could be a mainstay in another year or so. The receiver position and tight end are a little too cluttered, so if you’re looking at a Jaguar player for fantasy football, the search should probably start and stop with Travis Etienne. There’s no sample size to evaluate, but he’s the most potentially gifted athlete on the offense and can be used as a runner or receiver. For you dynasty players, don’t let him slip too far down the board.
Houston Texans
2021 Record – 4-13
2021 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(RB) Marlon Mack, (DE) Jerry Hughes, (CB) Derek Stingley, Jr.,
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Deshaun Watson, (QB) Tyrod Taylor, (S) Justin Reid
Anytime your odds to win your division are resting around +3000 it’s probably tough to find a lot of optimism with your franchise. The Houston Texans are in their second year of what could best be described as a rebuild, and an interesting rebuild at that. Lovie Smith was an interesting choice to be the new head coach and brings his defensive philosophies to a team that probably overperformed a year ago. Despite a paltry 4-13 record, the team was fairly competitive and witnessed by their near .500 record against the spread. Will the Texans give Smith the time needed to turn around the team, or is he simply a stop-gap in what might end up being an even larger rebuild that originally planned?
There aren’t a ton of marquee players and household names on the Houston Texans offense, however that doesn’t mean they don’t offer any talent or potential. When the Texans were a playoff team, it was centered on solid offensive line and tackle play, something the team still has with Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. Although their contracts may not be pretty, they at least get respectable play from the big tackles. Brandin Cooks is the gem of the offense as he just continues to produce no matter what team he’s on or who’s throwing him the football. Beyond him, the Texans are definitely thin as they’re hopeful second year man Nico Collins can step up, and they can get some production from Chris Conley or Phillip Dorsett. Brevin Jordan made some big plays as a rookie as well and they believe he can be a quality starting tight end in the league. They have a stable of capable running backs that could be paced by rookie Dameon Pierce who has looked great by all accounts. The elephant in the room on offense centers around quarterback Davis Mills, who has his supporters and his detractors. Without a proven backup on the roster, this is Mills’ season to show the Texans and the NFL what he can do. Is he a franchise quarterback, or will he fizzle out and force the Texans to be on the hunt for a new signal-caller next season?
Things weren’t exception defensively a season ago either for the Texans as they gave up a lot of points and finished in the bottom five in the league in several key metrics. As much as we want to find some bright spots heading into this year, it’s really hard to do, at least on paper. The team did invest their top pick into cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr., a player who certainly has potential written all over him. He could be in for a tough rookie season though if the team is unable to generate a steady pass rush behind a lot of unproven and lower-tier players. Houston took a flyer on veteran pass rushers Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison to provide some guidance to their younger players, but things look pretty bleak on the defensive depth chart overall.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 5th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 4.5 Wins (over -105, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-13
Lovie Smith and a more experienced Davis Mills should be able to make the Texans a little more competitive in the upcoming season. When you look at their difficult schedule though it’s really tough to see where their wins are going to come from? When an over/under is set at 4.5, there’s a clear reason for that, and chances are this really is a 4 or 5 win team. The Texans need to make some decisions on their future and this season will be as much about evaluating players and building a culture as it is winning games.
Possible to Wagers To Play – TBD
We don’t punt very often in terms of trying to provide some sound advice on betting angles, however this team has us stumped. We’ll file the Texans away as a wait and see team before determining if and where some opportunities may rest in wagering for or against them.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Brandin Cooks (WR)
Rookie Dameon Pierce is turning some heads at running back, but this team didn’t run block well a season ago and may not be any better in that department. The safer bet is to go with Brandin Cooks who simply makes big plays each week and manages to find the end zone. Because of his team and quarterback, you can probably land Cooks later in your drafts, and he will continue to produce in his role.
Tennessee Titans
2021 Record – 12-5
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Robert Woods, (TE) Austin Hooper, (WR) Treylon Burks, (QB) Malik Willis
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) A.J. Brown, (OG) Roger Saffold, (LB) Rashaan Evans
After a couple of rough seasons defensively, the Tennessee Titans finally were able to execute Mike Vrabel’s defensive concepts, matching that improvement with an opportunistic offense. The Titans clawed and scrapped their way to the top overall seed in the AFC before eventually succumbing to the AFC Champions Cincinnati Bengals. The offseason in Tennessee was as eventful as any as a draft day surprise saw number one wideout A.J. Brown shipped off to Philadelphia, in what ultimately provided the draft pick for rookie Treylon Burks. The Titans then surprised some by selecting quarterback Malik Willis to initially be a learning backup to incumbent QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans are expected to battle for a playoff spot, while the world watches to see if the exciting Willis will get his shot at taking over this team.
Many people were surprised that it was actually the offense that was carrying the load in Tennessee, as their defense was rounding into form. Things are looking a lot more ordinary for that offense on the roster as we deep dive into the 2022 season. Let’s start with incumbent quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who didn’t play great in 2021, and wasn’t too thrilled or supportive with the drafting of Malik Willis. Will the pressure push Tannehill to step up his game, or cause him to play tense while looking over his shoulder? Regardless, this strategy is always going to start with Derrick Henry and the running game. The Titans are fine with trying to get him another 350 carries this season and need him to stay healthy if they’re going to win. Henry may have to do even more of the work on his own as this offensive line isn’t quite as intimidating as the ones we’ve gotten used to seeing. The wide receiver group is one of the biggest boom or bust trios in the league. Losing a true number one like A.J. Brown is always a bit scary. Robert Woods is a constantly underrated and high-performing do-it-all player, however at his age and coming off of major surgery, it’s tough to know how much they can get from him. Rookie Treylon Burks started the preseason slow before coming on a bit at the end. He may need some time to develop before he can be the type of target the Titans really need him to be. Free agent tight end Austin Hooper is a guy that could be a factor, although Tannehill has not traditionally used his tight ends since being in Tennessee.
Very strong play from defensive leaders Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard helped lead the Titans to a top 5 finish on defense in 2021. The team finally did mirror their coach as a tough and hard-working group that helped each other get better throughout the year. The late addition of linebacker Zach Cunningham helped fill a void in the interior, and the team got really good play from some other players like Harold Landry III. One of the more interesting players is cornerback Kristian Fulton, who looks to be coming into his own heading into the this season. The Titans released former Pro Bowl punter Brett Kern and are going with what could a new weapon in rookie Ryan Stonehouse. The young kicker has a monster leg, and could play a big role in field position in some of the grinder games the Titans often find themselves in.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 11th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -105, under -115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
Originally we had the Titans all the way with an 8-9 projected record, but we had to adjust this up a bit as that was just too steep of a decline for a team that was so feisty a season ago. The sportsbooks have their win total at 9, and we’ll tag along and say that sounds about right. They’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot before ultimately falling short in the crowded AFC.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teaser Bets
The Titans will be competitive in nearly all of their games during the season. If you can tack on an extra 6 points to either get under the key number of 3 as a favorite, or over the key number of 8 as an underdog, jump on them. They’re likely to play as many one score games as any team in the league.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Derrick Henry (RB)
There’s not really much value with any of the players on the Titans offense because they’re so highly regarded. Derrick Henry is a weekly play against poor defenses if you play DFS, despite his price tag.
