ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts +105
Houston Texans +275
Jacksonville Jaguars +375
Tennessee Titians +650

We didn’t have to look at the division winner odds above to know that this is a very competitive and balanced division. Any of these four teams could take the top spot depending on how things align this year. The Colts are the favorites and rightly so, but if you like playing the value prop odds, don’t sleep on the Texans. Even though this division has some pieces of offensive flash, this is still a division that often beats each other up with the defenses leading the way. Buckle up the chin straps when trying to figure out who’s the lead dog in the AFC South as it should be a battle.

Indianapolis Colts

2018 Record – 10-6
2018 Record Against the Spread – 8-7-1

If you were looking for a word to describe the Indianapolis Colts, an adjective you might consider is streaky. The Colts proved a year ago that when they were hot they were really tough to beat. When a team is rolling at the end of one season it’s always worth watching to see if they can keep the momentum they had gained. Normally this is a difficult proposition, but this Colts team could keep the winning formula working for them again in 2019.

Their offseason was by most accounts a very successful one as they added veteran pass rusher Justin Houston and Devin Funchess at WR to line up across from T.Y. Hilton. The running back stable is full lead by Marlon Mack who very well could be a breakout star this year. In addition to the speed positions the Colts are fortunate to have not one but two really solid TE’s. It was amazing to see Eric Ebron finally live up to his first round selection years ago. Even more rewarding if you’re a fan of the game was seeing Andrew Luck come back and answer the questions regarding if he’d ever be able to get back to his talented form. Look for another really nice season for Luck.

Remember when the Colts just scored a whole lotta points but got pushed around on the defensive side of the ball? Yeah, we do too, but those days are over. This defense improved greatly a year ago and looks as though it should only be better this year. They’ve developed a bit of an attitude about them, which in this division is something you pretty much have to have. The front seven and secondary both look above average and could be potentially even better than that. If you’re looking to wager on this team you’ll probably want to make sure you’re finding the right rhythm with their wins/losses ATS pattern. This is a team that could play both high scoring and low scoring games which can making figuring out point differentials challenging. If you’ve got them figured out, you may just have the opportunity to bet their games in the playoffs as this team certainly looks to be in the hunt for some January games.

2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 7th (.518)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-5
Offensively and defensively this team seems to be at least as good and most likely better than a year ago. Some tough divisional games will probably keep the overall win total down a bit, but this team should absolutely go over their predicted 9.5 wins.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop and Future Bets
Point totals and wins ATS could be tricky with this team so we’re looking more at what opportunities are out there with the season win total (it’s the juice that’s scary here). Other than that, it’ll be some individual player performances after we get a feel for the team.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Marlon Mack (RB), Colts (DST)
Grabbing Andrew Luck or T.Y. Hilton on your team should obviously yield some nice results but we’re looking at Marlon Mack as a potential league winner. He has the ability to hit home runs and having some experience under his belt will help. If you need a sleeper or matchup defense this Colts defense could be sneaky good getting to the quarterback and creating turnovers. Be wary of picking Eric Ebron too early as it’s possible his stats could take a bit of a dip this year with Jack Doyle in the mix and more of a focus on him in the redzone.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2018 Record – 5-11
2018 Record Against the Spread – 5-9-2

It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that the Jaguars 2018 season was one of the most disappointing seasons a team has had in recent years. This team was just a play or so away from the Super Bowl after 2017 and started last season talking a big game about what they were planning to do in the AFC. Not only did that not materialize, but this team saw itself buried in controversies, embarrassments and as well as some vicious losing streaks. So what does the 2019 version of Jacksonville Jaguar football hold? We can’t completely answer that, but we can try to put the pieces of this team’s puzzle together.

The big move this team made in free agency was moving on from the Blake Bortles experience and landing Super Bowl hero Nick Foles from Philadelphia Eagles. The Jags are confident that Foles can be the steady leader that the offense needs to take care of the ball and win the close games. We’d be lying if we said we have the same confidence in that happening. Even though his playoff performances in relief of Carson Wentz should live in sports immortality, his play as a starting QB has largely been up and down. Add in the fact that this team isn’t exactly loaded at the WR or TE position either and that puts a lot of pressure on Foles to be really good really often. A wild card on offense is definitely Leonard Fournette. The talented but admittedly lazy and immature running back needs to decide if he wants to be an elite talent, which he could be, or if he’s going to be out of the league in a few years.

You can’t talk about the Jags without talking about their defense. When you earn the nickname “Sacksonville” and talk as big of a game as this group has, the play is magnified whether it ends up being great or poor. There is still some premier talent on this roster but overall this group is not the force that terrorized opposing quarterbacks two years ago. Calais Campbell had another strong year but is showing some signs of slowing down. Marcell Dareus has really not been a big factor since leaving Buffalo and Malik Jackson leaving in free agency could be a quiet but important void. The loss that probably hurts the most is Telvin Smith who will be sitting this year out for personal and family reasons. We’d expect Jalen Ramsey to lock down his side of the field in the secondary, but A.J. Bouye really struggled a year ago, and the safety position could be a liability on the back end.

It’s not all doom and gloom however as the Jags used their first round pick on pass rusher Josh Allen out of Kentucky. You never want a rookie to feel too much pressure, but Allen’s ability to adapt to the NFL and get pressure off the edge really could be a key to this defense this year. You can summarize this year’s Jacksonville Jaguars as a mashed up team trying to re-find it’s identity. They definitely have some talent and potential, but with what looks like a tough schedule, and some noticeable holes on the roster we’re not planning on this team making too big of a splash in 2019.

2019 Strength of Schedule – 3rd (.531)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over +110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-10
Nick Foles could prove us wrong, but he looks like he’s going to be in a really tough spot trying to lead this team. If the defense can regain it’s form they can certainly make some noise, but it’s tough to see them as a true contender in a competitive division.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
Because of the name recognition and a veteran QB this team will most likely have the respect of bookmakers. This is evidenced by their 8 win season win total projection. As was the case a year ago, this team could very easily struggle ATS again this year.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Marquise Lee (WR)
Buyer beware if you want to roll the dice with Leonard Fournette. He seems like one of those fantasy players that could make your team, but also set your team way back if selected early. If you’re in a PPR league or playing daily fantasy Marquise Lee is an under the radar guy could catch some passes and find the endzone for you.

Houston Texans

2018 Record – 11-5
2018 Record Against the Spread – 7-8-1

The Houston Texans have endured their fair share of bad luck over the last couple of seasons yet they still have managed to find a way into the win column more often than not on Sundays. When you scan through this roster it’s pretty easy to find the gems that are not so hidden. Deshaun Watson is a rare talent who should only get better as he enters his prime. For our money, his main target Deandre Hopkins is the best wide receiver in the game. And JJ Watt is as recognizable of a face and a force as the league has to offer. But what about the rest of this roster? If you’re a Texans fan you’re most likely ok leaning on that top heavy talent in hopes of having another successful season.

The lack of contributing role players is a little concerning to us. This team’s offensive line was disastrous a year ago which forced the Texans into drafting linemen early. It’s impossible to know how a rookie will perform but most draft experts weren’t too high on the players they selected. The running back position is in good shape with the underrated Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman leading the charge but how much success this offense has could ultimately be decided with the big guys in the trenches.

The front seven of the defense will continue to be a strength as Jadeveon Clowney, JJ Watt and company can hold things down. For this team to be effective on defense they’re going to need their stars on the defensive line to shine. The secondary is littered with mediocre and unproven talent. The departure of Tyrann Mathieu in free agency could really prove to be a major loss as he not only played well a year ago but brought some leadership and attitude to the back end of the defensive. Jonathan Joseph has had a very respectable career at the corner, but for the first time last year seemed a step slow in coverage. Tashaun Gipson joins the team at the safety position, but coming over after a poor overall year we have to wonder how effective he will be? We’ve painted a little bit of a picture of doom and gloom for the Texans this year but it’s really more of a cautionary tale than anything else. Staying healthy is as important for this team as any as they overall have a serious lack of depth, but if this team can keep it’s core on the field together they could once again with a lot of games this year. If you like long-shots, take a closer look at this team. They have the star power talent and experience to win against anyone in the league.

2019 Strength of Schedule – 4th (.527)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over +120, under -140)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
We’ve got the Texans figured at 9-7 but it’s predicated on the health throughout the season. A key injury or two could set this group back a long ways. It’s a risky proposition but at +120 we’d take the over on them before we took the under.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
The Texans were one of our best prop plays a year ago as we found success with Deandre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson regularly. This team tends to play well as underdogs getting points so if you want to play them against the spread that seems like your best bet there.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Deshaun Watson (QB), Keke Coutee (WR)
If you don’t land one of the top few QBs early you may have the chance to get Deshaun Watson later in your draft. If you’ve followed BetCrushers you know that we’re expecting a monster season from Watson this year. We always target Deandre Hopkins early in fantasy but a sleeper you may want to check into is Keke Coutee. He showed some promise last year and is an option in PPR formats especially when you look at his low price tag.

Tennessee Titans

2018 Record – 9-7
2018 Record Against the Spread – 8-8

Has there ever been an NFL team that does so little to impress each week but somehow is still in the playoff hunt at the end of each season? (All due respect to Derrick Henry’s ridiculous 99 yard touchdown run last year which was beyond impressive). The Tennessee Titans may not be flashiest team but like their head coach Mike Vrabel they sure do grind things out and get things done. This year’s edition of the Titans seems to offer more of the same. A tough and gritty offensive line, an underrated and fiesty defense and not a lot of prime time games.

Is it safe to assume that the mediocre 8-8 type season is in the works again this year since the formula hasn’t changed? Well, that all depends a certain player wearing jersey number 8 at the quarterback position. There is no question that Marcus Mariota possesses talent and has even carried the team on his back to some victories. But just when you think he’s taking the leap to the elite level of quarterback he seems to crash back down to earth with a 120 something yard passing performance and 2 untimely picks. In order for this team to truly compete at the highest level Mariota has to become the consistent week in and week out impact player that he has the potential to be.

While we’re talking about making a consistent impact, if your name is Corey Davis, now would also be a good time for you to do the same thing. Davis has had a couple of monstrous individual efforts but overall has largely been a disappoint since joining the team. One quiet addition that could be really helpful for this team is the signing of WR Adam Humphries from Tampa Bay. This guy fits the mold of this team and could be the security piece that Mariota feels comfortable targeting. This offense also needs a healthy Delanie Walker at the TE position to create some mismatches for the opposing defenses. Running back is a strength with Henry and the versatile Dion Lewis.

As far as their own defense goes, not a lot looks different for this group. Veteran Brian Orakpo is gone, but the aging Cameron Wake coming over from Miami should be able to fill his shoes as the Titans hope he can give them one or two quality seasons rushing the passer. If you want to see one of the more underrated players in the league take a look at Jurrell Casey on the interior of the defensive line. He’s that cliche “lunch pail” guy that just wears down offensive linemen. The defensive backfield may be lacking extreme talent and ability but they can make up for it with smart and experienced veteran play. So the question raised again is, what will be different this year for the Titans? We’re going to side with history and trends on this one and guess that not a whole lot will change. Mariota is the wild-card, but look for this group to be competitive week in and week out, winning some and losing some.

2019 Strength of Schedule – 9th (.473)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over +110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-8
This team and it’s past make this seem like a lock for an 8-8 season. How well their division rivals play could influence their record in either direction, but it’s just too hard to picture this team making noise based on what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Point Totals / Under
Even though NFL totals were hitting at record paces on overs, and Titans games often are set low, this team is rarely in shootouts. If you took their game under totals you’ll win more than you’ll lose.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Adam Humphries (WR)
The running backs are the two to target on this team but if you’re needing some depth at WR and want to take a shot at Adam Humphries we wouldn’t blame you. Offseason additions like this one are often hit or miss, but don’t be shocked if Humphries has a big year and catches a lot of balls.