ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens +145
Cincinnati Bengals +170
Cleveland Browns +380
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
The AFC North has been one of the most closely watched divisions in the offseason, with all four teams having some form of a storyline heading into the year. The biggest intrigue rested in Cleveland, where the uncertainty around the controversial acquisition of Deshaun Watson had as many ups and downs as the Browns Super Bowl odds. The Steelers have a new QB under center for the first time in years, and the Ravens are looking to bounce back from an injury derailed 2021 season. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals are hoping to avoid a Super Bowl loss hangover and worked hard to get even better via free agency. This is most likely a two horse race between the Ravens and Bengals, as the oddsmakers have outlined, but don’t tell that to Steeler or Browns fans.
Cincinnati Bengals
2021 Record – 10-7
2021 Record Against the Spread – 14-7
KEY ADDITIONS:
(OT) La’el Collins, (OG) Alex Cappa, (OL) Ted Karras, (S) Daxton Hill
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(TE) C.J. Uzomah, (DT) Larry Ogunjobi, (WR) Auden Tate, (CB) Darius Phillips
Anytime a team makes to a Super Bowl, and comes oh so close to winning it, a lot of things really have to go right. That’s exactly what happened for the Cincinnati Bengals, as a hot streak to wind down the season along with the some favorable matchups, and a Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs implosion vaulted this team to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. Zac Taylor’s team enters this year with a potent offense, underrated defense, and what seemingly is a hunger to get back to the big game. Many pundits believe a big regression is coming for an organization that has traditionally been looked down upon, and how well they perform this year could paint the picture for how long this team can be a threat in the AFC.
What else can you say about former first overall pick Joe Burrow that hasn’t been shown in highlights and said a million times? This guy is the real deal. His talent speaks for itself, yet it might be his cool confidence and leadership that is his most overall impressive trait. The Bengals spent the offseason working to protect their franchise darling, bringing over three new slated starters on the offensive line, most notably La’el Collins at the right tackle position. Burrow was really good a year ago without protection, so the sky certainly seems to be the limit if he can actually get some time in the pocket to throw. That could also be good news for running back Joe Mixon, who should see plenty of thin boxes with teams needing to protect against the deep ball threat that rookie star Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins provide on the outside. Tyler Boyd is still manning the intermediate routes, and in what could end up being a very sneaky move, new tight end Hayden Hurst could also provide a boost there. There’s only one major concern that we see with this offense as it stands, and that’s that the Bengals are not situated with a capable backup quarterback. If Burrow misses any substantial time during the season, this team faces one of the larger drop-offs in the league.
The star players on the offensive side of the ball understandably get the notoriety on this team, yet it might be the defensive unit that is more complete from top to bottom. You don’t hear a lot of people discussing this defense, which seems like a big mistake when you look at the Cincinnati Bengals. They really do not have a weakness in any of their starting eleven, and have some vastly underappreciated guys in Sam Hubbard, Trey Hendrickson, Logan Wilson and the freshly franchise tagged Jessie Bates III. This is the part where people point out that they have Eli Apple at the cornerback position, and while Apple is what he is, the guy played pretty well most of last season. If there’s an issues on this defense, it’s similar to the offense in the sense that there isn’t great depth in the front seven. Rotating players there, or dealing with injuries could end up being a challenge if things get too thin. To start the season at least, this should be a top ten grouping. It’s worth noting too that Evan McPherson has already proven to be a top special teams weapon, and coach Darrin Simmons is one of the most tenured and consistent in the league.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 6th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The schedule isn’t easy for the Bengals and there are no shortage of folks who believe this team is going to majorly regress in 2022. We’re on the opposite side and see a very clear path to an 11-6 record, and even a possibility of hitting 12 wins. There’s a very good chance this team conquers the AFC North, although they’ll need another season of some friendly bounces along the way. Getting back to the Super Bowl seems like a tall task in working through the AFC gauntlet, however competing to get back to the Super Bowl seems very well within the reach for the Bengals.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Bengals finished the season on an ATS roll which would normally make us very cautious to back them as a movement back towards the mean would seem inevitable. Somehow, this team is still undervalued going into the season, as referenced by their Vegas win totals. If you can get good numbers moving in your favor, don’t be afraid to put your trust in Cincinnati to get you to the payout window.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Joe Mixon (RB), Tee Higgins (WR)
Ja’Marr Chase is one of the hottest names in fantasyland and he should put up elite numbers if you can grab him. The value really seems there with Tee Higgins though, who you can get much later, and should have numbers that aren’t that far off the pace of Chase. Another safe play is running back Joe Mixon who should see as many carries as any running back in the league. As long as he’s stays healthy he’s a guaranteed 1,200 yard guy and should get some red zone touches.
Cleveland Browns
2021 Record – 8-9
2021 Record Against the Spread – 7-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Deshaun Watson, (QB) Jacoby Brissett, (WR) Amari Cooper, (CB) Martin Emerson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Mack Wilson, (CB) Troy Hill, (WR) Jarvis Landry, (WR) Rashard Higgins
Things have somewhat quieted down around Cleveland as it feels like less and less fans are conflicted with the question of whether or not to support the city’s beloved franchise? The detractors have exited, and the remaining are either holding their nose and accepting things, or were going to be all-in no matter what. We’re not here to report on that or judge anyone, we’re just glad it’s not our favorite teams that went this route, forcing us to make some tough choices. Ultimately, this initial Deshaun Watson season is a bit of a wash anyhow, as he’ll miss the first 11 games of the season, likely squashing any chances of reaching the playoffs in the AFC.
For the purpose of this breakdown we’ve got to move forward with exploring Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback for the Browns. Because he’s a veteran in the league and he had some early success in his career, he’s largely viewed as a capable replacement at quarterback. The reality is, Brissett is not a starter in this league as his career 14-23 record would proved, despite playing on some pretty talented teams. He’s just a 60% passer and has less touchdown passes than games started. He’s again fortunate to be in a good place with a top three offensive line in the league, and two of the top running backs to lighten the load. The team also was able to acquire wide receiver Amari Cooper, giving them a legitimate healthy number one wide receiver. Despite what looks like a really strong roster, this offense will take a step backwards without Baker Mayfield at the helm. Keep in mind, we’ve been bashing Mayfield for the past three seasons if that explains how we really feel about Brissett. In reality, don’t be surprised if Josh Dobbs or Josh Rosen end up getting some starts if the season starts out slowly for the Browns.
If it feels like we’re down on the Cleveland offense, we’re only slightly more optimistic on their defense. The team is of course paced by defensive end Myles Garrett who is one of the top players in the game today. They were able to retain Jadeveon Clowney on the opposite side, although as has been the case for most of his career, his bark is often louder than his bite. The team looks particular vulnerable in the interior of the line and with Anthony Walker, Jr. at middle linebacker, so there’s a real chance that stopping the run could be a problem. If there’s a bright spot on the defense it rests in second year player Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was one of the highest graded defensive rookies in the league a season ago. He can rush the passer and drop in coverage so he allows defensive coordinator Joe Woods to really mix up his play calling. The secondary is what garners the most headlines, as Denzel Ward is widely regarded as a top talent at corner, and the others are a mix of athletic players who were former high draft choices. When you really study the film, their secondary performs more like a middle of the pack unit, as opposed to the type of group they seem to get credit for.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 24th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -135, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-11
If you look through the schedule for the Browns, it starts off very favorably with some clearly winnable matchups. They could absolutely start hot, and if Watson were to return make a run for the postseason. We’re on the fade train when it comes to this team as the organization’s track record, and maybe even some karma will make this a tough season in Cleveland. Alright, the karma piece was a joke, however the rest of our break down can go on record.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
When you have guys like Amari Cooper, Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to name a few on the roster, the sportsbooks and public are going to expect you to win games and be competitive. As we’ve stated, we don’t really see that being the path that this team takes in 2022. We’ll be fading the Browns consistently, unless the books really catch up to their true identity.
Fantasy Players To Watch – David Njoku (TE)
Even though he’ll share carries, Nick Chubb is as close to an automatic at the running back position as you’ll find. A guy we did not mention in our breakdown who could be an interesting fantasy candidate is athletic tight end David Njoku. Even though the coaching staff has stated they’ll be platooning at the position, Njoku should get the bulk of the snaps, and has the ability to be a really good tight end. As a guy that’s way under the radar, he could be an interesting and affordable DFS play with high upside.
Baltimore Ravens
2021 Record – 8-9
2021 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(S) Marcus Williams, (OT) Morgan Moses, (S) Kyle Hamilton
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Marquise Brown, (WR) Sammy Watkins, (C) Bradley Bozeman
Every season a team or two really gets stung with major injuries that pile up, and that was certainly the case for the Ravens last year. It started in the preseason and carried over throughout the duration, ultimately forcing them to miss the playoffs. The team appears poised to start the season healthy and ready to find their way back into the playoffs. Head coach John Harbaugh has tried to quiet the discussion around quarterback Lamar Jackson’s contract status and is confident it won’t become a distraction during the season.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has always put a premium on running the football, which makes the Ravens the right team for him to call plays with. With Marquise Brown headed to Arizona, the burden of carrying the offense rests even more on the beefed up shoulders of Lamar Jackson. On the plus side, he still has his favorite weapon in tight end Mark Andrews, who is much more than just a security blanket. When we look at the receivers, it’s a collection of unproven players, who really seem more like backup players in the league. The exception is Rashod Bateman, who while also largely unproven, is expected to be the heir apparent to Hollywood Brown. The team needs Bateman, or someone to step up to compliment Andrews in the passing game. Truthfully, Roman and Harbaugh would probably be ok if the team could just continue their trend of dominating in the running game. They’ll welcome back J.K. Dobbins, who missed all of last season with a blown out knee. As always, the polarizing player that everyone will be watching is Lamar Jackson. This team will ultimately go as far as he carries them, whether that’s with his legs or on his arm.
The Ravens actually did a really admirable job piecing together a defense that was minus so many key contributors in 2021. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has a restocked roster at his disposal which should feature the return of both Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey at the corner spots. Having two playmakers who need to rebound could allow Martindale to be more aggressive in his scheme and play calling. That’s something the team may need to do as they don’t necessarily have a true pass rusher in their front seven. Odafe Oweh possesses that ability, and their linebackers are very solid as a collective unit. Perhaps the best news the team received was veteran Pro Bowler Calais Campbell returning to anchor their defensive line, which would have been a little suspect otherwise. Make no mistake, this is not an elite Ravens defense as we’re accustomed to seeing, however they won’t be a liability either, and should be able to matchup fairly well with the teams in AFC North.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 21st Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -160, under +130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
Neck and neck should describe how the Ravens compete with the Bengals in the AFC North this season. We’ve actually got them with an identical 11-6 mark as John Harbaugh knows what he has to work with. Having some of the best special teams in the league is always something that stays below the radar when it comes to this Ravens team.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
This may be oversimplifying things, but tease this team often if you can get to the key numbers. Giving this group an extra 6 points is almost like taking candy from a baby.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Rashod Bateman (WR)
Rashod Bateman is certainly not flying under the radar heading into the season as he’s listed as a WR1 on an offense without a lot of competition at the position. That being said, he’s still probably a bit undervalued. The challenge that you’ll have with Bateman is he may end up a little like his predecessor Hollywood Brown, meaning it could be some weeks of feast or famine. We’ll also add in the very obvious advice of trying to get Mark Andrews onto your team if at all possible.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Record – 9-7-1
2021 Record Against the Spread – 8-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Mitchell Trubisky, (OG) Mason Cole, (LB) Myles Jack, (CB) Levi Wallace (QB) Kenny Pickett, (WR) George Pickens
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Ben Roethlisberger, (OG) Trai Tuner, (WR) Juju Smith-Schuster, (WR) James Washington
Not seeing Ben Roethlisberger line up behind center is certainly going to be a little strange when watching the Pittsburgh Steelers this year. They’ll actually look pretty different as a whole, despite still featuring some familiar faces and Pro Bowl players. Mike Tomlin and the organization always seem to get the most out of their athletes, which is why they haven’t had a losing season since 2003. Vegas has Pittsburgh slated to finish last in the competitive AFC North by quite a margin. Can Tomlin continue to work his “standard is the standard” magic, or is the lengthy run of success due to regress with a new quarterback leading the team?
One of two things are going to happen regarding the offense, and in particular the quarterback position for the Steelers this season. The team will either realize just how good they had it with Big Ben in command of the offense, or the quarterback situation they find themselves in is actually not as dire as it may initially have seemed. Mitchell Trubisky appears to be the leader in the clubhouse to start the season, and it’s important to point out that while he didn’t look great in Chicago, he also wasn’t set up to be successful. He may give them enough with his mobility and experience to keep their offense moving the chains. Of course there’s also a real possibility that Trubisky could struggle and we could see Mason Rudolph, or even rookie Kenny Pickett, who has shined during the preseason. It’s pretty simple math really when it comes to this QB carousel. If the Steelers are playing one quarterback throughout the season, they’re probably doing pretty well and winning games. If we’re seeing two or three guys in the lineup, things never really took shape, and the Steelers are clearly outside looking in come playoff time. The organization has drafted well at the school positions as Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris are a really solid trio. Where the team may have really hit a home run is with rookie George Pickens who is showing all of the signs of being a special talent in this league. This group will certainly be more than enough to offset what really isn’t a huge loss in the departure of Juju Smith-Schuster and James Washington. The big red flag for Pittsburgh offensively is the fact that this offensive line is one of the worst in the league. That’s not great when you have quarterbacks you’re counting on to learn quickly and produce. For that reason alone, Trubisky may give the team the best chance to win as his escapability might be necessary on a weekly basis.
A season ago we watched Mike Tomlin visibly frustrated as coordinator Keith Butler’s defense was repeatedly gashed by their opponent’s running game. A hallmark of the Steelers throughout the existence of the franchise has been hard-nosed defense and stopping the run. The team gets Tyson Alualu back in the middle of the defense and brought over Larry Ogunjobi and Myles Jack in an effort to help shore things up there. They’re really hoping that linebacker Devin Bush can make the leap to the player they hoped he’d be when they drafted him 10th overall in 2019. If the run defense is even average, the defense should be just fine as T.J. Watt will continue to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks with his relentless pass rush. The secondary is anchored by Minkah Fitzpatrick and they feel good enough about Cameron Sutton and free agent Levi Wallace on the corners. This defense should be better than they were a season ago, the question is just how much better can they be?
2022 Strength of Schedule – 4th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 7 Wins (over -125, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
Don’t expect anything less than hard fought competitive efforts from this team week in and week out. They have enough to beat any team in the league on the old any given Sunday moniker. The problem they seem to have in the AFC North is they have what appears to be the toughest schedule to overcome with a lot of potentially strong opponents. Couple that with the uncertain play from the quarterback position and a poor offensive line, and we’re under the belief this will be the season Tomlin finally falls under the .500 mark.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread and Over/Under Totals – Under
The Steelers are traditionally one of the most publicly backed teams due to their insane following of fans. Don’t let that scare you from looking to bet them in the right situations this season though as this team seems to be an afterthought in the AFC. As mentioned, the way this team is built, there could be some low scoring games with this Pittsburgh team.
Fantasy Players To Watch – George Pickens (WR), Pat Freiermuth (TE)
For those of you who play in keeper leagues, George Pickens is the guy you really want to keep on your radar. He has star written all over him and looks as though he’s going to get a lot of playing time right out of the gate. If he’s not an impact player as a rookie, he will get there in year number two. Diontae Johnson is playing for a contract, so he should make some things happen as well, it’s just the question marks at QB that scare us a little bit there. Pat Freiermuth is someone who can get you consistent weekly production, even if he isn’t putting up numbers like the George Kittles of the world.
