BetCrushers.com is free and clear of hosting issues this morning! Good thing, because it’s college hoops Saturday and the slate is huge. I won’t bury the lead with a recap of Thursday’s game since it is a topic of the Road Dog Report for 1/25/2020. Let’s go!
(683) Drexel @ Hofstra -8.5
The 12-9 Drexel Dragons were sent back to Philly with their tail between their legs after an 85-52 beating by Northeastern. The Huskies’ main man, Jordan Roland had as many points as Drexel did at the half (17) but barely beat the 13 turnovers the Dragons made in the first twenty minutes of play (that’s sarcasm, friends). Drexel’s 32.7% shooting paled in comparison to Northeastern’s 55.2% that included a stellar 52.9% from downtown. Although they tightened up in the second half and committed only four turnovers, the damage was done and my ticket was most certainly a goner before ten minutes were off the clock.
Can they bounce back against the 14-7 Hofstra Pride? Both squads are 5-3 in the CAA, making this game a valuable step towards league leaders William & Mary and Charleston. The Pride have been living on the edge lately, playing their each of the last four games to a margin of two points (2-2). They just suffered a buzzer-beater loss to Delaware, a team that is nearly comparable to Drexel.
My view of Drexel has not changed much from Thursday’s handicap other than a standard adjustment to my ratings. In addition to struggling on the offensive end, the Dragons allowed Jordan Roland to flourish early and often. The burning question today is whether the Dragons can limit the damage of Hofstra’s key perimeter threat, Desure Buie.
Sticking to Their Guns
Hofstra relies heavily on an experienced core of five upperclassmen led by fifth-year senior Desure Buie. Buie averages 18.7 PPG, moves the ball very well, and takes advantage of his free throw opportunities with 88.3% shooting from the line. Those similarities between him and Northeastern’s Roland are scary enough, especially considering that he can kill it from behind the arc (42.4%).
6’5″ senior guard Eli Pemberton is another dangerous scorer for the Pride, who also makes his shots from the charity stripe. Fortunately for Drexel, they’ve committed the second-least amount of fouls in the CAA. 6’7″, 240-pound UGA transfer Isaac Kante may put this to the test this afternoon. Kante has flourished in league play, putting up three double-doubles in his last six games. He muscles up to grab rebounds and is strong to the hoop with 62.4% shooting. Drexel’s 6’8″, 240-pound James Butler can go toe-to-toe with Kante and must do so today to keep the Dragons competitive. Butler v. Kante should be a good matchup to watch.
On the Money
Drexel’s loss to Northeastern dropped them to 9-11 ATS and 4-6 ATS away from home. We saw them disappoint as 4.5-point Road Dogs at Towson then come right back two days later to get a big win at James Madison. Granted, JMU is a significantly-worse team than Hofstra, but the Dragons rebounded well from a Thursday road loss at Towson to get that seven-point win. It’s a stiffer test against the Pride and the +8.5 squarely reflects that.
Hofstra came into league play with a 4-1 home record but has since dropped two of three at the Mack Sports Complex. They’re 13-7 ATS on the season and 4-3 ATS at home, though this has regressed from a 3-1 home ATS mark prior to the in-conference schedule. The two CAA home favorite non-covers came as 8-point and 7-point favorites against William & Mary and Delaware, respectively. Fool me twice, shame on me…but I am on the +8.5 with Drexel after that ugly loss two days ago.
(715) Arkansas St. @ Troy -1
14-7 Arkansas State heads to Alabama for a showdown with Sun Belt foe Troy. The Troy Trojans are 8-13 on the season but have dropped three of their last four. On the flip side, the Red Wolves are playing well and have won three of their last four. I’ll be frank: it’s tough to find strengths on either team or specific matchups that significantly tilt the handicap in one direction.
Arkansas State doesn’t do much from the perimeter and has seen several key players fall off lately. 6’6″ senior Canberk Kus and 6’9″ J.J. Matthews have been very quiet over the last few games. This would appear to leave a big hole in the Red Wolves’ inside game, but they have benefitted from Wake Forest transfer Melo Eggleston coming on strong. Eggleston isn’t the most efficient scorer, shooting just over 45% inside the arc. However, he is strong on the boards and has put up a pair of double-doubles in ten games despite two duds against South Alabama.
Shuffle Up and Deal
Coach Mike Balado has been forced to shuffle his lineup around due to inconsistent play from several key players. He needs more out of guard Caleb Fields but has benefitted from Jerry Johnson, Jr. and Marquis Eaton stepping up recently. Eaton has been especially strong with 19.2 PPG in their last five games by manufacturing opportunities and hitting 79.1% from the line.
Troy has lived and died by the three-point shot this season. They’ve shot 274 times from beyond the arc in ten Sun Belt games, making 35.8% of them. This is a step above their 32.8% 3PT shooting for the entire season. Darian Adams is a big part of this sharpshooting, though he has been cold in the last three games with 3-19 from downtown and only 18 points. Guards Ty Gordon and Desmond Williams have picked up the slack with consistently-strong performances in their conference games. They are the two main reasons for the Trojans’ surge from beyond the arc, shooting an aggregated 66-158 (41.7%) from downtown. Big men Zay Williams and Davion Thomas haven’t flexed on their opponents much this season, providing an opportunity for the Wolves’ Eggleston to thrive this afternoon.
On the Money
The Red Wolves are riding a 6-1 ATS run that includes a 2-1 ATS mark as Road Dogs. They are 14-5 ATS for the season and 5-3 ATS away from home. Troy is 9-11 ATS and 5-4 ATS at home. Unfortunately, for the Trojans, they’re riding a tough 3-6 streak vs. the number. This is the first time that they have not gotten points since they laid -1 vs. North Alabama on December 4th. They covered that game by winning 71-63.
These teams just met on January 11th in Jonesboro. Arkansas State laid -4.5 but it took them overtime to get the 76-68 win and cover. Today’s +1 or Pick line is arguably short, and that close game a couple weeks ago has something to do with it. Troy’s Darian Adams dropped 20 points that night before his current drop-off in productivity. Arkansas State was buoyed by 41 points from Eaton and Fields, and I would be remiss if I did not recognize Eggleston’s double-double. Troy could certainly snap out of their funk, but am taking the +1 with a Red Wolves squad that may have found the right lineup to continue their push in the Sun Belt.
On Deck
That puts a bow on a two-play Road Dog Report for 1/25/2020, but the work of the BetCrushers Team is far from done. I’ve moved on another MLB season win total and continue to grind out divisional previews. Yanni is putting the finishing touches on a Super Bowl edition of Prop Corner. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email alerts when new handicapping articles drop:
