Oh so close to a 3-0 Monday as the Bonnies fall short of covering the +4 at Buffalo. Regardless, closing line value was positive for all three plays and our friends at Cleveland State and Idaho handled their business. We’re ready to turn the page on 2019, but first, it’s the Road Dog Report for 12/31/2019.
Buffalo held our highlighted player, Osun Osunniyi, in check and out-rebounded the Bonnies on their way to a second-half comeback. Although this was the only loss on yesterday’s card, the 79-84 result was painfully close to the +4 but the end-game free throws doomed this ticket. Cleveland State’s buzzer-beater spares me a perilous overtime period with that +4 ticket in Indianapolis. I was certainly wrong about these teams’ challenges scoring as they battled to an 82-80 finish. And the nightcap was not without drama as the Idaho Vandals fell behind by double-digits yet rallied to keep it close at the end.
(799) UC Riverside @ Air Force -4
The Big West’s 9-5 Riverside Highlanders make their way to Clune Arena to face off against the 6-7 Air Force Falcons. This squad is anything but an offensive powerhouse, scoring only 64.7 points per game. Defense has been the key to their early-season success. The Highlanders have let only two teams break the 60-point threshold.
Air Force, on the other hand, scored more than 75 points in all but two games this season. They’re rarely the biggest team on the court, but this squad can shoot the lights out. Their 48.4% shooting from the field is even more impressive when you realize they are 40.8% from downtown. Guards AJ Walker and Caleb Morris are the Falcons’ main sharpshooters, but don’t sleep on 6’7″ forward Ryan Swan-Ford who fires off bombs at a 45% clip. The Falcons’ stellar shooting runs up against the Highlanders’ 37.5% against them. They defend the deep ball to a 28.6% rate…so something’s gotta give this afternoon.
Riverside’s stifling defense will certainly be put to the test by Air Force’s perimeter shooting, but Falcons senior forward Lavelle Scottie has been a strong front court presence. Scottie gets the lion’s share of shots for Air Force and will be countered by a pair of New Zealanders. 7’1″ 275-pound sophomore center Callum McRae is a dominant force down low, and is spelled by the less-impactful 6’10” Angus McWilliam. Today’s game features a clear difference in styles; which team’s path to success will be compromised?
On the Money
UC Riverside’s performance in the betting markets has been so-so this year. They are 6-5-1 ATS, including a 3-3-1 record on the road. However, they have covered their last two and both of those came away from home. Air Force’s 6-6 ATS is a tick worse, as is their 2-3 home ATS mark. The Falcons failed to cover their last three games, two of which were at home.
Aside from the schematic matchup, prices on the Highlanders’ last three road games give us some telling clues. Riverside was +7 in their last game at Fresno, who I have 6 points better than Air Force with my core ratings. Prior to that, they laid -3.5 at San Jose State who I rate 4 points worse than the Falcons. These recent games imply a fair price around UCR +1.
What about Air Force’s last home game? They lost by five while laying -1.5 against a Drake team that I make 2 points better than Riverside. Drake has more firepower than the Highlanders but is less formidable on defense. Oddsmakers have priced today’s game fairly in this context, although I argue that Riverside continues to be underpriced. Give me the +4 with UC Riverside’s tough defense, although I must admit that this wager would certainly benefit from a sub-par Air Force shooting day.
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