Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 20-24-1
WEEK 11 RECAP:
A pretty uneventful and more importantly unprofitable weekend as we turned in a pedestrian and ho-hum 1-2 with our posted plays in week 11. We dug ourselves an early hole by losing the Thursday Night game as we had teased the Steelers and the over. Lost in the melee that was Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph for us was the fact that the drive prior, Rudolph had a legitimate shot to backdoor that win for us, but without James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson it was just simply too much for them to move the ball. Sunday got off to an even worse start we the first leg of our teaser was completely blown up before it even started as we had the Carolina Panthers as a pick just needing a home win against divisional foe Atlanta. There was obvious concern as we watched that number drop from -6.5 all the way to -4 prior to kickoff, however a straight up win was certainly not asking too much, or so we thought. Kyle Allen was horrendous as the Falcons somehow have gotten their defense rolling and Carolina never really had a shot in the game after the first quarter red zone interception by Allen. The second leg of the teaser won easily, but of course was irrelevant after the pasting the Panthers had taken. Along with the majority of the public, we cashed in with the Chiefs on Monday Night to salvage a little back as Philip Rivers imploded and the Chiefs won by a TD as we had suspected. Not to toot our own horn or anything, but here is what we had written prior to the Monday Night Game –
“We may be reading a little too much into things, but is it just us or does this season seem to be the beginning of the end for Philip Rivers as a Charger, or perhaps even in the NFL? Rivers has shown he can still make plays and deliver victories, yet something just appears off in general.”
All of the talk the day after was basically suggesting that the end is near for Rivers, which when you watched that performance is hard to argue.
WEEK 12 PLAYS:
The public killed the sportsbooks in week 11 and while we don’t try to figure out what the casinos are doing, it is reasonable to think that they’ll hit back a little bit in week 12. For this week we’ve got three games against the spread, one O/U and one teaser that we’re hoping to get back on track with.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Miami Dolphins (2-8) ATS(5-5) at Cleveland Browns (4-6) ATS(3-6-1)
Sunday November 24th
1:00pm
FOX
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
There wouldn’t be a ton of interest in seeing what happens in this AFC tilt with the exception of the fact that people are curious to see how the Browns will respond after the Myles Garrett helmet-swinging debacle from last Thursday. The Dolphins continue to play hard despite their record and whether or not they can leave the sunny skies of South Florida and carry that effort into the gray skies of Cleveland is anyone’s guess at this point.
As crazy as it sounds, and despite the totals in the win column, this is likely Ryan Fitzpatrick’s best and most impressive season in the league. Playing behind an offensive line sorely lacking in talent, with no running game to speak of, and minus some weapons at the skill position, he continues to push ahead and has even had the Dolphins competitive in most of their games. If you’re looking at how the Dolphins might be able to score against the Browns, you have to do some serious searching. It’s actually looking at their opponent that provides some optimism on how they’ll be able to get some points on the board. The Browns defense had started to play a little better over the last month or so, but they will be missing some really important pieces, including their best player in the suspended Garrett. The loss of Morgan Burnett was somewhat lost with what was going on with the defensive line, however that’s a big blow to their secondary. That’s not to suggest that the Dolphins are going to have an easy go of it by any stretch, just that they’ll be able to move the ball a bit.
The Browns offense started on fire against the Steelers hitting big plays and dominating at the line of scrimmage before they slid into a little rut. Baker Mayfield really said it well when he said that the Browns need to play a consistent and complete game from start to finish. Luckily for them, they’ll have a chance to do that against a defense that is just flat out not competitive against superior competition. Josh Allen earned AFC Player of the Week honors against Miami going up and down the field with an ease that the Bills haven’t seen in a long time offensively. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are set up to have huge days on the ground and this could be a spot where Odell Beckham Jr. puts up the statistics that fans and fantasy owners expected when he joined the team in the offseason.
The end of game fight last week (and win against the Steelers) actually seems to have re-energized the Browns organization and fanbase. We’re expecting the Browns to come out fast and play some inspired football on both sides of the ball. The missing starters on the defensive side of the ball should allow the Dolphins to at least keep this somewhat of a game for a while. Ultimately, the breakdown of this game is pretty simple. With a few extra days of rest and preparation and a renewed focus, the Browns offense should have their best game of the season against a completely outmatched Miami defense. We got burned a week ago with a teased over with the Browns, but we’re fully expecting them to hit the over this go around.
BetCrushers Take: Over 44 – Total
Cleveland Browns 34, Miami Dolphins 16
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (8-2) ATS(7-3) at San Francisco 49ers (9-1) ATS(5-4-1)
Sunday November 24th
8:20pm
NBC
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
There were some less than enthralling Sunday and Monday night games early in the season, however the week twelve Sunday Nighter is an absolute jewel for the league. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers hit the road to take on the 49ers in a game that will likely be a lot of fun to watch and have major implications in terms of the NFC playoff picture.
It’s difficult to even know where to start in breaking down this matchup on both sides, so we might as well start with the obvious in future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers at quarterback for Green Bay. Rodgers is no stranger to the big stage and he’ll undoubtedly be ready to put his talents on display against one of the fiercest defenses in the league. The Packers have benefited by really good offensive line play this season across the board and particularly with their veteran tackles David Bhaktiari and Bryan Bulaga. The Pack will face their toughest test as they’ll have to contend with the 49ers defensive line which is the most talented and deepest in the league. Throughout his career Aaron Rodgers has been one of the top quarterbacks against pressure posting a great QBR and almost inviting the blitz. This season has been different however as he has struggled with guys in his face, which makes his offensive line’s job on Sunday even more important. Another thing that has really helped GB this year has been the boost they’ve gotten in their running game as Aaron Jones is having a fantastic year and Jamaal Williams gives them a fresh backup who can catch passes out of the backfield. San Francisco has been stingy against the run and the pass so it will be interesting to watch the Packers adjust on offense if they struggle to run the football, which they very well may. If you are a Packers fan, you should also be concerned that the wide receivers in this game could struggle to win their individual matchups in the secondary and that includes the talented Davante Adams. We won’t forget or deny that this is Aaron Rodgers we’re talking about so he’ll no doubt find a way to make some plays and keep this team competitive no matter who he’s playing, but it may not be their best game of the season.
The injury report will play a big part in what the offensive gameplan might look for the 49ers like as several starters were absent from early week practices. The most important of which is their Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle who will technically be a game-time decision, however reports out of their camp aren’t encouraging. The encouraging news is the team will likely have Emmanuel Sanders back at wide receiver which would be a big boost for that receiving corp. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has gotten some high praise in his young career and it certainly seems deserved at this point in time. When you look at the Packers defense, Shanahan has to continue to stay disciplined and not try to overthink things in this game. His four-headed running back machine let by Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida needs to be fed often in this ballgame. The Packers have shown an inability to muscle up against strong offensive lines to be able to stop the run. Although Jimmy Garoppolo has proven he can make plays when the team needs him to, it wouldn’t seem like the best idea to have him dropping back a lot against the Packers outside edge rushers when he has shown a pattern of tossing interceptions. Make no mistake about it, Jimmy G is going to have to make some plays in the passing game so it can’t be all handing the ball off, but that definitely should be where the Niners lean in this game, and work some high percentage throws when needed.
KEY STATS – The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 prime-time games
We’ve generally subscribed to the “if you can get points with Aaron Rodgers you take them” rule of thumb, yet we’re going against that on this occasion. It’s not because Rodgers won’t make some amazing plays, or because we like Jimmy G and his players better, this has everything to do with defense and homefield advantage. The 49ers will be able to attack the Packers on the ground and expose their run defense while bullying them throughout the game. Rodgers meanwhile is one of the bigger home/away quarterbacks in the league as he’s nearly unstoppable at home, but a somewhat surprising 42-45 on the road straight up in his career. If you need evidence, look at how Rodgers and the Packers performed when they traveled west to take on the Chargers in a stadium that was dominated by their home crowd. Furthermore, the key stat above shows that the Packers haven’t been covering in night time big matchups. Because the Niners have looked pretty average the last couple of weeks in the minds of the public this line sits on the key number of -3 when it really should be closer to -5. If the 49ers don’t turn the ball over, their defense and running game should be able to get them the victory and the cover and play a key role in determining playoff seeding.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -3
San Francisco 49ers 26, Green Bay Packers 20
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
vs. 
Denver Broncos (3-7) ATS(6-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-3) ATS(6-3-1)
Sunday November 24th
1:00pm
CBS
New Era Field – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -4 (-110)
Over/Under 37.5 (-110)
If you’re into the classic type of NFL football this game is for you as two teams that want to run the ball and hit you on defense square off when the Broncos face the Bills. Denver is coming off of a crushing defeat where they squandered a 20 point lead to the Vikings, and the Bills return home after taking care of business and finding some offense against the hapless Dolphins in Miami.
It was a tale of two halves for the Broncos last week as their offense was fast, creative and dynamic early on before becoming a little boring and predictable later in the game against Minnesota. The positives were that Brandon Allen played a decent game against a good defense, Phillip Lindsay found success on the ground, and Courtland Sutton continues to evolve into a quality wide receiver. When you look at this matchup against the Bills it sets up nicely for Phillip Lindsay as the Bills have struggled to slow down powerful running backs, which is exactly what Lindsay is despite his height. For the Broncos to win this game they’re going to need to run the ball plain and simple. The Bills defense has been as good as anyone in the league at defending the pass and Tre White will likely draw, and slow down Sutton at wide receiver. The Bills pass rush will play a big part in whether or not they can dominate the Broncos as well. The Bills grouping of Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy and Shaq Lawson have all played solidly yet not spectacularly all season. If they can generate pressure and or turnovers with Denver’s young QB it could be a long day, however if the Broncos offensive line can hold up, this game should stay close throughout.
Brian Daboll the Bills offensive coordinator got the fans and media off of his back for a week as his offense put up 37 points and Josh Allen was named AFC Player of the Week. The Bills are hoping it was a stepping game for Allen where he can continue to build and develop into a top tier franchise quarterback. Let’s slow down for just a minute as we have to look at who Allen was carving up a week ago in Miami. Allen will need to be sharp as Denver has played surprisingly well on defense all season despite not having Bradley Chubb in the lineup. One of the most effective pieces of the Buffalo offense has been Allen’s ability to use his legs when necessary to convert first downs and in the red zone. Denver’s match-zone will make it tough for Allen to have that success as he’s generally been exploiting man to man coverage to break his runs. As is the case with Brandon Allen and any young quarterback, the Bills will also benefit if they’re able to run the ball against the Broncos, something that most teams have not done a great job with this season. Devin Singletary has taken over RB1 duties and has the shiftiness and big play ability the team needs, yet it could be Frank Gore who sees a little more work this week if this does indeed end up shaping up to be a smashmouth football game. In the receiving game, the Bills got a huge day from the super consistent speedster John Brown who will likely see a lot of Chris Harris, Jr. in the Denver secondary. Look for Cole Beasley to have a big impact with short quick passes as he could potentially see 8 or 9 targets this weekend. And of course you can’t talk about a Bronco game without mentioning the importance of containing Von Miller, something the Bills will try to do with two relatively young tackles in Dion Dawkins and the rookie Cody Ford.
KEY STATS – Over 60% of the public money is on Buffalo
If you’re simply looking at records laying four points doesn’t seem bad as fans were watching the Bills steamroll the Dolphins a week ago all while watching the Broncos completely collapse in a game they should have won. Look closely at each teams games, and not just the fact that the Bills have still yet to defeat a team with a winning record. The Broncos could realistically be 7-2 at this point in the season had things fell their way a little differently. You can call that “ifs and buts” all you’d like, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Broncos are a better team than their record indicates, while the Bills are basically the opposite. Throw in the fact the Bills have their only nationally televised game coming up four days later with a trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving and they may not be entirely ready for the “meager” Broncos. Unless the Bills can force an abundance of turnovers, which is something they haven’t done much of this year, this game will probably come down to the wire. Getting more than the key number of three in a game like that is the right move as it’s very possible the winner here ends up ahead by three points as time expires.
BetCrushers Take: Denver Broncos +4
Buffalo Bills 21, Denver Broncos 20
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) ATS(5-5) at Los Angeles Rams (6-4) ATS(7-3)
Monday November 25th
8:15pm
ESPN
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, CA
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-120)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
The AFC and NFC do battle on Monday Night Football as the Ravens look to extend their winning streak in Los Angeles against a Rams team that needs to win to stay in the hunt in the stacked West division. Baltimore very much has established who they are and want to be as a football team while the Rams still seem to be learning how to win games in a variety of different ways.
Anyone who thought that Lamar Jackson would fizzle out as a running quarterback in this league needs to go ahead and admit they were way wrong on this. Alright, full transparency, we weren’t sure that Jackson would be able to turn his athleticism into MVP type quarterbacking and we were wrong in that estimation. It’s not just the jaw dropping runs that are so impressive, but his ability to find the right matchups and throw the ball with touch that have made this season so special for Jackson. After beating up the vaunted New England defense he’ll have another tough assignment as he’ll have to figure out how to deal with Aaron Donald and a very talented LA defensive unit. Much like they did against NE, John Harbaugh will need to have a creative running attack to keep the Rams off balance to get things going. Expect more big games from the Baltimore tight end group as their receivers have tough matchups with Jalen Ramsey and Troy Hill on the outside. Wade Phillips is likely going to use his speedy linebacker Corey Littleton as a spy to contain Lamar Jackson and we’ll see if that can slow him down at all. With all eyes on Jackson, the battle of the bigs on this side of the ball particularly could go largely unnoticed, yet will be extremely important to the outcome of this game. It’s hard to really pinpoint who has the advantage there so it could come down to who wants it more?
Watching the Rams against Chicago you may have heard Cris Collinsworth mention something very interesting regarding their plan to block differently and simplify things in the running game for Todd Gurley and it worked as he had his best game this season so far. They could continue that, however they’ll find it’s not very easy to push around the Ravens run defense, which can make for a long day for Jared Goff as much of his and the teams success tends to come off of the running game. While LA’s offensive line performed well against a tough Bears defense, they’ll have to play even better against a Baltimore defense that has been getting better as the season has progressed. Some good news for the Rams is it looks like they’ll have their wide receiver trio back in tact as Brandin Cooks has been cleared from his previous concussion and we assume Robert Woods will be back in the lineup after disciplinary actions. That makes a huge difference for this offense as they’re able to do so many different things and Cooks can really stretch the field opening things up for Cooper Kupp who struggled a bit being the lead dog without a lot of help. The Raven secondary is playing well and with the addition of the former Ram Marcus Peters is now deep and can match up in three receiver sets. Goff has not done well against good defenses going back to the end of last season and his quarterback ratings are mixed in around Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton on the year. In case you forgot, those guys got benched. This could be a statement game for Goff to silence some critics if he can play well, but that’s clearly a big “if”.
KEY STATS – The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games as an
underdog
– The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
This Rams team is living off of last year’s glory and star power and the fact that they’ve been able to tread water about .500 on the season. In reality, this team is struggling to find it’s way despite having some of the most talented players in the league. Meanwhile, this looks like another stop on the Lamar Jackson world MVP tour as he’ll likely have to carry the offense against the Rams defense. The Ravens defense has come on in recent weeks and they should be able to hold the Rams down enough to come away with the win. In addition to passing the eyeball test with these two teams, the trends don’t lie as the Ravens have been a spread beater on the road since Jackson took over at quarterback. Shop around for this line as it’s either -3 or -3.5 depending on the sportsbook and you’ll obviously want to protect yourself in a potential field goal game, but it shouldn’t matter as we’re riding with the Ravens until they give us reason to doubt them.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -3
Baltimore Ravens 27, Los Angeles Rams 20
Teaser Bet
Indianapolis vs. Houston and Seattle vs. Philadelphia
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (6-4) (3-6 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (6-4) (5-4 ATS)
Thursday November 21st
8:10pm
FOX, NFL Network
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Houston Texans -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks (8-2) (5-5 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)(4-6 ATS)
Sunday November 24th
1:00pm
FOX
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
A crucial game in the AFC South and an equally important game in the NFC provide an opportunity to tease in the direction we like to get point totals that make a lot of sense. Indianapolis takes on Houston in the Thursday Night Football contest and Seattle travels across the country to play a desperate Philadelphia team needing a win.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: INDIANAPOLIS +9.5 and SEATTLE +7.5
We’ll admit we were pretty surprised to see the Colts absolutely dismantle the Jaguars a week ago, especially playing without some key contributors. They’ll have to do that again this week as they lost Marlon Mack to a fractured hand as he was having one of the best games of his career. On the positive side, it looks like T.Y. Hilton will return to the lineup which is a huge boost to the skill positions that quarterback Jacoby Brissett has to work with. Speaking of Brissett, he just continues to play at a quiet high level and find ways to get his football team W’s. The Texans defense was dismantled by Lamar Jackson so you know in this critical game they will be playing at their best. The question with this defense is, how good can they really be, particularly without their leader J.J. Watt? The Colts will look to get their backup running backs going, but it could be Hilton or perhaps one of their tight ends, as Houston has struggled to cover opposing tight ends that need to make plays Thursday. (Eric Ebron may not be able to go). Without Watt, the advantage in the trenches has to go to the Colts offensive line that continues to play well both with run blocking and pass blocking.
You can look back and say it isn’t surprising that the Texans defense was lit up against Baltimore, however it was absolutely a little stunning to see them struggle to get anything going on offense. In fairness, they should have had an early first and goal as we all saw and agree DeAndre Hopkins was mugged at the goal line in what should have been an obvious pass interference call. Maybe that changed the trajectory of the game, and the fact remains Houston could do very little the rest of the way. It won’t be a walk in the park this week either as Carlos Hyde will have his work cut out for him against the Colts run defense that continues to play well. Houston needs to rely on Deshaun Watson to use his athletic talents to make plays outside of the pocket and with his legs. This game is too important to force the passing game if it’s not there. DeAndre Hopkins will make his share of catches as he always does, but make no mistake about it, this game is about Deshaun Watson carrying this team to a crucial divisional win.
The Seahawks enter a tough road game against Philadelphia still soaring high and knowing if they can win it will put a lot of pressure on the 49ers to win a tough contest against Green Bay on Sunday Night. Seattle doesn’t change their offensive philosophy up much week to week and despite a solid Eagles run defense they’ll try to force the issue with Chris Carson and the running game. That could put Russell Wilson in some tough third and long type situations, which is not where the Hawks tend to excel. Eventually Wilson will need to get the ball to his receivers and attack the Eagles secondary, which has played much better since getting Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills back in the lineup. He’s absolutely capable of doing it, and if the Seahawks want to steal a road win, this game is all about Russell Wilson. He’s been on a crash course all season long with a few other guys for MVP consideration and this is the kind of game that can elevate or knock a candidate back depending on the outcome.
Carson Wentz and the Eagles are in an offensive slump that is largely due to a lot of important missing pieces to what was supposed to be an explosive offense. The do have a chance to make things right against a Seahawks defense that is ranked 24th coming into this game and has had their own problems in the secondary throughout the year. While it’s obvious that not having DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery has hindered their play calling, a big loss in this game is right tackle Lane Johnson who it looks like will miss this one in the concussion protocol. The strength of this Seahawks defense is their ability to push the outside of the pocket and Johnson’s absence could loom large here. While the Seahawks have been average at stopping the run, Jordan Howard should return from injury and pair with rookie Miles Sanders to have a good day. With the uncertainty at the tackle positions, the quarterbacks best friend would be a sound running game which is a possibility if Doug Pederson can stay committed to it. Wentz would also be wise to lean on tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert as Seattle has struggled covering the deep middle of the field all year. Vegas expects this game to throw a bunch of points up so this will be very telling for Eagles fans on whether or not this team has some firepower left for the stretch run, or if they’re simply going to fizzle out.
KEY STATS – The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 AFC South road
games
– The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as an
underdog
– The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against
the Seahawks (lost all 4 straight up)
If you don’t trust our analysis of these matchups perhaps the trends listed directly above may paint a clearer picture of why we like this teaser. The Colts have played everyone close this year as all of their losses have been by 6 points or less. In a division game on a short week, this has the makings of a close battle that will be won at the end so the 9.5 points should be enough to hold up for them. The public is hammering Seattle right now and it’s hard to blame them as they very well could win this game outright. As is the case with the Colts, how often does Russell Wilson ever get blown out of a football game? Even if the Seahawks defense gets torched by the struggling Eagles offense, Wilson should be able to keep this game within a score.
