Round 3 of the NASCAR Playoffs is here and the eight drivers still in the mix are staring down the O.G. short track of the Cup Series circuit: Martinsville Speedway. With rain in the forecast, Mother Nature may have the final say when the green flag will fly. Regardless, it’s time for the BetCrushers final NASCAR handicapping at Martinsville.
And Then There Were Eight
The First Data 500 is the first of four races capping off the 2019 NASCAR season. Martinsville is the short track representative in Round 3, testing the wills and stamina of the drivers. This is especially relevant for the eight remaining drivers in Championship contention. Denny Hamlin topped off a huge day on the short track Saturday by snagging the pole, putting the #11 team in great position to gain ground in the playoff standings.
Joe Gibbs Racing is well-positioned to get at least two teams into the final race at Homestead with Kyle Busch, MTJ, and Denny Hamlin occupying the top three slots in the standings before the Martinsville race. It’s guys like Logano, Harvick, and Elliott that will be scrapping for every stage point and playoff point they can get over these next three races. For Elliott backers like ourselves, this scene from the early practice session was troubling:
Surveying the Odds
Denny Hamlin laid down the fastest lap in qualifying after strong practice sessions earlier in the day. One advantage of Denny snagging the pole is a favorable pit stall on Martinsville’s unconventional pit road. Although the #9 team’s engine issues cost them a starting position on the front row, their consolation prize for qualifying 2nd is a very good pit stall.
Saturday’s practices and qualifying shuffled the top of the odds board a bit. Hamlin flip-flopped with Kyle Busch as the favorite, while MTJ lost some value going from +660 to +540. Elliott’s move from +770 to +670 reflects some support despite his engine troubles and poor starting position. Outside of the top five, drivers like Keselowski, Harvick, and Bowyer offer double-digit returns if you’re willing to take the risk.
The BetCrushers Spotlight Drivers
Our race preview spotlighted four drivers who caught our attention early in the week. When you think Martinsville, there’s two guys who have absolutely owned this track in recent years: Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Kyle hasn’t finished outside of the Top 5 since 2014 and Brad has been almost as dominant.
Both of these Cup Series mainstays have each won here twice since 2016 and could be considered shoe-ins to finish in the Top 5 again today. Kyle didn’t run much in practice and qualified 13th, while Keselowski qualified 15th after putting in a middling effort earlier in the day. We didn’t make a move on either driver earlier in the week and will keep them off of our betting card this week.
Fellow playoff contender Chase Elliott and seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson rounded out our list of early-week spotlight drivers. Chase has shown flashes at Martinsville while Jimmie continues to grind it out on the Cup Series circuit. But wait, there’s more! If you follow our Twitter account or the NASCAR page on BetCrushers.com, you probably noticed that there’s another veteran on the radar this week.
Jimmie Johnson: Down, But Not Out
Some day in the near future, Jimmie Johnson will retire as one of the Cup Series’ most-decorated drivers in history. 2019 has been a year of change for the #48 team, starting with the Crew Chief. Long-time boss Chad Knaus parted ways with JJ in October 2018 after 17 years and seven Cup Championships together. Then, in mid-season, the team then moved from Kevin Meendering to Cliff Daniels.
This sudden change at the Crew Chief position was followed by a subpar run of zero Top 10 finishes that left Johnson out of the postseason for the first time since 2004. How did the #48 team respond? Jimmie finished 11th in the first playoff race at Las Vegas, then put in four Top 10s around a rough day at Talladega. That’s a veteran response we can appreciate.
Jimmie has been slightly better than the average driver at Martinsville since 2015. He was a beast on the half-mile in his heyday and last won here in fall of 2016. After that last win, JJ put in a 15th, 12th, 15th, 12th, and a disappointing 24th this spring. Ironically, he qualified 24th yesterday and will need to race his way toward the front to cash our matchup tickets.
Jimmie Johnson (+110) vs. Kyle Larson
To a degree, this is less about how high Jimmie will finish and more about who he is paired against. Larson outdueled him by six positions this spring but had fallen to the old man in the five races prior. Kyle has placed no better than 14th at Martinsville since the spring 2016 race. Larson put a ton of laps in during the second practice session and was about a quarter-second quicker on average in the long runs. Kyle qualified 14th yesterday and the oddsmakers adjusted the matchup price to Johnson +150 this morning. Johnson has held his own against Larson on race day in the postseason, making it worth backing JJ at +150.
Jimmie Johnson (-120) vs. Erik Jones
This is another situation where we’ve found a good bet-against driver to pair with Jimmie. Erik Jones hasn’t quite found his way at Martinsville, finishing 12th in his first Cup Series race here but doing no better than 17th since then. JJ outraced Erik in the next four Martinsville races and has topped him in all but one playoff race this year. Jones qualified 16 places ahead of Jimmie but did not log any long run work in practice. We were willing to lay a little juice to back Johnson in this consistently-positive matchup earlier in the week. We advise playing this matchup if Johnson is re-posted at plus-money.
Clint Bowyer: No Drop-off Expected
Remember when Bowyer was our favorite fade? We successfully faded Clint a few times this summer in the thick of the playoff chase. He’s a driver that has a range of tracks that are bad news for him, and those situations are where we pounced. We’re on the other side of Clint Bowyer this weekend despite his recent elimination from the NASCAR Playoffs.
This veteran had a long row to hoe in the postseason, seemingly playing from behind the whole way. Yet, Bowyer landed four Top 10 finishes in six playoff races after three straight Top 10s to finish the regular season. Will he feel the negative effects of elimination this week? Perhaps, though we don’t expect a significant drop-off from a less-seasoned driver like Ryan Blaney.
Clint Bowyer (-112) to Top 10
Not only has Clint been good throughout the postseason, he’s been solid at Martinsville in recent years. We tweeted this play on Friday morning after the Top 10 betting markets were solidified. The number has since moved from -112 to -118 after a strong Saturday. Since moving to the #14 Stewart-Haas team, he’s been money on this half-mile. Although he was positioned for a strong finish in last year’s fall race, he settled for 21st place. This was the lone blemish since 2017; a stretch that includes a win and three other Top 10s. Clint Bowyer looked very competitive on Saturday, making -120 or better to finish Top 10 a rock-solid play.
Chase Elliott: En Fuego
Maybe our perception of Chase Elliott as a Championship contender is skewed. He’s been clutch when he absolutely needed to be this postseason. Especially now that Chase is starting from the rear, his title pursuit demands a huge performance at Martinsville. Elliott is sixth in the playoff standings and is six points behind the final transfer spot held by matchup opponent Joey Logano.
Chase Elliott (-115) vs. Joey Logano
Logano won this race on his march to last year’s Cup Championship in the middle of a postseason run of five Top 10s in the first six playoff races. Three of those were Top 5s and the lone miss was a 14th at Richmond. We’d argue that Chase is playing the role that Joey did in 2018. The engine failure at Dover is Elliott’s only true miscue this postseason, accompanying his Roval win and a pair of Top 5s. Outside of Dover, Chase has outraced Joey in four of five playoff races and should top him again at Martinsville.
Joey Logano qualified 10th and looked very good in the final practice session. He was right next to Elliott in the 10-lap average but separated himself over the 15-lap and 20-lap averages. The #9 team had to work quickly to get the backup engine ready and it appears that Chase should be competitive in the race after qualifying 2nd. Can he work his way from the back of the field to outrace Logano? We cannot advocate laying the adjusted price of -180 in this matchup; either lay off or look at the Top 3 market to back Elliott.
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at Martinsville
- Chase Elliott (-115) vs. Joey Logano
- Jimmie Johnson (+110) vs. Kyle Larson
- Jimmie Johnson (-120) vs. Erik Jones
- Clint Bowyer (-112) to Top 10
