PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-2

SEASON RESULTS:
55-44

Week 17 Recap:

4 covers and 2 losses for the second week in a row for Prop Corner, moving our yearly mark to 55-44. We split our two bets on the Colts, as we had Jonathan Taylor under rushing yards, which barely held up, and lost with Philip Rivers over pass yards in what looks to be the final game of his illustrious career. We snuck out a cover with Trey McBride, who caught a boatload of footballs and just crept over his yardage total. We took a loss with Justin Herbert as we faded his passing yards, and he got over by about 20. It doesn’t matter, a loss is a loss, but we really feel like we were on the right side of that wager, but a 60 yard bomb to Quentin Johnston with a falling DB did us in there. Tony Pollard, much like Trey McBride needed the full sixty minutes to get over his yard mark, but he made it. And Brock Purdy was on fire for an easy cover in primetime. A lot of close wins, but it’s nice to be on the winning side of those.

Week 18 Preview:

The final weekend of the NFL regular season is here but there’s still plenty of meat on the bone in terms of player prop bets. Three of our selections are playing very meaningful football, including two on the Saturday slate. We’re fading one young QB, and backing the rest of our selections, running and receiving. Happy New Year!

Our Picks:

Bucky Irving – Over 58.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

It may be the regular season on paper, but the playoffs essentially start with the Panthers and Buccaneers with the NFC South title on the line. These teams will face each other for the second time in three weeks, with the Panthers looking to replicate their 23-20 victory. Tampa Bay’s offense has been sputtering a bit over the last six weeks, and that’s both the passing and running game. In truth, it’s been a somewhat tough year for Bucs’ running back Bucky Irving from the get go. After an impressive rookie season, Irving has battled injuries earlier in the year, and has only topped 70 yards rushing two times on the season. He’s also averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per carry placing him 52nd in the league at the position. So why do we like him here? We’ll look back to that earlier matchup with the Panthers, as our first indicator. That was one of Irving’s 70+ yard contests as he totaled 19 carries as the Bucs’ made a serious effort to run the ball. Other than last week’s clunker that Irving had against the Dolphins, Irving had averaged 18 carries and 63 yards rushing per contest in his previous six contests. That’s not a huge margin for error when the total is 58.5 yards, and when Tampa rotates their backs. But the Panthers have been more of a pass focused defense, and in a game that figures to be very competitive, Irving should have plenty of opportunities to get over this total.

Brock Purdy – Over 14.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks aren’t playing to get into the playoffs, however they have a ton at stake, most namely the top seed in the NFC. Niners QB Brock Purdy has been on a tear of late averaging nearly 300 yards passing in his last three games, all wins for his team. He’s also averaged 27 yards rushing in those games, which is the prop we’re keying in on in this matchup with Seattle. Purdy has the athleticism to move around, and like many good quarterbacks, he knows when he should take off and scramble. If you look at his trends, not surprisingly, Purdy has not run when he hasn’t had to. In some blowout games, against the Browns and Cardinals, Purdy was a non-factor on the ground. However, in his closer contests he’s actually run quite a bit. It was week one of the season, so not a lot to take away there, but he did put up 17 yards on the ground against the Seahawks in their first contest. We’re expecting a close divisional battle, where these teams will be doing everything they possibly can to win. That will include Purdy using his legs when he needs to, which should push him over this do-able total.

Rhamondre Stevenson – Over 33.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The New England Patriots have clinched the AFC East but still have seeding opportunities in front of them. They need to take care of business against division foe Miami, which is something they should be able to take care of. It’s not as though the Dolphins are a complete pushover, but with Quinn Ewers at quarterback, there is a reason the Pats’ are heavy favorites. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been a bit of a forgotten man in the New England offense with rookie TreVeyon Henderson taking over the starting role. As the team’s RB2, he’s actually been quite a bit more effective averaging over 6 yards per carry and 40 yards per contest over the last month. It can be a little concerning to take an over when there isn’t a guarantee of a ton of volume, however the efficiency has clearly been there. The Dolphins have been better of late, but still have one of the lower ranked run defenses in the league on the season. Additionally, if the Patriots are able to get a lead, there’s a good chance Stevenson could get some additional work, along with some others for New England. With his last four games producing 40, 50, 51, and 47 yards, respectively, we’re thinking he can eclipse 33 yards on Sunday.

Quinn Ewers – Under 197.5 Yards Passing (-115)

It would appear the Tua Tagovailoa era is over in Miami, and for the immediate future, that means Quinn Ewers is leading the charge for the Dolphins. He’s got a tall task to close out the season as he’ll head to New England to face a Patriots team fighting for top seeding space in the AFC. It won’t help that Ewers will be playing in some pretty chill elements in the northeast. Ewers has actually been decent in his starts, which include tossing a pair of touchdowns last week in their win against the Buccaneers, and throwing for 266 yards the previous week against the Cincinnati Bengals. His total for the season finale is resting under 200 yards, which is certainly not an unattainable target, but we’re going to need to see it to believe it. Performing solidly against the Bengals and the Buccaneers is one thing. Going into Foxborough in a game that means a lot to the Patriots is an entirely different situation. Head coach Mike McDaniel has had his team playing hard, even after postseason elimination, but let’s see how motivated they are to play in freezing temperatures, knowing vacations are just on the other side of the day. Let’s see if Ewers can earn this one. We don’t think he will.

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