PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3

SEASON RESULTS:
46-36

Week 14 Recap:

There were a handful of things that seemed to go the way we envisioned in week 14, but also several that didn’t play out as we expected. That resulted in a losing 2-3 record on the weekend. Breece Hall was our big miss, as he simply never got anything going. The Jets as a whole were rarely on the field which didn’t help. We followed like sheep to slaughter with Chase Brown, and he surprisingly didn’t amass much on the ground against the Bills. In that same game, we fell just a few yards shy in backing James Cook, but falling short by 1 yard or 100 is all the same here. Our two wins were relatively easy. Trevor Lawrence had a solid game start to finish and made it over his yardage total. And the rushing yards on Patrick Mahomes, which was our favorite bet, cruised by with ease. No celebrating though as we gave some profits back.

Week 15 Preview:

Five seems to be our number of player props the last couple of weeks, but we need to come out ahead this weekend. We have a couple of new entrants on our card, and a few that you’ve seen before this year if you’ve followed Prop Corner, including a duplicate bet from a week ago. Best of luck to you with your week 15 wagers!

Our Picks:

Ashton Jeanty – Under 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

When you’re drafted in the top ten as a running back there are lofty expectations that come with the selection. It’s easy to say that Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty has not lived up to those expectations if you strictly look at box scores. Jeanty is averaging only 51 yards rushing per game, and that number has been in a steady decline over the last six weeks. If you’ve watched the Raiders you’ve certainly picked up on the fact that this team simply cannot block with a very poor, and banged up offensive line. Jeanty ranks near the bottom of the league in yards before contact, meaning he’s essentially got no shot to be productive. He’ll take on an Eagles defense that has not been great against the run, and also will likely be without top defensive tackle Jalen Carter again this Sunday. That might tempt you to take an over with Jeanty, but this is a game where script can play as much of a part as anything. For starters, the Raiders will be starting Kenny Pickett at quarterback, which is not going to scare defensive Vic Fangio at all in the passing game. The veteran defensive coordinator knows the key to slowing things down for the Raiders is to keep them from getting their running game started. The Eagles offense, coming off of an insanely bad performance from Jalen Hurts should rebound in this contest, and control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. As double-digit favorites, the running game for Las Vegas could be a non-factor in the second half of this game. Jeanty has not topped 50 yards in the last four games, and only once in the last seven. It’s a stretch to expect him to be able to hit this total in week fifteen.

Drake Maye – Over 232.5 Yards Passing (-115)

There’s been some buzz around the fact Patriots quarterback has not thrown for 300 yards in a game in his young career. That seems like a whole lot of nothing noise as he consistently is over 250 yards week in and week out. Maye is second in the league in passing yards, and has not had a game under 200 yards yet this season. With the exception of a game where he didn’t really need to throw against the Titans, he’s been over 260 yards in 8 of his last 9 games. Sunday he faces AFC East foe Buffalo, who ranks in the top 3 in passing defense. That stat is a little misleading however, as the opponents have simply run the ball so much on the Buffalo run funnel defense. In their first meeting in Orchard Park, Maye was surgical throwing for 273 yards in an upset win. Additionally, the Bills defense will potentially be without their top 3 players, as Ed Oliver and Joey Bosa will both miss the contest, and top cornerback Christian Benford looks unlikely to play with a late toe injury during practice Thursday. The Bills have been better against the run the last 3 weeks, which means New England can’t just hand the ball off repeatedly. Look for Maye to be near his season average of 261 yards in this important game, leaving a healthy cushion for his over.

Mark Andrews – Over 32.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

For the remaining four games of the season, it’s almost certain we’re going to be backing whatever starting tight end is playing the Cincinnati Bengals. It hasn’t been a great season for the Ravens Mark Andrews, but with a new extension in hand, it’s clear Baltimore values what the proven veteran tight end can do for Lamar Jackson and the offense. Andrews will take aim at the historically bad defense at defending opposing tight ends in a must-win game for the Ravens against Cincinnati. Andrews numbers have been a bit up and down this season, but he did put up 47 yards just a couple of weeks ago when these teams met. If we’re being truthful, this bet is less about Andrews and more just a complete fade against the Bengals inability to defend tight ends. If you need any more motivation to consider this over, the Bengals offense looks great behind Joe Burrow (and really all season). The Ravens are going to need to push the ball and score points to win this game, which means we’ll need to see some passing downfield for Lamar Jackson. Operation fade the Bengals starts Sunday.

Jahmyr Gibbs – Over 41.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

There are five or six difference-maker running backs in the league currently, but perhaps none more talented than the Lions Jahmyr Gibbs. His combination of speed, power and vision may be unmatched, in a capacity we haven’t really seen since former Lion Barry Sanders. Gibbs and the Lions will be fighting for their playoff lives against a very good LA Rams team on Sunday in a game they have to find a way to win. That will result in a lot of Jahmyr Gibbs on offense, which is the best plan a team can have. In addition to the three traits we mentioned, Gibbs has developed into one of the top pass-catching backs in the entire league. Over the last month of the season, his receiving has nearly outweighed his rushing. The Lions like to get Gibbs out into space where he can really do damage in the open field. Since head coach Dan Campbell has been more involved in the offensive play calling, Gibbs has averaged near 8 targets a game, and has turned that into an average of nearly 60 yards receiving per game. The Rams boast one of the top pressure rates of defenses in the league, which means the Lions are going to have to rely on some quicker passing, which should benefit Gibbs. The Lions are also near 6 point underdogs, which means they could be in pass mode in the second half if they’re trailing. There’s of course no guarantee Gibbs will go over this mark, but if there is every any player you’ll feel comfortable backing, he’s certainly near the top of that list.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 21.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The sportsbooks just seem to not want to go over a certain amount for rushing yards for Patrick Mahomes this season, no matter how much he’s been running. We cashed this prop a week ago, and it actually came attached at a yard higher than it is set in this matchup against the Chargers. Kansas City once again finds their playoff hopes on life support, needing a win against the Chargers to sustain some life. Patrick Mahomes has never lost 3 games in a row, something that would happen if the Chiefs cannot defeat the LA this weekend. We mentioned it a week ago, but when the Chiefs are in must-win mode, Mahomes does everything he can to try to win, which usually means running even more than normal. He’s run a lot this year, and a banged up offensive line should lead to some more scrambles again on Sunday. Mahomes will also be without Hollywood Brown, and with a banged up Xavier Worthy, potentially making the passing game a little weaker as well. All of this should lend itself to the QB running a lot. With a number he’s routinely beat this year, we’ll go ahead and play it again, and for the second straight week.

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