PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-0

SEASON RESULTS:
44-33

Week 13 Recap:

It had been way too long since our last clean sweep so it felt good to hit all five of our posted wagers for week 13 in the NFL. Our first pick was fading Justin Jefferson, due to the instability at QB for the Vikings, and that was a sweat free cash, as the star receiver had just 4 yards on the day. We also faded Daniel Jones in a tough matchup on a hobbled leg, and while that one was a little sweatier, he fell a bit short there as well. Same went for Rico Dowdle, who got close to his yardage total, but was half a dozen yards shy, making our fade plays 3-0. We backed Bills running back James Cook with his receiving yards, and he eclipsed them early in the third quarter. We also backed TreVeyon Henderson in a favorable matchup against the Giants. This one looked “iffy” if not unlikely for much of the night, but in the fourth quarter he was able to break a long run and get over his yardage marker. They don’t all work out this way, but it sure would be nice if each week did.

Week 14 Preview:

It’s a positivity weekend for our player props as we’re taking overs on all five of our bets this weekend. What could possibly go wrong with that approach?? These players all have favorable matchups with reasonable numbers they consistently beat.

Our Picks:

Breece Hall – Over 94.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

The Jets season was essentially over before it got started in head coach Aaron Glenn’s first season, but that hasn’t stopped this team from scrapping during the last month or so. The team is playing hard, and the insertion of veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor into the lineup has provided some steady leadership and belief within the team, even with the loss of their big name talent. One name that was not moved during the trade deadline is running back Breece Hall, who has been a pretty consistent bright spot and performer throughout the season, and is closing in on a 1,000 yard rushing season. Add in a few hundred receiving yards to the mix, and when it’s all said and done if he finishes strong, he’ll have some pretty impressive numbers. This weekend he’ll face division rival Miami, in a game that should be your typical December contest in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Since week seven, in accordance with the injury to his running mate Braelon Allen, Hall is averaging over 16 carries per game, and three targets receiving. Tyrod Taylor is one of the “safest” quarterbacks in the league, and isn’t afraid to check the ball down as often as he needs to. The Dolphins have actually tightened up their defense, but they’re anything but elite. They’re still near the bottom against the run allowing nearly 5 yards per carry on the year. With the Dolphins offense not as explosive as it was, this should be a close back and forth type of game. Hall’s workload, as well as his potential big play ability should be enough in this contest to get him over 100 total yards.

Trevor Lawrence – Over 219.5 Yards Passing (-115)

We’re guessing we aren’t the only ones who didn’t expect Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to be battling the Colts this late in the season for first place in the division, but that’s one reason why the NFL is king. Lawrence has had an up and down year, and it seems like every game is a bit of a rollercoaster for the former number one overall pick. One thing we know is he should have his most loaded arsenal of weapons on offense Sunday as Jakobi Meyers now joins a healthy Brian Thomas, Jr. and tight end Brenton Strange, giving Lawrence some firepower to throw to. The Colts have been pretty stingy on the ground, and although not bad against the pass, they’ll again be without their hot trade acquisition of Sauce Gardner in this contest. This game has potential to have some points for both squads, which means Lawrence should need to throw the ball quite a bit. Other than a two week lull in weeks 10 and 11 when he faced the tough Texans defense, and had a blowout win against the Chargers, has pretty routinely gotten over this number. It’s obviously a different season, but it can be noted Lawrences highest yardage game a season ago came at home against the Colts. A healthy offense, a potentially favorable game script, projected nice weather, and results that are averaging above this total make this a play for us.

James Cook – Over 119.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

If you read our article from last week, no this James Cook breakdown isn’t a copy/paste, although it may as well be. Last week, with the absence of key players on offense, we wagered on James Cook going over his receiving total out of sheer necessity. Someone has to catch passes, right? Here we are again, with a little variation this go around. We’re taking his total yardage in a game where he could see 20+ carries, and be a viable check down option in the passing game. Cook has been a solid 100 yard rusher in seven games this season, and he’ll face the fourth worst run defense in the league against the Bengals. As was the case a week ago, Buffalo will be without wide receivers Joshua Palmer and Curtis Samuel, and his top weapon Dalton Kincaid is a true 50-50, and looked hobbled in practice this week. As a result, look for the Bills to have a similar game plan against the Bengals, which is basically load up a bunch of blockers and hand Cook the ball. When they do need to throw, Allen will have to hit some easy throws, as a banged up offensive line, and wide receivers that simply cannot get open will force his hand. If you want to really simplify this wager of backing Cook: This team has one realistic weapon and option on offense, against a bad defense, and that’s James Cook. The yards have to come from somewhere, and Cook is the obvious answer.

Chase Brown – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Many sports bettors like to fade the public, and if you’re one of those people, this Chase Brown over is definitely not for you. Everyone seems to be backing Brown in the matchup against the Bills, and it’s so ridiculously hard to argue against it that we’ll go down with the public here if we have to. After a terribly slow start to the season for Brown, he has quietly been putting up some nice performances over the last seven weeks. He’s topped this rushing total in six of those seven games averaging nearly 70 yards per contest. Much like his opponent James Cook has a juicy matchup, Brown also should feast against the Bills defense that is essentially right there with the Bengals in terms of futility stopping the run. With Tee Higgins back from his concussion, Joe Burrow will have his top two wideouts striking fear, and causing some soft zone coverage. There’s an obvious correlation, but the Bengals offensive line is actually coming together nicely after their own rough start to the year. Meanwhile, the Bills will be without 3 and possibly 4 of their defensive linemen in this contest, making their rotation and overall play weaker. Between the pass funnel defense Buffalo employs, and the improved play of Brown with all of these variables, it’s no wonder he’s such a popular player this week.

Patrick Mahome – Over 23.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

A lot of consideration came into backing Patrick Mahomes running the ball against the Texans this weekend, as the Houston defense is just downright nasty. They’re quick, strong, aggressive and well-coached, which has helped them dominate some good players, especially of late. That discipline can include taking away quarterback escape lanes, and linebackers with speed to matchup with running QB’s. Despite this, we’re still going to give it a go with Patrick Mahomes, in what is basically a must-win game for the Chiefs at home. Early in the season Mahomes was running a fair amount, but that had more to do with being with receivers like Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Lately, when he’s been running it’s more because he’s trying to put his team on his back and will them to victory. For several years, we’ve almost automatically wagered on Mahomes rushing numbers in playoff games, or big spots, as he’ll do anything he can to try to win football games. He’s rushed for 30 yards in both of is last two games as the Chiefs are in win-now mode. Sunday is basically a playoff game for both the Chiefs and the Texans, as he loser will find themselves with a steep climb the rest of the way. The Texans pass defense has been great all season, and they have arguably the top pass rush edge duo in the league with Will Anderson, Jr. and Danielle Hunter. If Mahomes is feeling pressure, look for him to escape the pocket, particularly on third downs or in the second half of the game.

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