Back to the normal mid-week spot for this week’s Breakdown although the rare weekend handicap actually came through without much sweat. The first five inning route was slightly less profitable than going with the full game though. Regardless, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-25-2025 heads west to Petco Park for an afternoon Solo Shot on this interesting full-day slate. BOL!
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES (SDP -150, 8)
M Gore (L) vs. N Pivetta (R)
There aren’t many ways you can poke holes in MacKenzie Gore’s game these days. After 2024’s statement season, many folks looked to 2025 as a Cy Young Award contending campaign. But the young southpaw is in shark-infested waters with Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler, and Logan Webb outpacing him for those honors. Gore is still a reasonable dark horse candidate with long odds to steal the hardware if he continues on his current trajectory. Regardless, the Padres expect to have their hands full this afternoon as he takes the mound. Taking notes from how the Dodgers got to him last week may not be the worst idea.
Anyone who knows how things work understands that MacKenzie’s 3-7 record is more indicative of the Nationals’ run support and bullpen than his abilities. Career-best strikeout (32.3%) and walk rates (7.1%) align the 26-year-old’s 2.93 FIP and 2.89 xFIP with a strong 3.19 ERA. The magic behind keeping opponents in check when they’re making 44.7% hard contact? Fire three different plus pitches at them. Gore is generating a 14.9% swinging strike rate that is 2.4% higher than the prior season, which was up a touch from the season before that. And the left-hander is still thriving with a high-BABIP baseline.
A Positive Change of Scenery
Veteran Nick Pivetta is in the midst of a career season on the West Coast bolstered by a low .264 BABIP and general home run avoidance. The right-hander is a mid-to-upper-3.00s producer with modest strikeout capabilities compared to today’s counterpart. Aside from a very successful outing in Arizona, Pivetta has had a tougher row to hoe compared to earlier in the season. A lack of strikeouts led to 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts. Seemingly any time the 32-year-old notches 6+ Ks this season, he delivers a quality start. That’s exactly what the Padres need today.
Both offenses have been producing at a higher level the last couple weeks without much aggression on the base paths. Washington’s top of the order is stacked with left-handed hitters in very good form. CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Luis Garcia Jr. posted 174 or higher wRC+ figures with a combined 7 home runs in the trailing 7-day period. And while Nathaniel Lowe hasn’t been overly successful in reaching base this past week, the big lefty still managed to mash 3 bombs. The Nats do not suffer from negative splits away from home either. Conditions at Petco Park figure to be neutral this afternoon. It is beautiful San Diego, after all.
San Diego’s lineup is returning to its early-season form where the team looked unbeatable – which they essentially were, starting the campaign with a 9-2 record. They benefit from the recent return of 2024 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Jackson Merrill from the concussion IL, who has gone 4-for-12 since. As expected coming into the season, however, the Friars’ weak side comes against left-handed pitching (season: .215/.297/.353). MacKenzie Gore is one of the tougher lefty starters out there who can accentuate this general weakness.
WAGER: Nationals First 5 Innings +107 (0.5u risked)
I went back to the first five innings route for a second straight featured handicap because of Washington’s starting pitcher strength. Neither bullpen is in great shape and the Nats are likely without their lone southpaw reliever, Jose Ferrer. On the flip side, San Diego has enough lefties in the pen to attack Washington’s weaker side after Pivetta exits. My potential return takes a significant haircut from the full game dog price around +130 but I want to roll with MacKenzie Gore and his lineup’s stronger attributes.
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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