There’s no shortage of story lines across the MLB landscape as we near two months into the 2025 season. Managers have been ousted, long winning and losing streaks come and gone, and several teams have begun to pull away from their division foes – for now, at least. Handicapping and betting has been relatively steady to date, although my second guessing the numbers has left some profit on the table lately. That’s a perfect segue for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-22-2025 where recent scars may get the best of me once again.
SAN DIEGO PADRES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS (SDP -120, 9)
S Kolek (R) vs. B Francis (R)
The Toronto Blue Jays are Exhibit A in my case against myself this season. Sure, the birds from north of the border have scratched their way back to a .500 record after their own ups and downs. Sunday was a great example of my bet falling short in a close contest, causing me to tighten up and pass on Tuesday’s shot home dog victory against Dylan Cease. I’ve also lost a couple when backing today’s starter Bowden Francis. Fortunately, I was “rewarded” for laying a run behind the less-reliable Kevin Gausman last night. Is my confidence in the Blue Jays restored, or is it fool’s gold?
Bowden Francis was slotted into the Jays’ rotation at the onset of the season after bouncing from starter to reliever and back to starter in 2024. The 29-year-old’s starting pitching debut last year was rocky to say the least, but his post-ASB return to the rotation was highly successful. In fact, Francis closed out the 2024 campaign with an impressive 2.92 ERA and .166/.221/.347 line against as a starter. But the seedy .173 BABIP underbelly led to a 4.21 FIP/3.92 xFIP that foretold this year’s regression to a degree. Strikeouts are down, home runs are up, and the resulting 5.63 ERA, 6.49 FIP/4.63 xFIP properly mark his struggles to date. Only 2 of his 9 starts have been homer free and 4 of those outings have yielded multiple long balls. The proverbial sledding has been undoubtedly tough.
Getting Up For the Occasion
Are the Padres ripe for a rebound this afternoon with Francis lobbing some sketchy secondaries? The market clearly says “yes” despite losing five in a row and producing runs at a bottom-of-the-barrel rate in the trailing 7-day period. Essentially every team goes through lulls like San Diego is right now. Zoom out to the last 14 days and this lineup looks much more palatable. As for their recent fielding woes, that’s another story altogether. Last night’s comedy of errors effectively buried any chance of a comeback.
SDP Offense, by Period & Split (2025)
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 2.9% | 23.4% | .252 | .200/.228/.297 | 47 |
| L14 Days | 7.2% | 18.1% | .298 | .261/.316/.410 | 105 |
| v RHP | 7.9% | 18.5% | .302 | .261/.324/.394 | 105 |
| Season | 8.3% | 18.7% | .298 | .257/.322/.389 | 103 |
There’s little doubt that the Padres have one of the better lineups in the MLB, regardless of this recent downturn. The first 7 days of the trailing 14-day period was robust (.307/.377/.495, 145 wRC+). Robust is actually an undersell considering their 34 runs in two games in Colorado and 16 runs in a three-game home stand against the Angels. The latter 7 days have been stifled by a tough Mariners pitching staff and a peak performances by Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman. San Diego is primed for a resurgence and Bowden Francis is ripe for the picking.
Toronto also had a big first half of the last 14 days, though they did not tail off as severely as the Friars. Last night’s egregious 12-run output in the late innings significantly skews their numbers. Regardless, the Jays face aspiring starting pitcher Stephen Kolek and his 2.33 ERA. San Diego needs someone to hold off Toronto’s offense – much like Randy Vasquez did last night – while their bats make hay against Bowden Francis, right? It wasn’t until his third start of the season against a slumping Mariners lineup that he gave up any runs.
Kolek’s full arsenal delivers tons of ground balls via solid command. But the 28-year-old is susceptible to hard contact in the absence of highly-effective stuff. Where this matchup gets particularly interesting is Kolek’s reverse splits and Toronto’s more productive hitters straddling the handedness line. They’ve benefitted from strong performances by right-handers Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as lefty hitters Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes. Steven Kolek may find refuge against slumping hitters like George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Anthony Santander but can’t completely hide from the aforementioned sprinkled throughout the lineup. He cannot afford to sleep on Toronto’s bottom third.
S Kolek Handedness Splits (2024-2025)
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v LHP | 18.2% | 6.8% | .277 | .240/.303/.339 | 3.90/3.61 |
| v RHP | 19.5% | 5.2% | .326 | .326/.366/.458 | 3.70/3.31 |
| Combined | 18.9% | 5.9% | .337 | .286/.337/.404 | 3.79/3.45 |
Every indication is that Stephen Kolek is a solid, ground ball right-hander who hasn’t had enough innings (66.0) in his Big League career to draw significant conclusions from. Splits performance is relatively negligible against a Jays lineup receiving strong contributions from hitters on both sides of the plate. The pitching edge clearly goes to Kolek against a scuffling Bowden Francis yet is anything but decisive given their brief MLB track records. Both bullpens can put their best feet forward if the game state warrants, so no adjustments necessary there.
The question then becomes a matter of Toronto’s offense keeping pace with San Diego’s. A down week for the Friars can change in a hurry against Francis and his 21 earned runs in the past five starts. Regardless, I started a small position with the Blue Jays going headfirst into a buzzsaw. No overriding the numbers today for better or worse. It’s not your fault, Bowden, it’s mine :/
WAGER: Blue Jays +111 (0.4u)
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