I’ve slacked lately with getting handicaps out and definitely regret not having the time yesterday morning to break down a pair of really good pitching matchups out West. And, no, my absence has nothing to do with being on the wrong side of San Francisco’s “historic” 11th inning last Tuesday. With bad humor out of the way, we dive into an afternoon game in San Francisco for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-14-2025. I’ll be back Friday and/or Saturday for another one before heading out of town for a few. BOL!
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (SFG -110, 8)
E Rodriguez (L) vs. J Hicks (R)
Arizona/San Francisco was one of the aforementioned good pitching matchups last night – except for the fact that starters Robbie Ray and Brandon Pfaadt combined for 7 earned runs in what ended up as a 10-6 Giants victory. That says a lot for a San Francisco lineup slashing .231/.289/.362 over the trailing 7-day period. Both Pfaadt and Ray were in decent form coming into that game too. That’s baseball for ya.
Today’s starting pitcher matchup flips to the other side of the coin as Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Hicks have been in the giving mood. San Francisco’s right-hander posted four straight games of sub-3.00 FIPs with xFIPs no greater than 3.47. Note that three of those four outings have come at home against Colorado, Texas, and Milwaukee. Reality check: Hicks’ 5.57 ERA in this stretch comes by virtue of a whopping .391 BABIP. And none of the 13 earned runs came on behalf of the long ball. It’s been death by ground ball contact and the D-backs are all for it. As Paul Sporer commented in today’s starting pitcher chart, “When does Birdsong swipe this rotation spot from Hicks?”
ARI Offense, by Period & Split (2025)
| Slash Line | wRC+ | BABIP | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | .261/.329/.491 | 126 | .279 | 8.1% | 19.0% |
| L14 Days | .261/.330/.437 | 113 | .306 | 8.5% | 21.7% |
| vs. RHP | .251/.354/.467 | 121 | .279 | 10.2% | 20.8% |
| Season | .250/.331/.439 | 113 | .282 | 10.1% | 19.9% |
It should not be a surprise why Arizona has been so good against right-handed pitching. Left-handed hitter Corbin Carroll (.300/.373/.717) and switch-hitter Ketel Marte (.286/.405/.543) are feasting as expected. Yet it is platoon hitter Pavin Smith (.299/.419/.526) and new acquisition Josh Naylor (.318/.395/.533) who have been just as good against righties. Although Smith is in a relative rut compared to those season-long split numbers, Carroll and Marte are especially red hot.
The market doesn’t see this as a lopsided matchup and neither do my numbers. In fact, both starting pitchers have ERAs well above their underlying numbers as a result of getting knocked around beyond expectation. Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez has a 10.13 ERA over his last four starts, accompanied by a 6.69 FIP/5.12 xFIP. That rough look is a vast departure from his first four starts at 4.09 ERA, 2.47 FIP/2.52 xFIP. So why is this full game total firm at 8? Oracle Park tends to be a pitcher’s park but is not playing too far below its baseline this afternoon. Neither bullpen is handcuffed by availability issues* despite not having a day off for quite a while.
Is There a Case For the Over?
The asterisk in the statement above is a major caveat for Arizona’s bullpen. Double barrel closers AJ Puk and Justin Martinez are on the IL. Southpaw Puk has been sidelined for close to a month now after starting the season with a 6.00 K/BB ratio and 3.38 ERA, 4.48 FIP/2.83 xFIP. Martinez went to the IL retroactive to May 1st after dominating on face value (2.70 ERA, 4.60 FIP/4.30 xFIP, .182 BABIP). Since both have been on the shelf, Arizona relievers are on the hook for a 6.80 ERA and 6.42 FIP/4.42 xFIP. Last night they coughed up 6 runs after closing out Monday’s game with 2 scoreless innings. It’s a roller coaster with these guys – chicken one day, feathers the other.
To the contrary, San Francisco’s relief corps sits in the top half of MLB bullpens despite blowing Sunday’s game. Plus their lineup theoretically poses an easier challenge for the D-backs’ southpaw starter. Although Rodriguez more or less faltered against Miami, Milwaukee, and Washington – all of which hit left-handers about 10% lighter than righties. My game model is skewed by both starters’ ERA/FIP deltas and makes this a touch over the 8 if the home team does not bat. Unfortunately I am second guessing my totals after a lackluster first month betting them. This one could pull me off the fence though…
2025 Featured Handicap Results
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for our daily baseball handicapping and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL!
