Inclement weather was indeed a factor in Friday night’s AL East contest in the Bronx. Then again, so were the Blue Jays’ bats! But in my case nothing ventured, nothing gained with the scrappy underdog that evening. Now we shift to the AL West for a Texas-sized series that could keep the Astros and Rangers at bay while the Mariners grind against the Tigers. There’s only 50 games left in the regular season and the intensity is ratcheting up each week. So let’s dive into MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-5-2024 for the series opener in Arlington.
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers (HOU -125, 8)
Houston sitting just one game behind AL West leader Seattle says a lot about how this division race has tightened up significantly this summer. The M’s sizable lead has been steadily pared as the grind wears on. Plus the defending World Series Champions are fighting for their postseason lives with less than two months to go. They sit 5.5 games back of the AL West leader and a whopping 9.5 games out of the final Wild Card slot. It’s almost safe to say that the Rangers must overtake the division to keep their title defense alive.
Runs have been hard to come by for both lineups lately. Looking at the entire season’s body of work, the Astros hold a big slugging differential over the Rangers (.416 vs. .382) – a key factor in their 14% edge in park-adjusted offensive production. The proverbial row has been much harder to hoe for both clubs since the ASB break though.
HOU/TEX Offensive Production, Post-ASB
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 5.1% | 22.7% | .289 | .240/.289/.382 | 89 |
| TEX | 7.6% | 19.6% | .254 | .228/.290/.383 | 87 |
| MLB | 8.3% | 22.7% | .291 | .246/.315/.416 | 105 |
As you would expect, offense is up across the league in recent weeks as weather conditions continue to be conducive to scoring – especially over the last week or so. Houston’s core has been quiet outside of Yainer Diaz while the Rangers have their hands full with a big portion of their lineup struggling to produce. All of this is certainly subject to change at any moment with the caliber of hitters on the roster. With that in mind, I agree with the market’s total of 8 juiced to the over when it comes to my core projections. But the aforementioned struggles challenge the notion that both teams will combine for 9+ runs. Will tonight’s pitchers aid in an offensive comeback or keep things in check?
H Brown (R) vs. A Heaney (L)
Houston’s Hunter Brown has been a sneaky foundation piece of the rotation despite injuries, trades, and the emergence of relative unknowns like Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Sure, the 25-year-old righty has stumbled from time to time as most would expect. Last week’s 4-run affair versus Pittsburgh was just the second outing dating back to May 22nd that did not qualify as a quality start. 11 of his last 13 starts have gone 6+ innings with 3 or fewer runs. Year two as a full-time rotation member has resulted in a tick less strikeouts (25.3%) and slightly less ground balls (47.7%). However, the massive drop in hard contact from 2023 (12.5% less) is testament to an improved 4.11 ERA and 3.94 FIP/3.57 xFIP.
Veteran left-hander Andrew Heaney has been similarly competitive without going as deep into starts as his counterpart. Keeping the ball in the yard more reliably has been a boon for the 33-year-old in this rebound season. His envisioned role of gap filler has turned into a full-on rotation piece with decent results despite a 4-11 record. And his broader metrics mimic Hunter Brown’s for the most part (4.12 ERA, 3.86 FIP/4.28 xFIP). The suppressed home run rate is a key contributor to the higher xFIP though. Plus Heaney is more of a 5-inning guy at this point.
Late Game Opportunities?
The Rangers’ general struggles against right-handed pitching could be fading with the re-introduction of Josh Jung to the lineup. It’s clearly going to take more than the .235/.235/.471 slash line he’s put up since returning from a long stint on the IL though. Otherwise, Corey Seager and Josh Smith have been the only reliable hitters on the roster when it comes to facing righty pitching. Look for Astro right-handed relievers Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly to get the handoff if Brown again throws a solid 6 innings. Hunter’s longevity is essential to avoiding a clunky bullpen below the high-leverage trio that includes closer Josh Hader.
I put both bullpens on similar footing given their composition, recent form, and usage over the weekend. With the exception of veteran left-hander Kirby Yates, manager Bruce Bochy’s relief unit has enough decent hands on deck to fill in for 3-4 innings tonight. To be frank, there’s not much to read into either bullpen in this situation. A close game should bring out the best of both units in the attempt to close out a critical game one of this AL West showdown series.
My tendency would be to fade the recent offensive lulls but the market is not incentivizing the over 8 this morning. As for the prices to win the game, I have a core number in the range of even money to Houston -120. Not enough to lay it with the Astros; too little on the take back to stake a position on the short home dog. As much as I would like to have a position on this game, now’s the time of year to be more selective in my opinion – and that means being a spectator of this intriguing matchup. BOL!
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