Previous Week Record – 2-0
Season Record – 54-45-1
Previous Week Props – 1-4
Season Record Props – 88-57
Preview:
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Las Vegas with all eyes in the sports community, and the world on Super Bowl LVIII. The 49ers needed a major comeback against the feisty Detroit Lions in the NFC, while the Chiefs shut down the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC crown. The Chiefs are attempting to complete a difficult repeat as champions, while the 49ers are looking to regain their past glory with a sixth title in their history. The 49ers may have the better roster from top to bottom, but the Chiefs boast the best quarterback in the game, making this a potentially great matchup. With one final football game of the season, there’s one more opportunity to place some wagers, and hopefully come away with some season-ending winnings.
The spread for Super Bowl LVIII opened with the 49ers around a 2.5 point favorite at most books with an over/under set at 47 points. Early bets have favored the Chiefs, moving the line down to closer to 1 to 1.5 points as the public is not surprisingly now riding with Patrick Mahomes. Money then moved with the 49ers and as of Wednesday January 31st it’s settling around 2 points. With the emergence of large gambling entities across the world, there are no shortage of other bets to place if you don’t want to play the game against the spread. Will the Chiefs be able to go back-to-back and lock in the word dynasty, or can the 49ers find a way to exploit the Chiefs in a couple of areas where they have some blind spots?
Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (14-5) ATS(9-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) ATS(12-7-1)
Sunday February 11th, 2024
6:30pm EST
CBS
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
San Francisco 49ers -2 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
From the standpoint of the rosters for the Chiefs and 49ers, there’s a slight edge in favor of San Francisco. However, the Chiefs have some really important advantages as well, including the most important position on the field with quarterback Patrick Mahomes. A big question is whether or not an intangible, such as coaching or special teams could be a difference-maker in determining the winner?
Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs
Brock Purdy is going to receive more MVP votes for the 2023 season than Patrick Mahomes as a top five finalist, but at this point it’s widely understood the gap between Mahomes and the rest of the quarterbacks in the league, especially in the postseason is pretty large. Purdy came up big when he needed to against the Lions to help his team get to the Super Bowl, but despite Purdy’s success, this is the largest mismatch of all of the positions. That’s not a slight on Brock Purdy, who has proven to be a good quarterback, however Mahomes experience, clutch performances and abilities give the Chiefs a huge advantage where it matters the most.
Running Backs – San Francisco 49ers
If the 49ers are going to win this football game, it will largely be on the shoulders of their All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. The do-it-all back will play nearly all of the snaps in the game if healthy, and is the definition of great whether running, receiving or blocking. Not only can McCaffrey do work at the RB position for the 49ers, they also will sneak in some runs with Deebo Samuel, who is very difficult to bring down in the open field, and they boast the best fullback in the game in Kyle Juszczyk. The Chiefs are solid at running back, as Isaiah Pacheco has continued to run hard and be productive when the Chiefs have called on him. The 49ers defense can be run on, so Pacheco and backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire will also be names to watch. This is like the QB comparison above, with the opposite teams in command. The Chiefs are fine at RB, but the 49ers are elite.
Wide Receivers – San Francisco 49ers
At the midway point of the season this position group wouldn’t even be close, but the gap has at least narrowed a bit between the two teams. Make no mistake, the 49ers still have a major edge here, but it looks at least a slight bit better than it used to for the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s mainly due to the emergence in the second half of the season of rookie Rashee Rice, who has proven to be a legitimate weapon for Patrick Mahomes he can trust. It’s also got to feel good that Marquez Valdes-Scantling has held on to the ball and made some plays during the Chiefs strong playoff run. With that being said, these two, along with Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, and Richie James (or maybe Kadarius Toney) don’t offer the play-making abilities of the previously mentioned Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk for San Francisco. The Niners also leaned on Jauan Jennings as a valuable third receiver in the conference championship game and he produced when his number was called.
Tight Ends – Kansas City Chiefs
We had to split hairs more over the tight end position than any other for this Super Bowl, as you could argue Travis Kelce and George Kittle are some form of 1 and 1a of tight ends in the league presently. (There are a few other contenders for that spot). Kelce is arguably a slightly better receiver and route runner, while Kittle is a slightly better blocker at the position. The bottom line is they are both really good players, and both could have big roles in determining the outcome of the game. We gave the razor-thin margin to the Chiefs for the simple fact Travis Kelce has been on fire in the playoffs and has generally shown up in the biggest of spots. Kansas City also works in Noah Gray who is a capable 2nd tight end when they go with their larger personnel packages. Tough not giving Kittle the edge here for sure.
Offensive Line – Kansas City Chiefs
This one is really close as well as the 49ers offensive line is good, but the Chiefs are definitely a tick above them overall. Niners left tackle Trent Williams may still be the most dominant player even in his latter years, but the rest of their line is really pretty mediocre overall. Assuming Chiefs left guard Joe Thuney can return from his pectoral strain, we’ll give the nod to KC as their interior, led by Thuney and center Creed Humphrey are really strong. Even their maligned tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor have played better down the stretch of the season. Mahomes was basically untouched in his playoff wins against the Dolphins and Bills, and it took the Ravens a while before they finally got to him as well. Against a very good defensive line in San Francisco, the Chiefs offensive line will need to stand tough, and they can.
Defensive Line – San Francisco 49ers
The production doesn’t always seem to match the talent on paper, but the San Francisco 49ers have invested repeatedly in building a strong defensive line rotation during the tenure of Kyle Shanahan. When their starting four of Nick Bosa, Javon Hargave, Arik Armstead and Chase Young are on the field together, they have a pretty impressive pressure rate. That’s even with Chase Young getting some heat for what the coaching staff believes isn’t giving full effort on every snap. But with depth like Randy Gregory, Javon Kinlaw and Sebastian Joseph-Day, this line is deep and talented. The Chiefs most important defensive player is also on their defensive line, but Chris Jones is much more on his own in terms of wrecking a game. He can still absolutely do that, but if Trent Williams can secure the blind side, Jones will be double-teamed constantly, and there isn’t a lot of consistent push beyond the All-Pro.
Linebackers – San Francisco 49ers
The Kansas City Chiefs may have the deeper linebacking unit overall if Willie Gay, Jr. is able to return, as he and backup Drue Tranquill have both been valuable pieces for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Nick Bolton has battled through injuries this year, but is a very strong player in the middle and will be a key in this game slowing down Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers win this position battle because their top two players are absolute studs at linebacker. Fred Warner is one of the most athletic linebackers in the league who is strong enough to play against the run, and fast enough to drop in coverage, and tackles very well. Dre Greenlaw is one of the more underrated linebackers you’ll find as his aggressive play style can often set the tone for the defense in San Francisco. As you’d expect in a Super Bowl, good players on each team, but San Fran has the premier talent here.
Defensive Backs – Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs slot corner Trent McDuffie was named an All-Pro this season, and he honestly wasn’t even the best cornerback on his team. That honor belongs to L’Jarius Sneed who was a true shutdown corner for the entire season. With those two and veteran safety Mike Edwards in the lineup, paired with underrated Justin Reid, this secondary is really strong. They can lock up speedy wide receivers, and are still physical enough against bigger players as well. The 49ers secondary has not been good during 2023, particularly in the second half of the season. Part of that is due to the season ending injury to safety Talanoa Hufanga, which limits what the team can do defensively a bit. Former Chief Charvarius Ward is the best player of the bunch, but even he has struggled at times. The niners other corners are soft against the pass and don’t tackle particularly well either. The Chiefs have a big edge in the secondary.
Special Teams – Kansas City Chiefs
One thing that we’ve learned over the span of 57 Super Bowls is how impactful special teams can be in winning or losing the game. You can look at nearly a third of the outcomes of these games and directly correlate special teams to the final result. Measuring who has the advantage can sometimes be a little trickier as it usually requires a combination of some metrics, as well as a bit of the “eye-test”. Both breakdowns show that the Eagles and Chiefs are both very good on special teams, and very close. They’re nearly identical in DVOA and PFF rankings, and both within the top five. Each team has a reliable kicker and a veteran punter. We’re going to give an ever so slight win here to the Chiefs who’ve seen kicker Harrison Butker nail some clutch long field goals in his career, and a return unit that is a little more explosive and likely to break something long.
Coaching – Kansas City Chiefs
This wasn’t quite as close as the tight end battle, but it’s not often that San Francisco isn’t going to have the edge in the coaching department. But when it gets right down to it, who do you trust more in big games based on their track record, Andy Reid of Kyle Shanahan? Both are excellent play callers, and both do a great job of putting their respective teams in position to win. The big differences here are experience and the ability make the right calls in big moments, both of which Reid wins handily. The defensive side of the ball is the other area that tilts this in the favor of the Chiefs, as Steve Spagnuolo has had his guys playing top notch football all season long. Spags normally saves his best stuff for the playoffs and most important moments, so he gets the nod over the 49ers Steve Wilks, who just doesn’t seem to maximize the talent he has on his roster. As with most of these battles, it’s not that one side is bad (49ers), it’s just the other side (Chiefs) are better.
2023 Season Rankings Comparison
In studying pure metrics, these teams seem to balance out pretty evenly between them. As we pointed out above, that doesn’t really hold up when you dive a little deeper at each position. Both teams rank high defensively, with the 49ers clearly ranked higher on the offensive side of the ball. We’ll take a closer look at the matchups below:
THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:
The San Francisco 49ers offense has been a juggernaut in nearly every game they’ve played this season. The problem is, against the top defenses they faced, they were contained and even humbled. Think back to the game against the Cleveland Browns or the Baltimore Ravens as examples. Where these games anomalies, as they were banged up in bad weather against the Browns, and got behind early against the Ravens, or is this offense possibly not quite as good as they’ve been most of the year? As with anything, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, the question is which side is closer to the actual truth?
The 49ers offensive game plan is generally designed to dictate what happens to their opponent. Kyle Shanahan will generally be determined to control the ground game no matter what the strength of the opposition may be. That’s a good thing against a Chiefs defense that is far more vulnerable against the run than they are against the pass. The flip side is the Kansas City defense is generally also a unit that likes to force their opponents into playing a certain way behind coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. At some point in this game, the 49ers are going to have to throw the ball though, and how successfully they do that could be the difference between a win and a loss.
The 49ers offensive line is a solid, if not spectacular unit as a whole, anchored by still effective All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. The Chiefs edge rushers are a little thinner than they’d like entering the game as Charles Omenihu was lost to an ACL injury, leaving starters George Karlaftis and Mike Danna to fill that role primarily. Both are capable players, with Karlaftis showing some rush potential in his sophomore season, however the Niners should be able to stand up against them when throwing. This will force Steve Spagnuolo to have to bring pressure in an effort to rattle 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. The real key as it always has been with the Chiefs, is the interior push by All-Pro Chris Jones. The veteran is still a machine pushing the pocket, particularly on passing downs and while the 49ers will undoubtedly be working some double teams on him, he can still be a difference-maker. The weakest pieces of the offensive line for San Francisco are their guards Aaron Banks and Jon Feliciano, who are decent enough players, but have been beaten at times by better players. Chris Jones is often the key to the Chiefs defense, and in this game that importance is magnified even more as he has matchups he absolutely has to win. We focused a bit on the pass blocking, but really where this Niners offensive line can dominate is in their run-blocking. It’s a little bit of dominating, and realistically more of running back Christian McCaffrey’s amazing abilities. He routinely turns what should be one yard gains into four yard gains, and four yard gains into ten yard gains. And he still has the ability to take any carry to the house. The Chiefs rank in the bottom third of DVOA of run defense both in obvious rushing downs and non-running downs. That’s a huge advantage for McCaffrey and this running game, and on their offensive side of the ball, easily the key to their success. The 49ers average over seven yards per carry when teams play a light box, something the Chiefs do over a third of the time. Their defense is going to need to bring extra help down in order to contain McCaffrey. It will be very interesting to see if they’re stacked up early to stop McCaffrey, or if they give their standard defense a shot before making that adjustment.
Throwing the ball is going to be a little tougher for the 49ers against a Chiefs defense that was ranked third in DVOA throughout the season. The Chiefs play more man coverage than any team in the league, and if you enjoy watching individual matchups, there will be some great ones in this game. L’Jarius Sneed has been arguably the top shutdown corner in the league this season, and he’ll be tasked with doing a lot of single coverage against two of the league’s better receivers in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Sneed combines the rare speed and strength needed to matchup with the top receivers in the league, and as we mentioned the need above to key on Christian McCaffrey, he’s likely going to be on an island most of the game. The 49ers use a lot of motion and are one of the more creative offenses in the league, so don’t be surprised if they try to find some ways to get away from Sneed with one of their playmakers. It always feels like the wild card on the offense is tight end George Kittle, who will be asked to block a lot in this game. He’s a great run blocker in their scheme, however they may need to lean on him more in the passing game. The Chiefs boast a second really good cornerback in Trent McDuffie, and if he’s on the receiver opposite of Sneed, Kittle could prove to be a favorable target. McDuffie may actually see a lot of Kittle directly however as he rarely deviates from the slot corner position. If there is a weakness with the Chiefs pass defense, it is they tend to give up plays over the middle of the field. With linebacker Willie Gay, Jr. banged up, their depth could be tested in this area by Kittle, and even McCaffrey as a receiver. This is the ultimate chess match between Shanahan and Spagnuolo as each will be looking to create a matchup advantage on every series. It’s rare that the quarterback is talked about last in a breakdown, but the fact of the matter is Brock Purdy truly is the point guard in this contest. Purdy has shown the ability to carry the team, so that’s not a slight on his abilities, but his role in this game is to find the favorable matchup, and get the ball into that player’s hands. Against the disguises of the Chiefs defense, that’s not an easy task for a younger QB like Purdy. When he faced the Ravens, they brought what we’d expect to be a similar approach to what we’ll see with Kansas City, and that resulted in the worst game of his career. It goes without saying, but in a game that figures to be very close, Purdy absolutely has to value the football and cannot turn it over. We saw Purdy look surprisingly agile in the NFC conference championship game, and he may need to make some runs with his legs when that’s available. And lastly, remembering a punt isn’t the worse thing in the world for San Francisco, assuming their defense can hold up against the Chiefs.
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
Breaking down the Kansas City Chiefs offense had been relatively simple during the season, but it’s gotten a little tougher over the last few weeks. The reason simply being, they look like an entirely different team than they did during the regular season. Offensively, this team was stuck in neutral all year long, with dropped passes, sloppy pass protection and Patrick Mahomes often looking frustrated and inaccurate. Fast forward to their playoff win streak, and it almost looks like the Chiefs offense of old, when they were lighting up scoreboards to protect a porous defense. What has caused this, and which version will we see take the field on Super Bowl Sunday? Time will tell, but playing your third best offensive game in a row of the season is no small task. It’s certainly better to be on a hot streak than a cold one though.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid gets some extra time to prepare his offensive plan, and if you’ve followed the NFL for any length of time, you know that usually works out favorably for his teams. We’ll undoubtedly see some wrinkles in the offense, and a well prepared team taking the field. Part of the greatness of Andy Reid is the team’s first fifteen scripted plays and first quarter work. The team has started fast as he’s put them in great position to move the ball and score points. Where the offense has struggled is in the second half of games, where the scheme is a little less present, and it’s on the players to make plays. With what could be perceived as a lack of playmakers, that could explain some of their late game struggles. The game versus the Ravens was a perfect example of this. The Chiefs came out red-hot and looked unstoppable in the first quarter. In the second half all they could manage to do was punt the football. It worked behind their very good defense, but trying to win that way two weeks in a row definitely feels like playing with fire.
The Kansas City offensive line has been pretty solid for them all year long, particularly on the interior. It appears unlikely left guard Joe Thuney will be able to go after a pectoral injury, which greatly weakens this group. Tackles Donavan Smith and Jawaan Taylor started the year struggling to adjust to their new team, however they have been much better in the second half of the season. With Thuney out of the lineup, they become even more critical as they’ll be asked to handle edge rushers Nick Bosa and Chase Young and Randy Gregory. Bosa likes the spotlight and with one of the quickest jump offs in the league, that could be a problem for Taylor, who is the most penalized player in the entire league. Young may be the key on the other side though, as he was brought in for games like this. His work ethic has been questioned, but one would have to think any concerns there go out the window when you’re playing in the Super Bowl, right? The Chiefs normally have the advantage in the interior versus anyone with center Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, but with Thuney Out, and Nick Allegretti in, that may not be the case. Arik Armstead has returned from injury in the middle of the 49ers defensive line, and paired with Javon Hargave, the Chiefs will have to really determine who they want to focus on blocking. Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco really came into his own this season, and he could and should be a name we hear a lot of during this contest. The 49ers defense can absolutely be run on, and Pacheco’s physical, shifty style may give them trouble. It’s critical Pacheco and the ground game get going early so the Chiefs can run their entire offense, and keep San Francisco from straight rushing Patrick Mahomes. Linebackers Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Oren Burks are all great players, but watch for Andy Reid attempting to use their aggressiveness against them with some misdirection both running and passing.
Speaking of passing, here we are again watching Patrick Mahomes doing Patrick Mahomes things, which in this case is playing for another Lombardi Trophy. Mahomes is playing his best football of the season heading into this game, and he’ll face a 49ers secondary that has been flat out bad, especially since the loss of safety Talanoa Hufanga in week eleven to a knee injury. The 49ers play a mix of zone and man coverage, but Mahomes isn’t going to see anything he can’t recognize and hasn’t seen before. Statistically speaking, the 49ers are much better as a zone coverage team, but Mahomes has been a zone killer his entire career. Even with a less than amazing secondary, the 49ers may need to adjust and go to a man coverage scheme and try to force one of the ancillary players of the Chiefs to beat them. Defensive back and former Chief Charvarius Ward will draw a lot of rookie receiver Rashee Rice, and this will be another one of the key one-on-one matchups to keep an eye on. If Rice consistently wins this matchup, the Chiefs offense is likely to roll. If Ward can slow down Rice, it might be a little tougher for KC to move the ball consistently. How the Niners elect to defense Travis Kelce will be the big question defensively. During the season, the 49ers were one of the better teams at defending the tight end position, but when you re-watch the top tight ends they faced, they were usually zoning them up. That can be a recipe for disaster against Kelce and Mahomes. Who draws Kelce if they go man-to-man, or will they attempt to zone cover him and see how that goes, first? No matter what defensive scheme DC Steve Wilks runs, Kelce and Rice have a ton of pressure on them to produce. The Chiefs were fortunate to get some big plays from Marquez Valdes-Scantling in their playoff wins, but neither he nor any other receivers have proven they can be a consistent and reliable threat for most of the year. Much like we mentioned Brock Purdy potentially needing to use his legs in this game, don’t be shocked if Patrick Mahomes has a big day running the football. In big games and big moments, he’s not afraid to take off, and he has great vision in understanding when there are opportunities with his feet. To recap the Chiefs offense, it’s got to be a lot of Isaiah Pacheco mixed in with some Mahomes and Kelce magic.
KEY STATS: – The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Chiefs
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 games for the 49ers
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Chiefs
PUBLIC MONEY:
THE SKINNY:
As always with a Super Bowl, there’s either way more information than you need, or not nearly enough analytics to handicap what’s going to happen in this game. This game is shaping up very similarly to how the AFC Championship game did with the sharp bettors getting behind the Ravens, while much of the public believed in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Something tells us we may have a repeat this week as the sharp money is behind the San Francisco 49ers at the moment. There is so much to consider in betting this game. Can the Chiefs keep up their play which has basically been their best performances of the year in the playoffs, or will the offense that struggled at times during the season regress back to that form? On the 49ers side, what will we get out of Brock Purdy versus a very good passing defense? Or will it even matter if Christian McCaffrey can dominate on the ground? Both coaches and their respective coordinators have extra time to game plan, and both teams should come out pretty polished. The 49ers are a better team this year than they were when these teams met in the Super Bowl just a few years ago, but the Chiefs defense is also clearly better. With all of that, we’re going to take this opportunity to remind you it’s not always necessary to empty the whole cartridge just because this is the biggest game of the year. It’s hard to find a clear edge against the spread so you may want to consider some prop bets, as there will be no shortage of these floating around. (Side note – We’ll have a prop article out as well with some things we’ll be playing). Last year we took the Eagles against the spread, and the Chiefs made us pay for it, breaking a five year winning streak against the spread in the Super Bowl. This year, we’re going to go the opposite direction and stop doubting Mahomes and Andy Reid. This is going to be a close game and hopefully an enjoyable one. We’re with the public on this one, Chiefs come away with a dynasty revealing win.
BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs +2
Kansas City Chiefs 26, San Francisco 49ers 23
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
Despite the fact that the Super Bowl is the most watched and heavily wagered on sporting event on earth, it’s very difficult to either find a valuable edge, or accrue a lot of closing line value. Because the sportsbooks are so heavily invested, they’re completely focused on making sure they have advantages over bettors. While many sports bettors love to go big in the game’s final contest of the season, the BetCrushers will be wagering moderately with most of our plays on Super Bowl Sunday. We’ve done as much studying and prep work as we can, and here’s what we’re settling on for a little bit of pizza money. (Side note – Check back on the website for a detailed player and prop bet article before Super Sunday).
