Preview:
We’re just over a week removed from the Chiefs win over the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII and we’re already peaking ahead at some possible future plays, as we try to figure out who’s most likely to win Super Bowl LIX in 2025.
The current champs enter the offseason with the second best odds to capture something that has never been accomplished in a three-peat, trailing only the team they beat in Super Bowl LVIII, the San Francisco 49ers. There are some newcomers towards the top of the odds list, but overall it’s a lot of the names we’ve been accustomed to seeing here over the past handful of seasons. Is there value in a longshot, or will we see the same familiar faces hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans next February?
Examining Super Bowl LIX Early Odds
Every team will enter the spring and upcoming season with new life and high expectations, although some will certainly be higher than others. Las Vegas has released it’s initial compilation of odds for the next winner of the Lombardi trophy. Odds vary slightly so as always if you have a team you like, you’ll want to shop around with sportsbooks, but let’s take a look at what the DraftKings Sportsbook is opening with below:
It can be pretty exciting to get the conversation going about the upcoming year’s football season, particularly when you may be going through some early withdrawals. You might be tempted to place an early futures wager on your favorite team, or the one you think has the best shot at winning in 2025. Let us be the first to remind you that the NFL offseason is about as unpredictable as the foreign stock market in terms of the amount of roster fluctuation we’ll see before the start of next season. This offseason offers a lot of intrigue at the most important position of quarterback as the decisions of some of the games all time best have big decisions to make, and some other teams may be jockeying for a new veteran starter. The odds above will change dramatically after some of the QB musical chairs completes its rotation and the music stops.
With so much unknown this early does it make sense to place a futures bet and if so where is the best place to start? There are varying opinions on getting a ticket in at this stage, but depending on what you’re looking for you may be able to find some real value. If you’re thinking about making a play here’s what we would recommend:
Start by determining if there is a team you strongly believe has an opportunity to win the big game. Take a look at the potential payout from the odds and you can decide if it’s worth taking a flyer on. Before you punch that ticket though, do your homework on potential free agents and salary caps to determine which teams could lose valuable pieces and who should return most of their lineup. We provided a glimpse of the current salary cap situation for the respective teams, although that generally just provides an idea of who has some wiggle room to make moves they want, and who may be more limited in adding to their roster. Timing can be crucial, if firm news breaks about a key player’s movement, you can sometimes beat the book before the odds change. For the purpose of this article however, we’re simply looking at the factors we know today and determining which teams could provide an opportunity for a futures win. Here’s a look at the odds to win Super Bowl LIX, headed up by the two teams we just watched the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
Breaking Down the Teams and Value
San Francisco 49ers +550
CAP SPACE: $507,000
The 49ers may have finished second in the 2023 NFL season, but they enter 2024 as the favorite, at least immediately following their loss in the big game. It certainly makes sense as this roster is still strong and playing on Brock Purdy’s rookie deal allows them the ability to build at other areas of need. Purdy should only improve, and with a few tweaks potentially to the offensive line and secondary, this team will absolutely be in the mix again in the NFC. The story with San Francisco is really pretty simple. They’re more talented from top to bottom than the other teams in their conference. Despite what the Chiefs are doing however, it’s not easy to go to Super Bowls in consecutive seasons. For that reason, there isn’t a ton of value with a 49ers future at this stage in the game.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Kansas City Chiefs +650
CAP SPACE: $22,640,000
At this point you simply cannot ignore what the Kansas City Chiefs are doing, and we wouldn’t fault anyone for wagering on them to win a third consecutive Super Bowl. After all, if Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are there, along with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who’s to say that can’t just keep the train moving forward? They’re going to have to find a way to keep L’Jarius Sneed on the roster, and decide what to do with Chris Jones, but they’ve got enough wiggle room to make that happen and potentially improve their left tackle situation. To be honest, the only reason we’re not backing the Chiefs at this moment is the simple fact winning three Super Bowls in a row has never been accomplished. That could play into the favor of the Chiefs though as they’ll have something to chase and may help them from becoming complacent. Additionally, as good as KC has been, they’ve also been one of the healthiest and luckiest teams in the league. At some point that luck with injuries and fortunate bounces and games has to run out, doesn’t it? They’re rightly situated at this number in the crowded AFC, so waiting to see how their offseason develops may be the best strategy when looking at them.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Baltimore Ravens +900
CAP SPACE: -$826,000
After looking unstoppable in the regular season the Baltimore Ravens once again fizzled out in the playoffs despite being home favorites in the AFC Championship game. Lamar Jackson gives this team a chance to win each and every week and behind this powerful defense and new talent offensively, they should be in the mix in the AFC once again. With that being said, you have to look at this team and wonder if they have the consistency to attack the NFL playoffs for two to three games and win? We’re not going to pile on Lamar, but there has been a noticeable dropoff in his play from the regular season into the postseason. That whole narrative can change with one good playoff run, but things really have to fall into place in the AFC to get to the Super Bowl and win it. It seemed like this was maybe the Ravens opportunity to take advantage of that, and they fell flat when they had their moment. It’s possible they could rebound and be even better next season, but honestly, it feels like the AFC is going to be the Chiefs and a musical chairs routine of contenders, and the Ravens may be without a seat in 2024.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Buffalo Bills +1000
CAP SPACE: -$51,831,000
Josh Allen and the Bills are starting to feel like Karl Malone, John Stockton and the Utah Jazz in the 1990’s NBA. A great team that is stuck with a legendary team standing in their way. If there is some good news for the Bills, it’s that they have been within seconds and within feet of topping the rival Chiefs, and it’s tougher in the NFL to stay on top than it was in the NBA back in Jordan’s era. Similar to the Lamar Jackson, as long as Allen is healthy and on this roster the Bills will have a chance to win the AFC East and compete in the conference. Buffalo is a team that generally likes to play veteran players, however due to one of the tougher cap situations in the league, they’re almost going to be forced to get younger, which may not be the worst thing in the world. Much of their success could be dependent not only on roster creativity against the cap, but in seeing how well the players that most likely will still be there like Matt Milano, Von Miller and Tre White can return from their injury riddled 2023 campaign. There’s a fair amount of questions for this team heading into next year, and you could make the argument they’ll be better, and equally argue they’ll be worse than they were last season. This number is better than we’ve seen with the Bills in recent years, but there’s a reason for that. No real value here as this seems about right.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Detroit Lions +1200
CAP SPACE: $48,122,000
Living up to big expectations can be difficult, especially for teams and franchises that have been at the bottom of the pecking order for a long time. The Lions not only lived up to their expectations, they exceeded them and were pretty darn close to making it all the way to the Super Bowl after notching their first playoff win in a few decades. Sure, regression is possible with this team, especially if their division improves, but we’re not seeing it as we try to look ahead. The core of this team will remain intact, and in a bit of a shocker, the team got a huge boost when offensive coordinator Ben Johnson announced he was returning for another season in Detroit. If the Lions can have another successful offseason, with the the key players back in the fold and a belief in winning, it’s not remotely crazy to think this team could win the NFC and compete in a Super Bowl. In what may be a sign of the apocalypse, the Lions have fairly high value at 12 to 1 win their first Super Bowl.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Cincinnati Bengals +1300
CAP SPACE: $61,370,000
There is a lot to like about the Cincinnati Bengals heading into next season, primarily the return of what should hopefully be a healthy Joe Burrow at the quarterback position. There was a brief moment in 2023 when Burrow was fully healthy where Cincinnati looked as though they might be heating up to be the team to beat in the conference. After injury, the Bengals were competitive behind Jake Browning, but make no mistake about it, Burrow is one of the five or six difference-making quarterbacks in the league. Some improvements are needed, on the defensive side of the ball for starters, but the offense could use some help at tight end, and could end up with a new running back. It will be interesting to see if the team attempts to pay WR1 money for Tee Higgins, who is their WR2, partially why this Bengals offense can be so potent at times. We need to see how this defense looks before going to crazy, but if Cincy looks good early in the season, grabbing a future, even at a lesser number than here wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Miami Dolphins +1700
CAP SPACE: -$51,421,000
Head coach Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins were a fun story at the beginning of 2023, and they showed offensive flashes that make them capable of beating anyone on any given Sunday. However, defenses seemed to catch up a little bit as the season progressed, and that consistent explosiveness turned into occasional explosiveness. The Dolphins need to play better on the offensive line, and really need a little more variety on that side of the ball. Our concern is more on the defensive side of things, where this unit was ravaged by injuries, and now will start over with another new defensive coordinator after Vic Fangio departed. Needing to pay Tua Tagovailoa, and having a big cap hurdle to clear already, this defense might not be able to improve much. That’s even if they find a way to keep players like Christian Wilkins and Jerome Baker. Bradley Chubb’s unfortunate garbage time injury could cost him most of next year as well, and Jaelan Phillips will also likely be limited for a bit at the beginning of the year. Miami will be competitive, but as we saw last season, against the heavy hitters in the league, they simply can’t stack up.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Philadelphia Eagles +2000
CAP SPACE: $20,850,000
Our initial instinct was to rank the Eagles a low value team as we looked into the crystal ball, but when you recall where this team was over the last 24 months, +2000 seems like a fair number that isn’t all that terrible. This is obviously speculative as we’re not in the locker room, but there clearly appears to be some sort of dysfunction, and head coach Nick Sirianni just feels like he’s in the middle of it all. The whole A.J. Brown ordeal seems as though it could have a negative impact on the team as well, as they need his talent, but not his moodiness. Philly needs to do a couple of things as they go into next year, the first being to bolster up their defense, both with talent and schematically. We’ve likely seen the last of Eagle legends like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, and the team needs to replenish their depth at all three levels on the field, most notably in the secondary. Along with that task, the Eagles need to get Jalen Hurts playing like he did during their Super Bowl run, which means being a dual-threat player. Easier said than done, but if they can do those two things, they could rebound quicker, even if the coaching situation is “iffy” at best.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Green Bay Packers +2000
CAP SPACE: $349,000
The Packers were a bit of a surprise to the rest of the league in 2023 as Jordan Love proved he belongs as a franchise quarterback, and the team’s young talent really started to blossom. They won’t sneak up on anyone this year, but they should still find success as the head coach-QB-offensive line trio they have is a great cornerstone to build their franchise upon. Offensively Green Bay is in a pretty good spot as their roster is still in the growing stage and really should only improve. Down the stretch their defense actually played pretty well for the most part, and if they can function like they did in the latter half of the season, they’ll be pretty good. It feels like this team is right on the cusp of greatness, and how well they can do in the draft could be the difference between a deep playoff run or perhaps sliding back into mediocrity. We’re definitely leaning on this team being one of the contenders, although we can’t put them as Super Bowl worthy high value just yet.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Dallas Cowboys +2000
CAP SPACE: -$14,298,000
The Cowboys tend to be the easiest team to write about in our yearly article of advanced Super Bowl future bets. We always have them listed in the medium value range because it feels like it’s the same old song and dance each season. They have the talent that should make them high value with a number like 20-1, however their inability to win in the playoffs as well as suspect coaching make them fall into the mediocre range. Their roster still boasts some solid talent, although by sheer volume they’ll have a busy offseason on both offense and defense. One thing this team has done well in recent years is drafting quality contributors and some big time talent. Maybe they can snag some key pieces to help push them over the edge? Realistically, they’ll be fighting for a decent playoff seed in the NFC, which may make this wager appealing on some fronts, but the track record simply isn’t there to put a bet in on this team under Mike McCarthy.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Houston Texans +2200
CAP SPACE: $65,410,000
All aboard the Houston Texans hype train after a pretty shocking season that saw them win the AFC South behind rookie phenom C.J. Stroud. We were wrong about Stroud as we’ve seen all we need to see to say he is going to be a star in the league for many years to come. In addition to having a lot of really good young talent already on the roster, the work the Texans have done to get themselves into a nice spot financially will allow them to add even more pieces on offense and defense. Demeco Ryans has this team fighting hard every week and they’re probably just a couple more playmakers away from being a really tough matchup for the rest of the league. The way we’re evaluating this price is by asking, is this Texans team really over double odds behind a team like the Ravens? They’re still probably not ready to win the Super Bowl, but at this price tag there is clearly some value with taking a shot.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
New York Jets +2500
CAP SPACE: $7,560,000
The New York Jets enter the 2024 season with the same opening odds as they had entering the 2023 season. For the second straight, oddsmakers seem a little unsure of where to place them based on the situation around the quarterback position. Aaron Rodgers should be ready to go which could make this team instantly improved, however are we certain that Rodgers can dominate the way he did during his prime at this stage of his career coming off of a major injury? One thing is for sure, the Jets need to fix their offensive line, regardless of who is lining up behind center if they want their offense to improve from what they were in 2023. Defensively, we know they should be good again led by a few very deserving Pro Bowl players. Much like the sportsbooks, it’s really hard to know what to make of this team as they have a low floor but also a high ceiling in terms of their potential. We’ll go ahead and punt on the Jets for the time being and wait to see what they have to offer once the season gets rolling.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Los Angeles Chargers +2500
CAP SPACE: -$44,023,000
The Jim Harbaugh era should bring some renewed excitement following the Brandon Staley experiment, and it should also breathe new life into quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have always been that team you are expecting to take the leap with a roster of talent, yet for various reasons has always fallen short. Whether you like the guy or not, Harbaugh will be the guy to change things up and make this team a contender. The question will be how quickly can he make that happen? It may take a year or so as a bad salary cap situation could result in the release of players like Khalil Mack, while free agents like Austin Ekeler are unlikely to return. Can Keenan Allen keep playing at an elite level on offense and can Mike Williams return from injury to help Herbert achieve his full potential? There are a lot of questions around this team, and while you could argue they’ve got great value at a +2500 clip, we’re going to go with the low to medium range in this first season under the new regime. Watch out for this team in year two, but temper those immediate expectations.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Jacksonville Jaguars +3000
CAP SPACE: $17,247,000
It’s hard to really pinpoint what went wrong with the Jaguars during what started out to be a promising 2023 season. We’ll get to the quarterback position in a moment, but let’s start with figuring out what happened to this proud defense? Perhaps they just were overachieving and maybe even a little lucky when they were stuffing the run and creating turnovers against some quality opponents. When you really look on paper, they only had a few big time players contributing for most of the year. The biggest contributor was pass rusher Josh Allen who is a possible franchise-tag candidate, as the team can’t afford to lose him, and he would command a huge payday from someone. If Travon Walker can continue his development opposite of Allen, and they can get another difference-maker on defense, they can still be a solid unit despite their late season struggles. What we really have to see with this team is how far Trevor Lawrence can actually take them. Lawrence at times looks every bit of the first overall franchise quarterback pick they need him to be, however at other times, appears very pedestrian. The Jags will need to try to retain Calvin Ridley or find an alternate weapon at wideout to give Lawrence the options he needs, but even with an average offensive line, the team needs more out of Lawrence. These odds for a team like the Jags aren’t awful, but they just don’t seem to have that Super Bowl DNA currently.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Chicago Bears +3000
CAP SPACE: $49,132,000
The Chicago Bears are one of the harder teams to price at this stage of the season for the simple fact we don’t what direction the team plans to go in? Will they keep Justin Fields and build around him, or are they certain to try to trade him and draft Caleb Williams or a quarterback in the draft? We can start with what we do know, and that is the team is poised to make some moves in one fashion or another, and they have a defense that really came on at the end of the year with the addition of Montez Sweat. Things definitely look a lot better for Chicago than they did a year ago at this time, but don’t let the hype get you here. Whether it’s Justin Fields or whether it’s Caleb Williams, this organization is not fundamentally sound. That’s not to say that can’t change, but if it does it won’t happen overnight. They could be a sneaky dangerous team, but they aren’t in a position to seriously threaten the rest of the league with a collective season of work.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Los Angeles Rams +3500
CAP SPACE: $35,309,000
It took a complete of seasons but the Los Angeles Rams are finally in a better spot against the salary cap, and now can retool for another postseason run. There is a lot of that retooling that needs to be done, but they’ve got some options finally to help out, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, the solid play from their offensive line was a bonus, and the combination of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay has to be taken seriously. With a trio of Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua playing together, they’ll put up some points each and every week. Defensively, they need some work as they need to add some talent really at all three levels. They’re stuck in a division with the 49ers, but if a few things can go their way, they could be good enough to overtake them. We’re pretty high on this team heading into next year as it seems wild they’d have worse odds than a team like the Bears as an example. Ram it.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Cleveland Browns +3500
CAP SPACE: -$20,621,000
Cleveland fans enjoyed a playoff season in 2023 as Joe Flacco came in to provide some excitement for the Browns before ultimately surrendering in the AFC. This Browns team plays hard, and their defense was really dominant, at least at home. They’ll get Nick Chubb back on offense which should provide a boost, although it’s impossible to know if he can be as effective as he was before his major injury. They need to address the wideout position and get some help for Amari Cooper, who still showed signs of brilliance, but was hampered by nagging injuries as well. The big challenge for the Browns heading into 2024 is we’re now entering the cap hit seasons for quarterback Deshaun Watson, which will somewhat limit how much help they can add to the roster. Speaking of Watson, he had his best game of his Browns career right before being lost for the season with his injury. Can he give them the QB jolt they traded for, or will we see more mediocre play from the embattled quarterback? For us, this Browns team is fairly simple. They seem like a good regression candidate as it’s difficult at this point to see them being better than they were a season ago. Playing in the best division in football doesn’t help their cause either. We’re selling in 2024.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Atlanta Falcons +3500
CAP SPACE: $29,887,000
One of the more intriguing teams to watch heading into the offseason could be the Atlanta Falcons. This team was improved last season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and they’ll move ahead with a new coach next year. It was pretty trendy to dunk on Arthur Smith, but he absolutely deserved every bit of it, and a coaching change alone should help this team better. Part of that will be getting the full benefit out of players like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. The Falcons have one glaring problem as they look to take the step into the playoffs and contending for the Super Bowl, and like many of the teams with longer odds, it’s the quarterback position. It’s pretty apparent neither Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinecke are the long-term answer here, so where do they go now? The draft is a possibility, of course there’s no guarantees there, and a rookie QB would most likely need a little time to develop. (Don’t let C.J. Stroud fool you, most rookies still play like rookies). There has been talk of Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins and others, but nothing concrete to bank on. An impact QB would make this team an instant threat in the NFC, but we won’t know if that’s an option until later. Because of that, there is zero chance we’d bet this team currently, as it would be more beneficial to play them at shorter odds if you knew they had a legitimate quarterback.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Indianapolis Colts +4500
CAP SPACE: $66,350,000
After a somewhat surprisingly solid season in 2023 the Colts head into next year with a quarterback change expected, as Anthony Richardson will most retake the starting job from Gardner Minshew who may find himself with another team in the process. Richardson showed some flashes in his limited playing time, but it’ll be tough to know how effective he will be until we see a little more. And we need to see him stay healthy as his aggressive play style attributed to his shortened season as a rookie. The Colts seem to be headed on the right path with a solid core of coaches but they definitely need to upgrade a few positions on the roster. Their biggest decision will probably whether or not to shell out big money for Michael Pittman, Jr. who will be one of the more sought after free agents in the group. Regardless of whether Pittman returns, they need to invest into more weapons for Richardson so he can develop as a passer. Running back may be a question as well as we’ll see what Jonathan Taylor’s future holds, especially with Zack Moss also being a free agent. The Colts should be a decent team in 2024, but decent isn’t going to win the Super Bowl. For them, a nice next step would be a full season of Richardson, and a possible playoff berth. Even though they’re not a bad squad, these odds don’t make a lot of sense to us.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Minnesota Vikings +5500
CAP SPACE: $28,863,000
THE NFC North seems to be on the upswing with the Lions and Packers looking solid, and the Bears with a lot of ammunition heading into the offseason. Where does that leave the Minnesota Vikings, a team that was riddled by injuries to key players, essentially putting an end to their season before it really got started? A decision needs to be made on quarterback Kirk Cousins who will be the highest paid free agent quarterback for sure. Cousins has expressed his desire to stay in Minnesota and one would have to imagine they’ll get a deal done. Assuming they do, there is still a lot to like on this offense with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and a solid offensive line. The defense improved drastically with the addition of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, however they’re going to need to find some youth and talent in the draft to help on that side of the ball particularly if they cannot retain some high-paid veterans like Marcus Davenport and Danielle Hunter. Should Cousins return, this team is in a similar tier with the Packers and close to the Lions as well. This number seems a bit high, but with the uncertainties in play, it’s probably not too far off entering the season. This is definitely a team to keep an eye on as the season gets going.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Seattle Seahawks +6500
CAP SPACE: -$1,546,000
Pete Carroll is out and Mike Macdonald is in as head coach of the Seahawks, which provides something to watch as this team is at a bit of a crossroads. The Seahawks have quite a bit of talent on the roster on both sides of the ball, however they couldn’t seem to take that step from contender to elite in the NFC. That probably has to do with the fact they are limited at the quarterback position with Geno Smith and or Drew Lock. It’s a bit of purgatory, as Smith is a solid player, who gives the team a chance each week, however how far can an average quarterback take you? With a new coaching staff in place, is it time for the Seahawks to pull the plug on Smith and try to start fresh with a new quarterback? That’s easier when you’re in a full rebuilding mode, not so much when you have some really good players on the roster already who want to win now. Expect more of the same from the Hawk’s in 2024, a competitive team who hovers around the Wild Card range in the NFC.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7000
CAP SPACE: $43,624,000
Both Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved critics wrong last year as they fought hard and diligently throughout the season. The NFC South could very well be the worst division in the league again next year, which means the Bucs should have a chance to win it and get into the playoffs. It sounds like the team saw enough from Baker Mayfield to invest in him with a long-term deal, which probably makes sense, as long as the numbers aren’t too crazy. The challenge the Buccaneers have is by paying Mayfield, how much money is going to be left for players like Antoine Winfield, Jr., and mainstays Mike Evans and Lavonte David? That’s also assuming they let Devin White walk, which seems to be what will happen after falling out of favor in the second half of last season. Player personnel aside, Mayfield really is the key here, as we’ve seen him show greatness, only to fall flat after some time. If he can continue his strong play, this team will be pretty good if they can re-tool at wide receiver and on the defensive side of the ball. They’re probably not a true threat to win the Super Bowl, but +7000 is a disrespectful number for this team.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Pittsburgh Steelers +7500
CAP SPACE: -$4,305,000
It feels like we’ve said this every season since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and yet is always holds true. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a good football team, but they’re just not good enough to win the AFC North. Being stuck in a division with the Ravens, Bengals and now competitive Browns is tough when you don’t have a true franchise quarterback. The latest reports after the season were the organization is split on whether or not to roll with Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph heading into next year, and the team is apparently not interested in bringing anyone else in. If that’s the case, it will be a wasted season for the Steelers, who really were fortunate to win as many games as they did a season ago. Mike Tomlin gets a lot out of his guys, and there are certainly some good players on the team, but without a real quarterback this team can’t go beyond maybe a Wild Card game, as they did this season. Until the Steelers find a legitimate replacement for Big Ben, they will hang around that Tomlin 9-8 mark.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Arizona Cardinals +8000
CAP SPACE: $44,639,000
The Arizona Cardinals were surprisingly competitive in 2023 despite not winning many games, and starting the year without Kyler Murray at quarterback. They will have Murray to start things this year, and they also have some options this offseason, both in the draft and in free agency. The offense could become pretty strong if they can continue to improve on the offensive line, and possibly get Murray another weapon or two at wide receiver. The defensive side of the ball is where they really need to get to work though, as they were routinely shredded behind a unit lacking in talent at all three levels. How quickly defensive coordinator Nick Rallis can improve this group will determine how good they can be overall. Things would have to really fall into place, but it’s not crazy for this team to be a candidate for most improved year over year.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
New Orleans Saints +8000
CAP SPACE: -$82,845,000
The salary cap is a moving target that most general managers can work around season after season. This may not be the case for the New Orleans Saints however a they are in an absolute bind at over $80,000,000 over heading into the offseason. They’ll do some contract extensions and make some moves, but this team is probably going to have to make some tough decisions, which could see some big names and veteran talent having to be let go. On the plus side, the Saints do play in the NFC South, and Derek Carr and the offense seemed to find a bit of rhythm after a slow start in his time with the team. If any team has to nail the draft this year it’s definitely the Saints. They’re going to have to play some younger players right away, and how much contribution they can get from rookies will play a big factor in how many games they can win next year. Initially the thought was to list the Saints at low value, however this number has them essentially with the bottom teams in the league, and they’re better than that, even with their upcoming roster challenges.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Washington Commanders +10000
CAP SPACE: $83,543,000
You can absolutely be excited if you’re a fan of the Washington Commanders as this team has nowhere to go but up. It’s a new era in Washington, but it’s going to take some time. For starters, the team needs to figure out what they want to do at the quarterback position. Is Sam Howell the guy they want to move forward with, or will they use their top pick in the draft on a new QB? With this team essentially starting over, chances are they do go quarterback in the draft, which makes sense. They’ve got quite a few other holes as well, particularly on the offensive line, that needs to improve or it will have whoever is playing quarterback running for their life. The defense also needs some help as the team traded away their edge rushers and had some underachieving players in the back seven. Dan Quinn will get his shot as the new head man taking over for Ron Rivera, but forgive us if we’re not excited about this hire for the Commanders. The team has plenty of money to spend, so the sky is the limit with what direction they want to go, however this team needs way more than just this offseason to have a shot in their own division, let alone the conference. Keep the faith Commander fans, things can’t get much worse than they’ve been.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
New York Giants +10000
CAP SPACE: $26,811,000
It was a lost season in New York as the highlight for the Giants was a fun little stretch where Tommy Devito got them a win in a stereotypical Italian Rocky underdog fashion. Fast forward to present day and the NY Giants feel like a team that has no identity at all. That starts with quarterback Daniel Jones, who missed most of 2023 and will be looked at to help the team rebound in 2024. Saquon Barkley has made it clear he’s not wanting to play on the franchise tag again, so there could be a new running game which would also be a new face of the franchise. After a great first season, head coach Brian Daboll found out how quickly the league can turn into a “what have you done for me lately?” business. The challenge the Giants have, other than playing catch up with the Eagles and Cowboys, is they simply aren’t great in any areas. They’re not terrible in most places, although the offensive line is an issue, but they simply don’t have great receivers, or defense across the board. If they’re healthier they should be improved, but it feels like a best case scenario is they’re around a .500 type football team.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
New England Patriots +10000
CAP SPACE: $69,866,000
What an uneventful way for the Bill Belichick era to conclude in New England with the Patriots not only being irrelevant, but barely competitive for the majority of the season. Jerod Mayo will takeover and he has a lot of work to do to make this team relevant again in the AFC. The defense can certainly be built around, as they did their part to keep the team in games, but the offense needs an entire rebuild, really across the board. That’s going to start at the quarterback position as we’ll confidently say the next face of the franchise is not currently on the roster. NE doesn’t even need to be trying to find the next Tom Brady at this point, they need to at least find the next Drew Bledsoe however. The good news for the Patriots is they have pick number three in the draft, which could provide them with their QB of the future, or a stud like Marvin Harrison, Jr. at a skill position. They’ve also got quite a bit of cap space so the rebuild could happen quicker than a normal rebuild does. Even with some new faces coming in to bolster the offense, this team still has a ways to go under what will be a somewhat unproven coaching staff. Another last place finish in the AFC East is probably in the cards, at least for one more season in New England.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Las Vegas Raiders +10000
CAP SPACE: $43,371,000
Everyone realizes the NFL is a quarterback driven league, and the Las Vegas Raiders don’t necessarily have that locked in as we enter the upcoming season. Jimmy Garoppolo was benched after some turnover struggles and he’s suspended for the first two games of the season. The jury is still out on Aiden O’Connell, who showed some promise, but was certainly not displaying the levels of a “sure thing” during his time as a starter. That’s probably the biggest decision the Raiders need to make before kicking off 2024, and how much production they get from the QB position will be the major factor in their win and loss total. That’s not to say that’s the only area the Raiders need to focus on, as their defense needs to improve, and they may not have Josh Jacobs in their backfield if he ends up leaving in free agency. The thing is, this team has some talent, and most weeks they were pretty competitive, even without a great win total in 2023. Vegas needs to do something they haven’t done much of recently, and that’s hitting with their early draft picks. If they can do that, and possibly bring in some help on the defensive side of the ball, this team could actually be pretty good. We have this team more in the +7000 range, so with their solid positioning for the offseason, we’re going to say there is some good value here if you want to put up a lottery ticket wager.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Denver Broncos +10000
CAP SPACE: -$25,732,000
Another AFC West team that is probably a little low heading into next year is the Denver Broncos, a team that beat some good teams and improved throughout the year under Sean Payton. Much like the Raiders, there are questions at the quarterback position for Denver, which is likely causing these odds to sit at +10000. It looked like the Russell Wilson experiment was going to be over after the messy end of season business side of things, but now there is talk the veteran QB could return for next year. That seems crazy, but in the NFL you never know what will happen year to year. Wilson wasn’t an MVP player last year, yet when you look at his statistics and what he did, he played well enough for this team to win. There are still quite a few holes to fill on the roster on both sides of the ball, as this team needs to get tougher on the offensive and defensive lines. The big difference between the Broncos and Raiders is Las Vegas has more wiggle room to make improvements with their roster. Between this, and the uncertainty at quarterback, these odds make sense for Denver at the moment.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Tennessee Titans +15000
CAP SPACE: $73,905,000
As we’ve gotten to the bottom tier of the teams we’ve used the word rebuild on more than a couple of occasions. Perhaps no team in the league has a true rebuild taking place more than the Tennessee Titans, a team that will look drastically different in the upcoming season. Head coach Mike Vrabel is out, and Brian Callahan is in. Also out (most likely) are Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, who were mainstays of the franchise for the past half a dozen years. The team is riding with second year pro Will Levis as their starting quarterback, and beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess of who will be filling out this roster on offense or defense. Having made some difficult decisions regarding players like A.J. Brown and Kevin Byard the past couple of years, the team is now positioned to essentially start with a clean slate. It’s an exciting spot to be in if you’re a patient Titans fan, as you’re building your team from the ground up, but as far as immediate results and wins, that won’t be happening during the 2024 season. Let’s see how the organization builds this roster moving forward. A good offseason could catapult them quickly, however some misses in the draft and free agency could really keep them down for the longer term. Regardless, this team isn’t winning Super Bowl LIX.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Carolina Panthers +25000
CAP SPACE: $31,025,000
Right now the Carolina Panthers could probably be described as a bit of a dumpster fire as far as NFL organizations go. No matter how quickly they want to fire coaches and change directions, the adjective that comes to mind when we think of this team is “lost”. Bryce Young did not look good as a rookie, however it’s tough to know if that’s a true reflection of the quarterback, or what was surrounding him in terms of personnel and coaching. Either way, it’s tough when your peers ended up like C.J. Stroud did in his rookie campaign. If Young can’t turn things around in year two, it could be a short-lived Carolina career for the top overall pick, although the team is basically stuck with him at this point. Defensively, the team has some talent, although edge rusher Brian Burns will probably be gone in free agency, as will a couple of players in the secondary. The team went young with new head coach Dave Canales, who doesn’t have a lot of experience, despite a successful season as offensive coordinator in Tampa. The odds for Carolina are about as wide as you’ll see for any team entering a season, so feel free to put $1.00 on them. That’s about as much of an investment as we’d be willing to make in this team until we see some serious improvement and stability.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
WHAT WE’LL BE FOLLOWING:
You can spot from the teams we have listed as high value which plays we think are worthy of a ticket, or at least consideration. We always like to give five of our top teams here, even if we may not be betting them just yet. We’re eyeing a few teams, but aren’t necessarily eager to get involved until we see how certain things play out this season.”. If you’re looking for a longshot, consider the Los Angeles Rams, although they’re a true longshot by definition. There is a lot that can happen between now and week one, so enjoy the offseason and start thinking about your wagers sooner rather than later!
Who’s your early pick for next year’s Super Bowl champ? Let us know!
