Preview:

The NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is here with six total games featuring some familiar teams and new entrants into the tournament. Things kick off Saturday afternoon as the three AFC contests go first, followed by the NFC on Sunday and Monday night. While betting factors such as motivation don’t need to be considered much when we get to the playoffs, weather could be the key factor to keep an eye on as severe cold and wind will grip much of the country. There are some really fun matchups, and as bittersweet as the winding down of the NFL season can be, there’s still profit to be made and fun to be had. We’re going to be seemingly joining in with some popular bets, so we’ll see how that works out. Best of luck and enjoy the NFL playoffs!

AFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

vs.

NRG Stadium – Houston Texas
Cleveland Browns -2 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)

Talk about an unexpected playoff dual when the season began, right? The Browns had high hopes, yet it seemed like the injury bug and poor quarterback play was going to destroy what they hoped was a strong season. The Texans weren’t expected to do much of anything, except lose a lot of games in the AFC South. Good QB play comes in many forms, including dusting off a savvy veteran in Cleveland, and learning you have a star rookie in Houston. One of these surprising stories will come to an end on Sunday, and one will continue behind the youngest or oldest QB in the playoffs.

THE CLEVELAND BROWNS ON OFFENSE:

By now you know the Browns have shown they can move the ball on offense as Joe Flacco is slinging it all over the place. When he’s been asked about his success in Cleveland, he’s quick to point out the strength of his offensive line. Even having lost their top three offensive tackles, the interior of the line and the unexpectedly solid play of Geron Christian and James Hudson have provided Flacco with enough time to get the ball down the field. That’s not great news for a Texans defensive line that has all four starters listed as questionable, and lost backup veteran edge rusher Jerry Hughes last weekend. If the Texans are unable to generate pressure on Flacco, he should continue to take shots down the field and connect with Amari Cooper, who will return from his absence, and tight end David Njoku, who has been on fire. Flacco will need to be on his game because the Browns may not be able to run the ball all that well against what has been a pretty stout Texans rush defense. That could actually play into the Browns benefit however as they sometimes try to force things with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, even when it’s just not there. We normally talk about taking care of the ball with inexperienced quarterbacks, but if there’s one knock on Flacco since he’s been back, it’s his interception totals. Even with a secondary with several members on injured reserve, the Texans have players in the secondary who can take the ball away.

THE HOUSTON TEXANS ON OFFENSE:

We’ll be the first to eat some crow as we weren’t expecting C.J. Stroud to be a franchise guy in the NFL, and certainly not as a rookie. Normally, you’d expect a rookie to be in over his head against this Cleveland defense, but that simply won’t be the case. Stroud is extremely unwavering and composed , which will be necessary against the Browns fierce pass rush. Laremy Tunsil will do his best to contain Myles Garrett, and the gameplan for the Texans will include short passes, as we saw last week and when these teams played earlier. Stroud should have at least one of his additional receivers available to help ease the pressure on Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. He’ll need to find other targets as the Browns secondary can absolutely contain Collins and Schultz. The player who could be the proverbial “X” factor for Houston in this game is the tough running Devin Singletary. After wrestling the starting job away from Dameon Pierce, Singletary has really provided a spark to the Houston ground game. If there is a weakness on the Browns defense, they can give up some yardage on the ground as their edge rushers sometimes can over pursue. A key for the Houston offense is not getting down early in the game so they can remain balanced. Can they weather the first quarter and prove they belong in this spot?

KEY STATS:
– The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone over in 9 of the last 9 road games for the Browns
– The Texans are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Texans are 6-2 ATS as underdogs during the 2023 season

THE SKINNY:
The Browns and Texans both enter the playoffs with a lot of optimism and excitement. With homefield advantage, the Texans won’t be afraid of this Cleveland team despite losing by a pair of touchdowns just a few weeks ago. C.J. Stroud has been great under durress, something that couldn’t be said for Case Keenum when he was forced into action. That will definitely make a big difference in the outcome of this game, as will the fact the Browns defense is just not as dominant on the road. It wouldn’t be a shock to anyone if the Texans came away with a victory as they just continue to defy odds behind head coach Demeco Ryans and their young core of players. The Browns are rested though, and Joe Flacco is the most experienced and accomplished playoff quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes in the tournament. There will likely be some close games in the Wild Card round, and this should be one of them. C.J. Stroud isn’t your typical rookie quarterback, but it’s important to point out the struggles of first time and rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs. We’ll give a slight edge to the better defense and the veteran quarterback in what should be a fun game.

BetCrushers Lean: Cleveland Browns -2
Browns 28, Texans 20

AFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)

The Dolphins will head to Kansas City where they will be battling the Kansas City Chiefs, the elements, and a roster missing some of it’s most important pieces. The Chiefs have as long of odds as they’ve had to win the Super Bowl in the past four seasons, but they may be entering the postseason at a good time and largely healthy. Can the Dolphins offense regain some of their early season potency to take down Kansas City in the cold, or is this another notch in the Patrick Mahomes playoff belt?

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ON OFFENSE:

Let’s start with some good news on the injury front for the Miami Dolphins, which had both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle practicing this week with both expected to return. With a mostly healthy offense and these two important pieces back, the Dolphins can open up their playbook and potential dictate how the Chiefs play defense against them. Steve Spagnuolo wants to pressure and create big plays for his defense, however with Waddle and Tyreek Hill in the lineup, he may have to play it a little safer and not blitz as much. That of course could also be determined by whether or not the weather conditions limit the ability for Tua Tagovailoa to throw the football. One would guess the Dolphins will have some quick screens and short passes available for both scenarios. Where the Dolphins really need to win is in the running game, something they are capable of doing. When Mostert and Devon Achane have both been available, they’ve put up some pretty impressive numbers. Achane is putting up near historic per carry numbers like we’ve never really seen. The Dolphins need to be aggressive offensively and not settle for punting or even field goal attempts if they want to get the road victory.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

The challenges of the Kansas City Chiefs offense have been well documented throughout the regular season. While it’s unlikely they’re going to explode offensively in the playoffs, it’s certainly possible they can improve. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce got an extra week of rest and should be ready to go. We’ll see if the fresh legs can help Kelce regain some of his old form and give Mahomes the reliable target he needs in the passing game. The Chiefs offense could find success on Saturday for the simple fact the Dolphins defense is basically out of bodies, especially at the linebacker position. The Dolphins lost their three top edge rushers in Jaelen Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel, and will also be without defensive signal-caller Jerome Baker. Their secondary is also banged up as they’ll be without Xavien Howard again, and both starting safeties are battling through injuries. The good news for Miami is if they need to face a team that isn’t exactly scary in the wide receiver room, it would be this Kansas City Chiefs team. In what was a weekly question during the season, we have to wonder who can step up and provide a target besides Travis Kelce on the outside? That has mostly been rookie Rashee Rice, who is going to draw Jalen Ramsey for a good chunk of this game and may find getting open difficult. It goes against head coach Andy Reid’s general philosophies, but if he can stay disciplined, his best approach may be to try to run the ball with Isaiah Pacheco. If the weather is truly poor, he may have no choice. The Dolphins could have alignment issues as they will be playing guys like Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin who are literally brand new to the team and the playbook.

KEY STATS:
– The Dolphins are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games vs. the Chiefs
– The Dolphins defeated one team with a winning record in 2023
– The total has gone under in the last 5 Chiefs home games

Just a few weeks ago it would have been enticing to take the Miami Dolphins against a bit of a floundering Chiefs football team. That’s despite the fact the Dolphins have only defeated one team with a winning record in nearly two seasons of football. Saturday night feels different though as there is something about the Chiefs entering the playoffs with their key components healthy and comfortable in these situations. More than that, we all know the Dolphins have to be effective offensively to win this game. With the weather predicted to be painfully cold and windy, their passing game really seems like it will be neutralized. The Dolphins may be able to run the ball, but that’s a big “may”, and will not be easy if they’re one dimensional. Add in the the depleted defense that without their edge rushers to take advantage of the tackles of the Chiefs, and it just seems like a little too much for Miami to overcome. It’s not always the best team that wins in the playoffs, sometimes it’s the healthiest and most fortunate. In this case, that’s the Kansas City Chiefs.

BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
Chiefs 20, Dolphins 14

AFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

vs.

Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 35.5 (-110)

Weather is looking blizzardy in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon when the Steelers and Bills face off at Highmark Stadium. The Steelers enter the game as heavy underdogs behind backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, while the Bills are riding a five game winning streak they needed just to get into the playoffs. Ultimately Buffalo ended up with the second seed, which gives them a game against the last team into the dance in the conference. Will the wintery conditions help the Steelers slow down the Bills on offense and give them a chance to grind out a victory?

THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS ON OFFENSE:

Handicapping the offenses in this game could be a moot point if the weather is as bad as they’re predicting. Chances are we’re going to see a whole lot of the Steelers leaning on their offensive line and trying to run the ball with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The Bills defense has not been particularly great stopping the run, but that’s mainly because they focus primarily on stopping the pass and playing a shell defense. With the Steelers running regularly, they’ll need to change their defensive philosophy a bit and perhaps even get out of their base nickel package. If the weather is decent enough to throw the football, pressuring Mason Rudolph will be key for the Bills defense. With Daquan Jones back on their defensive line, the Bills are able to rush from both the interior and the edges. Rudolph has taken care of the football in his limited starts, but that could be tough against this defense and a raucous crowd. The Bills will be possibly without Rasul Douglas on the corner, which does thin them out a little bit in the secondary. The Steelers wideouts have made a living this season making big plays in the passing game. If that’s taken away, can they drive the ball the length of the field?

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

The Bills offense seems to have one opponent that can really slow them down, and that’s themselves. Turnovers continue to plague the team, and a slippery football could disrupt them again against the opportunistic Steelers defense. A defense that looks to get both starting safeties back in Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damonte Kazee. Like the Steelers, the Bills might need to run the ball, which means a hefty dose of James Cook, who has really shined since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. We could also see more of Leonard Fournette, who seems to have leapfrogged Latavius Murray, and of course boasts a nickname that is fitting for the time of year we’re in. Josh Allen has also run much more under Brady, and it’s likely there’ll be some QB draws and powers in the playbook. The Bills will be minus Gabe Davis in this game who injured his knee against the Dolphins. This is pretty substantial for a couple of reasons. First, Davis absolutely smoked the Steelers last year so there’s a history there, but he’s also been a really good blocking receiver for the Bills of late. If this is a heavy running game, not having Davis could be a big detriment for Buffalo. With Davis out of the lineup, the Bills will utilize more 12 personnel groupings with both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the field together. We haven’t yet discussed the elephant in the room on this side of the ball yet though, and that’s the absence of All-Pro pass rusher T.J. Watt who will miss the game with a knee injury. Even though the Steelers have some capable pass rushers in Alex Highsmith and Markus Golden, their defense is simply not the same without Watt on the edge. The Bills offensive line should be able to block effectively, which basically means Josh Allen simply needs to make good decisions so they don’t beat themselves.

KEY STATS:
– The Steelers are 11-4 straight up and ATS in their last 15 games vs. the Bills
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Steelers
– The Bills have won 5 straight games straight up
– The Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite

The Bills are a better football team than the Steelers and have the better quarterback, despite the solid play of Mason Rudolph to wrap up the season. Without T.J. Watt in the lineup the Steelers have flat out not been able to win football games. This seemed like a slam dunk victory for the Bills a week ago, but there is legitimately going to be an equalizer with the weather in Buffalo as they could be getting half a foot of snow with sustained winds of 25-30 miles an hour. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Bills will lose the game, as they can run the ball with James Cook, and Josh Allen has the arm to at least cut through a little wind and can use his legs as well. However, this definitely makes this a lot more of a toss up as fumbles and turnovers could become an issue in either direction. We’ll swap the original direction of the Bills with the Steelers based on what’s looking like a true snow game.

BetCrushers Lean: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5
Buffalo Bills 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 13

NFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

vs.

AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)

While the AFC games may be more defensive driven based on rosters and weather, the NFC should provide some offensive firepower, beginning with the Packers and Cowboys. Jordan Love brings in one of the hottest offenses to AT&T Stadium where they’ll do battle against a Cowboys team that has lit up the scoreboard at home all season. The Packers are probably ahead of schedule from where most believed they would be in Jordan Love’s first season, while the Cowboys want to get over the playoff hump behind Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott.

THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:

After a shaky first month of the season Packers quarterback Jordan Love has played about as well as anyone at the position the rest of the way. He’ll take what’s been a red hot offense into Dallas, a place where offenses have felt the wrath of the Cowboys defense. This Packers offense is surging down the stretch though, and they’ve been doing it without wideout Christian Watson, who is once again questionable to play. The emergence of Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks has given Love enough weapons to throw to as has rookie tight end reserve Tucker Kraft. They’ll face a secondary that may be without Stephon Gilmore, but is still formidable overall. The Packers best path to victory may be what they’ve leaned on over the previous few years to beat the Cowboys, and that’s leaning on their running game with Aaron Jones. The Packers offensive line continues to play well, and Jones has shredded the Cowboys before with his speed and power. He’ll have to carry the load as A.J. Dillon will not be playing, but leaning on Jones could actually help Green Bay. If the Packers can win the time of possession battle, they’ll have a very good chance at pulling off the upset. As well as Jordan Love has been playing, they don’t want to get into a shootout in Dallas with this team. The best way to slow down Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence is to run Aaron Jones left, right and middle. The Cowboys did get some good news as defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins has practiced in a limited fashion and may return to the lineup. He’s probably their most important defender against the run, so his availability and presence would be big.

THE DALLAS COWBOYS ON OFFENSE:

The Cowboys offense has slowed down just a tad from the torrid pace they were on earlier in the year, but in the comfort of their dome, they should be ready to go on Sunday. Conversely, the Packers have played some of their best defense over the past few weeks of the season as they somehow have tightened up against the run, and defended the pass better. They’ll have their toughest test since playing the Lions in terms of going against a big and physical offensive line. On paper, the Cowboys should win the battle in the trenches. Whether they do or not, it’s hard to imagine the Cowboys getting too much out of Tony Pollard at this stage of the season, even against a run defense that is average at best. Pollard the Cowboys simply cannot move the pile and get to the next level, which is really perplexing when you try to examine why. Fortunately, they’ve now turned to the passing game to carry them, and Dak Prescott has not disappointed. Since CeeDee Lamb respectfully told Mike McCarthy he wants the ball more, he’s been an absolute monster. The Packers recent pass defense successes will need to continue to stay close in this game. CeeDee Lamb won’t be completely stopped, but if they can at least keep him to marginal gains and not allow big plays that will be huge. The two players that are always options number two and three are Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks, both of whom should have nice production with the attention on Lamb. Cooks has come on in the second half of the season, and his speed on the indoor track is still a dangerous weapon. The Packers will need to provide a pass rush of their own to try to disrupt Prescott and his timing with these receivers. Green Bay hasn’t been a consistently high blitzing team, but they may need to look at applying additional pressure if they can’t get home against the Cowboys solid pass protection.

KEY STATS:
– The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Cowboys
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Packers
– The total has gone over in the last games between the Cowboys and Packers
– The Cowboys are 16-0 straight up in their last 16 regular season home games

No team may benefit as much from homefield advantage as the Dallas Cowboys, as they have just simply played great in the comfort of JerryWorld. The Packers have been on a roll the last few weeks and honestly are playing about as well as any team in the league. If this game were in Lambeau Field, there is a good chance the Packers would be ending the Cowboys season. Dallas earned homefield though, and that should make the difference in them advancing into the divisional round. Seven points is a lot though, especially against a team that has really owned them in recent years. Yes, that was with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but again, Jordan Love is playing really good football. If they can get Aaron Jones and the running game going, they can keep this game close. Cowboys win, Packers keep it close.

BetCrushers Lean: Green Bay Packers +7
Cowboys 29, Packers 26

NFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

vs.

Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -3 (-110)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)

Perhaps the biggest storyline of Wild Card Weekend is Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit as he and Jared Goff face their old teams for the right to get to the divisional round. The Lions have been a great story all season and are one of the more fun teams to watch around the league. Sean McVay has done a masterful job of orchestrating offense in LA as the addition of rookie Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams have revitalized things for the Rams. Only one of these fun stories can advance however, and it could be the team that plays the better defense.

THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:

The Rams enter their contest well-rested after giving veterans the day off in their mostly meaningless week 18 contest. The Lions played things out, so we’ll get a look at the rest versus rust argument first hand in this matchup. LA may have needed some rest as their offensive line was dinged up, and will need to be ready to go against the Lions front seven. A big part of the Rams recent success has been the effective running of Kyren Williams, who put up numbers better than anyone at the position over the second half of the season. It’ll be strength versus strength as he’ll be running into a Lions front that has been pretty tough at stopping opposing runners. The Rams don’t necessarily need Williams to dominate in the game, they just need him to do enough to keep the Lions defense honest and not coming after Matthew Stafford. The pass rush for the Lions hasn’t been great, but they are capable of getting after quarterbacks, especially one like Stafford who isn’t the most mobile in the pocket. What Stafford can do though is pick apart zone or man coverage when he does have time to throw. Bad news for the Lions, their secondary has been torn apart with regularity throughout the season. They have gotten a little healthier at that level entering the playoffs, so perhaps that can help a bit. With Puka Nacua stepping in as a legitimate star opposite Cooper Kupp, how does that secondary slow down Stafford and company? They’ll need to either get sacks to put them behind the sticks, or generate turnovers. You can never guestimate the psychological piece of the game, but how will Stafford fair playing back in Detroit? One other thing to consider. Rams head coach Sean McVay had some extra time to develop some game planning, and even without fully knowing his opponent, he could come out with some unexpected wrinkles that might give his team a boost.

THE DETROIT LIONS ON OFFENSE:

Offensively, it’s a lot of fun to watch this Detroit Lions offense. They can run it with power or speed, and throw the ball all over the field, making them tough to defend. The Rams defense hasn’t been terrible this season with a lot of new pieces, however they’re also not great by any stretch, minus All-Pro Aaron Donald. Who by the way is still pretty effective even if he’s maybe a tick slower and probably didn’t deserve that All-Pro selection this season. Overall though, this is advantage Lions in the trenches as their offensive line should be able to block the Rams, if they can keep Donald from wrecking the game. Detroit wants to run the football all day everyday, and that will happen if the Rams don’t play some bigger boxes and bring safety help to the line of scrimmage. The problem that creates is opening the door for big plays from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs if he can get to the second level. Other than Devon Achane, and maybe Christian McCaffrey, Gibbs has been the most explosive running back in the league breaking off 20+ yard carries in practically every game he’s played in. It also opens things up for the deep passing game, something Jared Goff has execute really well with Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams and Khalif Raymond. The real weapon for this team though on offense is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who can run pretty much every route on the tree and was arguably the most consistent receiver of the entire season. When you look at the Rams defense, coordinator Raheem Morris is going to have his hands full figuring out how how to stop this Lions attack.

KEY STATS:
– The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 games for the Rams
– The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 games for the Lions

There are potentially some really fun games on Super Wild Card Weekend, none as intriguing as the Rams and Lions. These offenses should put up some points and you know both quarterbacks are eager to put on a show. Throw in the aggressive play calling and coaching decisions and this has the chance of being a memorable game if things hold to form. It seems like everybody is backing the Rams with the points, which is certainly understandable with how well they’ve been performing. The injury to Sam LaPorta cannot be discounted either, as that definitely impacts the passing game for the Lions. If we had to bet the game, we’d probably go the direction everyone else seems to be going with the Packers, but fortunately we don’t have to bet the game. This Lion team seems to have something special going, as it looks to break what is essentially a generational curse. This may be the game of the weekend to just enjoy without a sweat, if you can do that during a standalone game. The total is really up there, but if any game of the weekend is going to go into the high 50’s or into the 60’s, it definitely seems like it would be this one.

BetCrushers Lean: Los Angeles Rams +3
Rams 31, Lions 28

NFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs.

Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)

Things move quickly in the NFL and for the Philadelphia Eagles, that happens to be going from the best record in the league to barely making it into the playoffs. The Eagles take to the road and face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team many felt would be one of the worst in the league heading into the season. Baker Mayfield revived his career and the Bucs, and he’ll take aim at a leaky Eagles defense on Monday Night Football. Will the Eagles regain the form that had them in the Super Bowl a year ago, or will a disappointing second half of the season conclude on Monday?

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:

The once potent offense of the Philadelphia Eagles has been stuck in neutral for the last month of the season, and realistically even longer. They miss Shane Steichen and honestly that’s the biggest analysis of this side of the ball for them right now. Their offense has become very predictable, and is exposing weaknesses of quarterback Jalen Hurts, rather than playing to his strengths. It’s tough to guess what may change heading into the playoffs, but something really needs to or it’ll be season over for Philly. We’re expecting Jalen Hurts to be much more active as a runner with the season now officially on the line, and that should help the Eagles offense. Even with his somewhat limited mobility with his lingering knee injury, the threat of him running should help ease things for him in the passing game. Running the ball as a whole may be tough for the Eagles as the Buccaneers have their usual solid run defense anchored by Vita Vea in the middle and a now rejuvenated Devin White at linebacker. Philadelphia would be better served to throw on first down and run later, however that has not been their plan this season and probably won’t be here either. That could put them in some third and long situations if they can’t establish a good presence on the ground with D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell. When they throw, there is some good news heading into the game, and some bad news. The good news is the Bucs secondary outside of Antoine Winfield, Jr. basically stinks. They give up a lot of big passing plays and aren’t great on third downs. The bad news would be the Eagles enter the game with both of their big time receivers banged up as A.J. Brown missed practice and Devonta Smith is also battling injury. To make things worse, A.J. Brown is stirring things up on social media, which is not ideal before entering the playoffs. Can Hurts and the offense put the noise and injuries aside and recapture some of the deep throws and chunk plays we saw all last year and early this season? With his running ability and their weapons, including Dallas Goedert, they should be able to exploit this Bucs secondary. The key word in this sentence being “should”. Nothing they’ve shown over the past month of the season would lead anyone to believe they’re offense is going to come out firing.

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

The Tampa offense didn’t look pretty in their win over the Panthers, but it’s important to point out quarterback Baker Mayfield was playing hurt in the game. We point this out because it looks like he’s going to be taking the field still banged up when they face the Eagles. Mayfield has played through injury throughout his career without complaining, but he understandably hasn’t been as good when battling through injuries. Whether or not he’s in game shape could be very telling on the final outcome of this game. Assuming he’s healthy enough to not be overly limited, he’s in a good position taking on an Eagles defense that has been one of the worst in the league over the second half of the season. It’s not surprising a unit with older players and injuries might struggle a bit, but this has been downright abysmal for Philly. The team will get a boost as Darius Slay returns at cornerback, who should give them a boost there, even though he wasn’t exactly playing great when he was in the lineup. They also get Zach Cunningham back at linebacker and that should at a minimum help what had become a surprisingly leaky run defense. The Buccaneers offense found some rhythm earlier in the year when they were able to get running back Rachaad White involved and consistently keeping them ahead of the chains. White may not be a huge factor running, but he can help with consistent three and four yard carries, and as a receiver out of the backfield. Essentially, White needs to draw enough attention to keep Mike Evans and Chris Godwin clean to run their routes without a lot of heavy zone presence and double teams. If they can do that, Evans and Godwin should both have strong performances working the middle of the field, where the Eagles have been terrible. If Hasson Reddick and the Eagles pass rush can’t get home, expect some deep shots to Evans as well, who continues to make big plays in the later years of his career. Philadelphia made a trade at the deadline for Kevin Byard, and it was exactly for games like this one. Can the veteran help contain Evans and Godwin and perhaps even make some splash plays to help his team?

KEY STATS:
– The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone under in 8 of the last 9 road games for the Eagles
– The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 home games for the Buccaneers

Imagine for a second what this line would have been before the season started. Now here we are with everyone seemingly giving up on the Eagles and backing Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. It’s hard to fault this as the Eagles look absolutely lost on offense, and with a defense that can’t seem to stop anybody. Yes, the Eagles are a mess right now, including talk of firing head coach Nick Sirianni just one year removed from playing in the Super Bowl. Philadelphia may not win this game, but they’re not going to go down without a fight. Expect to see more of Jalen Hurts running, and the Eagles pulling out every stop to keep their season alive. Tampa should be able to move the ball as well though as the Eagles defense just doesn’t seem like it can slow down opposing passing games. That adds up to what we’re thinking is more points than projected and possibly a road victory for Philly. Hard to see this one not being a close contest as well.

BetCrushers Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -3
Eagles 28, Buccaneers 24

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

You’ve had a chance to check out our leans and predictions for all six of the Super Wild Card weekend matchups. Below are our official wagers.