Previous Week Plays – 1-4
Season Record – 37-36-1
Week 14 Recap:
Is there really any point in complaining about how we could have and probably should have swept the slate last week, but somehow ended up 1-4? Not there isn’t although we may do it a bit anyhow. The bottom line is, in a week where we wanted to really show some unit gains on the season, we instead went backwards and are not barely over .500, and down on cash with our posted plays. Ironically, we were one game over .500 a year ago heading into week 15, so at least we’re consistent? There’s still some time left and we managed to squeak out some profit last season, so let’s hope at the minimum we can follow the same pattern. Let’s do a quick recap. The Lions and Bears missed two extra points and a short field goal. We missed the over by two points. You do the math. Somehow despite being at 41 points with nearly 10:00 minutes left in the game, the teams couldn’t get over the total. The 49ers game was frustrating as well, as we lost by the hook with their team total at 28.5, as they finished the game with just 28 points. Brandon Aiyuk caught a deep ball to start the 4th quarter, but fumbled it at the 14 yard line, which ultimately sealed the fate in that contest. The craziest piece was losing the total and cover with the Miami Dolphins. In fairness, they probably shouldn’t have gotten there, as they were completely slowed when Tyreek Hill left after being tackled awkwardly in the first quarter. That being said, Miami was gifted a 14 point lead with less than 3:00 minutes left in the game, before not only allowing a backdoor cover, but choking away the victory as well. The lone fun news from last week was we got back on track with a teaser winner, as the Ravens needed OT, but handled business against the Rams, and the Bills covered the +7.5 with a straight up winner.
Week 15 Picks:
After last week, maybe it’s just a little uncertainty, but the slate for this weekend seems very suspect. Can you really punch the ticket with teams like the Giants and Jets on the road? It’s oh so tempting, but we just don’t have the stones to make those wagers, as well as some others. Titans, Packers, and Lions, anyone? Instead, we’re just going to dip our toe in the water with a two bet card this weekend. A total in the Ravens and Jaguars game, and a teaser bet with a bit of a shock on who the weaker leg may be.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Sunday December 17th
8:20pm
Everbank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
A fun primetime matchup with a lot on the line in the AFC when the Ravens head to Duval County to take on the suddenly vulnerable Jacksonville Jaguars. Both are currently in first place in their respective divisions, and each would like to extend their lead in an effort to wrap things up. Baltimore has been consistently rising in power rankings, while the Jaguars are on a bit of a slide after a pair of tough losses. Is this an even matchup, or are these teams on different power tiers?
At this point in the season the Ravens seem to have found a pretty nice balance with their offense. Their ability to both run and throw the football is going to cause some problems for a Jaguars defense that has really been shredded over the last few weeks of the season. The Ravens enter December with a healthy offensive line that is big and physical, to counterattack the Jaguars defensive front. When the Jags were playing better defense earlier in the year, it was largely due to the tough play of their front four. That’s fallen off a bit, and if it weren’t for edge rusher Josh Allen having an All-Pro type of season during his contract year, this would be one of the worst defenses in the league since mid-November. Allen will get a shot at the Ravens tackles, Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses, who are both playing well overall. Allen and company will have their hands full with Lamar Jackson, who like most quarterbacks, tends to run more in primetime. Even if he’s under pressure, Jackson should have his usual escapability, and that will open things up against a secondary that has been beaten routinely of late. Not only that, but Jacksonville will be without starting safety Andre Cisco, who was really the general of the secondary as far as moving players around. Zay Flowers should have some opportunities with both short and long routes, and Baltimore is finally getting a boost from what appears to be a now healthy Odell Beckham, Jr. This is just in time as they needed to find some replacements for injured Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews. In addition to OBJ, the world may get a glimpse into backup Isaiah Likely, who the team is confident in to help fill the void. We know Baltimore will pound the rock with the trio of Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill, but it’s the running of Jackson, and the passing game that will move the ball for the Ravens.
The Jaguars enter this important contest pretty banged up on the offensive side of the ball. Not exactly the ideal scenario when facing one of the top defenses in the league. It sounds like they’re going to have their big men upfront available, however how healthy and effective they’ll be is not really known at this point. Same goes for starting running back Travis Etienne, Jr. Jacksonville needs to run the ball in this game, plain and simple. Baltimore is no slouch at stopping the run, but they’re extremely hard to throw on. If the Jags can’t move the ball on the ground and at the very least set up some manageable third down situations, it will be a long evening for their offense. If it isn’t tough enough facing the Ravens pass defense, Jacksonville has to do so without wideout Christian Kirk, who had really regained his spot as quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. With Kirk now on injured reserve, pressure mounts for Zay Jones to step up production, and maybe some increased usage for Calvin Ridley. The player to keep an eye on is Parker Washington, who is technically the replacement for Kirk. In a very limited sample, he’s made some plays, and the Jaguars will need him to do so Sunday night. Same goes for tight end Evan Engram, who is perhaps the one player that can win against zone coverage with his combination of size and speed.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. an AFC South opponent
– The Jaguars are 2-7 straight up in their last 9 games vs. an AFC North opponent
The spread feels about right in this game as the Ravens should be field goal favorites. It’s tempting to want to grab the Jaguars, especially if you have the hook with the 3.5, but with the bit of a freefall that Jacksonville is currently in, this may not be the time to do so. The Ravens could win this convincingly anyhow, if they’re on their game and take care of the football. We’re going with the team total option as it sits at 23.5 for the Ravens. Weather shouldn’t be a big factor as the rain should be through before kickoff, and this Ravens offense has proven to be pretty potent. Put that together with a Jags defense that suddenly can’t stop anyone throwing the football, and has been weaker against the run, and there’s our reasoning. Surely the Ravens will get 24 points or more, won’t they?
BetCrushers Take: Ravens Team Total – Over 23.5
Ravens 26, Jaguars 22
Teaser Bet
Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Washington Commanders (4-9) vs. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
Sunday December 17th
4:05pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-10)
Sunday December 17th
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-115)
Over/Under 37.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Chiefs -1.5 and Rams -.5
There are storylines galore in our teaser bet games this weekend between the Chiefs and Patriots, and the Rams and Commanders. The Chiefs are looking to get back to their winning ways, and rebound after a frustrating finish in a loss to the Bills. The buzz around Patriots camp is legendary coach Bill Belichick will be on his way out after the season, adding some intrigue in this contest. In the NFC, the Rams are looking to get back to .500 and keep their playoff hopes intact, against a Commanders team that may also be moving on from head coach Ron Rivera after the season.
The Chiefs are clearly in a bit of a funk, and that frustration was evident from Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid after their post-game tirades a week ago. For an offensive that’s so used to having things just sort of click, watching their struggles can be tough. Despite having the second worst record in the league, the Patriots defense is not ideally what you want to see if your KC going into this game. The Chiefs may be without running back Isaiah Pacheco again, and even if he plays, New England has become almost impossible to run on. If there’s one quarterback in the league who can overcome having to be one dimensional, it’s certainly Patrick Mahomes, but he’s going to need some help. We know enough about Bill Belichick to know he’s going to do everything he can to take Travis Kelce away in this game, so someone else has to step up. Rashee Rice seems to be the most likely candidate, but in what looks to be a cold weather game, we’ll see how the rookie can do here. Keep an eye on the edge rush for the Patriots as well, as the tackles for the Chiefs continue to be a bit of a problem. Even when healthy Donovan Smith has had his challenges protecting Mahomes blind side.
On the other side of the ball the Patriots got a jolt a week ago from Bailey Zappe as he was making some really nice throws when given time, and actually made their offense look respectable. That’s going to be tougher against the Chiefs defense which will look to confuse the young quarterback and make him rush his throws. With Rhamondre Stevenson either playing hobbled, or missing the contest altogether, the Chiefs should be able to contain Ezekiel Elliott on the ground. As well as Zappe navigated the offense last weekend, he could be forced into some mistakes like Mac Jones was during his tenure. Much like with the Chiefs offense, it’s hard to see where the Patriots playmaking will come from? One thing is for certain, the Patriots cannot lose the turnover battle if they want to pull off the home upset.
The Rams and Commanders are playing for different things on Sunday, but each would really need a win to keep their different goals alive. Los Angeles is fighting for a playoff berth, while Washington head coach Ron Rivera is fighting to keep his job next season. With one of the higher projected totals this weekend, defense may be optional, or could prove to be the difference between who wins and who loses. We have to give the advantage to the Rams, who not only have homefield advantage, but just seem more interested in tackling and playing at this point in the season. Washington quarterback Sam Howell continues to show flashes of brilliance, yet also can be slow to diagnose specific defensive schemes. Look for the Rams defense to dial up a lot of pressure in an effort to get after the most sacked QB in the league and continue to drive those numbers up. The Commanders do have a nice edge against the Rams in terms of their receivers in particular. The Rams are thin at the corner position, and Howell has proven he can find the weak matchup and get the ball to Curtis Samuel or Jahan Dotson when teams take away Terry McLaurin. LA will most likely try to make Washington earn their points with sustained drives, and not allowing anything behind them. For a team that is sacked so frequently, it only takes a play each drive to really put them in a bad spot. When the Rams are on offense, the only thing they really need to do is take care of the football and not hurt themselves. Their offensive line has been playing much better than many expected before the season, and Kyren Williams is nearing the upper echelon of running backs in the league with his consistently strong performances. It’s no secret the Rams should be able to throw the ball to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua against a Washington defense that has been poor for most of the season, and regressed even more without their top edge rushers. When Stafford has time to throw, he’s pretty surgical as we’ve seen, and he should have time against the Commanders.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Patriots
– The Chiefs are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 road games
– The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games
– The Commanders are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games
– The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in December
This teaser bet obviously has the right numbers in play with the favorites so there are no issues there. If you’re looking for a snoozer bet though, this one may not be for you, as there is a good chance both underdogs could cover against the spread. It’s crazy to think the Patriots could give the Chiefs a game, but if that defense can clamp down on Mahomes and Kelce this could be a bit of a slugfest. Ultimately, the thought process here is the Chiefs simply can’t lose to the Patriots, can they? It could be the Kansas City defense that gets them to the finish line here, but hey, we’ve seen the Patriots lose in that 10-6 range a few times this year. The same could be said in the other game, although it certainly is a lot more likely to be 30-27. If it’s close early, it’ll probably stay that way, but the Rams should be able to score enough to find a way to secure the win against this porous Commander defense. If they can get after Howell, it may not be as big of a sweat, but chances are this will be a close one too.
