Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record –11-6
Week 4 Recap:
A quiet yet mildly successful weekend as we ended up winning 2 bets and losing 1 to improve our season record to 11-6 through the first four weeks. We got things started early in the morning with the London game and found a winner as the Jaguars took care of business against the unimpressive Desmond Ridder and the Falcons. We rolled to a pretty easy cover on the over in the Bears and Broncos game as well, as those two teams continued to struggle with their defenses. Our lone loss was our teaser bet that only completed one leg. The Chiefs did enough to fend off the Jets, however the Dolphins were unable to stay within striking distance of the Bills, even with the extra six points. Nothing to write home about, but a fun week in the NFL overall.
Week 5 Picks:
After combing through the schedule we ended up having to unfortunately not share some of our favorite bets with you that we locked in early, as the lines have shifted too much. Despite this, we still found three games that we have interest in publicly betting, with a total of 4 wagers between them. Totals and first half spreads are on the docket, and no teaser bet this week, as there just weren’t great numbers or matchups we liked in that area. We have plays on the two games with the largest spread differentials of the weekend, and a play in what we expect to be a close game in Minnesota. Cheers to what we hope is another productive and profitable Sunday in the National Football League.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (0-4) vs. Detroit Lions (3-1)
Sunday October 8th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -10 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
The Detroit Lions are riding high as they prepare for a home contest against the winless Carolina Panthers. Ford Field will be rocking as the home crowd is finally witnessing a football team that looks as though they can compete with anyone in the league. The Panthers are still searching for some answers on offense as rookie first overall pick Bryce Young is still finding his way in the league. It’s been many seasons since we’ve seen the Lions entering a game as double digit favorites, and we’ll see if this is as big of a mismatch as the spread would indicate.
It’s been a rough start for the offense of the Panthers and rookie quarterback Bryce Young and things won’t get easier on Sunday against the Lions. A defense that was once laughed at in Detroit, is now a force to be reckoned with and getting better it seems each week. Even with a banged up secondary, the Lions should be able to challenge the Panthers offense that is simply lacking playmakers. Panthers right tackle Taylor Moton is going to be busy all game long with Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill, who will look to get Young and force the QB to get rid of the ball before he’d like to. For the Panthers to help their quarterback and have a chance in this game they need to run the ball successfully. Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard have had a few nice moments, but overall they aren’t explosive players who can be game-breakers. Combine that with the fact the Lions are allowing a downright stingy 3 yards per carry and it’s tough to see Carolina doing much on the ground. With receivers that are also lacking speed, where is the offense going to come from in this ballgame?
Offensively the Detroit Lions continue to roll behind their dominant offensive line. Their line is going to have a physical matchup against a tough front for the Panthers, but so far Detroit has been able to neutralize their opponents effectively. A week ago the Lions showcased what they could do grinding things out on the ground, and we’re likely to see a repeated effort towards that against Carolina. David Montgomery is definitely proving to be a Dan Campbell type of player, running hard and getting the tough yards when needed. We still haven’t even gotten to see Jahmyr Gibbs completely unleashed, but in a home game against this team, we just may. As well as the Lions can say they are defending the run, the Panthers have been on the opposite end of that spectrum ranking third to last in the league. The Lions won’t attempt to force things if they aren’t there, so before the Panthers do anything, they’ve got to find a way to slow the run down. Even with Jaycee Horn on injured reserve, the Carolina secondary is a strength, so Jared Goff will need to be on his game when he does need to throw. He continues to play mostly mistake free football, and as long as he does this, it’ll be tough for the Panthers to do much, as they need to help their offense out.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Panthers are 2-12 straight up in their last 14 road games
– The Lions are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games
– The Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games
How crazy does it feel to be living in a world where we say the Lions are just on another tier than an opponent, and that tier is them being substantially better? Despite having some talented players on the roster, this Panthers team may be the worst in the entire league, and they don’t seem to have the type of players that will even improve as the year progresses. We’ll see if Bryce Young is the exception to that, and if you’re a Panthers fan you absolutely need that. Back to this game, the Lions should be able to do what they want on both sides of the ball here. For a starved fanbase that is looking for some dominance, I don’t think we need to worry about the team coming out flat, or not taking this game seriously. Head coach Dan Campbell certainly doesn’t seem like the type that would be overlooking any opponents. This number is high for a reason, it’s just one good team against one bad team. We’re going to play it a little differently though, and look at the first half spread for the Lions. We get under the key touchdown number, and we don’t have to worry about a letdown in the second half or backdoor cover. The Lions should come out and establish the trenches and make enough plays to take the lead into the half.
BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions – First Half -6.5
Lions 30, Panthers 16 (First Half – Lions 17, Panthers 6)
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
New York Giants (1-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Sunday October 8th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
The New York Giants entered the 2023 season with a lot of optimism and expectations after their successes a year ago. Things haven’t played out the way they had hoped throughout the first quarter of the season, and they now enter a really rough stretch in their schedule. A road matchup with a Miami Dolphins team that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss is not ideal for team Big Blue. Can the Giants right the ship in time to stay alive this season, or will the Dolphins offense get back to their explosive ways?
Head coach Brian Daboll is undoubtedly a solid leader and one of the better offensive minds in the National Football League. It has to be frustrating for him to watch his team and his quarterback struggling so much in all phases of the offense. It would certainly help to get Saquon Barkley back, but these problems go beyond one player, as their offensive line has been atrocious. The Dolphins defense has not been good to start the season as they’re adjusting to some injuries, and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but one thing they definitely want to do is bring pressure. That could potentially spell more trouble for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who has to hear all about how the team made a mistake overpaying for his services. We’re not here to sell you on Danny Dimes being a franchise player, but you have to say until they can block, no one is succeeding at QB in that offense. It looks unlikely that the Giants top two linemen in left tackle Andrew Thomas and rookie center John Michael Schmitz are going to be able to go, which doesn’t bode well for improvement against Miami. For the Dolphins, their best pass rusher, Jaelan Phillips does look as though he may be ready to go, so let the mismatches begin. With a slew of mediocre wide receivers, New York needs someone to step up and become a leader. The Dolphins have given up a lot of big plays in the passing game, and the only chance the Giants would seem to have would be to hit some home runs throughout the course of the game.
The Dolphins offense you could say was a bit humbled a week ago in Buffalo, but even on a bad day for them, they still did some nice things. Mainly, they ran the ball effectively and continued to create some mismatches with the speed of their running backs. De’Von Achane could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft, and should only continue to see more work as the season goes on. Between Achane and Raheem Mostert, the speed at that position is tough for any team to handle, and will be really difficult for a linebacking crew that isn’t the most athletic in the league. Of course it helps the running game when teams are basically forced to play two deep safeties to slow down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins need to get Waddle going, and he will have some opportunities against the young cornerbacks of the Giants. On paper, New York has some players on the defensive side of the ball, yet somehow they just can’t seem to make enough plays to consistently win. This will be their biggest test so far, and the matchup definitely isn’t in their favor. Look for Tua Tagovailoa to get back to getting the ball out quickly to offset the pass rush of the Giants, and if he can get the ball into the hands of Hill and Waddle, points could come easily once again in Miami.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Dolphins are averaging 37 points per game this season
It’s going to be a long season for the New York Giants, and last year’s playoff victory could become a distant memory really soon. This is a really difficult spot for New York to be in coming off that embarrassing loss to the Seahawks and having to head to South Beach in the heat. The Dolphins on the other hand should be focused after their loss and ready to recapture the magic they had in weeks one through three. Miami’s offense will do what they do, and their style of defense is going to make another tough week for Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll. Because the good number is gone, (the game opened at -9.5) and we don’t want to wrestle with a potential backdoor cover, we’re going to attack this one differently as well. We’re looking at the Dolphins team total, which is set at a pretty wild 30.5 points. We’re playing the matchup and not the number here though as we’re expecting an output closer to 40 from Miami here. It’s unlikely the Giants can keep up, so we’re also going to play another first half spread bet with the Dolphins as well, even though we’re over the seven point number.
BetCrushers Take: Dolphins – First Half -7.5 / Dolphins Team Total – Over 30.5
Dolphins 38, Giants 22 (First Half – Dolphins 21, Giants 10)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Sunday October 8th
4:25pm
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 53.5 (-110)
Quarterback may be the most important position on the field, but it doesn’t always translate directly in the wins and losses column. The Vikings Kirk Cousins has played some impressive football, yet the turnovers for him and his teammates have resulted in just a 1-3 start. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand has looked pretty “ordinary” through the first four games for Kansas City, yet they enter the contest winners of their last three games. With the highest over/under total of the weekend, points are expected between these quarterbacks, in what is an important interconference matchup.
The offense in Kansas City looks a little different these days than it did in the beginning of Patrick Mahome’s career. What was once a big-play juggernaut, is now designed, or more likely forced, to be a physical grinding unit. We may need to find out if the Chiefs can get back to that explosive style in a game where they could have to keep up with the hometown Vikings. Kansas City has done a good job getting Isaiah Pacheco and their running game going, but Minnesota has stiffened up their rush defense from a year ago. Normally, you’d want Kansas City to run the football, but with their strength being the interior of the offensive line, that may not be the case. As great as Patrick Mahomes is at the QB position, he needs at least a little time to throw, and he needs people to throw the ball to. While his all-world tight end Travis Kelce is more popular than ever with the addition of his new celebrity girlfriend, his production has started out pretty slowly. That certainly could be random, or is it possible Father Time is finally starting to catch up with the future Hall of Famer? In this game, he’ll be facing another long in the tooth veteran as safety Harrison Smith could draw some assignments in what should be a really good matchup. That is if Smith is a go, as he hasn’t practiced early in the week. If the Vikings can contain Kelce, where does the offense come from? The team is desperately trying to find a receiver to step up, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice have all had some issues getting open and catching the football. The corners for Minnesota can be taken advantage of, by elite receivers. The problem here for the Chiefs would be they don’t seem to have any elite wideouts at this stage of the season. One other matchup to pay attention to is Vikings end Danielle Hunter, who will be matched up with the struggling Jawaan Taylor at right tackle. Hunter still has the ability to cause havoc even against a great pocket mover like Patrick Mahomes.
If football was played up to the red zone, the Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins would probably be 3-1 instead of 1-3. At times, this offense really makes it look easy, yet they continue to shoot themselves in the foot too often. He’ll look to keep the turnovers at bay against a defense that has suddenly become a pretty good group on all three levels. Cousins could be without starting tackle Brian O’Neill, which would not be ideal against a defense that likes to blitz, and is very aware of backup players. Even though they haven’t done a great job running the ball early in the season, expect the Vikings to try to get Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers going early to slow down the Chiefs pass rush, and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs get back their top linebacker though as Nick Bolton should return after missing last week to patrol the middle of the field for KC. When breaking down the Vikings offense though, it’s really all about the passing game. We know Cousins has great weapons at his disposal, led by All-Pro Justin Jefferson, but the Chiefs have put together a pretty solid defensive backfield with some nice drafting the past couple of seasons. The young DBs of the Chiefs can probably at least slow down the weapons on the outside for the Vikings, but it’s going to be hard for them to account for tight end T.J. Hockenson. The Chiefs, due to scheme, are generally not great at covering opposing tight ends, and Hockenson is the type of player who can exploit this. You have to think he wouldn’t mind making a case for being the top TE in the league with Kelce on the opposing sideline either. As always, this Minnesota offense is going to get their yards, it’s what they do in the red zone and if they take care of the ball that will decide whether or not they can knock off the defending champs.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the NFC
– The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
This could be a fun game to watch, and to be honest there does seem to be a little bit of “anything could happen” in this one. However, we’re pretty locked in on this bet and have been since Monday. When he see guys like Mahomes and Kelce, Cousins and Jefferson, you automatically assume a massive shoot-out type of game. While that’s not out of the realm of possibilities, we don’t think this one is going to play out that way, mainly based on what we’ve seen from Kansas City this year. As mentioned above, this is not a high-flying and fast strike offense, and their defense is actually really good. When you pair them up together, this total shouldn’t be set this high in our opinion. Look for a close game, but one that stays closer to the low 20’s than the getting into the 30’s. Yes, this under could be blown up by halftime with these teams, but we’re betting against that happening.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 53.5
Chiefs 24, Vikings 23
