Less sweat, more profit. That’s something I can get behind. A rare dub for the featured handicaps leads into an interesting slate of matinee baseball on this fine Thursday. My betting card is all totals and the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-29-2023 takes us to a steamy Kauffman Stadium for a Solo Shot. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (CLE -155, 9)
There’s something stirring in the great state of Ohio these days. The sleepy offense in Cincinnati has come alive with an infusion of hyped-up rookies. Cleveland’s recent shot in the arm has come from established veterans Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Josh Bell. Don’t get me wrong, top organizational prospects Will Brennan and Bo Naylor are on the scene and contributing as well. What’s particularly interesting is how the Guardians’ small ball approach is thriving without the benefit of mad stolen bases like the Reds – or the Royals for that matter.
CLE Offense, by Period
| HR | R | Line | BABIP | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 6 | 31 | .255/.333/.426 | .301 | 112 |
| L14 Days | 10 | 65 | .283/.340/.437 | .334 | 116 |
| Season | 53 | 318 | .248/.313/.375 | .293 | 90 |
Over the last couple weeks, Cleveland produced the third-most runs in the MLB on the shoulders of a hefty .334 BABIP. Those inflated numbers are tempered a bit by the last week’s production. Still good, but less than the prior week. Jose Ramirez’ strong form lends much of that surplus offense of late, especially when facing right-handed pitching (.343/.421/.567, 167 wRC+). Rookie Will Brennan’s impact against righties is nothing to sneeze at either. As far as I am concerned, the Guards’ offense is finally starting to round into the form that many of us expected coming into the season.
Kansas City, on the other hand, continues to struggle well below expectation – as a team in general, but specifically at the plate. This lineup has been a bottom-half group the last couple weeks (.225/.298/.338, 76 wRC+) with one key exception: 16 stolen bases. That’s the third-most in the majors over this period despite posting the eighth-lowest OBP. Matt Quatraro’s club is trying to make something out of nothing. It’s just that the something is barely greater than nothing.
S Bieber (R) vs. Z Greinke (R)
The Royals face a tough test with Shane Bieber on the mound. While the Guardians’ ace has been rock solid on the whole, he has not consistently been a lockdown pitcher. K.C. could help his cause though. That being said, Bieber’s away numbers are noticeably worse than when he pitches at Progressive Field (+1.59 FIP, +0.24 xFIP). Not terrible, but a FIP range in the high-3.00s to low-4.00s is a reasonable “in a vacuum” baseline estimate. Whether or not the Royals can capitalize and push a couple runs across against Shane is most likely the deciding factor in this game total considering that Cleveland’s high-leverage tandem of Trevor Stephan and Emmanuel Clase are ready to roll this afternoon.
Scoring against Zach Greinke is another story. The accomplished veteran has stumbled lately, yielding 3+ runs and 1+ home run in each of his last four starts without recording an out in the 5th inning. I’m still approaching Greinke on the conservative side in the mid-4.00 FIP range. The guy throws strikes but doesn’t get whiffs or many Ks (18.0%). That’s to be expected out of the crafty 39-year-old. It’s the home runs that have been his nemesis – a factor that can further unlock Cleveland’s offensive potential. After all, this is a high-OBP lineup that carries some left-handed power. Greinke could right the ship this afternoon, though the last three games’ BABIPs over .357 is an interesting attribute when facing a lineup in overachiever mode.
WAGER: Guardians First 5 Inning Team Total Over 2.5 -105 (.35u)
WAGER: Over 9 -105 (.65u)
Weather is another factor playing into the run scoring thesis. Temperatures should push 100 degrees toward the middle of the contest with somewhat unpredictable light wind. That tacks a few extra percent onto production estimates. The push probability is a little bit higher than I would typically like with a full game over position but my numbers get me into the 9.1-9.9 run range, making this low-juice play a go. Maybe I should have stuck to Cleveland team totals on the first half and full game ends versus relying on a Royals offense to contribute 3-4 runs. But my bets are in and that’s where I’m at with this AL Central series finale.
Heading for Home
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