Handicapping on a daily basis is a challenge that I’ve loved tackle for a long time now. Choosing which ones to headline a few days a week in the Breakdown has been the tough part so far in 2023. Saturday was no different. My reliance on Houston’s bullpen and defense proved to be the wrong move as the White Sox gritted out a much-needed win at the expense of Rafael Montero. Those are the breaks but the grind rolls on with a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-16-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ MIAMI MARLINS (MIA -145, 7.5)
No point in beating around the bush with this handicap. The side? Probably a bit inflated on the Marlins. The total? Borderline low at 7.5. Those perspectives loop back to the theme that this Nationals club could be a stealthy unit against left-handed pitching. Don’t get me wrong, racking up 6 runs against David Peterson yesterday will pad the stats a bit. Even so, the Nats hit Joey Lucchesi decently in his brief 2-inning outing on Saturday after punishing Sean Manaea last Wednesday. It’s safe to say, however, that the up-and-coming Jesus Luzardo is operating at a level or two above those starters so far this season.
Losing Victor Robles’ .963 OPS against southpaws has not helped Washington’s cause. Plus rookie platoon hitter Stone Garrett and his 1.007 OPS LHP split has been boom-or-bust lately. The bottom line is drawn at the top of the lineup where Lane Thomas (.372/.449/.558) and Luis Garcia (.406/.382/.625) have made a ton of hay versus left-handed pitching despite carrying .412 and .444 BABIPs, respectively. Fortunately, my handicap discounts the Nats’ excessive performance with this handedness split and holds them just below average. So there is a buffer in my process to account for these inflated individual numbers. Barring any significant players being held out of the game tonight, I can get behind the lefty-hitting trio of Alex Call, Thomas, and Garcia getting a couple ABs in five innings against Luzardo.
J Gray (R) vs. J Luzardo (L)
The other question concerns just how legit Jesus Luzardo is this season. The 25-year-old lefty finally put it together last year in his first full season in Miami, notching a career-high 100.1 IP in 18 starts. He has good swing-and-miss stuff even though the fastball/changeup combo hasn’t been as effective as it was in 2022. Strikeout rate has slipped to 24.6% (down 5.4%), which ties in nicely with the Nats’ 15.5% K rate against lefties. They’ve been putting the ball in play and have generally been rewarded for doing so.
One thing that I have not been able to figure out yet is whether Luzardo’s .344 BABIP is closer to his true range than last season’s .253. Reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Will positive BABIP regression come to fruition soon? The opposite question goes for Washington’s Thomas and Garcia. Those are the biggest downsides underlying the case for a Nats’ healthy outing against Luzardo. The kid has been good in the first 5 innings of work about as many times as he’s left the door open for opposing lineups.
WAGER: Nationals First 5 Inning Team Total Over 1.5 -110 (1.1u)
I haven’t been firing well on these featured handicaps lately. And the prospect of Jesus Luzardo keeping the subpar Nats lineup at bay is a serious one. So here’s to a couple quick runs this evening in Miami. BOL!
Heading for Home
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