I took it personally when the A’s pushed a pair of runs across in the 6th inning Monday night, then quickly got over it with the help of Kansas City’s rout of the White Sox. Neither Cease nor Cortes were especially effective despite Oakland going scoreless in the first half in New York. That was about all I could ask for given the opportunities in those matchups. Tuesday’s slate was surprisingly barren for me all things considered – one position yielding a push – but things are different today as the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-10-2023 takes us to the Midwest for a pair of ugly handicaps. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
DETROIT TIGERS @ CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (CLE -118, 7.5)
E Rodriguez (L) vs P Battenfield (R)
Nothing like returning to the AL Central for another gripping handicap, right?. At least it worked in K.C. Monday night. The afternoon special at Progressive Field features the rookie Peyton Battenfield against veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. If there’s any pitcher cooking with gas right now, it is Eduardo by virtue of five straight starts yielding 1 run or fewer – including 8 innings of shutout ball against this Guardians team on April 18th. Even so, I grade E-Rod conservatively in the high-3.00 to low-4.00 FIP range. His suppressed 4.9% walk rate, 27.6% hard hit rate, and .206 BABIP should shade your perspective on him away from a misleading 1.81 ERA.
5-year-old Peyton Battenfield has been surprisingly decent in his first five MLB outings. Like Eduardo, Peyton’s M.O. is not as an overwhelming strikeout artist – though a 13.5% swinging strike rate is a promising sign for the rookie. He comes off of a strong 7 K, 7.0 IP start against the Twins with a rare 0-walk performance. Plus the kid held the Tigers to 1 run when he squared off against Rodriguez on April 18th. I can appreciate Battenfield’s ground ball approach too. Trouble revolves around a significant 50.3% hard hit rate, leaving the question of whether Detroit has the lineup to take better advantage this time around.
Troubling Splits
Detroit’s output against right-handed pitching has left a lot to be desired in 2023. Fortunately, this attribute aligns with my ratings on them in this regard. And, if anything, Cleveland lagging my expectations against southpaws adds a conservative bend to a favorable handicap behind the Tigers. As well as Josh Bell, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan have hit lefties, Jose Ramirez has been surprisingly silent. On the other side of the ledger, only Riley Greene and Eric Haase have carried the load for the Tigers against righties. And there is a chance that Greene might not make AJ Hinch’s lineup card this afternoon, though tomorrow’s day off mitigates that risk.
DET & CLE Trending Offensive Numbers
| Period | Slash Line | wRC+ | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | L7 Days | .272/.326/.441 | 114 | .317 |
| CLE | L7 Days | .201/.251/.270 | 43 | .252 |
| DET | L14 Days | .263/.327/.415 | 108 | .331 |
| CLE | L14 Days | .214/.277/.305 | 62 | .263 |
Detroit has benefitted from facing left-handed starters twice in the trailing 7-day period. Plus, as we all should know by now, teams punching above their weight class are bound to come back to their baseline and vice versa. My handicap grades these two offenses in a similar light across the full game, though the pitching gap – even with a more modest outlook on Eduardo – puts me on the small road dog on the first 5 inning line. It won’t be pretty but that’s where my money is at.
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings +103 (1.5u)
NEW YORK METS @ CINCINNATI REDS (NYM -160, 9)
J Verlander (R) vs H Greene (R)
We’l’ take a ride southwest down I-71 to Cincinnati for the evening matchup between reigning AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander and young phenom Hunter Greene. My focus, however, is a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has been far from hateful in recent weeks. Last night’s 7-run affair against David Peterson and company skews their current form a tad though. Prior to that 7-6 victory, the Reds had been chugging along at a 15% premium in the trailing 14-day period to their full-season numbers.
CIN Offense, Home/Away Splits
| Slash Line | wRC+ | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | .254/.335/.418 | 94 | .314 |
| Away | .238/.310/.322 | 76 | .313 |
Like many other teams, there’s no place like home for the Cincinnati offense – especially when Great American Ball Park is the spot. But the park-adjusted overview shows that the Reds have wider home/away splits than most teams. How do they negotiate a future Hall of Fame starter though? That’s the tricky part. His season debut against the Tigers was fine (5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 solo HRs) with a 5 K/1 BB split fairly in line with last year’s performance. He’s a mid-3.00s veteran who leans heavily on his ability to keep hitters off the base paths. But his increasing weakness over time has been fly balls, and that’s what the Reds must take advantage of tonight to maintain some sense of momentum.
That’s all well and good, though the key for Cincy is to make Verlander labor and get a solid 3+ innings against the Mets’ accommodating bullpen. It all comes down to the Reds’ four key hitters against right-handed pitching: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, and Jake Fraley. Fraley’s return to the lineup is a key consideration after recently missing a couple games due to back stiffness. He is the key unknown – and likely the biggest gap in my handicap – for tonight. The other three will populate the top of David Bell’s lineup card. And that’s a good thing, considering how they have feasted at GABP in 2023. Getting to 4 runs should be a sweaty proposition but my probable range of 4.0-4.3 checks the box and gives me another reason to root for the Redlegs this evening.
WAGER: Reds Team Total Over 3.5 -110 (1.65u)
Heading for Home
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