After a quick break on Sunday, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-3-2023 returns with a quick solo shot to get the week started. Unfortunately, the last couple featured handicaps were duds to say the least. So I owe our readers some good ones this week. Let’s dive right into a divisional matchup in the NL Central and get a winner out there for our readers. BOL with your wagers today!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CHICAGO CUBS @ CINCINNATI REDS (CHC -120, 8.5)
Chicago heads to Great American Ballpark for a battle with division co-leader Cincinnati. Don’t worry, I’m not too delusional. The Reds are destined to lose their grasp on the lead sometime soon. An aspiring Cubs squad could be the group to knock them off their perch this week. Both clubs wrapped up NL Central series to start their seasons and roll right into another one. Just don’t be swayed too heavily by an overperforming Reds lineup and a sluggish Cubs group to date. We are talking about only three games, after all.
Cincinnati likely employs their modest platoon approach against left-hander Drew Smyly much like they did Saturday against Pittsburgh’s Rich Hill. Shortstop Kevin Newman and outfielder Stuart Fairchild are really the only right-handed bats to substitute, though it’s really more about playing to the strengths of key hitters Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, and Wil Myers. They still face an uphill climb to the tune of a 5-10% offensive deficit to Chicago in this situation.
For the Cubs, it’s all about balance. I do not have them pegged as a team particularly vulnerable to handedness splits – especially at the top half of their lineup. Facing a right-hander like Connor Overton takes a little zip out of someone like Joey V’s guy Patrick Wisdom, though the likes of Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger don’t mind at all. This offense is in need of a wakeup call and the Redlegs’ pitching staff could be the ones to provide that service. It is a better group comparatively. Whether they execute more effectively starting tonight has yet to be seen.
D Smyly (L) vs. C Overton (R)
When it comes to price, the road favorite in the 55% range is spot on in my opinion. Not because of the form these lineups are in. The gap is not wider because of the uncertainty that 33-year-old southpaw Drew Smyly brings to the table. He settled into a low-4.00 FIP form last season with the Cubs as a wily pitch-to-contact veteran. And Drew may have stumbled into something with a cutter/sinker pair to go with more curveballs despite Spring Training being far from accommodating to the southpaw. Yet there were bright spots like him continuing to throw strikes and getting some whiffs (13 K, 2 BB). Unfortunately, the tradeoff is yielding quite a bit of hits to opponents.
He squares off against 29-year-old Connor Overton, who could use a change of scenery after a rough spring in the Cactus League. All that after the career minor leaguer had plenty of ups-and-downs in a couple short stints with the Reds last year. I can’t say there is something to Overton being more successful away from GABP at this point, capped off by his final start of 2022 being a scoreless 5.1 IP in Chicago. You hate to put too much into Spring Training but I cannot ignore how rough things went for him (23 ER, 26 H, 11.2 IP) in Arizona’s hitter-friendly environment.
Leaning On the Bullpens
I’m putting these two starters on the getting pulled in the 5th inning plan. It’s a combination of managers taking being more cautious with their first starts of the season plus general lack of effectiveness. Unless both lineups are completely ineffective – which is a very real possibility – the bullpens will come into play for a healthy chunk of the game. That stresses Chicago’s iffy middle relief corps consisting of all right-handers. So a quick leash does create the potential for Cincy manager David Bell to go to the substitutions if critical scoring situations arise in the 5th or 6th innings. That could be a short-term gain, long-term shorthanded scenario.
Plus Cincinnati’s bottom five unit has danced around early issues with a 1.54 ERA and 3.56 FIP/5.39 xFIP to open the year. These are short-run observations in the course of a very long season, however. I cannot imagine David Bell dipping into the well for a third straight game with his only reliable back end arm, closer Alexis Diaz. Everyone else should be available, but that’s not saying a lot considering the sketchy personnel occupying the Reds bullpen.
WAGER: Over 8.5 Runs -105 (2.1u)
There’s not a ton of difference in the weather conditions between yesterday afternoon’s cool temps and this evening’s slightly warmer but breezier weather in the Queen City. A sub-10 mph wind out of right field will play a role in taking about half of Great American Ballpark’s generosity out of the equation, especially for lefties. Still, this is about getting after suspect starters and making hay against each others’ middle relievers to get that much-needed ninth run.
Heading for Home
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