Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 38-39-1
Week 16 Recap:
Mediocrity equals losing money in sports betting, and after a 1-2 small weekend, our record sits under .500 for the first time this season. Back to back 1-2 weekends has us mildly depressed heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. Not enough to give up though, as we’re hoping to right the ship. In reviewing our week 16 plays, they were all really close, with one falling our way, and two disappointingly going against us. We felt good about the Tennessee Titans, despite Malik Willis getting the start at quarterback, mainly because of Derrick Henry. The big back dominated the Texans yet again, however he had yet another costly fumble when the Titans were looking to put the game away, and ultimately the Titans defense gave up the go ahead score, knocking the Titans out of first place in the AFC South. The Eagles also was a disappointing loss, as they held a lead until late in the fourth before the Cowboys were able to gain a field goal advantage. Philadelphia was driving to tie or take the lead, when Miles Sanders also coughed up the ball, marking a fourth turnover of the game for the Eagles. The Cowboys tacked on a field goal to go up six, killing the plus five, and holding the Eagles on fourth down at the end to secure the win. Our win was a third straight teaser victory, as the 49ers had a pretty easy victory over the Commanders, and the Buccaneers squeaked out an overtime win against the feisty Trace McSorley led Cardinals. Certainly could have been a 3-0, or 2-1 week, but it ends at 1-2, which seems to be the way our season has gone overall.
Week 17 Picks:
There are some interesting scenarios for really the first time this season with teams that have literally nothing to play for. If anything, they are more concerned with staying healthy for week 18, than actually winning games. That adds an additional element into handicapping that can make things even more unpredictable than the normal variance you’ll feel on a given weekend. We tried to stick to games with teams who did have meaningful playing scenarios, and landed with 6 total wagers. We look to stay hot with our teaser bet, and have some more traditional wagers than we’ve had for most of this year. Let’s see if this old school approach can generate some positive results.
New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
New York Jets (7-8) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-8)
Sunday January 1st
4:05pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, Wa
New York Jets -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
The Seahawks and Jets will do battle Sunday in a game that each team needs to stay alive for a playoff berth. Mike White returns as the Jets starting quarterback, in what the team hopes will provide the spark the team was missing in his absence. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks look to get back on track after a late season regression has them on the outside looking in for a wild card spot. For all intents and purposes, this is a playoff game, as the loser will almost certainly be eliminated from contention.
We won’t get into the complexities of what will happen with former number two overall pick Zach Wilson in the offseason, we’re locked in on what the Jets offense will look in a must-win road game. Quarterback Mike White returns from his rib injury and gets the start, which should provide a needed boost for New York. The Jets would like to get back to a little more of what they like to do on offense, which is running the football on first down. They should be able to do just that against a Seahawks defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in stopping the run. Expect the Jets to try to run between the tackles where the Hawks have been vulnerable all season long. If they are able to establish a running game, that should help White out with some play-action passing to attack down the field. The Seahawks have not only had their challenges stopping the run, they also are not great at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. White has proven in his young career that he can absolutely get the ball downfield when he has time in the pocket. The marquee matchup in the passing game will be rookie Garrett Wilson and rookie corner Tariq Woolen, who will see quite a bit of each other.
Statistically speaking, the Seahawks offense is still playing fairly well after a hot start to the season. Realistically, it hasn’t been nearly as good as it was just a few weeks ago. Geno Smith is still playing solidly, however he’s missed some big plays, and turned the ball over. Those issues have to stem somewhat from an also stalled rushing attack, and Seattle enters this game with all three running backs banged up. That’s not ideal when you’re facing a stout front seven, that has held opponents to under four yards per carry on the season. If we know anything about Pete Carroll, it’s that he’s still going to do everything he can to try to establish some form of a running game. We’re going to assume that’s going to be mostly unsuccessful, which means Geno Smith is going to have to take care of moving this offense. The Seahawks offense really need Tyler Lockett back at receiver to partner with D.K. Metcalf in the worst way. Without Lockett, the Seahawks offense becomes much simpler to defend, and that especially holds true when facing a defense with a player like Sauce Gardner. Advanced metrics have Gardner ranked at or near the top of not just rookies, but all cornerbacks in the league. Can the Seahawks offense get enough from a guy like Laquon Treadwell or a banged up Marquise Goodwin to help Metcalf if he’s somewhat contained?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Jets are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games
Not many people would have circled this game on the calendar before the season as having a major impact on the playoffs in each conference, yet that’s why they play the games. The thought process for this wager is really based on the old school principle of defense wins championships. It might be a little outdated, but allow us to explain. The Jets defensively match up pretty well with the Seahawks, and should be able to slow them running the ball, and lock up their limited weapons in the passing game. On the other side of the ball, Mike White just has this offense believing that they can be a good team. The Jets offensive line, which is mediocre, should be able to control the interior, and although not remarkable, the Jets have enough weapons to win their matchups. This should be a close game, as the spread would indicate, and one thing to watch will be how much of an impact the 12th man has on a young quarterback like White. He’s really shown no signs of being easily rattled, and has actually been great on the road thus far in his early career. With the Tua concussion news, this Jets team sees the door opening for them to get into the playoffs, and they should be able to squeeze through it in a tight one. Don’t let the slight number movement scare you here, as it has nearly no impact on a potential final score.
BetCrushers Take: New York Jets -1.5
Jets 23, Seahawks 19
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) vs. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
Sunday January 1st
8:20pm
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -3.0 (-115)
Over/Under 36 (-110)
As expected, the AFC North has been an entertaining and competitive division throughout the first sixteen weeks of the season. The Ravens are hosting the Steelers in a renewal of one of the best rivalries in the NFL. Baltimore needs a win to keep their hopes of the division alive, as the Steelers need to win out and get some help to sneak into the final wild card slot. Which team will capture this chapter of the rivalry to come away with an important win?
Don’t look now but the Steelers and their offense seem to have found some rhythm in the back end of the season. Kenny Pickett has made some nice strides, and it will be fun to see how he can perform in a divisional road game against a tough Ravens defense. Pickett will need to shoulder the load for Pittsburgh as it’s unlikely that Najee Harris and the running backs will be able to do much on the ground against a tough defense. Calais Campbell is questionable to go, which might provide a little bit of relief on the interior, but it will be tough sledding either way. The pass rush and pass defense for Baltimore has also improved greatly since the start of the season, which means Pickett will really be tested throughout. The rookie QB has put up some pretty impressive numbers during the recent 5-1 streak for the Steelers, as he’s spread the ball around to the multiple weapons in the passing game. One thing Pickett has really done well is make good decisions, knowing when to push the ball, and when to play it safe. That’s going to be key in what is expected to be a slugfest type of game. The Steelers have to win the turnover battle, or at the very least not lose it, if they want to pull off the road upset.
Another week and another question of who will be playing quarterback for the Ravens in this game. Most, including the Ravens staff expected Lamar Jackson to be back for this matchup, but as of Thursday he still hasn’t practiced, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to go or not? Without knowing Jackson’s status, it’s a little tough to truly break down the X’s and O’s of their offensive game plan. One thing we can say pretty certainly, is this offense will move better with Jackson than it will with Tyler Huntley. No knock on Huntley, who has played well in relief, and actually has an alternate Pro Bowl selection somehow? The problem for the Ravens in this game is they’ve been fully reliant on their rushing attack over the last month. After a horrible 2021, the Steelers were able to fix their rush defense and rank near the top of the league this year. If you like smashmouth football, the battle between the finally healthy Ravens offensive line and the Steelers front seven should be an excellent one. It’s been well documented, but watch the impact that T.J. Watt has in this game. The Steelers defense is a completely different unit with him on the field.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Steelers are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Steelers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Ravens are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home vs. the Steelers
You may have to hunt this game down as it’s actually off the board at several books, anticipating the injury update with Lamar Jackson. There are still some key numbers of three out there, and whether Jackson plays or not, that’s a number we like in this situation. The Steelers are playing good football since the return of T.J. Watt, and as quarterback Kenny Pickett continues to develop. At the end of the day, this game is setting up as a traditional Steelers-Ravens battle that’s going to be close and come down to the wire. With that being said, it feels like taking the points is the right call here in a game that Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at winning outright. A push is a real possibility for sure, but the numbers are definitely on the side of the Steelers in this contest.
BetCrushers Take: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
Ravens 24, Steelers 23
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Chicago Bears (3-12) vs. Detroit Lions (7-8)
Sunday January 1st
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -6 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
The Chicago Bears head to Detroit with the objective of playing spoilers against the Lions at Ford Field. Fresh off a disappointing loss and performance, the Lions need to rebound to keep their playoff dreams alive in the crowded NFC wild card race. The Bears are running the season clock out and looking to build some confidence and momentum heading into next season. Points are expected in what most believe will be one of the more offensive games of the weekend.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields remains a polarizing player with many proclaiming he is the QB of the future destined for greatness, and others insisting he can’t win at this level. We’ve got our theories for a later discussion, but it’s really unfair to grade him at this point of the season. The Bears should get some of their weapons back this week, but this game is all about the running backs. The whole world watched the Lions defense get absolutely shredded a week ago in the running game, and you know Chicago was playing attention. The Bears really want to run the ball anyhow, as their offensive line is far superior at run blocking as opposed to pass blocking. David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert should find success, although one would have to think the Lions will be spending a lot of emphasis on the topic heading into this game. You can’t understate what the loss of safety DeShon Elliott does to the defense of Detroit, and it looks as though he may miss this game as well. That doesn’t even take into account what we know Justin Fields can do running the football, which was a ton the last time these two teams played. A key for the Bears in this game is to keep this one close early on so they can lean on the running game and not be forced into obvious passing situations.
Things haven’t always been pretty for the Lions on offense in 2022, but at times they have moved the football as well as any team in the league. The good news for them is they’ve been pretty dominant when playing at home. The even better news is they’re playing a Bears defense that simply isn’t good enough to hold up against good NFL offenses. The Lions boast a top five offensive line, and you could argue that the front seven for the Bears is weaker than any other team in the league. That should be good news for the Lions running game, but even more so for Jared Goff and the passing game. Goff has been really good all season, and particularly when afforded time in the pocket. He should have that in this game, and he has his full complement of weapons at the skill positions, which means yards and points should be plentiful. Keep an eye specifically on number one wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown who has a really juicy matchup working out of the slot. It’s worth noting that Lions have platooned the tight end position with Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra and James Mitchell and haven’t missed much without star T.J. Hockenson. At the end of the day, unless the Bears can create some turnovers, they’re really going to struggle stopping the Lions on this side of the ball.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 9 games for the Bears
– The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 games for the Lions
The Lions really took a step backwards a week ago, and head coach Dan Campbell owned it. Expect a much better performance on the defensive side of the ball, and more importantly for this wager, look for a good showing on offense. The Lions have lit up the scoreboard at home this season, and that should continue against what is arguably the weakest defense in the league at this point of the season. Whether running or passing, as long as the Lions don’t turn it over they should score plenty in what we’re expecting to be a 30+ point effort. The Bears offense should be able to do enough on the ground to at least keep this game from being a blowout, which should also keep the Lions with their foot on the pedal. If the Lions want to prove they’re playoff worthy, this is a game they have to control and win.
BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions – Team Total – Over 29.5
Lions 34, Bears 24
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (12-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-8)
Sunday January 1st
4:25pm
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -3.0 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Another divisional matchup with the Green Bay Packers taking on the Minnesota Vikings in one of the more intriguing games of Sunday. The Packers have been a thorn in the side of the Vikings for most of Aaron Rodgers career, but Minnesota has a chance to put an end to the playoff dreams of their bitter rivals to the east. Will Minnesota continue to find ways to come away with a win, or will Lambeau in the cold prove too much for their winning to continue?
When you break down advanced metrics like offensive EPA and DVOA, the Minnesota Vikings could be considered as underachievers on offense. This team does go through some droughts, but make no mistake, they can move the ball when they need to. They have a favorable matchup against what has been a disappointing defense for the Packers, but this is not in the cozy confines of a warm dome stadium. The Vikings need to lean on their running game and Dalvin Cook to exploit what has been a soft Packers front all season. The Packers are one of the few teams that can matchup somewhat with the Vikings receivers, but they really will have no answer for Cook, assuming Minnesota will stay committed. When the Vikings do throw, it’s encouraging that they’ve found some help for Justin Jefferson via T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn. Jefferson will find his way to some targets, but it could be one of previously mentioned guys who could be the keys on third downs. As always, there will be a question about how Kirk Cousins performs in a big spot, although this realistically isn’t an overly high pressure situation for the quarterback. The biggest question is can this explosive offense execute at a high level in the cold conditions at Lambeau?
It took a good portion of the season, but the Packers finally have a little bit of life on offense. That likely coincides with the emergence of rookie receiver Christian Watson, who has become the focal target for Aaron Rodgers in the passing game and in the red zone. Watson is “iffy” to play this weekend, and if he can’t go, that would be a pretty big blow to Rodgers and the offense. Fortunately, the Vikings aren’t great at stopping the run, which means Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should find some consistency running the ball. In their first meeting with Minnesota, both Jones and Dillon ran it well, they simply didn’t get enough opportunities. Expect Matt LaFleur to rectify that in this rematch. In games where the Packers have run the ball well, their passing game has looked pretty crisp, if not explosive. Expect that type of performance from Rodgers, as this is the type of environment and game where he tends to come up big. The Packers hope to get left tackle David Bakhtiari back from his unexpected absence, which would be good timing as they’ll need to slow down former teammate Z’Darius Smith and the Vikings pass rush.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite
– The Packers are 4-2 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Vikings are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 road games
We’re going to find out here if the Aaron Rodgers and Packer magic is real, or if the Vikings have unseated them atop the division in this matchup. Yes, everyone knows the Vikings have been lucky with a historic point differential for a winning team, and probably aren’t on the elite tier level as some of the other teams in the league. That being said, who are the Packers to be laying points, even in Lambeau late in the year? As nearly all of the Vikings games have been, this one should be really close, so getting the key number of three here is huge. Much like in the Steelers/Ravens game, a push is a real possibility, but regardless, this game should be really competitive. Hopefully we’re selecting the correct week to buy into the Vikings in a tough road spot.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings +3
Packers 23, Vikings 21
Teaser Bet
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
and 
vs. 
New Orleans Saints (6-9) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Sunday January 1st
1:00pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
Buffalo Bills (12-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
Monday January 2nd
8:30pm
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Eagles -.5 and Bengals +7.5
An important game in the NFC and in the AFC are paired with a favorite and an underdog in a week 17 teaser. The Eagles should have their starting quarterback in the lineup as they’ll take on a desperate Saints team at Lincoln Financial Field. The Bengals and Bills enter their Monday night contest as two of the hottest teams in the league with long winning streaks. Three of these teams have their sights on the number one seed, while the Saints are just hoping to punch a ticket to join the postseason dance.
The Saints mustered up just enough offense in frigid Cleveland to keep their dreams of the playoffs alive for another week. Despite some banged up players on the Eagles defense, it’s going to be a tough assignment to string together some consistent offense in Philadelphia. From a quarterback rating standpoint, Andy Dalton has played pretty solid football, but it’s mainly because he’s mostly taken care of the football. He’s going to need to do a lot more to keep pace with the Eagles offense in this game, which is no small task. The Saints should get wide receiver Chris Olave back to help, although he’s got a tough assignment against the corners for the Eagles. A small mystery for New Orleans this season is why they haven’t had more success running the football? As an example, they did just an average job against a horrid Browns rush defense in bad weather conditions. They’ll need to pick it up against the Eagles who have tightened up their run defense the past few weekends. While most of the Eagles stars are in the lineup defensively, they are missing some key contributing pieces, so it may not be the dominant type of performance that you might expect. Offensively, it looks as though Jalen Hurts will be back in the lineup for Philly, which should give them more diversity in their play-calling. Gardner Minshew played well in his start, but having Hurts running ability outdoors is really important to this team. Hurts has a good game to return as well, as the Saints front four has not been able to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks much this season. That combined with a thinned out secondary should spell success in the passing game for A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. We saw a week ago how important tight end Dallas Goedert is to this offense as well.
Do you consider it a good thing or a bad thing that the Bills offense seems to be sputtering in the second half of the season, yet they’re still putting up points and winning? They’ll face a tough test in the game of the week that will likely determine the number one seed in the AFC when they face the Bengals. The Bills offensive line has struggled for most of the season, although they will have center Mitch Morse back from concussion. The Bengals also look to have Sam Hubbard back on their defensive line, and he is the type of edge rusher that can give Bills right tackle Spencer Brown problems. Recently, the Bills have been able to put together a respectable running game, but the Bengals have been tough to run on all season. Despite the fact this will be a cold and difficult environment, Josh Allen is going to have to throw the ball a lot, and carry the load as he usually does on offense. Allen has gotten away with some turnovers against teams like the Packers and Bears, but if he doesn’t take care of the ball against the Bengals, this game will get away from the Bills. On the Bengals side, this game comes down to a lot of what their season has offensively. How well can their offensive line protect quarterback Joe Burrow? They’ll be ‘without La’el Collins at right tackle, so we’ll have to see how much of an impact that will have. The Bills have been able to put together a decent pass rush, adjusting to life after Von Miller. They have to generate pressure in this game if they’re going to have a chance at slowing down Burrow and his talented wideouts. They also welcome back tight end Hayden Hurst, which should help Cincinnati on third downs. The secondary for the Bills has really been exposed in the second half of the season as Tre White works his way back from his ACL surgery. They’d prefer to leave their linebackers and safeties deep to help, but if they can’t get pressure with their front four that will change the plan. Overall, both teams should be able to get some points up on the board.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Eagles
– The Eagles currently hold the 1 seed in the NFC
– The Bills are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Bills have won 6 games straight up in a row
– The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games
The Eagles are a much better football team than the New Orleans Saints. How much more needs to be said about a team playing at home wanting to wrap up a bye and the number one seed for the playoffs? The game may not be a route, as the Saints have played most teams tough this year, and are not awful by any means. But coming into Lincoln Financial Field and leaving with a win is a really difficult task with everything on the line. In the Monday Night Football matchup of behemoths, the thought process is pretty simple. Iron sharpens iron, and these teams are going to absolutely battle this out, knowing what a potential one seed could afford them in a run to the Super Bowl. This should be a one score game, so realistically, we’d tease whichever team was getting the point here. In this case, it happens to be the Bengals, as they’re hot streak should continue, with at the very least, a close loss, if not an outright win. We’re also going to play an over in the Saints and Eagles game as the total is simply too low.
