The AL East stood as MLB’s deepest division with four teams above .500, three of which made the postseason. New York’s return to the top of the hill got them as far as the ALCS where the ride ended abruptly at the hands of the World Series Champion Astros. In a less ceremonious fashion, Wild Card representatives Toronto and Tampa Bay could not escape their hotter postseason opponents Seattle and Cleveland. However, it was the surprisingly strong Orioles and a disappointing Boston club that finished six games under .500 who provided challenging depth to the East in 2022. Who has done the most this offseason to make a charge at the 99-win Yankees?
This is one in a series of six Divisional Previews & Futures outlooks for the 2023 MLB season – the 4th Annual Edition at BetCrushers.com. It’s an incremental process from season to season full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)
2022 Division Winner: New York Yankees
2022 AL East Final Standings
- New York Yankees (99-63)
- Toronto Blue Jays (92-70)
- Tampa Bay Rays (86-76)
- Baltimore Orioles (83-79)
- Boston Red Sox (78-84)
New York Yankees 2023 Win Total: Open 95, Now 94.5
2022 Result: Over 91.5 (99-63 / Pythag: 106)
The excitement around Aaron Judge’s home run barrage masked a lot of the Yankees’ second-half struggles. The nightly record chase updates added intrigue to a team that lived off the tremendous margin they created before the All-Star Break. At 64-28, New York looked to be king of the American League hill. The second half was a completely different story. Judge & Co. posted a modest .500 record after the break and squeaked by a scrappy Guardians team in the ALDS before being swept by Houston. Their position player value was second only to the Dodgers and, fortunately, Aaron Judge – the man responsible for nearly1/3 of it – stays in town on a nine-year deal to wreak more havoc in the AL East.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C. Rodon (LHP – SP)
- T. Kahnle (RHP – RP)
Subtractions:
- L. Luetge (LHP – RP)
- J. Taillon (RHP – SP)
- M. Castro (RHP – RP)
- A. Benintendi (OF)
- M. Carpenter (INF)
- M. Gonzalez (SS)
- A. Chapman (LHP – RP)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 95 – 98
— Position Players —
In light of all the comings and goings with the Yankees’ roster the one constant that made this lineup tick was American League MVP Aaron Judge. Re-signing him was a must if this storied franchise wanted another crack at the Astros and the AL Pennant. You know his numbers by now: 62 home runs, .311/.425/.686 slash line, 207 wRC+, 133 runs, 131 RBI. General manager Brian Cashman has been around the block long enough to know the full on- and off-field ramifications of letting a generational player like Judge run off to San Francisco or anywhere else for that matter. The no-win task of replacing one-third of the team’s position player value from the outside is next to impossible.
The reality of the Judge situation in 2023 is that no one player – not even the man himself – is likely to recapture 2022’s 11.4 WAR. Regardless, multiple projections for an impressive 7-8 WAR make plenty of sense. 40+ home runs, .560+ slugging, and 100+ RBI are great returns on investment.
A Little Help From His Friends
With Bader in tow, though, Judge can return to being an excellent corner outfielder instead. Average defense in center is a neat skill to have, but Bader is light years beyond that.
The Yankees Should Extend Harrison Bader – Ben Clemens, FanGraphs.com – January 17, 2023
Aaron Judge may do a phenomenal Superman impersonation but the guy can’t play three positions. With Giancarlo Stanton essentially a designated hitter these days, the outfield’s composition has morphed around the MVP. Joey Gallo, Miguel Andujar, and Marwin Gonzalez shared outfielder duties early last year until the Yankees cut bait and traded for Andrew Benintendi and Harrison Bader. Unfortunately, Benintendi’s broken wrist limited his playing time in pinstripes to 4-5 weeks and Bader spent all but a couple weeks on the IL.
Through all of the turnover and injuries, the much-maligned Aaron Hicks was a quiet constant in the outfield. Many Yankees fans are fully aware that the 33-year-old switch hitter has never lived up to the expectations of his seven-year, $70M deal. Great defensive numbers in left field enabled him to crack the 1-WAR threshold but a lackluster bat trumped the glove. Now Hicks expected to get another crack at regular left field duties with midsummer call-up Oswaldo Cabrera casting a shadow over the veteran. Cabrera also showed great fielding skills in his limited time, fueling an expectation for another season of spectacular outfield defense across the board. The downside is that Bader, Hicks, and Cabrera are most likely a league-average hitting group. Another healthy season from the reigning AL MVP – even with regression factored in – should keep the outfield around plus-20% offensively.
Invigorating the Infield…
Change is blowing through the Yankees’ infield at a slower pace. 34-year-old DJ LeMahieu, who is in the middle of a six-year deal, is gradually losing playing time to younger talent like Gleyber Torres and Oswald Peraza. Fortunately, DJ who showed us last year that he still has a plus bat with some positional flexibility. This gives manager Aaron Boone an insurance policy in the form of a fairly reliable hitter who can play second and third base just fine. Gleyber Torres’ rebound season is a big reason for LeMahieu taking a back seat. Not only did Gleyber’s bat get back to his 2018-2020 baseline, the 26-year-old’s fielding made a 180-degree turn after moving from shortstop to second.
Aaron Boone has his sights set on a Torres-Peraza middle infield, barring significant setbacks by the 22-year-old shortstop prospect. If speed and range continue progressing from his brief 2022 debut as advertised, the Yankees stand to gain an additional 10% at the plate over Isiah Kiner-Falefa without losing any of IKF’s fielding prowess. That’s a huge factor supporting New York maintaining a strong infield defense along with an elite outfield defense. Plus the organization’s #1 prospect Anthony Volpe could be inserted into the mix at some point. Strength up the middle extends to catcher Jose Trevino, though he could regress a touch after his framing skills escalated suddenly after leaving Texas. Still, Trevino and Kyle Higashioka are a high-quality 3-4 WAR tandem even if they project as sub-par hitters.
…While Coping With Aging Veterans
This pushes the issue of tradeoffs. Can aging veterans Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Anthony Rizzo make enough offensive gains to balance out the outfield’s declines? Rizzo’s back is allegedly in good shape, though he recently admitted that it will need to be managed as the season wears on. Stanton’s injury woes max him out at three-quarters of a season, at best. Toss in some disagreement out there whether his contact skills rebound sufficiently. The power is there but 2022’s .211/.297/.462 line left a lot to be desired. Then you have 37-year-old Donaldson, who fielded well in his Yankees debut but lost around 30% at the plate. Chalk that up to a hard contact decline and a strikeout rate that spiked to 27.1%. There’s simply not enough confidence in upside gains that would cancel out Judge’s regression and other downward-trending factors that the Yankees lineup faces.
— Rotation —
The Yankees’ front office knows as well as anyone that if you aren’t improving, you’re falling behind. Cashman threw another log on the fire this offseason by signing the resurgent Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162M deal. Skepticism surrounding the lefty’s 2021 breakout was silenced by a 31-start, 6.2-WAR season in San Francisco. That made two seasons in a row of 30%+ strikeout rates, double-digit wins, and one of the best fastball/slider combinations in the majors.
He’s a fascinating story, and yet simultaneously a very straightforward pitcher. He throws an overpowering fastball. He throws an overpowering slider. He throws them both very hard, and with solid accuracy. It sounds almost too simple, but both pitches are spectacular, and they pair well together. He’s going to throw them; the question is whether batters can hit them.
Carlos Rodon Gives the Yankees a Pair of Aces – Ben Clemens, FanGraphs.com – December 16, 2022
Now the 30-year-old Rodon saddles up next to Gerritt Cole to lead a rotation on the move. Cole’s fifth straight 200+ inning season fell a couple WAR short of his big 2021. Perhaps the big righty isn’t a perennial sub-3.00 FIP lockdown pitcher but his inning consumption has tremendous value to the team. We all know the deal with Gerritt: tons of strikeouts and very few free passes, as evidenced by a 5+ K/BB ratio in four straight seasons – but his susceptibility to the long ball is a real thing. Fortunately, consensus projections figure Cole and Rodon around 370 innings for a combined 8-10 WAR. Look at it as a firm bump up from the 5.6 WAR produced by Cole and Jameson Taillon last season.
Growing Their Strengths
Is Rodon up to the task of replacing Taillon’s 177.1 innings? There’s a curious similarity between the two rising from the ashes of injury, after all. Extending that general concern of pitchers breaking down brings in the hopes for homegrown talent Luis Severino’s own rebirth. Tommy John surgery, shoulder issues, and other nagging setbacks derailed a promising start to his career. Severino may never return to the glory of delivering 384.2 innings and 11.0 WAR in 2017-2018, but that’s not necessarily what the team expects in 2023. Job #1: stay healthy and make 25+ starts. That much volume at mid-3.00s FIP quality surpasses the value of Jordan Montgomery’s and Frankie Montas’ combined 29 starts last year.
On the flip side, New York’s starting pitching depth was tapped early when Frankie Montas underwent shoulder surgery in late February. At least that is a strength of theirs with Nester Cortes and Domingo German having made 74 starts for the Yanks between 2021-2022. Cortes likely topped out around 160 innings and could regress back toward last season’s 3.13 FIP/3.63 xFIP. German has room to expand his workload and soak up a few more starts after a respectable second half. It’s fair to question Domingo’s strikeout rate drop down to 19.5% though. I can easily see someone like Clarke Schmidt get some play in the rotation with Lucas Gil’s status uncertain. Barring significant injuries early in the season, the Yankees rotation should weather the storm and add 2-3 wins of quality production.
— Bullpen —
Last season’s bullpen carried forth a tradition of excellence that started around 2015. And the good news is the band is back together. Aroldis Chapman and Miguel Castro gone in free agency? No problem at all. The high-leverage, late-inning nucleus of Clay Holmes and Michael King is bolstered by former Yankee Tommy Kahnle as he stages a comeback after a few years of tough luck. I can buy some of the skepticism of Holmes’ recent success because of his history of walk issues. Similarly, how legit are King’s secondaries all of a sudden? And will his elbow be good to go? King and Holmes accounted for close to half of the 2022 bullpen’s value, so these are key factors to monitor.
Tommy Kahnle’s return to the Bronx takes the edge off of losing Scott Effross for the year. A healthy 33-year-old Kahnle should bring 50+ innings of low-3.00 FIP action back to town. Plus a Jonathan Loisaga workload rebound helps the unit’s cause tremendously. Put it all together and the end result is a contingent of capable high-leverage relievers supported by better than average bulk arms. I agree with consensus projections for an overall decline with the bullpen but it’s still a top-half group. Don’t be surprised if they keep the year-over-year losses to a minimum if the rotation devours innings once again.
Toronto Blue Jays 2023 Win Total: Open 94, Now 92.5
2022 Win Total: Over 91.5 (92-70 / Pythag: 91)
Going into the 2022 season, Toronto was one of those teams where my final projections were very tight in the 91 to 94 win range. I knocked the Blue Jays down a couple wins after the final two weeks of Spring Training and found little value in their win total. Turns out the oddsmakers were spot with their assessment for treading water after besting their 2021 mark. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins filled the gaps in nicely during the previous offseason and doubled down on a deeper playoff run this season. Tie that with an open door to the AL East and Toronto could be in prime position for their first division crown since 2015.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C. Green (RHP – RP)
- B. Belt (1B)
- Z. Thompson (RHP – SP)
- D. Varsho (OF/C)
- E. Swanson (RHP – RP)
- C. Bassitt (RHP – SP)
- K. Kiermaier (CF)
Subtractions:
- G. Moreno (C)
- L. Gurriel, Jr. (OF)
- T. Hernandez (OF)
- R. Stripling (RHP)
- D. Phelps (RHP – RP)
- R. Tapia (OF)
- J. Bradley, Jr. (OF)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 84 – 100
— Position Players —
Eruption! (Cue the guitar riffs.) Multiple puzzle pieces came together for the Blue Jays offense in 2022. Highest batting average in the majors and top three on-base and slugging percentages led to the best output north of the border in nearly a decade. Five hitters with 24+ home runs can do that for a squad. Depending on what part of the year you’re looking at, the Jays were either scorching hot (e.g., .504 SLG in June) or just getting by. That’s baseball for ya. Manager John Schneider’s leadership may have been pivotal in getting the most from his lineup. Plus he got a little help from the front office this winter to push the AL East envelope.
The Art of the Deal
Toronto had a very interesting strategic offseason to say the least. General manager Ross Atkins cashed in on their immense depth at catcher by sending Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. to Arizona for the ultra-talented Daulton Varsho. Ironically, Varsho came up through the D-backs system as a catcher but broke out last year as primarily an outfielder. His progression as a hitter has been gradual since debuting in 2020, culminating in a solid .235/.302/.443 line last season. So it may surprise you that the 26-year-old earned 4.6 WAR with those numbers. Varsho’s deep value lies in part with spectacular fielding skills that made him a finalist for the NL Gold Glove in right field behind winner Mookie Betts.
The Blue Jays brass was diligent in improving their bottom-third outfield defense – not only with the Varsho trade but also by signing AL East lifer Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year deal. The glove-first centerfielder is a big part of an outfield overhaul that should lead the team’s overall defense improvement into top five territory. A healthy Kiermaier moves George Springer over to right field where a reduced likelihood of injury should help keep Toronto’s big investment in the lineup. Plus Springer’s defensive value in center took a firm step back in 2022.
This move towards defense comes with a small price to pay at the plate. Springer is expected to maintain a plus-30% bat, so no problem there. However, Kiermaier represents about a 25% decline from Gurriel and Varsho could fall short of Hernandez’ powerful output by 10-15%. There is debate about what Daulton’s 2023 campaign could produce though. Steamer and The Bat see a shortfall from Teoscar’s strong season but ZIPS is more optimistic on a full replacement of offensive value. Either way, there will be some sacrifice of hitting in exchange for fielding in the outfield.
Stacking the Deck on the Dirt
Gold Glove first baseman Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. received accolades for drastically turning around his defensive skills, helping to mask what many consider to be a down year with the bat. “Down year” is a relative term for a 32-homer, .274/.339/.480 season after a legitimate MVP-caliber 2021 in which he ripped 48 long balls and a .311/.401/.601 line. The good news for Vlad is a consensus expectation that falls somewhere in between those two seasons. His partner across the diamond, Matt Chapman – a favorite of BetCrusher Bradley – regained some lost power and has small upside on both sides of the ledger. Toronto could realize up to 2 more wins of value with their corner infielders, though any significant injury derails those gains since both were essentially everyday players last year.
It was interesting to read about Bo Bichette’s wheels falling off this winter. In other words, the Toronto shortstop is fast enough but not as fast as we thought he might have been. You know, one of those deals. The kid crushed it again with the bat and should shave down some defensive liability after a tough year in the field. Bichette’s double play partner has been somewhat of a revolving door as Cavan Biggio has struggled with injuries and production. Last summer’s trade for Kansas City’s Whit Merrifield may solve the Jays’ continuity problem at second base. The “problem” is that Whit’s partial season in Toronto was about as good as it gets with him.
Whit Merrifield Offense, 2022 by Team
| PA | Line | wRC+ | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR thru 7/31 | 416 | .240/.291/.346 | 77 | .269 |
| TOR after 8/1 | 134 | .280/.321/.464 | 123 | .302 |
The Blue Jays got the best of it when it came to Merrifield’s split season. (That’s a commonality between us handicappers and professional team front offices.) Realistically, the 34-year-old projects as a 90s-wRC+ hitter and may play a more nebulous role in the field. Santiago Espinal needs at bats and Cavan Biggio is on the bench as a left-handed bat. Let’s just say that John Schneider has options. He might have even more if middle infield prospects Otto Lopez and Orelvis Martinez pop in AAA.
Even without Gabriel Moreno, the catcher group retains considerable strength after ranking second in the majors both offensively and defensively. More of the same? Most likely as Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen are good defenders and should mesh somewhere in the plus-20% range with their bats. You can see one or both taking reps at DH alongside veteran left-hander Brandon Belt who came over from San Francisco. Jansen and Kirk – especially Kirk – are bats that Schneider wants in the lineup more often than not.
If Toronto’s cards fall the right way, their offense likely will not miss a beat. But the expectation for Chapman and Guerrero to both be in the lineup for 150+ games again comes with risk. Between that and lower overall production in the overall pushes me to lower the team’s offensive ratings with a little extra knock against their left-handed pitching split. Losing Teoscar Hernandez’ .648 slugging against southpaws is a key consideration there.
— Rotation —
The rotation did a damn fine job holding its own as a top-ten group despite being somewhat shorthanded. Hyun-Jin Ryu was shelved with Tommy John surgery, pushing Ross Stripling into a starting role in which he set career marks for starts (24), innings (134.1), and WAR (3.1). Stripling was the unsung hero of the group in light of Ryu’s absence and disappointing performances by Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios. But he’s out in free agency and now replaced by the Mets’ Chris Bassitt.
I’m a big fan of bringing in Chris Bassitt to bolster this rotation, especially if Jose Berrios does not bounce back into form. Bassitt’s role behind headliners Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman is a lot like the one he filled in New York. There’s support for another 30-start, 180-inning season around the 4.00-FIP mark. It still pencils out around a half-win short of Stripling’s effort though. Can Kikuchi pick up the slack? John Schneider is optimistic on his improved delivery, and a modest amount of recovery could net the team around 1.5 WAR – with at least half of that attributed to time in the rotation.
Sustainability Questions
For those of us who thought Kevin Gausman peaked in 2021 with the Giants, we were easily disproven. The veteran’s fastball/splitter combo was highly effective as expected, but his career-low 3.9% walk rate fueled a massive 5.7 WAR. All that came in the face of a bloated .363 BABIP too. Here we go again looking at regression in the neighborhood of 1-2 WAR. Your guess is as good as mine – which happens to be on the lighter side of reversion to the mid-4s WAR range. Still quite good but a tick down nonetheless.
Interestingly enough, questions surrounding the sustainability of Alek Manoah’s run prevention leave more doubt than Gausman’s projections. I don’t see anything that gets the 25-year-old back to 4.1 WAR after his transition from a high-strikeout guy to a more contact-oriented one. That change in approach was well worth the tradeoff as he vaulted to 196.2 innings in year two. We’re talking about top-tier workhorse levels that could be par for his course moving forward. Deeper starts are much appreciated by the bullpen and Manoah delivered plenty of them, going from 5.58 innings/start as a rookie to 6.34 innings/start in 2022. Alek’s likely range of regression is 1.0-1.5 WAR if healthy.
All this makes Jose Berrios the pivotal piece in the 2023 rotation, right? Last year’s 1.1-WAR effort left a bitter taste in the mouth after five impressive seasons spent mostly in Minnesota. His strikeout rate dropped more than 6% from 2021, but unlike Alek Manoah, Berrios’ batting average against jumped 65 points. Perhaps some of that could be chalked up to bad luck? A .328 BABIP coincides with the disparity between 5.23 ERA and 4.55 FIP/4.21 xFIP. At least a low-4.00 FIP expectation matching last year’s xFIP and SIERA gains the unit another win of value. Crunch the numbers on the back of an envelope and you get a drop in the range of 1-2 wins. Not too bad for a rotation with a few questions yet to be answered.
— Bullpen —
Toronto’s improved bullpen should keep pace in 2023 with a very similar cast of characters. Limited offseason moves shored things up with former Mariner Erik Swanson and one of the Yankees’ more productive relievers in recent years, Chad Green. The bad news is Green will miss most of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last June. Swanson, on the other hand, jumps right into the mix alongside Yimi Garcia as setup man to closer Jordan Romano. Asking Swanson to repeat 1.7 WAR via 1.68 ERA and 1.85 FIP/2.72 xFIP might be a stretch, though replacing David Phelps’ value is by no means out of the question.
I hate to get too lazy with bullpens but there is no shortage of proven arms to offset any declines from their high-leverage guys. There is power in numbers with the Jays’ relief unit and Schneider will need to balance the ups and downs as the season wears on. Mitch White has crossover value into the rotation as swingman, which could come in handy considering questionable starting pitching depth in AAA while Ryu continues to rehab. The 2023 bullpen figures to be fine assuming the team does not ask too much from it. And that “help” should come in the form of a top-end defense, strong lineup, and decent rotation even if their high-leverage arms aren’t the cream of the crop.
Tampa Bay Rays 2023 Win Total: Open 88, Now 89
2022 Result: Under 89.5 (86-76 / Pythag: 87)
Another season, another postseason appearance. Fans of quite a few other franchises (ahem, Cincinnati) are envious of what the Rays manage to pull off with regularity. Tampa Bay’s disappointing postseason exit in frigid Cleveland marked its fourth straight playoff appearance under manager Kevin Cash. They slogged through a season where the bats weren’t quite on point and injuries took their toll. From a staring pitching lens, however, the future is certainly bright behind 25-year-old lefty Shane McClanahan and his crew. The competition is getting stiffer in the AL East, so what can this organization do to rise to the top of the division?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Z. Eflin (RHP – SP/RP)
Subtractions:
- B. Raley (LHP – RP)
- J. Choi (1B)
- JT Chargois (RHP – RP)
- J. Guerra (RHP – RP)
- C. Kluber (RHP – SP)
- D. Peralta (OF)
- K. Kiermaier (CF)
- R. Quinn (OF)
- M. Wisler (RHP – RP)
- R. Yarbrough (LHP)
- M. Zunino (C)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 89 – 90
— Position Players —
Revisiting Tampa Bay’s 2022 season turned to surprise with how ineffective the offense was. The club’s lowest production since 2017 was suppressed by .377 SLG (25th), 139 home runs (25th), and 666 runs (21st). Are injuries to blame? Well, they certainly did not hurt. Rays players spent the third most days on the IL (2,296) behind Cincinnati and Minnesota. Most of those injury impacts stifled the pitching staff but five key position players each spent well over two months on the IL: Mike Zunino, Kevin Kiermaier, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Manuel Margot.
Was that high concentration of injuries a fluke, or do they reflect deeper health issues with certain members of the roster? Zunino and Kiermaier are no longer in town but Franco and Lowe are key cogs of the lineup. There’s no doubt that Tampa Bay needs their dynamic middle infield duo to be on the field if they want to vie for the AL East crown. Taylor Walls was dreadful (.172/.268/.285) in relief of Franco and a little bit of math shows that Wander can add another 2 wins of value if healthy for about 80% of the season. Fill-ins at second base weren’t quite as bad as the shortstop relief, though Brandon Lowe as a 20-30% plus hitter can definitely improve the team’s 2.8 WAR at second last year.
Finding the Right Combination
Accurately predicting Wander Franco’s health in 2023 would make my job a lot easier, let alone Kevin Cash’s. Lock down the middle infield with Franco and Lowe, then you have much more flexibility getting other good players into optimal positions. Ji-Man Choi’s departure in free agency opens up first base for the yoked-up Yandy Diaz in light of declining defensive attributes. The powerful pull-hitter Isaac Paredes put up nice fielding numbers in 362.1 innings at third base, which bodes well for a 6+ WAR corner infield tandem. Their hitting styles may have a yin and yang relationship but the net effect are a pair of 20-30%+ bats much like their middle infield counterparts.
If the Rays are fortunate enough to keep their infielders healthy, the pressure on younger players like Jonathan Aranda and Vidal Brujan to produce on a daily basis is alleviated. It also buys time for the power-hitting corner infielder Curtis Mead to show the team a little bit more in AAA before calling up the 22-year-old. I still have to factor in a modest amount of missed time for the starters despite the likelihood of fewer major injuries plaguing the Rays’ roster.
Mike Zunino’s departure for Cleveland did not leave a huge hole at the catcher position after appearing in just 36 games last season. The lion’s share of time behind the plate was occupied by the Rays’ 2023 duo of Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejia. This 1.4-WAR pair was effectively neutral on defense and lagged significantly with their bats. Bethancourt came over from Oakland in July and assumed a multi-position role out of necessity. Now the expectation is for Christian to take the reins as the primary catcher with decent framing skills and a slightly below-average bat. Mejia lags in both aspects yet is serviceable as backup.
Squeezing the Outfield Juice
The winds of change began to blow through center field last year. Lifelong Ray Kevin Kiermaier took his talents north of the border with Tampa Bay willing to move on from the 32-year-old. Last summer’s trade for Jose Siri filled Kiermaier’s spot while he was spending extensive time on the IL and the team did not look back. Siri has the range and power to play the position quite well – and is a key part of why I’m upgrading the Rays’ defense a couple of notches for 2023. The time spent by Brett Phillips and Manuel Margot in center field was suboptimal at best, and Siri’s bat is good enough to replace Kiermaier’s. In fact, it’s eerily similar. Otherwise, as Dan Szymborski said, the outfield “won’t keep the Rays out of a playoff spot, but it won’t push them into one, either.”
I can’t argue against the thought that both Manuel Margot and Randy Arozarena have no upside compared to prior seasons. However, Arozarena is still a firmly plus offensive presence despite lackluster fielding. Margot’s average bat leaves plenty of opportunity for others to thrive as the season wears on. Whether career minor leaguer Luke Raley or the up-and-coming Josh Lowe seize that opportunity is the question. Tampa Bay could stand to have at least one of these left-handed hitters break through, improving on their depressed split against righty pitchers. Between Wander Franco’s injury concerns and uncertainty in the outfield, I’m standing pat on the Rays’ offense – though I will likely balance their handedness splits by a couple percent. The team recognizes there are questions to answer and has a slew of non-roster invitee outfielders with them in Spring Training.
— Rotation —
The rotation’s bump up from a middling 2021 season was a slight surprise, especially in light of notable absences by Tyler Glasnow and, to a lesser degree, Luis Patino. Has Tampa Bay come to grips with Patino not panning out as an instrumental part of the rotation? Has the franchise altered its expectations for Glasnow after his injury woes? Even without them, the Rays’ starters still delivered a solid 3.45 ERA and 3.52 FIP/3.56 xFIP. Granted, a ton of credit is due to AL Cy Young Award finalist Shane McClanahan. [Note: Glasnow reported out 6-8 weeks several days prior to publishing this preview.]
McClanahan was downright amazing in his second season with the Rays, notching improvement in nearly every key area. Three additional starts and 43 more innings produced an additional win of value. The 25-year-old lefty’s 5.11 K/BB ratio was even more spectacular given the 30.3% K and 15.5% swinging strike rates. And when hitters made contact, it was typically weak (32.5% HH) and on the ground (50.2% GB). The guy is ace material and the Rays look to get a couple more starts and innings from him in year three. Last year’s 3.5 WAR is a solid baseline for 2023 expectations.
Deep and Well Rounded?
The 2022 season saw a pair of transitioning pitchers develop into key components of this season’s rotation. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen and southpaw Jeffrey Springs combined for 53 starts and 271.0 innings during their forays into starter-first roles. Their 5.5-WAR contribution may have set a tough bar to follow, especially if pitching coach Kyle Snyder tries to get more out of them. But you look at several projections and the likely outcome is a small step back to a mid-3.00s level with little increase in workload. So there’s a 1+ WAR loss from those two.
Plus you have to account for Corey Kluber’s surprisingly good age-36 season that yielded 164.0 innings across 31 starts at a sub-4.00 FIP level. Is this where Tyler Glasnow comes into play? The shaky assumption for Glasnow to break through the 20-start, 120-inning threshold for the first time in his career would soak up a lot of Kluber’s workload with greater effectiveness. But that’s a super iffy assumption. Cue the team’s only notable free agent signing Zack Eflin, who has also battled durability issues throughout the last couple seasons. Conservatively speaking, Glasnow + Eflin = Kluber. (Yeah, Ms. JJ hates when letters get thrown into math too.)
This is where organizational depth comes into play. Aside from Cash’s use of openers and other creative methods, he has rotation support from guys like Yonny Chirinos and Taj Bradley – maybe even Luis Patino. Without much of an indication when or if their #2 prospect Bradley gets the call this season, we’re looking at 10-20 starts from Chirinos and Patino to fill most of the gaps. That said, a healthy Tyler Glasnow would go a long way for this group. With this much uncertainty and no shortage of moving parts I’m approaching the Rays rotation with a status quo-plus perspective.
— Bullpen —
Needless to say, the bullpen’s nosedive into mediocrity was a big disappointment. Now the Rays have to move on with an adjusted baseline for their relief unit after it was a strong suit for quite some time. Adding insult to injury, the offseason losses of JP Feyereisen and Brooks Raley represent just shy of half of the group’s 2022 value. Without them, Tampa Bay will lean on a full season of Pete Fairbanks and an over-achieving Jason Adam. This is where I struggle to evaluate the full extent of the bullpen, conceding a more of the same outlook for 2023. Andrew Kittredge’s absence while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery is part of why expecting a sharp improvement is a tough pill to swallow.
The flamethrower Fairbanks should repeat his 1+ WAR season by virtue of more innings balanced by reversion back to a high-2.00s level. That’s compared to 0.86 FIP/1.12 xFIP in just 24.0 innings. Still not a bad guy to lead your bullpen by any means. Adam is a tough one to gauge after breaking out of a mediocre career with three teams in four seasons. Go figure that the Rays would find a hidden gem in a 30-year-old reliever. Jason dialed up one of the best sliders in the game and turned his changeup into a wicked gotcha pitch. Can he sustain filthy numbers like 45.7% ground ball, 27.3% hard hit, and 17.9% swinging strike rates in the face of a .194 BABIP? Beyond these back-end relievers is a jumbled mass of sub-4.00 pitchers like Jalen Beeks, Garrett Cleavinger, and Colin Poche. Cash wants workhorses and that’s what he’s got.
WAGER: Rays Over 88 Wins -110 (CZR 1/12)
The more I dug into the Rays’ outlook the less thrilled I was with this position. There isn’t as much meat on the bone considering how my most recent numbers run dropped Tampa’s win total just above where the market is. Maybe Kevin Cash’s magic will get this 86-win team up to a 90-72 record. Then again, maybe Glasnow’s recent injury is just enough to keep them under 88/89. This wager gives off vibes much like last year’s Cubs under position – one of those spots that you like a lot less now than you did when you punched it in. Either way, it’s time to let it ride!
Baltimore Orioles 2023 Win Total: Open 77.5, Now 78
2022 Result: Over 62.5 (83-79 / Pythag: 79)
The Orioles may have been the first of our five futures to cash last season but that’s far from the headline. Posting a winning record with the lowest payroll in the majors is the attention grabber. As optimistic as I was for a Baltimore rebound my projected win range still looked towards the upper 60s – nowhere near 83 wins! Having a touted rookie in Adley Rutschman make an immediate impact on both sides of the plate did not hurt the cause. Every aspect of the Orioles was markedly improved, not just the offense as some of us expected. This year, however, the markets wised up to this improved club and tacked on another 15 wins!
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C. Irvin (LRP – SP)
- R. O’Hearn (1B)
- A. Frazier (2B)
- M. Givens (RHP – RP)
- K. Gibson (RHP – SP)
- F. Cordero (OF)
Subtractions:
- J. Lyles (RHP – SP)
- R. Odor (2B)
- C. Gallagher (C)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 76 – 78
— Position Players —
Average can be good some seasons. And for the Orioles offense, getting close to league average in many categories was a big step in the right direction. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, Baltimore has truly struggled to put a competitive lineup on the field for the last five years. The infusion of new blood into a roster that already contained some bright spots apparently went a long way.
BAL Rookie Production, 2022
| PA | HR | Line | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rutschman | 470 | 13 | .254/.362/.445 | 133 | 5.3 |
| G. Henderson | 132 | 4 | .259/.348/.440 | 125 | 0.8 |
| K. Stowers | 98 | 3 | .253/.306/.418 | 107 | 0.2 |
The hype for top catcher prospect Adley Rutschman was real, and the kid delivered with flying colors. Not only did he crush it on the offensive side of the dish, the 25-year-old was credited as one of the best framers in the game with 18 runs saved. Regression for Rutschman? Very little, if any. Plus #1 overall prospect Gunnar Henderson hit the ground running in his August 31st MLB debut, going 2-4 with a homer and racking up good numbers in the final month of the season. Everybody loves Henderson’s bat and fielding skills, especially with the flexibility he provides between shortstop and third base. And Kyle Stowers’ solid debut was icing on the cake even though there is no clear consensus for his trajectory in 2023.
While Rutschman is entrenched as Baltimore’s lead catcher with James McCann in support, Gunnar Henderson’s role is a bit more fluid. He’ll be a regular fixture in this year’s lineup with positional flexibility, plate discipline, power, and speed. A three-headed approach to the left side merges Henderson with the also-flexible Ramon Urias and shortstop Jorge Mateo for a nice rotation that should serve the long haul better than last year. This left-side trio allowed the club to dump the lackluster bats of Tyler Nevin and Chris Owings – the cliched addition by subtraction bump. Now the O’s stand to gain about 20% offensively and 2-3 additional wins from these two positions.
Banking on the Veterans
They may be young but the Orioles’ outfielders have gelled quite nicely throughout the last couple seasons. Anchored by centerfielder Cedric Mullins, this top-ten group featured Anthony Santander’s best season to date and another solid campaign from Austin Hays. Even though Mullins’ power numbers were considerably more modest compared to his 2021 breakout, a second straight year of 30+ stolen bases and improved defense in center supports 3+ WAR again. Between Santander being a legitimate 30+ home run threat and Hays providing a plus bat and glove, Baltimore’s outfield looks to be on track to be just as good – especially with Kyle Stowers working his way into corner outfield duties in addition to DH work.
First base is in decent hands with Ryan Mountcastle after the beloved Trey Mancini handed over the reins. A Mountcastle power rebound would add another win to the mix, otherwise, the infield looks to maintain good position from 2022. Adam Frazier is a one-year stopgap at second base after he shrunk back to a more ordinary skillset. Still, his average-ish bat is an improvement over last year’s position group that featured Rougned Odor and Chris Owings. It’s a boring evaluation but status quo offensively and in the field is where I’m at with Baltimore’s position players. Terrin Vavra is in a good spot to develop further in a versatile backup role and Colton Cowser could earn his way onto the roster at some point this year. Upside across the board? You bet, just don’t forget that the O’s offense exceeded even the most optimistic expectations last season.
— Rotation —
Speaking of new blood, the Orioles’ rotation received some this offseason after losing workhorse Jordan Lyles. Baltimore got a lot out of the journeyman – 32 starts, 179.0 innings, and a serviceable 4.40 FIP/4.39 xFIP – especially considering that the next highest innings total was Dean Kremer’s 120.0. The likes of Austin Voth, Spenser Watkins, Tyler Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann teamed up for 73 starts at 4.68 innings/start. Manager Brandon Hyde needs deeper starts out of his rotation to spare the bullpen from another overloaded campaign. So the front office responded by signing veteran righty Kyle Gibson and trading for Cole Irvin.
Pulling in Irvin from Oakland makes sense with John Means still recovering from Tommy John surgery last April. Ben Clemens made good points about Irvin’s command-first approach fitting the Orioles’ starting pitcher mold, especially with the new configuration of their ballpark. It’s not quite Oakland’s spacious Coliseum but a left-hander like Irvin still benefits from Oriole Park where righties have been stifled by the deeper left field fence. Cole’s mid-4.00 xFIPs in the last two full-time seasons as a starter seems to be the target range for 2023. Most importantly, the 29-year-old clocked 30+ starts and 178.1+ innings in his last couple seasons with Oakland.
Leading a Maturing Rotation
Think of Kyle Gibson as a veteran replacement for Jordan Lyles, both of whom are wide-arsenal put it in play kind of pitchers. At this point we know that Gibson is a 1-2 WAR middle-rotation guy with low-4.00 FIP skills. That’s not terrible, though it’s not quite what a team looking to break into postseason contention needs on top of their rotation. Kyle Gibson will give you 30 starts and 5+ innings/start though. And that’s what this Orioles developing starting pitching group needs to alleviate some pressure off of their young guns.
There’s no shortage of lightly-seasoned pitching talent on this roster. Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer are on similar paths after combining for 44 starts in 2022. They’re both low-4.00s FIP contact pitchers with broad repertoires and expectations to stretch into a couple more starts and combined 2-3 WAR like last year. Although 2017 first round pick DL Hall’s availability will be delayed by a minor injury, Baltimore’s 2018 first-rounder Grayson Rodriguez is on track to start the season in the rotation. Impressive work at AAA Norfolk (4.62 K/BB ratio, 2.04 FIP/2.90 xFIP) provides enough confidence to slot the 23-year-old as their Opening Day #5 starter. Consensus has Grayson delivering 20+ starts at a sub-4.00 FIP level – not bad for a rookie. There’s a lot to like about the future of the O’s pitching staff, though their growing pains should keep this maturing rotation in the bottom-third once again.
— Bullpen —
Baltimore leaned on their bullpen heavily for the eighth-most innings in the majors with good success. I was concerned about overuse watering down this group going into the 2022 season. Instead, workhorses Dillon Tate and former starter Keegin Akin ate 155.1 innings with mid-3.00s ground ball contact effectiveness. High-leverage relievers Jorge Lopez and Felix Bautista thrived in the first half to the point where the front office flipped Lopez to Minnesota for four pitching prospects. Unfortunately, the complexion changed after the trade deadline and the bullpen limped its way to the season end.
BAL Bullpen Performance, by Period
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar. – July | 416.2 | 3.05 | 3.57 | 3.70 | 3.5 |
| Aug. – Sept. | 214.1 | 4.37 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 1.3 |
Former closer Jorge Lopez was not immune to this phenomenon even after leaving Baltimore, mustering a 4.35 FIP/4.95 xFIP over 22.2 innings with the Twins. In his stead, Felix Bautista nailed down 12 saves and maintained a solid sub-3.00 FIP. It appears Bautista will miss Opening Day rehabbing from a minor left knee injury though. Otherwise, there’s a lot to like with Felix holding down the back end again this year. He’ll be supported by Mychal Givens, Cionel Perez, and Dillon Tate once he is activated from the IL sometime in May. Whether Givens and Perez can maintain a reasonable level of command throughout the season is a big question that affects this group’s performance. Early-season injuries aside, this group should scratch their way to a respectable, but subpar campaign – though nothing quite like their surprising 2022 effort.
Boston Red Sox 2023 Win Total: Open 76.5, Now 77.5
2022 Result: Under 84.5 (78-84 / Pythag: 76)
2022 was one of those when the wheels fall off type of seasons for the Red Sox. Offense at a five-year low on top of an underperforming pitching staff led to Boston’s first non-COVID losing season since 2015. And to make matters worse, the Sox were the only team to cross the luxury tax threshold and miss the postseason last year. It didn’t help that Boston had the most payroll tied up on the IL by nearly $20M! Then they lose another foundational player in Xander Bogaerts to free agency along with a handful of pitchers. This proud franchise may be down, but are they out in 2023?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- R. Bleier (LHP – RP)
- A. Mondesi (SS)
- A. Duvall (OF)
- C. Kluber (RHP – SP)
- J. Turner (3B)
- M. Yoshida (OF)
- K. Jansen (RHP – RP)
- J. Rodriguez (LHP – RP)
- C. Martin (RHP – RP)
Subtractions:
- M. Barnes (RHP – RP)
- J. Taylor (LHP – RP)
- X. Bogaerts (SS)
- JD Martinez (DH)
- N. Eovaldi (RHP – SP)
- M. Wacha (RHP – SP)
- R. Hill (LHP – SP)
- M. Strahm (LHP – RP)
- F. Cordero (OF)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 84 – 85
— Rotation —
One word comes to mind for the Red Sox rotation: disappointing. Sure, I saw some dropoff coming after their top ten 2021 season. Losing nearly half of its value, however, was a surprise to many of us. The phenomenon started at the top with Nathan Eovaldi who led the charge a couple seasons ago but struggled with shoulder issues and gave up a lot of hard contact. Not much in his arsenal clicked and he finished the year with only 20 starts. Plus Chris Sale’s bicycle injury derailed any hope of a comeback for the accomplished veteran, leaving the immortal Rich Hill to lead the group with a team-high 1.8 WAR.
So there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Sale is on track to lead this year’s rotation, though the jury is out on his durability after failing to top 170 innings since 2017. I see consensus for 2-3 WAR and mid-3.00s FIP from the lefty – a step in the right direction. Nick Pivetta, on the other hand, gives the Red Sox more dependability at the cost of mediocrity. The 30-year-old racked up 30+ starts in both seasons in Boston but showed a bit of an ugly side with less strikeouts and more hard contact last year. With Sale offering more upside than the departed Rich Hill and Pivetta essentially replacing his own production, things aren’t looking too terrible so far.
Piecing Things Together
Letting Michael Wacha walk looks a little better now that Chaim Bloom signed the reinvented Corey Kluber to a short-term deal. The 37-year-old seems to have turned his career around after multiple injury setbacks. While Wacha’s 4.14 FIP/3.99 xFIP stopover in Boston was good enough for 1.5 WAR, Kluber’s upside hinges on an additional 20-30 innings with similar effectiveness. The longtime Cleveland starter successfully rebooted himself in Tampa Bay with a wily veteran approach of keeping hitters off balance via a broad arsenal of pitches. I’m on board with expecting about a 1/2-WAR upgrade over Wacha, bringing the value of the Sale-Pivetta-Kluber trio to less than 3 wins short of the entire 2022 rotation.
Things get muddier from there with a nebulous mix of pitchers filling the 80-ish start gap. James Paxton should account for 20 of them, though relying on the big left-hander requires a healthy amount of faith in his rehab. Conservative estimates around the 4.00 FIP mark make sense but meeting a 1.5-WAR target is more about staying healthy than anything. And the Garrett Whitlock saga continues in 2023…is he best suited as a starter or a reliever? Probably both, again. He and 23-year-old Brayan Bello are primed to team up for 30-40 starts after last year’s mid-3.00s work in the rotation. Grinding out an additional 3+ wins of value hinges on productive spot starts from swingmen like Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck as well as the main rotation pieces beating their baseline numbers.
— Bullpen —
Much like the rotation, Boston’s bullpen left a lot to be desired. Sure, relief pitching becomes less critical when aspirations for a playoff berth go out the window. Plus the cascading effects of an ineffective rotation weighed heavily on this group. Even though the Red Sox’ odds to make the postseason aren’t a whole lot better in 2023, the front office bolstered the bullpen with veteran relievers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. Peak Jansen is long gone and Martin’s eye-popping 2.18 FIP/2.01 xFIP stayed in L.A. Still, we’re talking about a couple of experienced high-leverage workhorses with a combined valuation greater than last year’s bullpen as a whole. Recalibrate John Schreiber’s outstanding 1.7-WAR breakout into the 0.5-1.0 WAR bracket and now you’ve amassed enough options for a solid foundation of relievers alongside Tanner Houck. Things are starting to look more sturdy as opposed to top-heavy and thin.
Southpaw Shell Game
Without true top-tier relievers that care very little about which side of the box opposing batters are in, a well-rounded bullpen needs a couple lefties to stay afloat. This winter’s lefty-righty swap of Matt Barnes for Miami’s Richard Bleier helped break up a nearly-exclusive right-hander club. Bleier joins free agent Joely Rodriguez as the two main southpaw options in Alex Cora’s relief unit. And both have wide gaps in their lefty-righty splits. These are important additions, especially after lefty Jake Diekman’s disastrous tenure in Boston and losing Matt Strahm in free agency.
This is by no means an elite unit. But for a team with aspirations to get back above the .500 mark, it could be much worse. And there will inevitably be dead weight in the bullpen like Hansel Robles, Tyler Danish, and Jake Diekman last season. Still, I like how the club beefed up the reliever corps and roped in a couple lefty specialists while working their way back to respectability. There’s plenty of room to gain a couple more wins from the bullpen this season.
— Position Players —
The toughest part to reconcile with the Red Sox is losing key cogs from the position player corps. Departures by Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez are one thing, and now the Trevor Story elbow surgery issue could loom just as large. The 2022 offense underperformed my exception for a couple-percent dropoff and now faces more uncertainty in the middle infield without Bogaerts and Story – with the latter likely to miss the majority of 2023. As our loyal readers are used to me saying in these previews, the 30-year-old shortstop would be hard pressed to run back his phenomenal 6.1-WAR season. Regardless, losing 6 wins at a premium position is no joke.
Trevor Story’s “modified Tommy John surgery” thinned out the Red Sox’ infield options to the point where they shipped reliever Josh Taylor to Kansas City for Adalberto Mondesi. Yes, the same Adalberto Mondesi who has cracked the 300-PA mark only once in his career. The 27-year-old should be a suitable defensive replacement at second base – knees permitting – though he represents a 10-20% offensive dropoff from Story’s 2022 numbers. Mondesi starting the season on the IL certainly underlines this concern. Thrusting Enrique Hernandez into a regular shortstop role is uncharted territory for Boston’s Swiss Army Knife. I can rationalize Kike replacing Xander’s defensive attributes but the Sox are looking at a steep departure from Bogaerts at the plate.
Coping With More Losses
A changing of the guard in the DH spot has a little making lemonade out of lemons vibe to it. The Red Sox said goodbye to JD Martinez after five big years in Beantown, instead signing Justin Turner from the Dodgers in a de facto swap between the two clubs. It’s wild to think that Martinez left on a low note after posting a 119 wRC+ and .274/.341/.448 slash line – his lowest non-COVID season numbers since 2013. Turner comes into town having begun a transition into more of a designated hitter type after spending just a little over half of last season at his native third base position. His 2022 offensive numbers of .278/.350/.438 and 123 wRC+ are eerily similar to JD’s. Plus Turner could conceivably spell the bat-first Rafael Devers at third base in a pinch.
Although the Red Sox have been without longtime catcher Christian Vazquez since trading him to Houston last summer, you cannot overlook any lingering effects on this season. Vazquez is a phenomenal presence behind the plate with solid framing skills. And to make matters worse, Christian’s 110 wRC+ during the Boston portion of 2022 set a higher bar than usual when it comes to replacing him. Reese McGuire is a reasonable substitute with some combination of up-and-comer Connor Wong and veteran Jorge Alfaro behind him. One bright spot in the Vazquez trade is receiving 24-year-old second base prospect Enmanuel Valdez, who could play a role in the middle infield puzzle as the season goes on.
Plug and Play
Japanese import Masataka Yoshida helps plug one outfield hole resulting from all of the winter comings and goings. His arm and fielding skills may be lacking but the 29-year-old is a hitting machine. It says something that .335 is the lowest batting average posted by the 4x NPB All-Star over the last three seasons. Prior to Opening Day, however, the signing is widely judged as a significant overpay. My role as a handicapper doesn’t care all that much about contract value, CBT implications, or the general welfare of the Red Sox’ faithful. When it comes to on-field impacts, Yoshida’s 2022 .335/.447/.561 line speaks to insane contact skills and plate discipline. His MLB expectations are tempered yet still impressively situated in the .300/.370/.470 range, yielding 3+ WAR. Compare that to last year’s left field group that combined for .267/.319/.397 and 0.9 WAR.
Yoshida won’t be the only new face in the Fenway Park grass. Former Reds and Braves outfielder Adam Duvall gets a fresh start in Boston after wrist surgery cut last season short. If Hernandez is tapped for shortstop duties while Trevor Story is on the IL, Duvall is likely to be the primary center fielder. Naturally, projections for the 34-year-old are all over the place. The hard-hitting, high-K hitter took to this key position fairly well later in his career but it’s debatable whether his power numbers will return to prime form. Much like the left field situation, Duvall’s floor is no worse than what the Sox’ center field group mustered offensively last year.
Where’s the Doom and Gloom?
I see optimism for increased production from outfielder Alex Verdugo. Plus Rob Refsnyder’s extreme splits bode well as a platoon bat for Yoshida and outfield depth in general. Despite the losses from Boston’s roster, I really don’t see much falloff from their offense – if anything, less disparity in their splits with a balanced lineup. Part of this phenomenon is owed to Triston Casas’ increased role at first base. His rookie debut was brief but the bar for the position is super low compared to 2022. The likes of Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec earned the Red Sox’ first base contingent the fourth-lowest wRC+ (85) and -0.6 WAR. Unless Casas is truly miserable in year two, he and Dalbec figure to be a potent +20%-ish hitting platoon at first base.
The turnover of Boston’s position players dating back to the 2022 trade deadline presents a high degree of uncertainty when evaluating year-over-year impacts. Trevor Story’s injury alongs with the health-related concerns of Adam Duvall and Adalberto Mondesi could stress the roster even further. But there’s been enough positives infused into the roster to keep the bottom from falling out. Count on another defensive season around neutral to go with their slightly-plus offense. It’s a departure from the Red Sox’ recent glory days but could be much worse.
WAGER: Red Sox Over 76.5 Wins (BetRiv 2/1)
Less games played in the tough AL East does not hurt a bottom half club like Boston. The Yankees’ stability as a mid-90’s win team and Tampa Bay’s position around 90 wins do not leave a lot of room for growth below them, especially with the Blue Jays hanging around with a ton of variance. After the dust settles on the 2023 season, Boston’s ability to tack on a few more wins over their disappointing 2022 campaign hinges on a more substantial pitching staff in the face of a revamped lineup.
2023 AL East Projected Standings
- New York Yankees (97-65)
- Toronto Blue Jays (96-67)
- Tampa Bay Rays (89-73)
- Boston Red Sox (84-78)
- Baltimore Orioles (76-86)
Just Weeks Away!
That puts two AL (Central and East) and two NL (Central and West) previews in the books. I’m getting antsy to wrap up the final two and nail down my ratings for Opening Day – after all, the season starts in a few weeks! Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications:
