There was certainly something about the East divisions last year as the American League and National League versions each sent three representatives to the playoffs. Yet it was the NL side’s representative that had enough left in tank to reach the sport’s biggest stage. Even though Philadelphia fell just short, this gritty team willed their way past stiff competition to challenge the best team in the MLB to six games in the World Series. Pretty amazing, considering this 87-win team outlasted two intra-division foes that ended the regular season with 101 wins. As for the Miami and Washington end of things, well, it was drastically different to say the least. All things considered, it’s safe to say that the NL East will return as one of the toughest divisions in 2023.

This is one in a series of six Divisional Previews & Futures outlooks for the 2023 MLB season – the 4th Annual Edition at BetCrushers.com. It’s an incremental process from season to season full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2022 NL Pennant Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

2022 Division Champion: Atlanta Braves

2022 NL East Standings

1. Atlanta Braves (101-61)
2. New York Mets (101-61)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
4. Miami Marlins (69-93)
5. Washington Nationals (55-107)

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Atlanta Braves 2023 Win Total: Open 94.5

2022 Result: Over 90.5 (101-61 / Pythag: 100)

The fact that Atlanta had two Rookie of the Year finalists in Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider should put the rest of the NL East on notice for years to come. The Braves’ twenty-something core that led the charge into the postseason is alive and well in 2023. Healthy versions of Ronald Acuna, Jr., Ozzie Albies, and (hopefully) Mike Soroka should keep this ship pointed in the right direction for another crack at the World Series crown. You could even argue that only injuries can keep this club from being the favorite to win the National League pennant with so much stability and talent on the roster.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• L. Luetge (LHP – RP)
• S. Murphy (C)
• J. Jimenez (RHP – RP)
• J. Luplow (OF)
• S. Hilliard (OF)
• K. Allard (LHP)

Subtractions:

• W. Contreras (C)
• K. Muller (LHP – SP)
• J. Odorizzi (RHP – SP)
• K. Jansen (RHP – RP)
• D. Swanson (SS)
• A. Duvall (OF)
• D. O’Day (RHP – RP)
• R. Grossman (OF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 92 – 99

— Position Players —

As you would expect from a 101-win team, the offense was one of the best in the majors. Rankings like third-most runs (789), highest ISO (.190), highest slugging percentage (.443), and second-most home runs (243) paint a pretty good picture of their success. And all of this came with Ronald Acuna, Jr. and NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II being on the 26-man roster for only three-quarters of the season. Somehow it wasn’t enough to escape the fury of the postseason’s hottest team, NL East foe Philadelphia. That hangover persisted into free agency as Atlanta lost key cog shortstop Dansby Swanson to the Cubs.

Swanson’s career season was the perfect blend of offense and Gold Glove Award-winning defense at shortstop. Although neither aspect of his game was tops in the National League for the position, the big numbers – 25 homers, 99 runs, 96 RBI – combined with 162-games and 696 plate appearances for 6.4 WAR. In fact, Swanson missed just 2 games over the last three regular seasons. Those are big shoes to fill by 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom who cut his big-league teeth at second base down the stretch. He’ll have help again from veteran middle infielder Orlando Arcia but the difference from Swanson’s 2022 should be around 3 wins of value. I’m penciling in a 20% drop at the plate and some defensive falloff.

Maintaining High Expectations

Position player durability wasn’t just a Dansby Swanson thing. First baseman Matt Olson played in 162 games with 699 PA; third baseman Austin Riley logged 159 games with 693 PA. Talk about having multiple key players in action for essentially the entire season! And the outlook for 2023 looks like more of the same for Atlanta’s corner infielders. The reliability of both Olson and Riley was right up there with Dansby since the shortened 2020 season. So there’s precedence for the 20-somethings to contribute 300+ games again barring significant injury. This pair of plus-25-to-40% bats could tack on another half or full win of value over last year’s 8.6 WAR.

NL RoY Michael Harris II set a very high bar that might be tough to reach this season. Slashing .297/.339/.514 required both a 45.1% hard hit rate and a bit of fortune via a .361 BABIP. The latter is less of an issue due to him being a high-BABIP hitter by nature even with enough doubt that he gets back to .500+ SLG. This is another prime example of greater playing time helping to balance out regression. I look at the Harris situation as a small loss that gets absorbed by any Olson-Riley gains. Plus the young phenom should pull his weight in keeping the Braves’ defense respectable.

Another extraordinary area of the Atlanta roster was the catcher position. William Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud punched above their weight class offensively – enough to where they rated as one of the best backstop units in the MLB. In a roundabout fashion, Atlanta swapped Contreras for Oakland’s standout catcher Sean Murphy this winter. The 28-year-old right-handed hitter offers much better framing and a more balanced bat compared to Contreras, making him a shoe-in to be a regular lineup fixture via the DH slot. I’m not completely sold on d’Arnaud’s sudden defensive spike though. Let’s call this whole area a wash for 2023. From a long term perspective, Murphy’s six-year deal is a net positive.

Questions Needing Answers

What if Ronald Acuna, Jr.’s dip in power may not be just an injury recovery issue? Even if there is a longer-term force at play, his 49.7% hard hit rate points towards a rebound somewhere between the prime-hitting 2020 & 2021 seasons and the down 2022. More Acuna and less Sam Hilliard or Jordan Luplow means an extra 2-3 wins in right field. That’s much better than the deficiencies found across the outfield where Eddie Rosario rode the struggle bus in left field. It was a rock bottom season for the former Twin though manager Brian Snitker likes what he sees this spring. Less time on the IL plus a 15-20% bump with the bat should help the cause and take the edge off of Atlanta’s shaky outfield depth.

How much of a dropoff will there actually be at the shortstop position? Are Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario in for strong enough bouncebacks to make a difference? What is Ozzie Albies’ health outlook after missing the majority of the 2022 season with a broken foot and pinky? The young second baseman is allegedly good to go, so there’s solid gains to be captured in that lineup slot. In retrospect, it wasn’t as if the Braves suffered an extraordinary amount of injuries last season – the bug just happened to target two of their most dynamic players. Sustained success with this offense relies heavily on five or six key contributors staying on the field for 80%+ of the season – the reason while I will slightly downgrade this potent lineup for the year ahead.

— Rotation —

The lineup certainly wasn’t the only high point for the Braves. Their pitching staff as a whole put together one of the best seasons in 10+ years. Starting pitching graded out with the seventh-highest WAR (15.1) behind the seventh-most innings pitched (890.1). The scheme of three workhorses and a RoY candidate panned out quite well! The 24-year-old right-hander stole the show upon being promoted to the rotation in late May, posting a 10-4 record with a 1.92 FIP/2.20 xFIP in his first 20 MLB starts. Highlights include fourteen 5+ inning outings, six 10+ strikeout games – including an Atlanta Braves franchise record 16 Ks – and eleven starts with 3 hits or fewer. That’s some high-level stuff right there.

As always, the challenge for a young player following up on a true breakout season is maintaining high expectations in the year ahead. Strider’s .292 BABIP, 40.3% ground balls, 36.0% hard hit rate, and 8.5% walks don’t raise any glaring issues that call for steep regression. The kid deals gas with the four-seamer and presents a filthy change of pace slider. However, two-pitch starters are few and far between in the MLB. Carlos Rodon is just about the only comparison at this time and his body of work continues to impress. Assuming Spencer stretches out close to 30 starts and stays in the area of 5.4 inning/start area, an adjustment to high-2.00s FIP should not cost more than 1 WAR. This kid is going to be a good one to watch as he matures over the next few seasons!

Strength in Continuity

One key reason behind my flat year-over-year expectation for the 2023 rotation is Atlanta’s approach of running back the same crew. Max Fried, Kyle Wright, and Charlie Morton each delivered 30+ starts and 172+ innings last season, anchoring a rock solid unit that can afford to have some uncertainty with the #5 slot. Where Max Fried may lose one win of value after his career season, 39-year-old Charlie Morton has room to pick up that slack after experiencing an unfortunate home run ratio. If the veteran still has his trusty Uncle Charlie rolling, look for his broad arsenal to get closer to 2022’s 3.60 xFIP rather than the 4.26 FIP.

Approaching Kyle Wright’s breakout season with caution also makes sense. After topping out at 38.0 innings in 2020, Wright put it all together with a super dependable 30-start campaign boasting a 3.58 FIP/3.30 xFIP fueled by ground ball contact and a well-controlled four-pitch repertoire. I’ll just assume that Charlie Morton is proud to see guys like Kyle and Max dealing quality curve balls under his tutelage. Maybe Wright sheds part of a win if he cannot sustain that 55.6% ground ball rate.

The Braves start the season well ahead of many other clubs when it comes to confidently having four rotation slots locked down. Ian Anderson did well as their primary #5 starter even if the writing is on the wall about his ceiling. Too many walks for a contact pitcher is a negative but nothing too detrimental for that role. With 24-year-old Huascar Ynoa on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery, Atlanta will turn to 2019 star Mike Soroka for 10+ starts at some point this summer. He’s another ground baller alongside rookie Bryce Elder – both of whom are ballparked around the 4.00 FIP mark as the next men up. There’s plenty to like with this top ten group once again.

— Bullpen —

I expected improvement from one of the league’s better bullpens in 2022, just not quite the top-tier status they realized. When you find yourself up there with the Astros and Dodgers you know things went right. Ironically, former Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen was a big part of the Braves’ success. The veteran reliever racked up 41 saves en route to a decent 1.1 WAR. This year, trade deadline acquisition Raisel Iglesias assumes the role with Jansen in Boston – and his expectations are fairly high after another sub-3.00 FIP season in Anaheim and Atlanta. It’s safe to call this an even swap heading into Opening Day despite Igelsias’ declining strikeout and ground ball rates.

Proven depth is typically a key element of any elite bullpen’s success. Atlanta certainly has that, ranging from lefty killer AJ Minter to revitalized reliever Collin McHugh. Losing Tyler Matzek to Tommy John surgery and Will Smith in free agency is tough unless you’re looking purely at year-over-year change – these two had rough goings in 2022. Adding former Tiger righty reliever Joe Jimenez as a high-leverage support piece provides oomph at the cost of volatility. The ups and downs of Jimenez’ career makes it tough to pin the big fella down, though his recent velocity bump points closer to 2022’s 3.49 ERA than it does the 5.00+ FIPs of the previous two.

Full House

A pair of new faces that received attention in the Atlanta bullpen could return as productive pieces in their prove it again seasons. Left-hander Dylan Lee held lefty hitters to a .158 average while right-hander Jackson Stevens re-emerged from independent ball with a manageable ground ball contact game plan. Lee should have the most utility with swing-and-miss stuff that produced sharp 29.4% strikeout and 5.0% walk rates. Stevens, on the other hand, can make his mark in Jesse Chavez’ role unless the 39-year-old makes the team out of camp. Sub-4.00 FIP Lucas Luetge and Kirby Yates are suitable middle relief pieces – assuming Kirby is healthy – that can be replaced fairly easily. Likely reinforcements include Mike Soroka in his ramp-up efforts back to the rotation, bounceback contender Nick Anderson, or via minor trade.

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New York Mets 2023 Win Total: Open 96, Now 95

2022 Result: Over 90.5 (101-61 / Pythag: 99)

2022 looked to be the year for the New York Mets. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Diaz…the list goes on and on when it comes to impact players on a roster without many holes. Regardless of them losing the NL East tiebreaker to the Braves, 101 wins in a heavyweight division is nothing to sneeze at. Then came the Wild Card round and poof – it was all over at the hands of the San Diego Padres. Soon thereafter the reality of free agency set in, resulting in several heavy hitters declaring free agency. Not to be deterred, Stephen Cohen dug deep into his pockets and made some big moves.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• O. Narvaez (C)
• K. Senga (RHP – SP)
• B. Raley (LHP – RP)
• D. Robertson (RHP – RP)
• J. Quintana (LHP – SP)
• J. Verlander (RHP – SP)
• E. Hernandez (RHP)

Subtractions:

• J. deGrom (RHP – SP
• C. Bassitt (RHP – SP)
• T. Walker (RHP – SP)
• J. Rodriguez (LHP – RP)
• T. Williams (RHP)
• T. Naquin (OF)
• S. Lugo (RHP – RP)
• M. Givens (RHP – RP)
• T. May (RHP – RP)
• D. Smith (1B/OF)
• C. Shreve (LHP – RP)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 91 – 99

— Rotation —

The phrase win some, lose some rings true with the Mets’ starting pitching scene this offseason. Substantial subtractions include Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker via free agency. deGrom’s loss is tempered by mixed emotions in the sense that the lifelong Met had developed into a premier ace with unhittable stuff, pushing the limits of durability. His 26 starts over the past two seasons came amidst significant IL stints, leaving an interesting void in the 2023 rotation. Bassitt and Walker, on the other hand, exhibited less spectacular stuff while being quite dependable. The duo’s sub-4.00 FIP production across a combined 59 starts and 339.0 IP leaves wider holes to fill.

NYM Starting Pitchers w/ 10+ Starts, 2022

Pitcher	Starts	IP	FIP
C. Bassitt*	30	181.2	3.66
T. Walker*	29	157.1	3.65
C. Carrasco	29	152.0	3.53
M. Scherzer	23	145.1	2.62
D. Peterson	19	91.0	3.42
J. deGrom*	11	64.1	2.13

When three-fifths of your rotation walks out the door in free agency, you can simply fill the gaps or you can test the limits of the checkbook. With a loaded owner who wants to win now, the latter is the only option. Signing reigning AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander, veteran lefty Jose Quintana, and NPB import Kodai Senga sent a loud shot across the National League’s bow.

Of course it’s not as easy as plug-and-play as all three incoming starters come with underlying risk for a variety of reasons. Verlander is 40 years old, Quintana posted his first full season as a starter since 2019, and Senga presents translation questions coming over from the NPB. Not language, skills and metrics. The 29-year-old was a hard-throwing strikeout machine as he matured throughout his 11-year career in Japan. We don’t have a direct way to bridge NPB experience to the MLB, though Senga’s fastball velocity and plus splitter are appealing despite concerns with his fastball shape and breaking ball effectiveness.

Is It Enough?

Justin Verlander defied the odds last season after a second Tommy John surgery. Fortunately, 175.0 innings did not stretch his limits by any means. Jose Quintana going from an afterthought in 2020 and 2021 to a coveted trade deadline piece is likely a testament to his ability to recover physically. Don’t get me wrong, the days of 200+ innings are long gone but another 150+ campaign is a fair expectation. With the potential to replace 403.1 IP from the outgoing trio with 475+, the key consideration shifts to quality vs. quantity. Lowering expectations for these two is a reasonable adjustment. JV’s .240 BABIP begs for regression closer to a low-3.00s FIP while Quintana’s sharply-depressed 5.3% HR/FB rate puts him in the upper 3.00s. That’s not hateful considering what Bassitt and Walker left behind.

Carryovers Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco slot in quite nicely too. A little less quality and more quantity from 38-year-old Mad Max isn’t hateful and another 150+ IP campaign out of Cookie rounds out what should again be a top-five rotation. The likes of David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and Joey Lucchesi are MLB-tested depth in AAA while the Mets’ dice roll on former Marlin Elieser Hernandez could bear fruit. Elieser is expected to play the role of swingman after struggling to keep the ball in the park, so a short leash is likely in his future. Not sure the 27-year-old has the stuff to be a regular MLB starting pitcher but the front office sees something in last year’s hard contact drop and new cutter. Conservatively speaking, the rotation reboot gets the Mets rotation exceptionally close to its 2022 level.

— Bullpen —

Despite my expectation for a small tail-off from of the Mets relief unit, this group was firmly better. A benefactor of a rotation that ate a lot of innings, New York’s bullpen hung the 7th-lowest FIP (3.56) and league-best K-BB% (19.2%). Closer Edwin Diaz’ rendition of a phoenix rising from the ashes resulted in a 32-save season with a 1.31 ERA and 0.90 FIP/1.04 xFIP. Sure, it wasn’t quite the 57-save bonanza of 2018 that earned him a fat contract with the Mets, but the dude’s 50.2 K% and 24.6% swinging strike rate attest to the ol’ eye test’s conclusion that Edwin is downright unhittable.

The good news for 2023: Diaz is back after signing a new five-year deal. The bad news: Most of his supporting cast left in free agency. Losing significant contributors Trevor Williams (51.0 IP), lefty Joely Rodriguez (50.1 IP), and Seth Lugo (65.0 IP) takes a big bite out of the bullpen’s apple. Will this lack of continuity hold this group back in 2023? Much like they did with the rotation, the front office wasted no time in reloading.

Incoming Relievers of Note

• David Robertson (RHP): The 38-year-old returned with a vengeance last season in 58 appearances. Walks were an issue for him but mid-3.00s FIP performance will get the job done if his durability persists.
• Brooks Raley (LHP): The veteran has been dependable since returning from the KBO in 2020, delivering low-3.00s results via a healthy four-pitch repertoire.
• Elieser Hernandez (RHP): Somewhat of a reclamation project after last season’s tailspin, Hernandez’ ability to serve as a swingman adds flexibility to the pitching staff…if the 28-year-old can regain his secondary pitches’ effectiveness.

It’s tough to argue with strong projections for the Mets’ high-leverage half of the bullpen. Re-signing Adam Ottavino helps retain most of his 1.1 WAR, except the 37-year-old is not expected to replicate last season’s 2.06 ERA and 2.85 FIP/2.79 xFIP – his best numbers since 2018. Ottavino’s lost value can easily be reclaimed by Drew Smith’s reversion to last year’s 3.72 xFIP through more favorable home run luck. Depth in AAA, notably Bryce Montes de Oca and Zach Greene backs up question marks John Curtiss and Stephen Nogosek. This bullpen has stout back-end relievers and a variety of serviceable options in support to maintain their 2022 status.

— Position Players —

The Mets’ offensive “slump” of 2021 went by the wayside after their rejuvenated lineup popped by 20% last year. Francisco Lindor got his groove back while the new blood of Starling Marte and Mark Canha injected octane into the mix. This impressive group exceeded my expectations for improvement not just with their power numbers, but their ability to get on base and grind out runs truly fueled the fire. Six lineup regulars finished with OBPs greater than .339, as did platoon hitter Daniel Vogelbach and Utility Man Extraordinaire Luis Guillorme. That’s how you end up #5 on the MLB’s list for runs scored despite a mid-pack home run total.

As opposed to their pitching staff, the Metropolitans’ lineup had impressive continuity through the postseason. After re-signing coveted center fielder Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year, $162MM contract it became official: the Mets’ lineup is back and hungry for more. Losing part-time contributors JD Davis, Dominic Smith, and James McCann would be a tougher pill to swallow if it wasn’t for their collective mediocrity last year. McCann’s tenure in Queens was a letdown compared to his previous two seasons with the White Sox. His absence allows Omar Narvaez’ comparable defense and 25% offensive premium to boost this position group with support from defense-first backup Tomas Nido. Chalk up an additional 1-1.5 WAR from the catchers with a healthy Narvaez.

The Infield’s Rolling Boil

The infield boasts a ton of stability with its returning cast of characters. The starting cast has invaluable flexibility with Luis Guillorme’s suitable bat and fielding. Expect more of the same from him in support at second, third, and a little shortstop. Truthfully, the only reasonable way that first baseman Pete Alonso loses value from his 4.0-WAR 2022 season is through injury. Another plus-40% offensive campaign with 35+ home runs? You bet.

Where the Mets may be letdown a touch is with the middle infield pair of Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor. The former Guardians shortstop had a quietly good New York debut in 2021 then found that next gear again, producing 26 homers, 98 runs, and 107 RBI. Plus Lindor is an asset on the base paths by greasing the wheels of this productive lineup. Replicating 6.8 WAR could be tough after playing 161 games and 706 plate appearances though. McNeil also revisited the heights of his prolific 2019 season to deliver a whopping 5.9 WAR. Whether it was the .353 BABIP or 30.2% hard hit rate, there seems to be a consensus for the second baseman to drop 20% at the plate and a couple wins of value.

While I don’t expect third baseman Eduardo Escobar to be as poor in the field as last season, all signs are pointing towards a slightly-diminished role ahead. Top prospect Brett Baty will be nipping at this heels at some point. Asking a 23-year-old rookie to fire out of the gates can be foolish except the kid has the chops to get in there this summer and be a plus-10% bat. Think of him as the missing piece to a viable third base pairing that shouldn’t lose much value from 2022.

Keeping Up In the Outfield

There was no bigger offseason position player move for the Mets than re-signing centerfielder Brandon Nimmo for eight more years. After a career-high 151 games and 673 plate appearances, Cohen and his team found considerable value in paying up to keep him in town. Nothing stood out of the ordinary for Nimmo last year other than his usage numbers. Plate discipline, hard contact, and slash line metrics fell right in line with the five seasons prior. So any falloff from his 5.4 WAR is likely to be a function of less games in the lineup. Plus he helps keep the defense on the right side of neutral.

As for the previous offseason’s signings Mark Canha and Starling Marte, these 34-year-olds still have some gas in their tanks. Canha’s value as an on-base machine and Marte’s recent history as a high-average hitter still hold true in their second seasons with the club. Nimmo masks their typical corner outfielder shortcomings, though the assumption for a bit of offensive erosion from one or both veterans is understandable. So we’re realistically looking at the Mets’ starting outfield dropping 1-2 wins after a season in which they were the second-most productive and valuable group behind Aaron Judge’s Yankees. And Tommy Pham is fine as a veteran depth piece as opposed to Tyler Naquin or Travis Jankowski.

The designated hitter spot gets a platoon approach in the form of a couple hitters with highly-skewed splits. Darin Ruf’s days in San Francisco played right into his strong numbers against left-handed pitching – a role that he’ll embrace when paired up with boom-or-bust slugger Daniel Vogelbach. The big boy destroys righties and does so for a cheap $1.5 million. Small offensive fallbacks from both the infield and outfield are in store unless something really wacky happens. Maybe I’m just pessimistic after multiple players posted big seasons. Regardless, this is still one of the better lineups when you factor solid defense in with their accomplished bats.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Win Total: Open 88.5, Now 89.5

2022 Result: Over 85.5 (87-75 / Pythag: 87)

87 wins is quite good in a competitive NL East. But the Philly faithful – including our guy D Nice – don’t need to remember much about the 2022 regular season. Last year was all about the playoffs and the Phillies’ epic run. It goes without saying that delivering the World Series champs their only two losses of the postseason was one hell of an accomplishment in itself. Playoffs aside, though, the Phillies should be remembered for one of their better offensive season in years, another great season from the rotation, and an excellent bullpen. The defense…well, that’s still a thing that needs addressed. Turns out the approach of fighting fire with big bats worked out nicely for their freshly-extended President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski.

The Phillies have extended the contract of President of Baseball Operations David Dombrowski for three years, taking him through the 2027 season, Managing Partner John Middleton announced today. pic.twitter.com/8xms7gVOiT

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) November 22, 2022

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J. Harrison (INF)
• G. Soto (LHP – RP)
• K. Clemens (3B)
• C. Kimbrel (RHP – RP)
• M. Strahm (LHP – RP)
• T. Turner (SS)
• T. Walker (RHP – SP)

Subtractions:

• N. Maton (INF/OF)
• M. Vierling (OF)
• Z. Eflin (RHP)
• K. Gibson (RHP – SP)
• N. Syndergaard (RHP – SP)
• J. Segura (2B)
• D. Robertson (RHP – RP)
• O. Herrera (OF)
• J. Camargo (INF)
• B. Hand (RHP – RP)
• C. Knebel (RHP – RP)
• D. Gregorius (SS)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 81 – 90

— Position Players —

The formula of pairing proven hitters with young talent paid off in spades. Free agents Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos joined forces with Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto to form a strong nucleus. Then Dombrowski and his crew firmed it up even more at the trade deadline by moving lauded catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels for center fielder Brandon Marsh. Although Marsh didn’t revolutionize the outfield defense, he was far from a fielding liability who tacked on another 30% offensively over Odubel Herrera and Matt Vierling. Almost everything about Marsh improved after his cross-country voyage to the City of Brotherly Love.

Aside from the Phillies putting up their best numbers since the Charlie Manuel days, two significant storylines shook out in 2022. Joe Girardi’s firing after 51 games turned their 22-29 record into a wild card berth under Rob Thomson. Thomson’s leadership fueled a 65-46 run to close out the regular season in spite of Bryce Harper’s two-month absence due to a UCL tear – the same injury that led to offseason Tommy John surgery. As the heart and soul of the Philly lineup, Bryce’s absence could have sabotaged any hopes of making the postseason.

PHI Offense by Month, 2022

	Slash Line	wRC+	HR	SB
April	.244/.318/.400	100	21	12
May	.244/.305/.402	97	35	18
June	.252/.327/.445	116	43	20
July*	.254/.296/.414	96	32	12
August*	.275/.339/.442	119	33	24
Sept./Oct.	.249/.313/.424	104	41	19

Instead, his teammates rallied in August to deliver the offense’s strongest month of the season. Multiple Phillies cranked out their best hitting after the Harper-induced hangover in July. JT Realmuto surged to a 158 wRC+, Rhys Hoskins found his groove with a 133 wRC+, and Jean Segura was a .375 on-base machine. August was also time for Darick Hall’s coming out party. The left-handed rookie mashed 4 home runs in 45 at bats with a .302/.333/.628 line equating to 166 wRC+. His extreme splits could relegate him to a platoon designated hitter role though.

Oddly enough, the late season cooldown coincided with Bryce Harper’s rough return to action. His September/October .196/.288/.327 paled in comparison to a massive June (.359/.455/.641, 203 wRC+), as August’s heroes could not hold onto their scorching hot bats. But when you mash 6 home runs and slug .746 in the playoffs not too many people care about your cold September. That leads to one of the toughest parts about handicapping the Phillies’ 2023 season: Harper’s availability. So far, so good with the Tommy John rehab at least – even the Japan Times is on the story. Half of a season? Three-quarters? How many games your superstar plus-40% hitter will be in the lineup for is the key here.

Locking In the Outfield

Nobody foresaw Nick Castellanos’ massive struggles in his Philadelphia debut – not even the Reds front office. You can look the other way when a poor-fielding corner outfielder mashes 30+ home runs with an OBP over .350. But when that same player only hits 13 homers with his worst slugging (.389) in a decade, there’s a problem. The 31-year-old Castellanos has a 15% offensive bump in store according to several projections, and there are multiple reports of him working diligently through the winter with the coaching staff to iron out his swing. That should be enough to turn last year’s -0.7 WAR into 1+ in 2023.

His running mate across the outfield, Kyle Schwarber, provided equally bad defense but held up the hitting end of the bargain. The left fielder made up for his fielding woes in year one of a four-year contract by smashing 46 bombs with a 54.4% hard hit rate. That’s a staggering amount of hard contact over a career-high 669 plate appearances! Schwarber’s outlook is just as good, if not better after being handcuffed by a .240 BABIP.

In between these two sluggers is center fielder Brandon Marsh, the sneaky x-factor down the stretch last season. Could the Phillies’ work behind the scenes to quiet his swing mechanics be the root of a 35% offensive jump? He is only 25 years old with just over a full year of MLB experience after all. Are his short-run numbers in Philly (.288/.319/.455) deceptive compared to what he put up in L.A. (.226/.284/.353)? Possibly. I’m hesitant to dismiss his poor-hitting baggage, especially considering how Marsh brought a 30%+ strikeout rate to town. A light-hitting sub-.300 OBP will bury him in the lineup unless he can dramatically improve his plate discipline.

Stabilizing the Infield

This offseason’s splash signing came with a hefty price tag: $300 million over 11 years. It’s a small price to pay, however, for a contending team that has struggled to roster a multi-dimensional everyday shortstop. Trea brings solid defense at short to a Phillies squad that lost 13 runs at the position last year. That’s a big gain in itself, plus his presence slides Bryson Stott over to second base where he is much better suited. Now Stott can continue the neutral fielding at second that he and Jean Segura teamed up for in 2022. Shoring up the middle infield alone allows the Phillies to take another step closer to defensive respectability despite liabilities in three of their four corners without Harper.

At this point in his career, you can count on Turner’s base scenario to be around 20 home runs and a .290/.340/.475 slash line. That’s a 40-50% premium over Philly’s 2022 shortstop group. Reasonable projections put Bryson Stott’s second year in the MLB right around the second base corps’ production level. My guess is you’ll see 35-year-old super utility infielder Josh Harrison spell the left-handed Stott with acceptable production. Cumulatively, the Stott/Harrison pair still falls about 1 win short of Segura/Stott. But that easily gets washed away by a 3-WAR lift at shortstop with Trea Turner playing 150+ games.

The Sum of the Parts

The corners are locked up with Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins is in his final year of team control and figures to be in the plus-20% hitting, 2+ WAR ballpark again. He’s a boring guy to project as opposed to the younger Bohm. Zone ratings like Alec’s fielding better than runs saved – so there’s a challenge determining if he will contribute to the overall defensive improvement or not. Regardless, the 26-year-old third baseman has an upward trajectory at the plate that could net the Phillies one-half to a full win. The jury is still out on Darick Hall as a boom-or-bust lefty platoon designated hitter, though this lineup slot will be solved for the most part once Bryce Harper is cleared for live action.

Finally, we come to the top-three catching tandem of JT Realmuto and Garrett Stubbs. Realmuto put up career numbers across the board and was rewarded with a second Gold Glove and a third Silver Slugger awards. Unfortunately, 32-year-old catchers coming off of their highest marks usually get adjusted down a notch. JT is not immune from this but still gets credit as a plus-20% bat with superb defense. There’s much less confidence in Stubbs repeating his .264/.350/.462 line from 2022, though this matters a lot less if Realmuto continues to be a 120+ game ironman behind the plate. I can’t see this offense trending sharply to the downside, and there’s enough variability on both sides of the ledger to keep this offense in the same range as 2022. The downside lurking around the lineup is a big part of why my win total range is skewed in that direction.

— Rotation —

The Philly faithful are getting used to this quality starting pitching thing again. It may not be the Lee-Halladay-Hamels days but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are doing their best impressions. They paired up for 11.6 WAR in Wheeler’s 2021 Cy Young award bid season and 10.4 last year. What’s particularly impressive over this two-year span is how the rotation’s supporting cast has risen up around them. Not only did the starting pitcher corps gain 1 win of value from 2021 to 2022, the #3 and below pitchers gained another 9.9% of the rotation’s WAR share up to 40.6%.

Ranger Suarez is a big part of this phenomenon. Sure, last season’s 3.65 ERA wasn’t as shiny as his 1.51 ERA the year before that. Suarez instead tacked on another 17 starts and finished his first full season in the rotation with a respectable 3.87 FIP/3.82 xFIP. Now the realistic expectation is for the 27-year-old lefty to stay in the upper-3.00s while stretching out his depth of starts. More innings, more value. As for the duo above Ranger, another 10-WAR season is in store. I’m skeptical of Nola repeating 6.3 WAR – think Wheeler’s step back after a huge 2021 – but 200 innings at low-3.00s effectiveness has a ton of value. Wheeler is right there with him, forming a 1-2-3 punch in the 12-13 WAR range again.

When Three Just Won’t Do

The team’s second highest innings count last year came from Kyle Gibson, who headed down I-95 to Baltimore this offseason. Replacing the grizzled veteran is 30-year-old Taijuan Walker. The righty is in the midst of keeping his revived career alive after rough breaks in 2018 & 2019. Absorb Gibson’s workload and keep things around 4.00 FIP? Consensus projections seem to think so, with some variations trending towards the mid-4.00s. Call this an even swap with slight downside.

Is Bailey Falter the right man for the #5 job? With Andrew Painter’s unfortunate UCL sprain last week and little meaningful MLB-ready depth otherwise, Bailey better be ready to pull his weight. His first season spent primarily as a starting pitcher was generally positive, all things considered. Several key metrics were borderline; nothing too exceptional or terrible when it comes to strikeout rate (21.2%), ground balls (31.7%), hard contact (38.5%), etc. He is far from a flamethrower and did not show much with his secondaries. Expect a 2023 more like last year’s 4.13 xFIP and less like his 4.65 FIP. Can Bailey and much-anticipated 20-year-old prospect Andrew Painter absorb the 38 starts that Falter, Zach Eflin, and Noah Syndergaard combined for? Those missing 8-10 starts are a key reason why Philadelphia’s rotation could shed around 2 WAR from last year’s top-three unit.

— Bullpen —

Not only did the Philadelphia bullpen tack on enough firepower to exceed my league-average expectations, they became a top-third unit. That was a dramatic jump forward for a relief group that habitually let their team down in previous years. Having the MLB’s second-lowest workload helped their cause and in chalking up an efficient 70% save conversion rate. So what happens when you lose multiple pitchers that nailed down 24 of the team’s 42 saves? Promote from within and bring in some fresh blood.

Dave Dombrowski expressed the team’s gratitude for the rebound seasons from Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado in the form of two- and three-year extensions, respectively. These closer candidates cemented their roles as foundation pieces for the next several seasons with really good 2022 campaigns. Alvarado’s 10.8% jump in strikeout rate and lowest walk rate (11.2%) in quite a while combined with another 50%+ ground ball season for 1.7 WAR. He and Dominguez are prototypical hard-throwing relievers who give Rob Thomson a fantastic lefty-righty combo for the late innings. Even with conservative high-2.00s/low-3.00s FIPs this duo should be penciled in for 2 WAR.

But Wait, There’s More!

Philadelphia’s bullpen overhaul from the previous offseason brought in heavy-strikeout reliever Andrew Bellatti and swingman candidate Nick Nelson. Each racked up 1.0 WAR of their own, though are projected to take middle inning duties with the influx of two additional closer types this winter. Rack up enough half-win contributors like Bellatti, Nelson, and Connor Brogdon in support, and it becomes clearer how this group can duplicate their strong 2022.

Instead of resting on this recent bullpen success, the club said goodbye to several relievers and brought in some interesting characters. Out go Brad Hand and mid-season acquisition David Robertson who combined for 0.6 WAR. And so go less prolific relievers Jeurys Familia and Corey Knebel. Dombrowski backfilled the bullpen with seasoned closer Craig Kimbrel, former Tigers closer Gregory Soto, and left-hander Matt Strahm. While Strahm serves as bulk relief after a decent return from injury in Boston, the 34-year-old Kimbrel fits in with Dominguez and Alvarado as a two-pitch high-leverage arm. He’s another half-win contributor whose skillset is more in the upper-3.00s these days.

The true wild card of the bunch is Gregory Soto. The hard-throwing sinker/slider lefty was part of a five-player trade with Detroit that shipped off role players Matt Vierling and Nick Maton. One constant bugaboo in Soto’s MLB career continues to be walks. He’s a perennial 12%+ walk rate guy whose strikeout percentage dipped by close to 5% last season with a spike in hard contact. The mixed messages sent from the last two seasons of low-3.00s ERAs and mid-4.00s xFIPs make it truly difficult to project him for 2023. Improvement in the form of more strikeouts, less walks, or a combination of the two should put him in that half-win contributor tranche with the others. Otherwise it’s going to be a long summer for Soto. Thankfully, the Phillies have a well-stocked bullpen to weather his storm.

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Miami Marlins 2023 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 75.5

2022 Result: Under 76.5 (69-93 / Pythag: 70)

The Donnie Baseball era in South Florida has come to a close. Eight years at the helm of the Miami Marlins and not much to show for it spurred the 61-year-old baseball legend to hang it up. Lacking a ton of support from ownership to assemble a capable lineup probably made the decision much easier. In his stead, former big leaguer Skip Schumaker comes into a rotation-first environment headed up the unanimous NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. The arms shine bright in South Florida but Skip needs quite a bit of help from the bats if they want to catch the trio of NL East teams looming above.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• AJ Puk (LHP – RP)
• M. Barnes (RHP – RP)
• L. Arraez (INF)
• J. Cueto (RHP – SP)
• J. Segura (INF)
• E. Hernandez (RHP – SP/RP)
• J. Brigham (RHP – RP)
• JT Chargois (RHP – RP)

Subtractions:

• JJ Bleday (OF)
• R. Bleier (LHP – RP)
• P. Lopez (RHP – SP)
• M. Rojas (SS)
• B. Anderson (INF/OF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 76 – 78

— Rotation —

Get the man some help! Maybe that’s more for the “Position Players” section yet it’s still applicable when it comes to assembling a winning ball club around workhorse Sandy Alcantara. Not to mention capitalizing on his back-to-back 200+ inning seasons. Sandy’s 228.2 innings led the majors, giving him a distinct edge over all other starters as he continued to whittle down his walk rate (5.6%) and keep the ball on the ground. If you want to talk about effectiveness, consider that half of Alcantara’s 32 starts resulted in 1 or fewer earned runs and 22 starts went 7 innings or deeper including 5 complete games!

The way Sandy Alcantara achieves such immense success increases confidence behind another 200-inning expectation for 2023. Effortless velocity behind the 4- and 2-seamers is coupled with a deceptive changeup and plus slider. The sinker/changeup mix was especially on point, helping the 27-year-old stay in games longer and avoid exposing their suspect bullpen. Even with a bona fide workhorse ace profile, 2022’s 2.28 ERA and 2.99 FIP/3.29 xFIP point towards a 3.00+ FIP in the season ahead. That maths out to a drop of 1-2 WAR from last year’s tremendous 5.7.

Building On Sandy’s Foundation

Starting pitching is the near-term future of the franchise. It make Pablo Lopez expendable after staying healthy enough to deliver a career-best 180.0 innings over 32 starts. Miami’s sell high view of Pablo gained Luis Arraez from Minnesota in a pitching-for-hitting trade. One of my personal favorites, Johnny Cueto takes Lopez’ spot in a short-term play to buy time for a crop of young starters to develop into a prospect-studded 2024 rotation. In the meantime, they could use another 25-start, 150-inning season from Cueto at the ripe age of 37. The guy throws strikes but we’re realistically talking about mid-4.00s stuff compared to Pablo’s mid-3.00s. Barring another wildly-deceptive season from Johnny, there’s another 1-2 wins of falloff.

Then things get interesting with Miami’s lightly-seasoned lefties Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. Their trajectories crossed paths last year as Luzardo jumped from a rough 5.48 FIP/4.84 xFIP in 2021 to 3.12 FIP/3.11 xFIP. Sure, a BABIP drop from .322 to .253 accounts for some of his improvement though tightened command over his fastballs and changeups is something to hold onto. Regression to a mid-3.00s level should be balanced by greater workload.

So the emphasis shifts more towards a Trevor Rogers rebound after losing his edge in 2022. Nothing seemed to work for the 25-year-old from late May onward and his production value slumped from 4.2 WAR in 2021 to 0.8. Trevor’s 2021 breakout campaign featured a 3.41 K/BB ratio combined with good 40.1% ground ball, 36.3% hard hit, and 14.0% swinging strike rates. Then he added 3 more runs to ERA and 2 more to FIP, squashing a lot of hopes for the third-year MLB starter. But there’s good news. Conservative estimates call for a sub-4.00 FIP season with potential for Luzardo and Rogers to stabilize and net an additional win.

Rounding Up the Young Bucks

The club has several other up-and-coming starters under team control for several seasons in addition to southpaws Luzardo and Rogers. Unfortunately, two of those arms are recovering from injuries: Max Meyer’s August Tommy John surgery and Sixto Sanchez’ October shoulder surgery. Those are tough blows in the short term. As for the future, it looks brighter with a handful of talented pitchers on the move.

• Edward Cabrera is a leading candidate to begin 2023 in the rotation after his 14-start sophomore MLB season shaved over 2 runs of FIP and 1 of xFIP.
• Lefty Braxton Garrett got another dose of the big leagues last year, expanding to 17 starts and improving to a 3.56 FIP/3.50 xFIP.
• Sixto Sanchez is likely out until midsummer after the 24-year-old made his MLB debut with an impressive 3.50 FIP/4.08 xFIP behind a gaudy 58.0% ground ball rate.
• Max Meyer has an outside chance for some reps later in the year after recovering from TJ surgery; 2024 looks to be the year in which he could impact the Marlins’ rotation.
• 6’8″ 19-year-old flamethrower Eury Perez could get the call later this season for a handful of starts but his impact will likely be felt in 2024.

Miami’s future is bright with Sandy Alcantara and a collection of maturing top pitching prospects. That’s a great recipe for success in the seasons to come. In terms of 2023, manager Skip Schumaker and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, Jr. have a lot of juggling to do if their rotation is to deliver high-800s innings again. Upside from young talent will be slightly overshadowed by the Lopez to Cueto transition…still a top-half group but a tick down from 2022.

— Bullpen —

Perhaps the silver lining to having a lackluster bullpen is finding room for Miami’s young starting pitchers in relief roles. A lack of true lockdown relievers gives Schumaker a legitimate reason to run with a closer by committee approach that could bring out the best in his guys after losing multiple experienced relievers last offseason. Trading Anthony Bass at the height of a spectacular 2022 season seems like a shrewd move given his second half, though there is no clear answer how they’ll replace his 1.4 of the unit’s 1.5 WAR.

The back-end committee approach features a mix of familiar and new faces. Dylan Floro and Tanner Scott are back after making 123 appearances of the mid-3.00 FIP variety. Scott’s high-variance strikeout guy profile is an interesting counterpart to Floro’s control-based approach. Throw in AJ Puk after making it through a full season with Oakland and Matt Barnes eyeing a bounceback via change in scenery after a rocky split from Boston. The outlook for these former first-rounders is more optimistic for the younger Puk though. Realistically, this high-leverage quartet represents the meat of the bullpen’s value.

Managing the Downside

Where’s the upside? If Miami’s relief unit is going to take a step in the right direction, it has to come from raising the group’s floor. AJ Puk helps stop the bleeding from losing Anthony Bass but you can’t say the same with the JT Chargois-for-Zach Pop swap, another one shipped to Toronto last summer. The collection of early-30-year-old relievers with light MLB experience includes Steven Okert, Tommy Nance, and long reliever Huascar Brazoban – placeholders for younger talent looking for innings with the big league club. There’s just a little too much uncertainty with an iffy bottom half and nondescript back end for noticeable improvement in 2023.

— Position Players —

General manager Kim Ng took another whack at incrementally improving this lineup. Last offseason’s push for a more pop with Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia fell flat. This winter’s move towards consistency, however, would complement rebound years from those corner outfielders nicely. Both Soler and Garcia missed considerable time in 2022 – key parts of Miami’s utter failure to hit left-handed hitting (.208/.273/.325). Fortunately, Garcia can tack on another 25% offensively and still have a conservative expectation. Improvement from these two alone realistically nets the lineup a couple extra wins of value.

The newest additions of note are Luis Arraez, in return for Pablo Lopez, and free agent Jean Segura. Segura figures to play out of position at third base in lieu of a mishmash of Jon Berti, Joey Wendle, Brian Anderson, etc. Even if you downgrade him to league average he still represents a 10% bump for the position with guys like Berti and rookie Jordan Groshans backing up at third. Moving Segura to hide Arraez at second tells us how sketchy the infield could be after trading everyday shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers. Some good news is that Joey Wendle has held his own in limited innings at short. Through all the position changes and new faces in the field I still have Miami’s defense right above average with slight upside.

Turning the Corner

Tacking on Luis Arraez gives the Marlins something they didn’t have last year: a .350+ on-base hitter. Interesting that one +15-20% hitter pushes another +15-20% hitter, Jazz Chisholm, Jr. to center field – even if it was Jazz’s idea to do so. His blazing speed should be a boon to learning the position once he gets his outfielder legs underneath him. It doesn’t hurt to have an Eric Davis type of guy in center, right? With cooperation from corner outfielders Avisail Garcia, Bryan De La Cruz, and Jesus Sanchez you can see how Miami adds another 4-6% at the plate this season with better splits against left-handed pitching.

The Marlins could do a lot worse than Garrett Cooper at first base. His brief power surge in 2020-2021 looks to be a thing of the past but running back last season’s .261/.337/.415 doesn’t hurt the cause. Plus the catching tandem of Jacob Stallings and 26-year-old Nick Fortes holds year-over-year growth potential. Stallings slumped hard in his first season away from Pittsburgh on both sides of the plate, making a 1+ WAR rebound an easy mark to achieve. His understudy, Fortes should carry on as an average bat with plus defensive skills. So things look to be on the upswing in South Florida, all things considered.

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Washington Nationals 2023 Win Total: Open 61.5, Now 60

2022 Result: Under 71.5 (55-107 / Pythag: 56)

A 16-game miss of market expectations leads to a ton of questions for an organization. As the Nationals effectively purged their roster over the last couple years, a ton of “opportunities” have come about for players to step into starting roles. But it’s going to take a while for Washington’s prospect pipeline to crank out winning seasons. After seeing last season’s bottom-five lineup and MLB-worst rotation in action first hand, I’d like to play the role of optimist and say there’s nowhere to go but up for the Nats.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• A. Colome (RHP – RP)
• C. Dickerson (OF)
• D. Smith (1B/OF)
• T. Williams (RHP – RP)
• J. Candelario (3B)

Subtractions:

• C. Hernandez (INF)
• E. Fedde (RHP – SP)
• L. Voit (1B/DH)
• A. Sanchez (RHP – SP)
• S. Cishek (RHP – RP)
• N. Cruz (DH)
• J. Ross (RHP – SP)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 57 – 70

— Position Players —

Strip down the roster, graduate some prospects, and fill the holes with cheap veterans. This is a pivotal year for the Nationals’ rebuild after winning a rock-bottom 55 games. Washington’s lineup wasn’t bottom of the barrel bad last season and, ironically, did not flinch after general manager Mike Rizzo shipped their two best hitters to San Diego in early August. Franchise cornerstone Juan Soto and Josh Bell fetched three prospects, shortstop CJ Abrams, left-handed pitcher Mackenzie Gore, and first baseman Luke Voit. Soto and Bell were clearly the team’s best hitters yet the offense somehow managed to hold their own after the trade deadline.

WSN Offense, Before & After Soto/Bell Trade

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
Thru 8/1	.245	.314	.371	93
After 8/1	.254	.303	.389	93

Remove the two best hitters from your roster and don’t miss a beat? Granted, the post-Soto/Bell period lasted only two months and short-run numbers can be misleading. The Nats didn’t suddenly get a boost from Luke Voit or CJ Abrams – the lifeline came from within. That’s the sort of thing that Mike Rizzo wanted to see after dealing the franchise’s final major trade piece. A combination of fresh faces and strong second halves kept the ship afloat through the end of the miserable season, creating some optimism for the year ahead.

• Designated hitter Joey Meneses finally got his shot in the majors at the age of 30, mashing 13 home runs with a 156 wRC+ after the trades; expect a more modest .260/.310/.450 and 20+ homers in full-time duty after 2022’s .371 BABIP.
• Outfielder Lane Thomas’ first season as a full time player was a tale of two parts, improving productivity by 23% after August 1st; Thomas realistically has a league-average bat.
• Catcher Keibert Ruiz also stepped up in August, improving offensively by 24%; also an average-plus hitter.
• Second baseman Luis Garcia took advantage of increased playing time, doubling his career plate appearances and creeping his way toward average production.

Shifting Expectations

“League average” is a common theme among these building blocks moving into 2023. Things could be worse, considering the Nats posted their worst offensive season in over a decade. As for carryover players like Victor Robles and Yadiel Hernandez, their outlooks are less clear in the grand scheme of the franchise. Robles was spectacular in center field but continued to struggle at the plate with a third-straight sub-.225 batting average. I’m skeptical of the calls for a 10-20% offensive bump and more on board with expectations for another season of strong fielding. Unfortunately for Hernandez, he’s a non-roster invitee to Spring Training and will battle for a spot on the Opening Day roster. The lefty adds little defensive value and failed to progress beyond – you guessed it – league average.

2022’s low bar created some low-hanging fruit. Even with Joey Meneses’ impending BABIP regression, modest expectations ahead are still a significant improvement over the Nelson Cruz/Luke Voit tandem that combined for a .232/.308/.351 line at -1.1 WAR. If confined to second base instead of dabbling at shortstop, Luis Garcia offers plus fielding skills that should lift the position group value by a win or so. The catching tandem of Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams also has room to grow; Ruiz through maturation and Adams by shaking off a rough .220 BABIP. So second base, catcher, and DH could collectively add 3-4 WAR with subtle improvements – all of which were set up by sketchy production last year.

A Patchwork Lineup

Mike Rizzo and the front office attacked their Swiss cheese lineup with several budget-friendly free agent signings. Journeyman corner outfielder Corey Dickerson creates a platoon situation as a left-hander skewed against righties. His presence on the roster gives younger players like Alex Call better opportunities for playing time without being leaned on heavily. Realistically, substituting Dickerson for fellow lefty Yadiel Hernandez is a lateral move.

In 2020 and ’21, he hit a combined .278/.356/.458, good for a 125 wRC+. He backed that up with decent defense at third base; all told, he looked like a comfortably above-average player carried by his bat. Then came 2022, an abject disaster; over 124 injury-interrupted games, he hit .217/.272/.361…

The Nationals Bet on Volatility with Jeimer Candelario – Ben Clemens, FanGraphs.com – November 30, 2022

The Nationals did not wait long this offseason to roll the dice on a Jeimer Candelario rebound. Detroit’s breakout third baseman of the 2020-2021 seasons had a rough go last year and found himself a free agent. Significant upside lies with Candelario if he can regain the hard contact that defined those two peak seasons. That’s a big if though. At least Maikel Franco’s 64 wRC+ last season at third leaves plenty of room for upside. And perhaps a change of scenery and more regular playing time will help former Met Dominic Smith improve. He is a disadvantageous substitution for Josh Bell at first base, though someone like Joey Meneses can share time there again. Although I have not yet made final offensive adjustments, Washington is in line for a 2-3% bump despite Juan Soto’s absence.

Is the CJ Abrams Train Still On the Tracks?

Padres’ 2019 first-round draft pick CJ Abrams’ is a major part of the team’s turnaround, especially as the figurehead return in the Juan Soto trade. So far, not so good. His bat was lackluster and glove left something to be desired – traits shared by the Nats’ roster at large. But in continuing the theme of upside, the 22-year-old has a lot of runway left in his young career. Abrams is far from a passive batter and his success in AAA confirmed the kid’s ability to get on base and let his legs do the damage.

Getting on base was a problem in Abrams’ MLB debut. Between the 90 games played in San Diego and Washington his output was a paltry .246/.280/.324 with 2 home runs and 7 stolen bases. The Nationals’ low offensive output and league-worst fielding at the shortstop position last year gives CJ a prime opportunity to net somewhere around 2 wins of additional value there. An improvement at the plate around 15-20% is a big part of that equation. Turning around the team’s horrendous fielding at this premium position is the other benefit. The combination of Garcia moving to second base – where he is much better suited – and Abrams growing from his rookie experiences at short will generate huge dividends for the team’s defense while helping the pitching staff. Another season of neutral outfield defense and strong improvement on the dirt gets a firm upward adjustment.

— Rotation —

The Nats’ 2019 World Series rotation of Max Scherzer, Steven Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin seems like it was a thing a decade ago. In just a few short years the starting pitching situation in D.C. devolved into the MLB’s worst group as measured by WAR (-1.1), losses (86), ERA (5.97), and FIP (5.58). Scherzer is long gone, Strasburg has pitched 31.1 innings since the World Series run, and Corbin is still hanging in there. Despite pitching full workloads ever since coming to town in 2019, Patrick Corbin’s 6.05 ERA and 5.14 FIP/4.25 xFIP over the past two seasons has been rough. Even his low-4.00s xFIPs hasn’t spared him from mid-to-upper-4.00s projections for 2023.

My offseason expectations for the 2022 rotation leaned towards treading water…was I wrong or what? This year, I’m looking at Washington’s starting pitchers rebounding by 6-7 wins back around their 2021 value. Cratering to a negative value last season took a group effort from a number of 5.00+ FIP pitchers including Erick Fedde and Anibal Sanchez. Both of those veterans averaged less than 5 innings/start in just 41 outings. Those two were left to walk in free agency, only to be replaced by young talent and incoming free agent Trevor Williams. Considering that the 30-year-old Williams hasn’t cracked 100 innings since 2019, the Nats are realistically looking at a 20-start year at mid-4.00s effectiveness.

Unlocking Young Talent

One benefit of trading away elite-level players is watching the young prospects make their presence known in the majors. Josiah Gray came over from the Dodgers in the 2021 Max Scherzer trade to pitch a full 28-start 2022 season. 148.2 innings was impressive; the 5.86 FIP/4.57 xFIP not so much. 10%+ walk rates in both big-league seasons are problematic but Josiah’s on-the-job training will pay dividends as his production should revert towards that mid-to-upper-4.00s xFIP figure. Modest improvement and lengthening starts turns Gray’s -0.6 WAR positive.

Last year’s Juan Soto trade returned also left-hander MacKenzie Gore. The 2017 third-overall draft pick joins fellow 24-year-old Cade Cavalli as very inexperienced big league starters likely to join the Opening Day rotation. With limited MLB innings under their belts a realistic workload expectation is something like 20-ish starts and 100 innings each. At low-to-mid-4.00s FIP the Nats are looking at 2 WAR or so from the pair. Compare that to the -0.5 WAR over 217.2 innings turned in by Joan Adon, Anibal Sanchez, and Paolo Espino – all of whom delivered 5.00+ FIPs as starters. The problem comes when Washington inevitably has to dip into their reserves and call up someone like Adon, Chad Kuhl, or Wily Peralta to fill in the gaps. That’s where this group’s ceiling hangs low.

— Bullpen —

The bullpen is just as thin as the rotation. And they’re pretty much all righties too. For the most part, last year’s cast of characters returns to D.C.’s relief unit – for better or worse. Back-end guys like Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey figure to be the club’s mid-3.00s high-leverage arms again. Perhaps ground ball contact pitchers Erasmo Ramirez and Victor Arano will benefit from an improved infield defense, otherwise, it’s a group lacking a core of truly effective relievers who can put games away. I’ll cut to the chase here – expect another bottom-third season from the bullpen without much change in value either way. Their maturing rotation will push a lot of innings their way once again, testing it’s minimal depth throughout the season. In all fairness, what good does a strong bullpen do a 60-win team anyways?

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2023 NL East Projected Standings

1. Atlanta Braves (97-65)
2. New York Mets (96-66)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
4. Miami Marlins (77-85)
5. Washington Nationals (61-101)

Feel the Madness

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