The second half of the 2022 MLB season featured a pair of noteworthy NL Central battles. Most importantly was the tug of war for last place between my Cincinnati Reds and their dance partner Pittsburgh Pirates (that’s sarcasm, folks). In a fitting conclusion they both held down the cellar with 100 losses. The real battle, however, left the Cubbies in no-man’s land as St. Louis bolted from the pack with a torrid August. It was good enough for them to cruise into October as the Milwaukee charge never materialized. Perhaps the Cardinals’ trip down easy street in September left their guard down for a wicked elimination to National League Pennant winner Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Or maybe it has them loading up for a stronger charge in 2023?

This is one in a series of six Divisional Previews & Futures outlooks for the 2023 MLB season – the 4th Annual Edition at BetCrushers.com. It’s an incremental process from season to season full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2022 Division Winner: St. Louis Cardinals

2022 NL Central Final Standings

1. St. Louis Cardinals (93-69)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (86-76)
3. Chicago Cubs (74-88)
4. Cincinnati Reds (62-100)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-100)

---

St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Win Total: Open 89.5

2022 Result: Over 85.5 (93-69 / Pythag: 95)

The Cardinals’ second-half stranglehold on the NL Central was pretty damn impressive given their ho hum pitching staff. But things look quite obvious when you take a step back and assess the potent combination of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt surrounded by rock-solid fielders. Top five defense. Top ten offense by many standards, especially against lefties. Stack them against some of the weaker rosters in the majors and it makes sense why it seemed so easy for St. Louis to pull away from the pack for a fourth straight playoff appearance and 14 straight winning seasons.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• W. Contreras (C)

Subtractions:

• J. Quintana (LHP – SP)
• C. Dickerson (OF)
• N. Wittgren (RHP – RP)
• TJ McFarland (LHP – RP)
• A. Reyes (RHP – RP)
• A. Pujols (1B/DH)
• Y. Molina (C)

BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 85 – 89

— Position Players —

St. Louis having a top five defense is not a new thing by any means. A top five offense is though. NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt’s 35 home runs, 106 runs, and .317/.404/.578 line edged out teammate Nolan Arenado for the Senior Circuit’s top honor. Arenado supplemented his 30 home runs and .293/.358/.533 line with 19 runs saved at the hot corner. Throw in Tommy Edman’s strong work at second base and shortstop and it’s no wonder why this was one of the best infield defenses in the majors.

Surprisingly, the outfield was much closer to neutral defensively. Center fielder Harrison Bader’s departure at the trade deadline did not help the cause in that sense, though surprising contributions from Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbar flipped that crew from being an offensive afterthought. There aren’t many indicators foretelling a fielding dropoff with of this fundamentally sound team. In fact, Dylan Carlson’s center field takeover went smoothly and bodes well for the season ahead. Plus bat and plus fielding at a premium position does not hurt the mission of defending the NL Central crown. Given the continuity on this roster, expect another top-rated Cardinals defense in 2023.

Is a Repeat in the Cards?

Sustaining offensive production at a level this franchise hasn’t seen in what seems like forever is a tall task. Evaluating how hard or soft of a landing there will be after a sharp spike often comes down to the outlier performances. St. Louis’ two MVP finalists are great starting points. Award-winner Paul Goldschmidt’s 30%+ premium above every season of his since 2015 leaves a sizable gap to negotiate. Nolan Arenado’s career year, after adjusting for Coors Field’s generous conditions, came at a 20% premium above reasonable expectation moving forward. Can these two repeat as a 14+ WAR corner infield duo? Anything is possible, but far from probable. Will the Cardinals take 9-12 WAR from the anchors of their lineup? Absolutely.

Regardless of how we think Albert Pujols exploded out of his offensive coma, The Machine’s 151 wRC+ leaves a big hole to fill at DH. Younger hitters like Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman are offense-first players with solidly plus bats – just not on the level that Pujols ended his illustrious career with. That 30-40% dropoff is big enough, let alone the dramatically skewed effectiveness against left-handed pitching. In fact, Albert Pujols’ 214 and Paul Goldschmidt’s 266 wRC+ against lefties push me to slash this split much more harshly than against righties. Fortunately, St. Louis gains offensive firepower behind the plate with Willson Contreras effectively doubling freshly-retired Yadier Molina’s production level. Contreras and Andrew Knizner make for a solid two-way catching tandem in Molina’s absence.

The Young Lefties

Strong plate skills led by his excellent eye (15% BB, 0.72 BB/K; lg avg: 8%, 0.36) and red-laden StatCast profile (80th+ percentile in HardHit, Max EV, Avg EV, Barrel, BB%, Chase) have boosted the hype on the 25-year-old…

5 Potential Breakouts per Steamer Projections, Paul Sporer – FanGraphs.com – November 10, 2022

Outfielder Lars Nootbar’s emergence helped make Harrison Bader expendable by the summer, helping to bring in valuable starting pitching help via Jordan Montgomery. Positive fielding in the corners paired well with 46.0% hard contact and a healthy .340 OBP. This team is all about getting on base and churning through the lineup. If the Cardinals’ power numbers are going to tick down after last year’s spike, fresh faces like Nootbar must maintain their plate discipline and keep things rolling. If evaluators like Sporer, Steamer, and ZIPS call for it, who am I to disagree?

Splash in even more optimism surrounding utility man turned regular second baseman Brendan Donovan after his eye-popping rookie debut. The 26-year-old played everywhere but catcher and center field with plus defensive numbers to show for it. It’s obviously not the 5 home runs that caught our attention; instead he demonstrated superb plate discipline en route to a .281/.394/.379 line over a substantial 468 plate appearances. Who needs power when you get on base 40% of the time? You have to expect that pitchers will adjust to his pickiness so we’ll see whether this young line drive hitter can keep his OBP above .350 and stay in that 2+ WAR tier in season two. 4-5 WAR from these young bucks ain’t bad.

Spared By Continuity

Retirement of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols aside, the Cardinals lineup has impressive continuity from the 2022 93-win season. Their crop of 20-somethings like Donovan, Nootbar, Yepez, and Gorman must maintain their rookie baselines to mitigate the lost production from Goldschmidt’s & Arenado’s career seasons. A healthy and effective Tyler O’Neill will also go a long way toward soaking up the leak. At this point, I’m looking at a 5%+ reduction in overall offense skewed towards a heftier reduction in splits versus lefties. It all comes down to this young crop holding their own this season to avoid a steeper dropoff.

— Rotation —

The rotation, on the other hand, was held together by a hodgepodge of pitchers with varying degrees of MLB experience. Ten Cardinals pitchers made five or more starts as veterans Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz were hampered by injuries. The revolving door also included familiar names like Jose Quintana and Jordan Hicks filling in for 20 starts alongside rotation staples Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas. Quintana proved to be a huge trade deadline pickup, posting a 2.06 FIP/3.62 xFIP in 62.2 innings – almost the complete opposite from Hicks’ rough 5.66 FIP/5.13 xFIP as a starter.

Part of that jumbled equation was represented by a pair of young pitchers making their MLB debuts. Matthew Liberatore (5.10 FIP/5.14 xFIP, 7 starts) and Andre Pallante (4.01 FIP/3.42 xFIP, 10 starts) cut their teeth with varying degrees of success. If manager Oliver Marmol has it his way, the left-handed Liberatore will sharpen his five-pitch repertoire in AAA to begin the season then supplement Dakota Hudson as primary options to fill any gaps in the rotation. It is unclear what the long-term vision for Pallante is though. At this point, it appears the ground ball pitcher will be tapped for late-inning duty out of the bullpen until his future is firmed up.

Fading the IL

If not for the second-half infusion of the Yankees’ Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana from Pittsburgh, St. Louis’ stretch run could have played out much differently. Jordan Hicks struggled as a starter, making it through the 4th inning only once in eight early-season starts. Jack Flaherty was never fully ready to return to the rotation until September, and Steven Matz had two long IL stints for shoulder and knee issues encompassing nearly three months. St. Louis’ explosive offense bailed out their wounded, middling rotation but cannot be leaned on as heavily in the face of probable regression. Instead, Oliver Marmol needs a heathy group of five starters to anchor his squad.

Workload projections for Flaherty and Matz are generally on the conservative side. Their floors need to be at the 20-start mark to avoid throwing younger arms like Liberatore and Pallante into the mix prematurely. What this rotation really needs from each is around 25 starts and 140+ innings in the 4.00-FIP neighborhood to effectively close the gaps as the season wears on. Those goals may challenge Matz’ top end considering he has yet to surpass 160 IP in a season, whereas Flaherty’s expectations are a fraction of what he broke through with in 2018-2019.

Buoyed By Workhorses

The unfortunate circumstances of Jack Flaherty’s future should underline the appreciation for what Miles Mikolas has done in his absence. He too broke out in the 2018 and 2019 seasons and has been fortunate to avoid significant injury. Since becoming a full-time starter in St. Louis, Mikolas made 32 starts in all three non-COVID seasons with 200+ innings in two of them. Miles consistently delivers ground ball contact into the teeth of a fantastic infield defense with underrated control. Other than a bit of BABIP regression coming home to roost, this durable 34-year-old should be back in the 2-WAR range once again.

It’s almost as if Miles Mikolas is following in the footsteps of Cardinals great Adam Wainwright, who returns for his 17th season with the club. The 41-year-old made a living off of 30+ start, 200+ inning seasons by avoiding walks and producing weak, ground ball contact. Last year’s 2.8 WAR campaign surpassed anyone’s realistic expectations considering 26 of his 32 starts went 5+ innings – including two complete games! Logically, I have to account for a few less starts and 20-30 less innings in what might be his final MLB season.

Jordan Montgomery may not have reached true workhorse status like those two but he has shown positive signs the last couple seasons. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, the big left-hander ramped up from 4.4 innings/start in 2020 to 5.57 last year. Jordan’s trend toward durability and effectiveness as a ground ball pitcher with a strong sinker fits the Cardinals mold very well. St. Louis gets the benefits of a full season of Montgomery in the rotation, picking up some of Quintana’s lost value. The quick math cancels out modest declines by Wainwright and Mikolas with increased production by Matz and Flaherty to keep the rotation in the league-average tier. If healthy, this group has a couple more wins of upside in it.

— Bullpen —

Much like the rotation, last year’s bullpen ranked middle of the pack as a low-strikeout, high-ground ball unit. Good enough for NL Central work you could say. Its value was concentrated with co-closers Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, whose sub-3.00 FIPs and 30%+ strikeout rates combined for 33 of the team’s 37 saves. Gallegos eventually fell out of favor for 9th inning duties but you can almost guarantee that the sinker/slider pitcher will continue to be a high-leverage go-to. Although Helsley’s .185 BABIP screams regression for 2023, underlying numbers like an 18.3% swinging strike rate and the emergence of a tremendous four-seamer/slider pair with a sneaky curve should take take the edge off of an unsustainable 93.4% strand rate.

There are plenty of viable, experienced arms behind these two. The aforementioned Andre Pallante and Jordan Hicks are likely to be used primarily as relievers after experimental starters last season. They add oomph to the reliever corps. Chris Stratton and Dakota Hudson provide bulk while southpaw Genesis Cabrera sorts out his issues. Plus the hidden value in swingman candidate Drew VerHagen could be unlocked after his injury-marred MLB return yielded only 19 appearances and a rough 6.53 FIP/5.51 xFIP. The multitude of question marks will hold the Cardinals bullpen back from making a noticeable improvement but there’s enough beef to keep it from dropping off in 2023.

---

Milwaukee Brewers 2023 Win Total: Open 84.5

2022 Result: Under 88.5 (86-76 / Pythag: 85)

Milwaukee’s failure to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017 boiled down to poorly-timed struggles down the stretch that opened the back door for hotter teams like San Diego and Philadelphia. The Brew Crew’s offense proved better than anything they’ve trotted onto the field in years though. Their defense was good as usual but Corbin Burnes and the 2021 rotation set such a high bar that last year’s version could not come close to touching. Can Milwaukee’s bats maintain a high level while the rotation takes a step forward? Improvement is key to returning to the playoffs in 2023, though they might need a little help from the Cardinals to come back to the NL Central pack.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• O. Miller (INF)
• B. Anderson (3B/OF)
• W. Miley (LHP – SP)
• W. Contreras (C)
• J. Payamps (RHP – RP)
• J. Winker (OF)
• A. Toro (INF)
• J. Guerra (RHP – RP)
• J. Junk (RHP – SP)
• E. Peguero (RHP – RP)

Subtractions:

• K. Wong (2B)
• B. Suter (LHP – RP)
• H. Renfroe (OF)
• J. Peterson (INF)
• O. Narvaez (C)
• T. Rogers (LHP – RP)
• B. Boxberger (RHP – RP)
• J. Davis (OF)
• A. McCutcheon (OF)
• T. Gott (RHP – RP)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 81 – 83

— Rotation —

Come hell or high water, Milwaukee’s rotation has been propped up by dynamic duo Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for three years running. Woody’s career path is one year ahead of Burnes’, having made his MLB debut in 2017 and jumping into ace territory with a 3.3-WAR 2019 season. Corbin took the reigns as the Brewers’ #1 with a phenomenal 7.5-WAR Cy Young award-winning 2021 breakout. This “two-fifths” of the rotation have pulled their proportional weight of workload since 2020 with 42.0% of the rotation’s innings. To say that these two carry the team’s starting pitching is a major understatement.

WAR Share of Burnes & Woodruff, 2020-2022

	2022	2021	2020
Burnes	4.6	7.5	2.4
Woodruff	3.5	4.7	2.1
MIL SP	12.4	20.3	6.3
% Share	65.3%	60.1%	71.4%

Expecting a small step back after a combined 12.2 WAR in 2021 was warranted and ultimately realized. Last season demonstrated that these two should continue down the path of 8-10 combined WAR via 370+ IP around 3.00 FIP. That’s tough to beat in the NL Central. Step down to the B-tier occupied by Freddy Peralta and Eric Lauer where the production level is about a full run higher and workload around 100 innings fewer. Still not bad by any means as Manager Craig Counsell’s club benefits greatly from the depth this pitching staff offers. Note that neither Peralta nor Lauer have cracked the 160 IP plateau in their careers – and aren’t expected to get there in 2023 either.

First World Problems

With arms like that, the Brewers “problem” of how to effectively round out the rotation seems very minor compared to two dozen other teams. Veteran left-hander Wade Miley continues his tour of the NL Central after a disappointing injury-soaked season with the Cubbies. It was the type of year that justified Cincinnati’s puzzling move not to re-sign him despite a solid, 3.0-WAR rebound campaign in 2021. Regardless, Milwaukee gets another fifth starter tacked onto this strong rotation through a cheap one-year deal with incentives tied to innings. It makes a ton of sense for both parties. Injuries aside, Miley’s cutter has prolonged the 36-year-old’s career enough to warrant mid-4.00s FIP projections.

The Crew has a solid depth piece in Adrian Houser who can assume some of Wade’s injury risk. Plus 24-year-old southpaw Aaron Ashby still has potential to contribute to the rotation if he can build up resistance to the yips navigating through the lineup a second or third time. Not sure there’s much in the way of reinforcements waiting in the wings at AAA Nashville though. The likes of Jason Alexander and Janson Junk don’t pop out as prime candidates to shake up the bottom of the rotation. This top five – or even top three – Brewers rotation is poised to deliver 2+ additional wins of value after regressing back towards their mean in 2022.

— Bullpen —

A Milwaukee bullpen without Josh Hader does not seem right after what feels like an eternity of the lanky lefty locking up the NL Central. Last summer’s surprise move made business sense but was met with steep resistance in the clubhouse. And justifiably so. Despite lacking his typical invincibility, Hader still pulled a lot of weight with the Brewers’ relief unit before being shipped to San Diego. Now this is Devin Williams’ bullpen to lead. Everyone knows about the 28-year-old’s filthy Airbender and his massive strikeout and swinging strike rates. And when hitters make contact, it is generally weak and on the ground. But his dark side continues to be a double-digit walk rate that get downplayed by his elite closer qualities.

With Hader’s shoes filled by Devin Williams, does the bullpen have enough quality arms to maintain late-inning leads? I’d say yes. However, the team no longer has two bona fide lockdown relievers on the roster. Plus they lost Brad Boxberger and his 128.2 IP over the last two seasons in Milwaukee as he went a little further south to Chicago. Former Ranger Matt Bush slots into Boxberger’s supporting role fairly well though. I’m not quite sold on Peter Strzelecki as a key setup man but agree with the upside expectations on Hoby Milner with the rebirth of his sinker and new approach. Last year reset the baseline for this good Milwaukee bullpen – no longer an elite one – that should repeat as a mid-pack group in 2023.

— Position Players —

Who saw last year’s offensive outburst coming? I sure as hell didn’t. The 2022 lineup blew my expectation for business as usual out of the water. Headlined by career years from Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong, Milwaukee’s 104 wRC+ was their largest output in over a decade. Unexpected part-time contributions from the likes of Keston Hiura, Mike Brosseau, and rookie Garrett Mitchell led to the MLB’s third-most 219 home runs despite a bottom-third batting average (.235). With Renfroe and Wong no longer on the team, the Brew Crew looks to go younger with an eye towards top prospects Mitchell and Brice Turang as regular parts of their 2023 lineup.

10-year NL Central denizen Kolten Wong was shipped to Seattle in December for former Cincinnati Red Jesse Winker and infielder Abraham Toro. The Seattle imports join former Marlin Brian Anderson to provide serious depth with Winker in line for rotational duties between the corner outfield positions and designated hitter. Most would agree that his brief stint with the Mariners was an anomaly (.219/.344/.344) compared to his final two seasons in Cincinnati. Modest expectations to get back to the 40%+ hard contact level and rebound from a rough .251 BABIP should gain Winker an additional 10% of productivity at the plate. If considering the left-hander’s bat a replacement for Renfroe’s, expect less power but more consistency getting on base.

Replacing Wong at second base is the Brewers’ #2 prospect Brice Turang. The 23-year-old has yet to sniff MLB action but has the speed and fielding skills to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. His on-the-job training will cost the team over 20% in productivity when stacked up against Kolten’s career year, especially the strong splits he held against right-handed pitching (135 wRC+). Veterans Willy Adames and Luis Urias should maintain their production levels through 2023 while the boom-or-bust Rowdy Tellez presents an interesting case for 10%+ upside after a .215-BABIP 2022 season that still produced 35 homers.

Shuffling the Deck

Milwaukee needs more out of the catcher spot after Victor Caratini and Omar Narvaez combined for a meager 78 wRC+. Former Braves backstop William Contreras was tapped to fill Omar’s shoes and lead this position group, especially after Caratini faded down the stretch. Granted, Contreras is not considered a good framer or defensive catcher in general. But he is a significant offensive upgrade over last season’s tandem. Expect a high level of defense from the Brewers once again despite a small dropoff behind the plate.

Part of this defensive stability is credited to outfielder Tyrone Taylor (2022: 102 wRC+, 6 DRS), who is slated for a regular role in the corners as 24-year-old Garrett Mitchell comes onto the scene to play center. Speed and slick fielding are Mitchell’s calling card, though his rapid ascent through the minors in 2021-2022 sets a decent floor around league-average for his bat. They’ll share the outfield with Christian Yelich, whose baseline is recalibrated in everyone’s numbers at this point. He’s no longer the .600-slugging MVP; still a valuable top of the order hitter with a .350+ OBP in each of his last three seasons.

I can appreciate the future upside that Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, and pipeline players like Sal Frelick (10/1-ish for NL RoY) and Joey Wiemer bring to the team. Reconciling the loss of Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong – especially after their career offensive seasons – knocks the lineup down several percentage points, notably against righties. Particularly interesting will be how Craig Counsell juggles the DH role with excess hitters like Jesse Winker, Keston Hiura, and even William Contreras all looking for ABs. Depth is a nice luxury to have with a quality manager at the helm.

---

Chicago Cubs 2023 Win Total: Open 78, Now 77.5

2022 Result: Over 73.5 (74-88 / Pythag: 73)

For the second season in a row, Game 162 turned out to be a pivotal finale in one of my win total futures bets. 2021’s Cincinnati Reds under flamed out on the final game, then one year later my Redlegs failed to sweep the Cubs and keep them under 73 wins. To be fair, the World Series National League representative went 0-6 against Chicago. Nothing personal, Philadelphia, considering I pretty much saw the Cubbies stinging me for a loss shortly after betting it in our Preseason Wrap-up. I guess somebody had to be the thorn in my side last season!

If there is any win total that I “regret” playing as soon as those futures markets opened it has to be the Cubs. My updated win total range drifted up as they signed Seiya Suzuki – one of the short favorites to win Rookie of the Year – and a rash of minor veteran bullpen additions. That cost me a few wins as the market moved accordingly. 

MLB 2022 Preseason Wrap-Up – BetCrushers.com – April 2, 2022

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• M. Fulmer (RHP – RP)
• T. Mancini (1B)
• E. Hosmer (1B)
• D. Smyly (LHP – SP)
• T. Barnhart (C)
• D. Swanson (SS)
• C. Bellinger (CF)
• J. Taillon (RHP – SP)
• B. Boxberger (RHP – RP)

Subtractions:

• W. Contreras (C)
• D. Smyly (LHP – SP)
• R. Ortega (OF)
• W. Miley (LHP – SP)
• J. Heyward (OF)
• F. Reyes (DH/OF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 72 – 77

— Rotation —

We closed out the season’s second half with a 39-31 record (a .557 winning percentage), which is fifth-best in the National League. Several of our position players proved that they belong at the major league level while our pitching infrastructure continued to improve. This improvement is perhaps best evidenced by our starting pitchers posting a 2.89 ERA following the All-Star break, third-best in the majors.

Letter From Tom Ricketts, Chairman of the Chicago Cubs – October 11, 2022

The Cubs’ post-ASB rotation was a key element in failing to sweep my 2022 season win totals their climbing out of the NL Central basement. It may have been a revolving door in terms of the number of arms but the collective had a seamless effectiveness. Spanning Opening Day to Game 162, Chicago’s starting rotation settled in around mid-pack with a 3.95 ERA and a bottom-third 4.35 FIP. Isolate the second half of the season and this group slashed its ERA by nearly 2 runs and FIP by about a 1/2 run from their first half start.

Key CHC Returning Starters: 2022 Production by Season Half

	1H Starts	1H ERA	1H FIP	2H Starts	2H ERA	2H FIP
J. Steele	17	4.15	3.40	7	0.98	2.76
K. Hendricks	16	4.80	4.82	—	—	—
M. Stroman	11	4.69	3.85	14	2.71	3.70
D. Smyly	11	4.22	4.77	11	2.83	3.78

Other than Kyle Hendricks, who missed the second half with a right shoulder tear, starters Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman, and Drew Smyly found their grooves after the All-Star Break. Shoulder inflammation cut into Stroman’s season but quickly made up for lost time upon return. A relatively healthy 2023 should get him back around 180 IP with that ground ball contact approach. Lefty Justin Steele was perhaps the biggest surprise on the roster after his breakout season. He employs a low-90s fastball/slider approach like Stro, generating 51.2% ground ball contact at an impressive 33.3% hard hit rate over 119.0 innings. The sharpness of Steele’s 3.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP/3.48 xFIP production may not be quite as pronounced if manager David Ross can stretch the 27-year-old closer to 150 innings. Regardless, sub-4.00 production is realistic. An improved infield defense behind him does not hurt the cause.

The needle mover for Chicago’s rotation in 2023 is free agent acquisition Jameson Taillon. A successful two-year post-Tommy John surgery stint with the Yankees earned Taillon a four-year, $68M deal. His 2022 season showed growth with respect to workload (177.1 IP) and hard contact prevention (35.7%) with help from an expanded pitch repertoire. While the big righty’s stuff is far from overpowering, a team could do much worse with known quantities like Stroman and Taillon joining forces with an upstart like Justin Steele. This is a top three more representative of a .500 or better team – a step in the right direction for the Cubs.

Changes On the Horizon

Questions surround the two 33-year-olds in the group, Hendricks and Smyly. Kyle Hendricks’ shoulder injury cut short a second straight season of decreasing ground ball rates, increasing hard contact, and 4.00+ ERA/FIP performance. Drew Smyly returns to the Cubs having yet to post back-to-back sub-4.00 ERA and FIP campaigns since 2015. And he’s failed to crack the 130 IP threshold since 2016. Father Time is undefeated after all. Health and durability concerns aside, some combination of Smyly and Hendricks will gobble up starts and pin down the back part of the rotation.

Not to fear, as a pair of interesting 25-year-olds made their MLB debuts last summer. Righties Hayden Wesnecki and Javier Assad combined for 12 starts and 61.0 IP – the former with a promising 1.85 ERA and 2.82 FIP/3.87 xFIP somewhat tempered by a small four-start sample and .254 BABIP. Assad cranked out twice as many starts with a 2.95 ERA and 4.64 FIP/5.08 xFIP. A worrisome 12.0% walk rate needs to be addressed in AAA this spring, though walks have been much less of a problem in the minors. Expect one or both of these young arms to make contributions in 2023. Plus veteran journeyman Adrian Sampson posted much improved numbers over his pre-KBO days. He adds depth and is a likely candidate for swingman duties. I don’t hate it…a Stroman/Taillon/Steele trifecta plus a cobbled-together bottom half should gain 2-3 WAR while their young arms develop.

— Position Players —

Plenty of carryover from Chicago’s 2022 lineup is a good thing considering how they shrugged off a two-year offensive slump. Now the Cubs benefit from the services of a top-tier shortstop after inking Dansby Swanson to a 7-year, $177M deal. Maybe Dansby’s .277/.329/.447 season is unlikely to be replicated but a league-average bat, at minimum, pairs quite well with his durability. The 29-year-old played in every game last year while grinding out 1,349 plate appearances over the last two seasons. Hell, Swanson has only missed two games going back to the compressed 2020 season!

Anchoring the infield with Swanson at short pushes Nico Hoerner back to second base – a position where he has been just as good, if not better, than shortstop. Hoerner replaced the dynamic Javier Baez without missing a beat and can now flip back to the right side. A big-picture view says Dansby’s fielding contributions are pure upside with Nico replacing last season’s net-negative second base position group. And don’t sleep on the fact that both of these plus-bat, top-of-the-lineup hitters have very good speed on the base paths.

The one-year gamble on free agent left-handed centerfielder Cody Bellinger is a shrewd move for a club rising in the NL Central ranks. Unpredictable offense aside, Bellinger stands to be a major defensive upgrade in centerfield over the likes of Rafael Ortega and Christopher Morel. The dude is just 27 years old and can still fly around the field, taking the edge off of any uneasiness swirling around the wide range of possibilities at the plate. Unless Cody turns out to be a disaster, he should fit well between the 5-6 WAR corner duo of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Those two stand to repeat as a collective with positive (15-25%) offensive numbers. Keep in mind that Happ could be a prime trade deadline bargaining trip once again.

It’s Not All Roses

Now for the iffy part. It’s tough to lose 500-PA catcher Willson Contreras – especially to division rival St. Louis – after seven seasons with the Cubbies. Especially after posting a career-high 132 wRC+ and career-low 21.1% strikeout rate. Adding Tucker Barnhart stops a very small part of the bleeding at this position. After a rough season offensively, he joins forces with Yan Gomes to create an okay platoon that should add a little something on defense. Tie that together with the improvement that Swanson and Bellinger bring to the field for significant defensive improvement across the board.

The corner infield positions are works in progress. With Cody Bellinger assuming the everyday centerfielder role, most of Christopher Morel’s time seems fitting for the infield with the likes of Patrick Wisdom, Zach McKinstry, and Eric Hosmer. This trio leaves a lot to be desired defensively but their deficiencies can be ignored a little easier with the outfield locked down. Morel has the speed and good enough bat skills for a 23-year-old not to put him in the lineup more days than not. And with Wisdom gradually losing his luster (2022: .207/.298/.426) the emergence of thumper Matt Mervis could not come any sooner – regardless of the Hosmer signing. Despite question marks at first, third, and catcher, Chicago shored up their offense after losing Willson Contreras.

— Bullpen —

Chicago’s bullpen begins a theme cascading down to the remaining two clubs in this 2023 NL Central preview. Their wrinkle is being not too disastrous while not scaring many opposing lineups. As a fringe wild card contender, the Cubs’ need for elite high-leverage arms is marginal anyways. Jed Hoyer flipped this group at the 2022 trade deadline, divesting the club of David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross. The reality hanging over the 2023 bullpen is one of low expectations with limited upside via the likes of Brandon Hughes and veterans Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger. Prepare for inevitable variance on a day-to-day basis as Chicago’s relief unit looks to sort out its roles and gain stability along the way.

---

Cincinnati Reds 2023 Win Total: Open 64.5, Now 66

2022 Result: Under 76.5 (62-100 / Pythag: 64)

They had a semi-respectable direction in 2020 & 2021 at least. Then things took a very dark turn last offseason when Cincinnati Reds ownership drastically slashed spending. Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Luis Castillo were all moved to the Mariners at some point. Plus Nick Castellanos was left to walk to Philadelphia, narrowing missing out on a championship ring. My Redlegs took the express route to a 62-win season but is there reason for me to be optimistic with them in 2023?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• C. Pinder (INF)
• L. Weaver (RHP)
• W. Myers (1B/OF)
• C. Casali (C)
• N. Solak (INF/OF)
• K. Newman (SS)
• L. Maile (C)

Subtractions:

• M. Moustakas (3B)
• K. Farmer (INF)
• D. Moreta (RHP – RP)
• A. Aquino (OF)
• D. Solano (INF)
• J. Hoffman (RHP – RP)
• C. Moran (INF)
• H. Strickland (RHP – RP)
• M. Minor (LHP – SP)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 57 – 71

— Position Players —

The early offseason brought a swap at the shortstop position, bringing in Pittsburgh’s Kevin Newman as Kyle Farmer was shipped to the Twins. For a franchise that has no intention to compete this season, these transactions are far from terrible. Don’t get me wrong, as a Reds homer I’m a big fan of what Farmer did for the club the last couple seasons. What this lineup will miss the most is his strong bat against lefties. Newman’s upside, ironically, is offensive variance. Despite this being another Bob Castellini-led charge to shave payroll, there is the whole waiting for the shortstop pipeline game. Plus his neighbor at third base, Spencer Steer, carries high expectations for a rookie. So if you want to talk about high variance, look no further than the left side of this infield.

The one-year deal with Wil Myers is unexciting but last summer’s routine of running AAA players in the outfield to flank Nick Senzel was not the answer. Granted, we’ll still see plenty of TJ Friedl and Stuart Fairchild roaming the GABP grass in 2023. They’re young and have a reasonable chance to blend together as a plus-bat duo in some fashion. At the age of 32, we know what Wil Myers is: a good contact hitter with enough pop who strikes out a little too much. Throw lefty Jake Fraley into the sauce and you have a serviceable platoon-friendly outfield. In the meantime, us Reds fans have to keep in mind that pipeline reinforcements are on their way…in 2024.

Just a Shell Game?

After a complicated relationship, Cincy bid farewell to 34-year-old infielder Mike Moustakas. Accelerating Moose’s departure was arguably a must after his rapid decline in the Queen City. The reality is there’s enough twenty-something infielders on this roster to fill his spot. The likes of Spencer Steer and Jose Barrero need development but represent anything but a steep dropoff in this respect. Moustakas makes one veteran out with another making his return to the Reds. Curt Casali adds important depth behind the Redlegs’ most valuable position player, Tyler Stephenson – a centerpiece who has taken a ton of abuse behind the plate. Sure, Casali may not offer as much at the plate but he is steady on defense and is far from terrible as an 8/9 hitter.

I didn’t know I was hurt. Thought I just stunk.

— Joey Votto (@JoeyVotto) August 20, 2022

Another added dimension Stephenson brings is experience playing first base. This helps keep his .270/.335/.425-ish bat in the lineup whiteout subjecting the 26-year-old to the wear-and-tear of being a primary catcher. Barring a miraculous comeback from Cincy lifer Joey Votto, Tyler’s availability in the first base rotation is a nice boost to an iffy lineup. I am personally hopeful for a Votto grand finale. From a numbers perspective, a realistic upside expectation is an average bat in the lineup for 100+ games.

The Wild Card

The Myers-Senzel-Friedl outfield trio with a side of Stuart Fairchild, Nick Solak, etc. pencils out around league-average at the plate – a firm step forward from the 62-win team. And I don’t see the defense getting much worse than last year, assuming Nick Senzel isn’t a disaster again. There’s plenty of room for modest improvement in the field with this younger club, especially with a healthy Jonathan India in the lineup. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year hit one injury setback after another but is allegedly healthy and ready to roll in 2023.

India is the wild card that can make a significant difference on the heels of a disappointing season #2. All aspects of his game suffered from lower body injuries, so improvement to a level between the two seasons is reasonable. There’s going to be plenty of on-the-job training but I’m looking at a small improvement with this offense. Even a few percentage points can make a difference toward turning things in the right direction.

— Rotation —

While we’re on the topic of on-the-job training, Cincinnati’s young pitching staff earned a fair amount in ’22. Overall, the rotation settled in near the bottom of the league with a 4.97 ERA and 4.71 FIP for the entire season. Remove Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle from the equation – both are now gone from the club – and the numbers look worse. Castillo was traded to Seattle after delivering a 3.19 FIP/3.38 xFIP in 14 starts; Mahle shipped to Minnesota after 19 starts at 3.60 FIP/3.95 xFIP. Their combined 189.1 innings will be missed but a trio of young starters give the Reds some promise as they look to cement their roles in 2023.

Cincinnati’s “New Big Three” (2022)

	’23 Age	IP	FIP	xFIP	K%	GB%
Greene	23	125.2	4.37	3.64	30.9%	29.3%
Lodolo	25	103.1	3.90	3.47	29.1%	46.0%
Ashcraft	25	105.0	4.21	4.09	15.3%	54.5%

Pitching coach Derek Johnson has a ton of talent between this homegrown trio. Their collective 62 starts earned some major league stripes, showcasing their individual skillsets en route to a 4.7 WAR valuation. Building off of this rookie experience, DJ can tune these kids up and squeeze out another 3-4 WAR in year two.

• Hunter Greene easily hits 100 mph with the four-seamer; his slider frustrated a lot of opposing hitters. The prototypical tall power pitcher gave up too much hard contact – and 24 home runs in as many starts – though a refined approach should pull his FIP closer to xFIP. A 14.5% swinging strike rate tells you a lot about his stuff.
• Lanky southpaw Nick Lodolo gets swings-and-misses and plenty of ground ball contact with a throwback cutter/slider approach. His four pitch repertoire sets him up for deep outings, as demonstrated by eight 6.0+ inning starts as a rookie.
• Graham Ashcraft isn’t nearly as dazzling as Greene and Lodolo though he changes velocities well, getting a ton of ground balls – a very important quality at Great American Ball Park for a low-K pitcher.

Transitioning starter Luis Cessa and castoff Luke Weaver are less exciting compared to those three. Any production close to the low-4.00 FIP mark for either would be a win for the rotation. It’s extremely unlikely though as Weaver’s role over the past few seasons hints towards him being a 10-start fill-in type. Swingman Conor Overton and reclamation project Justin Dunn can make spot starts with prospect Brandon Williamson in the queue for a late season call-up. Their collective contributions are minimal in the big picture. Despite a lack of depth and losing Castillo and Mahle I’m penciling the rotation in for a gain around 2 wins.

— Bullpen —

Lack of depth is a recurring theme with the entire Reds pitching staff. The bullpen loses Cessa to the rotation and shapes up as a mishmash of serviceable relievers who are far from household names. Edwin Diaz’ younger brother Alexis leads Cincy’s high-leverage group after an interesting 1.84 ERA rookie debut. His fastball/slider combo generated eye-popping 16.3% swinging strike and 32.5% strikeout rates. But the red flag gets raised by Diaz’ lofty 12.9% walk rate, .179 BABIP, and a more pedestrian 3.32 FIP/3.97 xFIP. Reality will bite if/when the BABIP pendulum swings back the other way.

Two upside arms return to the team after lost 2022 seasons. Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims provide support to Diaz if things go according to plan. Antone spent last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and Sims was shelved after six appearances with a herniated disc. Both had strong 2020 & 2021 seasons, shining some rays of hope on an otherwise unremarkable group. Getting more innings out of the rotation will take some pressure off of a Cincinnati relief unit that likely does not change much from last year. Successful comeback campaigns from Antone and Sims should fill any high-leverage gaps due to Diaz’ regression.

---

Pittsburgh Pirates 2023 Win Total: Open 62.5, Now 67

2022 Result: Under 64.5 (62-100 / Pythag: 68)

Despite having little in the win column to show for it, this franchise seemingly always has outstanding bright spots on its roster. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneill Cruz, Starling Marte, and Joe Musgrove, just to name a few in recent seasons. Most of Pittsburgh’s shining stars get shipped at some point in their promising careers but this 2023 roster returns a talented core anchored by Bryan Reynolds and the aforementioned Hayes & Cruz. Even the rotation features an up-and-coming Roansy Contreras as a strong contender for the ace role some day soon. Will the front office hold onto this group throughout the season? Are the remaining pieces enough to push the team close to the .500 mark?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• A. McCutcheon (OF)
• R. Hill (LHP – SP)
• C. Joe (OF)
• A. Hedges (C)
• V. Velasquez (RHP)
• J. Garcia (LHP – RP)
• J. Choi (1B)
• D. Moreta (RHP – RP)
• C. Santana (1B)

Subtractions:

• Z. Thompson (RHP – SP)
• K. Newman (SS)
• R. Perez (C)
• J. Marisnick (OF)
• M. Banuelos (LHP – RP)
• B. Gamel (OF)
• Y. Tsutsugo (1B/DH)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 66 – 78

— Position Players —

Ben Cherington and the Pirates front office set out this winter with a goal to prop up their young position player group. Early action addressed first base – a position group that rated worst in the majors last year (-3.0 WAR, 59 wRC+). A rare for Pittsburgh trade reaping instant dividends brought Ji-Man Choi from Tampa Bay to shore up this glaring weak spot. Between Choi and free agents Carlos Santana and Connor Joe, Pittsburgh has platoon support that should deliver 30-40% offensive improvement at this bat-first position.

With first base anchored with veterans the Bucs can afford a little more patience with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and shortstop Oneil Cruz. Hayes’ fielding strengths and Cruz’ freakish speed, power, and arm are tremendous building blocks for the 2023 season. The 26-year-old third baseman’s 2020 rookie outburst spoiled fans. Of course his 682 SLG was tied a little too closely to a .450 BABIP. That was prescient foreshadowing for a more humbling picture. At the plate, that is. Ke’Bryan’s fielding prowess and speed on the base paths make any progress at the plate back towards league-average gravy. 24-year-old Cruz has the raw tools and half season of MLB action, driving expectations for better plate discipline and refinement in the field. Cut down on errors and whiffs to gain a couple more wins of value. Next thing you know, we’re talking about a 6-7 WAR duo on the left side.

Filling In the Gaps

The jury is still out on what inexperienced infielders Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae bring to second base. Early indications point toward a plus-bat situation with flexibility – never a bad thing for a young team on the rise. Plus the Austin Hedges signing helps stabilize the catcher rotation in the absence of quality veteran leadership. The 30-year-old brings much more value with his glove than bat by far, though it’s all just a waiting game for top prospect Endy Rodriguez to make his presence known in the MLB. He should bring a disciplined bat and quality fielding to the majors, helping Hedges add incremental value to this position group. They’re a key element of the Pirates maintaining a neutral overall defensive rating.

Centerfielder Bryan Reynolds’s tough defensive year won’t be missed if when Pittsburgh ultimately deals him to a contender. What they will miss is his 20+ homer, disciplined bat. I have to account for Reynolds to be dealt by the trade deadline even if the club is likely bluffing their position this offseason. I could think of a lot worse ways to bolster this outfield than bringing back Pirates legend Andrew McCutcheon for another go. Cutch still has something in the tank even if he’s no longer the .280 hitter he was five years ago.

Former Rocky Conor Joe adds depth behind a contingent of young outfielders that includes Jack Suwinski and Cal Mitchell, a pair of 24-year-olds fresh off of their MLB debuts. The group goes deeper with Canaan Smith-Njigaba and Travis Swaggerty sharpening their skills in AAA. Smith-Njigaba could impact the lineup at some point this season; Swaggerty looks to be more of a defense-first contributor. Even without switch hitter Bryan Reynolds on the team my offensive adjustments are firmly positive.

— Rotation —

Unlike Cincinnati’s upside taking shape as a talented, young rotation, the Pirates’ cushion centers on their maturing position player corps. Oddly enough, Pittsburgh gained a few wins of value with last year’s rotation. Leading the team was Jose Quintana with a 2.2 WAR in just 20 starts. He’s long gone though. Homegrown talent Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker are the remaining key contributors who fueled those gains in 2022. Keller found a little more velocity with the four-seamer and debuted a quality sinker that helped keep the ball on the ground and slash hard contact. The old Pittsburgh Pirates pitching philosophy still resonates today. Brubaker was not spectacular per se, merely more dependable after shedding brutal home run luck in ’21.

The upper limits of Keller’s and Brubaker’s talent levels may have been reached. Additional value from these two comes in the form of greater workload. It’s a good sign that both went deeper into starts as the 2022 season went on. Mitch was money on the over 15.5 outs prop for a decent stretch late in the season. Likewise, Roansy Contreras can gain another WAR by joining them as a 150+ inning starter. Plus Pittsburgh has 24-year-old Luis Ortiz and 25-year-old former Cardinal Johan Oviedo sharpening in AAA with contribution potential later in the year.

Bring In the Veterans

To avoid a situation where those younger arms are prematurely thrust into action – or force Bryce Wilson back into the mix – the club propped up the rotation with veteran free agents Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. Last year’s rotation struggled to eat innings, in turn calling on question marks with less experience like Wilson and Zach Thompson. Anything could go with a 43-year-old crafty lefty who has topped 140 innings in a season once since 2007. Try to project that!

Vince Velasquez fits more into the swingman type of role at this point in his interesting career. His strikeout rate declined significantly last year and is unlikely to rebound even though the low-90s four-seamer managed to tie up hitters. Vinny has a full five pitches but quantity does not always mean quality. Outing lengths stand as a headwind for him once again, especially if the walks monkey jumps back on his shoulders. It’s a piecemeal rotation, but one that should easily gain an additional over 2022’s.

— Bullpen —

Same goes for the bullpen. Closer David Bednar has been good for the Bucs since coming over from San Diego in exchange for Joe Musgrove. He showed plenty of swing-and-miss action both years with the team but his batted ball numbers were a little more sketchy in ’22 vs. ’21. Make it two straight years of sub-2.7 ERA and FIP from the guy too. Problem is, you can’t count on Bednar contributing his full value for Pittsburgh all season – he’s gonna get traded. That exposes this team’s glaring weakness: a lot of other dudes coming for relief. At least the likes Robert Stephenson, Chase De Jong, Wil Crowe, and Jarlin Garcia can reliably eat innings. Not better, not really worse than last year.

WAGER: (Stale) Pirates Over 62.5 Wins -110 (CZR, 1/12)

You can tell I’m a Reds fan. It took me twice as long to break down a Cincinnati team that I project to finish below the Pirates. The reality of the 2023 Pirates is a floor in the mid 60’s with an outside chance to surprise the Cubs for third place in the NL Central. As far as the futures markets go, my preliminary win total range of 67-74 made Caesars Sportsbook’s 62.5 a go. Caesars still has the lowest total among my accounts but 67 is much riskier even with the Andrew McCutcheon addition in the meantime. There’s still upside leeway if you have confidence in their young players, otherwise, their wide range of outcomes should make this position a wild ride!

---

2023 NL Central Projected Standings

1. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
3. Chicago Cubs (74-88)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92)
5. Cincinnati Reds (62-100)

Two Up, Four To Go!

That’s a wrap on the NL Central. In case you missed it, our AL Central preview dropped last week with a couple of positions that are slipping away as the market adjusts. Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more futures breakdowns, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications: