Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 4-1
Week 1 Recap:
Our week started off nicely as our first official play of the Bills over team total hit giving us a psychological feeling of euphoria starting with a 100% win rate at 1-0. All seriousness, it’s a marathon but always feels good to win after a 7 month hiatus. Things really progressed nicely overall from there leading to a 4-1 opening weekend for us. The Steelers and Bengals game went exactly as we expected with Pittsburgh giving it everything they had ending in a three point final for the cover. The Eagles team total play, one of our top bets of the weekend, cruised to victory almost before the half. The Ravens throttled the Jets offense and did enough to score which also was a relatively smooth cover. Our only miss of the weekend was our teaser that had those Ravens converting, but a whiff with the 49ers at the Bears. We’re fine admitting that this was a bad play, however it’s fair to point out that the game was played in a downpour and slop, something that clearly would favor the lesser team. Despite this, we’re very pleased overall with our week one results.
Week 2 Picks:
Have we seen enough from any teams after just one game to make any sound adjustments to rankings and evaluations? Maybe more importantly, are there any public overreactions to what we saw in week number one? At the end of the day, we’re counting on a little return to the median, particularly with some teams we feel will are quality groups. Five total bets were decided on that feature a blend of totals, first half bets and another listed teaser. It’s becoming more and more critical to pick off the best lines early in the week looking ahead so be sure to check out our thoughts for the upcoming week on Sunday evenings.
Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos
vs. 
Houston Texans (0-0-1) vs. Denver Broncos (0-1)
Sunday September 18th
4:25pm
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Denver Broncos -10 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Both the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos had disappointing finishes in their week one matchups. Houston found a way to compete and hope that their gameplan will travel when they head into a hostile Denver environment. Head coaches Lovie Smith and Nathaniel Hackett each took some criticism for decisions made late in their respective games and hope to redeem themselves in search of win number one.
Give the Houston Texans a lot of credit for battling down to the end with what is mostly a no-name roster across their offense and defense. Davis Mills is essentially auditioning and stating his case to be the team’s permanent quarterback moving forward. Mills has a tough assignment Sunday when he goes on the road to Mile High to face a Broncos defense that is one of the better units in the league. The Texans could have a rough go of it in a noisy stadium without a lot of weapons. Houston will look to run the ball with rookie Dameon Pearce and veteran Rex Burkhead and they’ll need some sort of balance to prohibit the Broncos edge rushers from teeing off against the pass. After a slow start in Seattle, the Denver defense seemed to get it together in the second half and looked like the type of aggressive play-making team with thought they would be. Look for cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Ronald Darby to get some isolated work with a one-high safety look against Brandin Cooks who’s realistically the only true big-play weapon on the Houston offense. The Texans got a spark from newly acquired O.J. Howard, but he won’t sneak up on the Broncos and their dynamic safety duo of Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons. Unless the Texans can run the ball consistently, and even get up early, their offense could be put into some really bad spots at Mile High Stadium.
Much like the defense, it took the Denver offense a while to get into a rhythm in their week one loss in Seattle. It’s understandable when you look back, as the Seahawks were essentially playing their own mini Super Bowl against former franchise leader Russell Wilson. The prized offseason acquisition should find a little more time in the pocket against the Texans, although they’re not completely void of a pass rush. If Houston can get some pressure, it may not be easy for Wilson again, as his receivers will face some talented young players in that secondary. The game plan for the Broncos in this game really needs to be simple. Run, run and more running with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The backs were once again fairly split in their first game and each could potentially end this game with 15+ carries if things go the way they should. The Texans were shredded against the run against the Colts, albeit against one of the top running backs in the league. The Broncos should be able to duplicate that success with both of their runners exhibiting similar characteristics to Taylor in terms of speed and power. Even though you know Denver wants to get Wilson and the passing game going, they need a win a lot more in this matchup, and their best shot at that is with a power running game from start to finish.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 9 of the last 12 games for the Broncos
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 road games for the Texans
The Texans are probably better than most people give them credit for, and the Broncos haven’t proven anything just yet. With that being said, this game is not a great spot for the Texans. They’re on the road against a team they don’t matchup too well with that is hungry for a win. Throw in the fact that after things got settled in week one, the Texans really went backwards and were outplayed despite the score, as the Broncos started to piece it together. If this number was less than 10, and Russell Wilson wasn’t the master at playing close games, we’d probably load up on the Broncos here in an ideal bounce back spot. Instead, we’re going to key in on the Broncos defense and expect them to really put the clamps on the Texans offense making it tough for them to score.
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans – Team Total Under 17.5 (-120)
Broncos 27, Texans 10
Arizona Cardinals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (0-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)
Sunday September 11th
4:25pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
The Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders had eventful offseasons that have not yet translated to wins on the field. Both rosters offer some of the league’s more talented players, however there are some noticeable holes that were exposed in week number one. Statistics don’t lie, and we know that teams who start 1-1 have a much greater chance at making the playoffs than those that start 0-2. Which team will put themselves in a better position after the first two weeks of the season?
Things didn’t go to plan for the Cardinals in their blowout loss to the Chiefs, and there’s no guarantee it’ll get a lot better for them against the Raiders. The Cardinals offense wasn’t terrible, yet it certainly didn’t look great either as the team struggled to get much going on the ground or through the air. The Raiders are similarly constructed defensively as Kansas City, with the biggest difference being their talent is primarily on the edges with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. The Cardinals have an opportunity to exploit this with both James Conner and the running game, and also Kyler Murray’s athleticism. Jones has familiarity with Murray having been his teammate so he’ll have an idea of how to defend him, the question is does he have the speed to stay with him? The Raiders defense did not look disciplined in their week one loss, and if Jones and Crosby get too far upfield, this could be a game where Murray takes control with his legs. In fact, he may not have a choice as no one really stepped up to help Marquise Brown at receiver with the absences of DeAndre Hopkins and the injured Rondale Moore. Tight end Zach Ertz can also be the guy to take away some pressure, although he’s dealing with some injuries as well.
Speaking of dealing with injuries, or just overall holes in the roster, the Cardinals secondary is really not in a great spot entering this game. That’s never a good thing, and when you’re lining up across from a trio of Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfroe it’s an even scarier proposition. Quarterback Derek Carr wasted no time getting Davante Adams incorporated into the offense as he was targeted a whopping 17 times in their first action together. As phenomenal as Adams is, you have to wonder if it wasn’t a little too much, knowing he had some favorable matchups with Waller and Renfroe as well. Expect Carr to spread it out a little more in this game with what is a really thin Arizona secondary. The Cardinals really need J.J. Watt back in the lineup not only for his leadership and hustle, but also for his ability to help against the run and in the pass rush. Watt is clearly no longer the elite talent that he was early in his career, but when he’s not on the field, this defense looks absolutely lost.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 12 of the last 17 games for the Raiders at home
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games between the Cardinals and Raiders
Taking a side in this game leads us towards the Arizona Cardinals at first glance. However, this should be a high scoring game, and it’s certainly possible that the Raiders could stretch out a lead here. We’re again looking at the total in a game where we see two pretty good offenses, and two pretty bad defenses. We’re expecting the Raiders to put up a lot of points at home, and the Cardinals to at least stay in the game for a while, or even be up late. Add it up and we’ve got a potential for two teams to end up in the 30’s or at least high 20’s. We’ll take a shot with the over and hope the Cardinals don’t mail it in if they get too far behind.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 51
Raiders 31, Cardinals 27
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
Chicago Bears (1-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-1)
Sunday September 18th
8:20pm
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -10 (-110)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
The NFL’s longest rivalry fires back up when the Chicago Bears make the familiar trip to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Chicao managed to score a home upset in a rainy week one contest with the 49ers, while the Packers were thoroughly outplayed by the Minnesota Vikings. Throughout his career, Aaron Rodgers has had very little trouble with the Bears, as even he will publicly state in the end zone of Soldier Field. Have the Bears done enough to catch up to what some believe is a faltering Green Bay team, or was opening weekend simply a “one-off” for both teams?
They say that a win is a win, and if you’re the Chicago Bears of recent, you’ll take them any way you can get them.. The Bears offense looked pretty poor as we expected in their week one contest, before busting a couple of big plays to sneak away with a win in the elements. There’s no sense in taking anything away from what they earned there, however you simply have to look deeper here. They didn’t run the ball well, and had it not been for those broken plays, the overall yardage would have been pretty pathetic as a whole. Things get tougher in Green Bay as they won’t have the comfort of home, an opponent with a rookie quarterback, or an undisciplined secondary. Add in the fact that this Packers team was embarrassed in week one and they could come out punching on both sides of the ball. The Bears offensive line is going to struggle with the Packers front seven in the passing game at a minimum, and possibly in run-blocking as well. Justin Fields is going to have to make some plays with his legs for sure, as he’s not yet advanced enough to throw into the tight coverage spots he’s sure to see with the Green Bay secondary. The corners and safeties for the Packers have to be chomping at the bit to get their hands on some passes. Look for Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry to try to disguise some coverages and force the young QB into some mistakes. Despite a rough day against the Vikings, the Packers defense wasn’t actually terrible. In a lot of instances they were simply beaten by All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson. The Bears can’t offer up any mismatches there, so the pendulum should definitely swing back in the other direction.
Early in their loss to the Vikings we watched Aaron Rodgers drop a perfect throw into the basket of Christian Watson deep down the field that went through the youngster’s hands. Immediately the concern about not having a more proven group of wide receivers was revisited and rightly so. In addition to the questions at receiver, the Packers offensive line didn’t look good as they’re still banged up and thinner than they’ve been in recent years. They matchup better against the Bears however, who don’t have the pure rushers on the edge with the exception of Robert Quinn. Look for tight end help on Quinn and Rodgers to do some more short passing to the backs and receivers. The team is hopeful that Allen Lazard can return to make his debut, offering Rodgers a familiar target that he can trust. The key for Green Bay this season, and certainly in this game is for them to run the football. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon both had their moments in the opener, and should be able to attack this Bears defense. Chicago was getting run on against the Niners before Eli Mitchell exited with an MCL injury, and the backs in GB are more proven than Mitchell at this point. Expect Rodgers to have more comfort and better command of the offense at home with a week to assess what he needs to do differently.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Packers
– The Bears are 0-6 straight up in their last 6 road games vs. the Packers
– The Packers are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 regular season home games
It’s probably a bit of stubbornness on our part, and it cost us in week one, but we’re all aboard the fade the Chicago Bears train. We’re going to try to fade them again facing Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau off of a blowout loss. In truth, if Davante Adams were on the Packers we’d probably be willing to lay 17 points here and still feel decent. We’re taking a slightly different angle though to both get a more manageable number, and to protect against the backdoor cover. We’re looking at a first half bet here expecting the Packers to come out strong and take a solid lead into halftime. Let’s see what this Green Bay team is made of.
BetCrushers Take: Green Bay Packers -6.5 First Half (-110)
Packers 24, Bears 13
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Washington Commanders (1-0) vs. Detroit Lions (0-1)
Sunday September 18th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
You’re not imaging things here with the BetCrushers, we’re featuring the Detroit Lions for a second consecutive week with a wager. The Lions get another home game as they host the 1-0 Washington Commanders who rallied to come back in the 4th quarter against an up to the challenge Jacksonville Jaguar team. While it’s unlikely these teams will be hosting playoff games in January, this game could have a lot of importance when the last couple of wild card spots are handed out at the end of the season.
The Washington Commanders knew what they were signing up for when they brought Carson Wentz over to play quarterback, and it was pretty much all on display in their week one win. Wentz made some nice deep throws and was elusive in the pocket, but also had a couple of interceptions and missed some open passes. There should be a lot more where that came from against a Lions defense that had some challenges in their game with the Eagles. The Commanders offensive line is really a key here as Carson Wentz is less likely to make mistakes when he has time to throw. That sentence is true for all quarterbacks, and holds particular true for Wentz. Jeff Okudah does not appear ready to be a steady corner, and the Commanders suddenly have what appears to be three capable receivers with a healthy Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson joining Terry McLaurin. Unless the Lions can generate a fierce pass rush, look for another big yardage day from Wentz and the passing game. Washington should also be able to run on the Lions, especially if they’re able to keep the safeties back to take away the speed on the outside.
After a slow start at quarterback, Jared Goff picked it up and did some nice things for the Lions in their comeback attempt last weekend. We’ve learned at this point that Goff can be an effective player if he’s in the perfect bubble situation as he was early in his LA Rams career. The Lions have set him up similarly in Detroit which is why this offence can be successful. First things first, the Lions have some injury concerns on the left side of their offensive line and with running back D’Andre Swift going into the game. If those injuries mount up, Goff suddenly becomes a lot more limited, and even a large liability at that point. If those guys can go, they’ll do fine against what is an overrated Washington defense. When healthy, the Lions boast a top three or four offensive line in the league and they can control the Commanders front that is still missing Chase Young. Even with the other three first round picks, this group has not generated a great pass rush and is mediocre at stopping the run. That makes what is also an average secondary look even worse at times. We’re planning to see a lot of Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson running open and making plays, especially if Swift is healthy and providing a balanced running attack.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The Commanders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Lions
The injury news for the Lions is a bit concerning and ultimately why we aren’t playing a side here. The public seems a little enamored with the Commanders as they seem to draw a perception of being a complete and balanced team. This is a game that the Lions know they can win, and they should win when it’s all said and done. Much like the Arizona and Las Vegas matchup, this seems to be two offenses that are drastically ahead of their defenses. As a result another total seems to be the better play as opposed to picking a side in this one. We’ll hope the Lions offensive line and D’Andre Swift are ready to go and fire on another over.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 48.5
Lions 30, Commanders 28
Teaser Bet
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
Sunday September 18th
4:25pm
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (Even)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
New York Jets (0-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-0)
Sunday September 18th
1:00pm
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Bengals -1.5 and Browns -.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys each had disappointing losses in week number one. Cincinnati is poised to rebound, while Dallas was left deflated after a lackluster performance and a serious hand injury to quarterback Dak Prescott. On the east coast, the Cleveland Browns came away with a late win and have their home opener against New York Jets team that looked uninspired in their loss to the Ravens. The favorites in Cincinnati and Cleveland need wins in what will be a competitive AFC North, while the Cowboys and Jets are hopeful their seasons aren’t over before we hit the middle of October.
As easy as it can be to poke fun at the Dallas Cowboys, you have to feel for any team that loses it’s quarterback in week one. After a long offseason, any realistic fan realizes that the Cowboys will not be a playoff team this year, and quite frankly are one of the weaker teams in the league. They looked bad even with Dak behind a depleted offensive line. CeeDee Lamb may not be the number one wide receiver we thought as it’s possible he’s more suited to be a number two guy who isn’t drawing all of the attention of the opponent. With Cooper Rush now at the helm, it’s going to be a lot to ask against a Bengals defense that has some players at all three levels. Dallas needs to really open the playbook up and get creative if they’re going to put some points up on Sunday. On the other side, after a horrendous start, the Bengals offense finally got some things going against the Steelers in their opening day loss. It’s understandable that a team has to knock some rust off when they haven’t played all preseason, and that includes quarterback Joe Burrow. The young gunslinger was under pressure as his newly built offensive line wasn’t quite up to par against a strong Steeler pass rush. While Micah Parson will produce some havoc, and Demarcus Lawrence is still there, it’s very apparent that this Cowboys defense doesn’t have a lot more to offer. Even if Tee Higgins missing the game in concussion protocol, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd should give the Bengals enough in the passing game. And oh by the way, they’re going to run with Joe Mixon, and maybe run a lot. Leonard Fournette had a career rushing day in their matchup against Dallas, and the Bengals team is very similarly built to Tampa Bay.
The Cowboys aren’t the only team forced to play a backup quarterback as the Jets will once again be without Zach Wilson and starting Joe Flacco under center. Don’t be surprised if we see Mike White, as the angry fans in New Jersey requested during a subpar performance from Flacco at home. Flacco faces an even better overall defense on the road when they head to Cleveland, and Jets fans may be frustrated again. The Browns were able to shut down the run pretty effectively against the Panthers and should be able to do the same against the Jets. Their battered offensive line and young running backs simply won’t be able to do enough to keep them from getting into third and long type situations. The Browns defense is built for those moments, and Joe Flacco is not a quarterback with the ability to escape. The fans at Cleveland are going to be loud and fired up, and that’s going to cause problems for the Jets offense. Flipping to the other side, it’s really all about the Browns doing what they want to do, which is running the football. They’re going to push their offensive line against the large interior for the Jets and try to wear them down with their bruising running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. If that doesn’t happen early, it will happen later in the game, as long as they’re not trailing. The formula for quarterback Jacoby Brissett is pretty simple and has been what it has been for most of his career. Don’t turn the ball over and manage the game. If that happens here, the Browns will come away with a win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jets are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games
– The Jets are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Bengal are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
Taking a road team in a teaser handed us our only loss in week one, and here we go again repeating history. This one is really simple though, it’s just damn near impossible that the Bengals are going to lose to this Dallas Cowboys team with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Rush isn’t a horrible backup, it’s really more about the rest of the Dallas team, and a rebound for a Bengals team that started to figure it out against the Steelers in the second half of their game. We’re expecting a low scoring affair, as the sportsbooks are in Cleveland where the Jets simply won’t be able to put up enough points to win. That game could be closer than many expect, however the Browns should be able to hold serve at home and come away with a win.
