BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 7-7
JJ – 11-3
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 57-48-1
JJ – 55-50-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
Week 8 in the NFL was pretty good for the BetCrushers overall and that includes our leans and breakdown for every game segment. While Yanni stayed treading water with a 7-7 week JJ was absolutely en fuego hitting 11-3 against the spread. His impressive week puts him five games above .500 on the season as the BetCrushers team is collectively in the black for the season as we near the halfway point. Evaluating what we had correct and where we missed last week there was a lot more to pleased about than to be disappointed in. The three games that tripped us both up were the Bears, the 49ers and the Eagles disaster on Sunday Night Football. We’ve been able to lock in on both the dynamics of certain teams and finding the right value in the spreads which should provide another fruitful week of evaluations. Let’s get started.
vs. 
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-6) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-2)
Thursday – October 24th – 8:20pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -17
Over/Under: 42
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 57%
The Breakdown:
The bookend featured games to start and end week eight leave quite a bit to be desired as the country is treated to the Redskins traveling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings on Thursday night. The spread for this game opened up with the Vikings as 16 point favorites which could be some foreshadowing to the competitiveness, or lack thereof to what may happen in this one.
Interim head coach Bill Callahan had the Redskins fighting hard against a tough San Francisco team and there were some positives they can take away from their rain-soaked loss. The defense played hard, and the Skins’ were able to get Adrian Peterson and their running game going despite the challenge. They’ll look to do the same Thursday as Peterson returns to Minnesota to face his old team in a game that you know means a lot to him. It won’t be easy as the purple gang has been pretty strong against the run ranking 7th in the league. If the Redskins struggle running which is very likely it’ll go to another player making their return in quarterback Case Keenum. Keenum was absolutely miserable in the rain against the 49ers and was unable to get anything going. The Redskins offense doesn’t really stack up well against anyone, and that might even be more so the case against this Vikings team that will get pressure and can lock down number one receivers. With the noise in the dome, the Vikings defensive line could overwhelm the Redskins offensive line which could make for a lot of turnovers and a long night in Keenum’s return.
Adam Thielen will not be available in the game for the Vikings which will slow them down just a bit in terms of what they’ll want to do in this game. Overall, that won’t be enough to really hamper what they’ll be able to accomplish in terms of executing their game plan. Dalvin Cook is having about as good of a season as any player in the league and this is a showcase game where he will show the rest of the NFL what kind of player he really is. He will be the focal point of the offense and you can expect for him to see the ball from start to finish here. Minnesota’s offensive line has played really well this season and will need to continue that against an underrated Redskins defensive front to keep Cook moving and to continue to give Cousins time to throw. Speaking of Cousins, he has been absolutely on fire over the past three weeks playing as well as any quarterback in the league. The absence of Thielen will slow things down a little, but he still has enough weapons around him to make the plays needed for the Vikings to get the win.
Cousins and the Vikings have been absolutely dominant at home and face a Redskins team with very little to play for on a short week. This certainly has all of the makings of a game that could get out of hand really quickly and end up 40-3. Even with all of the odds stacked against them, it’s not impossible that the Redskins could at least make this somewhat of a ballgame. It’s highly unlikely that they’ll be able to compete or come away with a win, but with a point spread like this one, you’ll really want to consider taking that chunk and hoping a return for Keenum and Peterson can keep them competitive.
Yanni’s Pick – Redskins +17 (Vikings 30, Redskins 16)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -17 (Vikings 34, Redskins 13)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-2) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-6)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -7
Over/Under: 53
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 63%
The Breakdown:
Some high flying birds on the west coast and some grounded flyers on the east coast collide in a game that should have a lot of scoring at the very least, if not a lot of competitiveness. Each team is coming off of a loss, and the Seahawks are looking to rebound, while the Falcons are simply trying to avoid continuing in the downward spiral that they’ve been mired in all season.
There were some uncharacteristic mistakes and turnovers made by Russell Wilson a week ago in a rare home loss to the Ravens. He’ll be looking to rebound against the Falcons defense that has made every quarterback they’ve faced this season look like a Pro Bowler. Wilson will cause the usual headaches for Atlanta, however it’s Chris Carson that could be in line for a big day in the running game. Carson’s steady play has given the Seahawks the balance they’ve lacked since Marshawn Lynch left the organization and and will play a big part in their game this week. Seattle shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball as Tyler Lockett should continue his productive season and Jaron Brown and D.K. Metcalf could both find some nice opportunities as well. One thing to watch for the Hawks’ is how Wilson will respond to losing Will Dissly at tight end. It’s only been a week since Dissly was lost to IR, however it did seem to have some impact on the offense particularly on third downs and in the red zone. That could end up being one of the quieter, yet more costly injuries that a team has to deal with this year.
The Falcons offense is certainly not the reason the team is 1-6 even though they have only played what most would consider average football. This week is not shaping up well for them for a variety of reasons. First and foremost it’s very possible that Matt Ryan will not be able to go in this game as he’s dealing with an ankle injury. With the season basically already over there doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason to rush him back out onto the field if he’s not ready. If Ryan can’t go this offense could really go into neutral or possibly even reverse especially if the offensive line can’t do better than what they’ve shown the past couple of weeks. Speaking of going in reverse, the Falcons started their fire sale unloading underappreciated Mohammed Sanu to the Patriots on Tuesday in a move that makes sense, but certainly doesn’t help their team in the interim. If you want to try to find a bright spot it’s that Calvin Ridley should get some more attention in this offense, something that hasn’t happened much this season. It’s way too early to call Ridley a bust, particularly as he’s had some big games as a Falcon, however, you have to think the Falcons organization and most people in the league expected more than what he’s delivered so far this year. I suppose if we’re mentioning bright spots we should also bring up Austin Hooper who continues to put up really productive numbers and make plays every week. The Seahawks have struggled defending the tight end position so this is one area where the Falcons actually have an advantage on Sunday. Unfortunately for them, this may be the only area where they’ll have a clear advantage in the matchups. It was brought up that Seattle struggles on defense against mobile quarterbacks, as evidenced by what Lamar Jackson did to them last week, but they won’t have to worry about that problem no matter which Matt is playing QB for Atlanta.
In year’s past one of the things you could really count on in the NFL betting world was the following. The Falcons and Seahawks were probably the biggest example of teams that were great at home and not so great on the road. You’d be crazy to take Seattle at Atlanta no matter what the spread was and who was playing quarterback. This ain’t a couple of years ago and these teams aren’t the same, nor is their home/road discrepancy. The Seahawks tend to be one of those teams that are always in a field goal fourth quarter type game, but don’t be shocked if they take it to the Falcons this week.
Yanni’s Pick – Seahawks -7 (Seahawks 34, Falcons 24)
JJ’s Pick – Seahawks -7 (Seahawks 28, Falcons 20)
vs.
DENVER BRONCOS (2-5) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-2)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Colts -5
Over/Under: 42.5
Public Money Percentage: Indianapolis 69%
The Breakdown:
There was some strange hype around Denver a week ago that we weren’t buying into and were able to cash in as they laid an egg against a resurgent Chiefs team even after losing their leader in the first quarter. Joe Flacco took over the role of Kirk Cousins as new QB whipping boy for the week as his horrendous play in primetime was called out by Troy Aikman in the booth and anybody with a Twitter account. While it’s reasonable to figure the Denver offense will have a little more life and Flacco will rebound with a stronger performance, it isn’t exactly easy sledding for the guys in orange traveling to Indianapolis. The Colts defense got their leader back in Darius Leonard and played a really sound game against a team that had been scorching on offense. Denver traded away local favorite Emmanuel Sanders and it appears they’re unofficially giving up on this season, which probably is a wise decision. One of two things tend to happen when that takes place: Guys fight for their jobs and their coach and play a heck of a lot harder and better, or they start thinking about where they’re going to be taking a vacation after Christmas. We won’t know that until the game is played, but either way this is a game the Colts defense should dominate in. It will be tough for Denver to get their running game going which will put extra pressure on Flacco who now has one capable receiver on the outside rather than two. As has been the case with the Denver offense regularly this season, you might see a lot of three and outs and punts.
It finally came to light after Sunday that Jacoby Brissett is playing really good football at the quarterback position, and is clearly not just a game manager. He is making good decisions and accurate throws into tight windows and spreading the ball around open receivers after going through his progressions. Just like Flacco he’ll have to be on his game Sunday as Denver has played well against the pass all season. After a hot start Marlon Mack has slowed down a bit and this looks like the type of game where he might be able to regain the momentum he had after the first couple weeks of the season. The Colts offensive line continues to play well and they match up nicely against the Broncos defense. Eric Ebron came through with an amazing touchdown reception last week and this could be a spot where he and Jack Doyle are key contributors again with T.Y. Hilton likely matched up with Chris Harris, Jr. These teams actually share some similarities and the difference here comes down to a few things by our analysis. First, Jacoby Brissett is clearly a better quarterback than Joe Flacco and the Colts are just simply a notch better at nearly every position on the field. Throw in the homefield advantage for Indy and this is a game they’ll find a way to win.
This will be a true test for what to expect out of the Broncos for the remainder of the season. If they come out fighting they’ll be a team that should be competitive going forward. If they sleepwalk through this game and get beaten down again, you can probably fade them the rest of the way out.
Yanni’s Pick – Colts -5 (Colts 27, Broncos 20)
JJ’s Pick – Colts -5 (Colts 27, Broncos 18)
vs.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-4) at TENNESSEE TITANS (3-4)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Titans -2.5
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Tampa Bay 53%
The Breakdown:
There’s a such thing as being on the cusp of elimination even this early in the season and both Tampa Bay and Tennessee fall into this category as the percentages of making the playoffs fall drastically down with a loss based on where they currently sit. The Titans change at quarterback results in a win a week ago, while Tampa is hoping they won’t need to make a quarterback change in the near future.
Anytime TB quarterback Jameis Winston is involved in a play it has the chance to go sideways in a bad way with interceptions and turnovers. The Buccaneers breakdowns are almost always the same: Take care of the football and come away with a win, turn it over and leave with a loss, and sometimes a really ugly loss at that. Winston is coming off one of those “oof” games where he turned the ball over repeatedly which would make anyone question betting on his team, especially on the road against a quality defense. We’re looking at the Jameis rollercoaster and banking on the fact that he’ll rebound with a more stable performance versus a team that seems to play everyone close. The fact of the matter is when you take Winston out of the equation, Tampa Bay is far superior on the offensive side of the ball and will look to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to continue to make big plays for them. One thing you can say about Winston is no matter what has happened he’ll still push the ball downfield, which as a fan you generally like, although it can be nerve wracking with money on the line. O.J. Howard will be sitting this game out as he may be in another uniform before the trade deadline, but this is actually a positive for Winston and the Bucs offense as we’ll see Cameron Brate a lot more who Winston has always had a good connection with.
Just as we have the standard breakdown with Tampa Bay, you can look at Tennessee in a very similar light. Get Derrick Henry and the running game wearing down the opposing defense and good things tend to happen. The Tampa Bay defense has been extremely stingy defensively against the run allowing just 2.9 yards per carry and leading the league at an impressive 68 yards per game. If this trend can continue that will put the game in the hands of now starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who won his first game after taking over for the benched Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is no doubt one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league as he has some nice experience, a solid skill set, and some wins during his stint with the Dolphins. The fact of the matter is that Tannehill is really just that, a backup quarterback and stop-gap player, not a true franchise player. Can he beat Tampa Bay in a home game if he plays a solid football game? The answer to that is yes he absolutely can and Vegas seems to think that he will. The bigger question if you tease Tampa Bay is can he beat a good defense by more than a touchdown? Our answer to that is we certainly don’t think so. This is actually a great spot to play Tampa Bay as an underdog on the moneyline as it’s very possible that Tampa squeezes out a road victory here. If you don’t have the confidence in doing that, take those extra six points as you may need them.
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers +2.5 (Buccaneers 27, Titans 24)
JJ’s Pick – Buccaneers +2.5 (Buccaneers 21, Titans 20)
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-3-1) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-1)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Saints -11
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 51%
The Breakdown:
New Orleans welcomes the Arizona Cardinals to the dome looking to remain one of the leagues most dominant teams despite the continued absence of their leader Drew Brees. To say that the Saints defense and complimentary players have stepped up would be a huge understatement and they’ll be ready for the somewhat surprising Cardinals visit.
Don’t look now but Arizona has suddenly found a ground game behind second year back Chase Edmonds who found paydirt three times a week ago in their win. David Johnson is a game-time decision yet it most likely is going to be a struggle for whoever lines up in the Arizona backfield as the Saints have really shut down opposing running backs this season. That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Kyler Murray in what promises to be a typically noisy environment with a fired up fanbase hungry to keep winning. Murray continues to have some ups and downs as you’d expect from a rookie but this team absolutely believe that he gives them a chance to win every week. While the Cards’ picked up some big plays in the running game, they have struggled in recent weeks to find big plays in the passing game. The Saints do have an aggressive secondary so it’s not impossible to beat them deep, but they have been rock solid since Brees went down. Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t really made Kyler Murray running a big piece of their offensive gameplan as you can understand and it’s unlikely he’d do that here either. If the Cardinals want to spring a big upset it would seem that Murray would absolutely need to make some things happen with his legs and not just in a traditional drop back passing fashion.
It’s pretty wild that Michael Thomas is putting up some of his best numbers without Brees tossing the rock to him. It really speaks to how Teddy Bridgewater has been able to not only manage the game efficiently, but also get the ball to his best players. Speaking of which the Saints should welcome back Alvin Kamara after missing last week’s match, although Latavius Murray filled in pretty admirably in his absence. This certainly seems like the kind of game where if Sean Payton can stay disciplined, that the Saints could really just run at Arizona for four quarters and leave with a win. The Saints have a clear advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and with Arizona having to travel across the country this will show up in the second half at the very least.
This New Orleans Saints team is really good and is probably the best team in the very competitive NFC, with all due respect to the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. They shouldn’t have too much trouble winning this game and will keep themselves in the conversation for Super Bowl contenders. Although this isn’t necessarily a tough game to break down in terms of the game flow and matchups, it is difficult to determine if the Saints will be able to blow the Cardinals out or if this game stays a little closer. With a spread in the double digits you always have to be wary of the late backdoor cover as well. We’re spectating on this one, best of luck if you’re playing it.
Yanni’s Pick – Cardinals +11 (Saints 27, Cardinals 19)
JJ’s Pick – Saints -11 (Saints 34, Cardinals 17)
vs. 
CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-7) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-3)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Game played at Wembley Stadium – London
Spread: Rams -13.5
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 70%
The Breakdown:
Another edition in the London series pairs two teams that are trending in different directions after last week. The Los Angeles Rams got healthy against a swiss cheese Atlanta Falcon defense, while the Cincinnati Bengals are still searching for their first win under head coach Zac Taylor.
Even though we’ve discussed the Bengals shortcomings on the offensive line, it’s worth repeating just how poor their group up front is. The Bengal’s fanbase likes to point the finger at Andy Dalton, yet all you need to do is look at their running backs Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard to see how badly they’re getting dominated up front. That doesn’t bode well when you’re lining up against a guy named Aaron Donald and facing some capable pass rushers like Dante Fowler, Jr. off of the edge. With new Ram addition Jalen Ramsey likely getting the assignment against Tyler Boyd it’s really difficult to see where the Bengals are going to be able to generate offense still minus A.J. Green and John Ross. The LA defense has not played as well overall as you’d expect although that will likely change with that addition of Ramsey. Having a game changing player at the back end of the defense to pair with Aaron Donald in the front four allows the Rams to really be creative with how they want to scheme against teams, and particularly limited teams like the Bengals.
On defense the Bengals are missing some key players in their secondary as well as Dre Kirkpatrick won’t suit up and they’re already thin in the back. Again, that isn’t a good recipe against a team with three really solid receivers in Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp. Jared Goff has not played great football this season at all, however he really won’t need to in this one as his playmakers should be able to do the work for him and they most likely won’t need to put up a lot of points. Todd Gurley had a nice touchdown catch a week ago and the Rams are hopeful that the offense is starting resemble what they thought it would be consistently under Sean McVay. Gurley’s backup Malcolm Brown is not making the trip overseas so we’ll get a look at rookie Darrell Henderson who could find a way to shine a bit against a team that cannot stop the run.
This game is just a flat out mismatch both from a skill standpoint and where these teams are headed mentally which is reflected in the near two touchdown spread. The point spread as always is the great equalizer and the public has to decide if this game is a complete blowout or if the Bengals can keep it semi-competitive. The BetCrushers are split on this game which tells you what we think the viability of wagering on it is.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -13.5 (Rams 34, Bengals 14)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals +13.5 (Rams 27, Bengals 20)
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4) at BUFFALO BILLS (5-1)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Bills -1.5
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 51%
The Breakdown:
Every season there seems to be one team that has some internal issues that tend to turn into a massive explosion in the locker room. At least based on what we’ve heard since the Eagles beating they took at the hands of their rivals in Dallas it seems to be the boys in Philly. They’ll travel to take on a surprising 5-1 Buffalo Bills team in a game that the most savvy sports psychologist would have trouble analyzing.
To say that the Eagles are a bit dysfunctional heading into the weekend would be putting it very mildly. Continued bickering of current and former players and finger pointing is a little surprising for a team that has some veteran players that you would think could provide some stability and leadership. There is one simple question in this game, and that is can this Eagles team come together and use this as fuel to build on the second half of the season, or is the damage too irreparable for them to overcome? Offensively, they’ll again be without their field stretcher DeSean Jackson which is one of the biggest scheme adjusters that defensive coordinators have to plan for in the league. The Bills defense has been strong and will look to keep the Eagles offense in neutral but getting after Carson Wentz and locking down his top weapons, something Dallas did masterfully last weekend. Don’t be too judgmental on that Philly offense though as the turnovers put them in an early hole in a spot that they weren’t going to be able to overcome. We’d imagine Doug Pederson will have a good game plan that probably is focused on quick passes and a power running game putting his big offensive line in a spot to be physical rather than try to fight the speed of the Bills defensive line. Whether or not Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders can get traction in the running will play a huge factor in how many points the Eagles can score in this game.
If you’re an Eagles fan looking for any glimmer of sunshine it’s that defensively they may have a shot to hold a team down against this Buffalo offense. The Bills O is predicated on running the ball between the tackles and using timely plays in the passing game and quarterback Josh Allen’s legs when needed to move the sticks. The Eagles defense has the ability to really slow down the Bills running game and force Josh Allen to beat their much maligned secondary. So far most teams have been able to beat that secondary so this will be a big test for Allen and the Bills to see if they can adjust their plan to attack the weakness of Philadelphia, or if they’ll stubbornly try to force their will onto the Philly defensive line, which is their strength defensively, even as banged up as they are. When you check out the box score after the game, if you see Bills wide receiver John Brown with 6+ catches and over 100 yards you can almost guarantee that meant the Bills won the game. If that doesn’t happen, the Eagles may have salvaged their season and come away with an important road win.
This is the simplest, yet hardest game to handicap of the weekend due to the fact the psychology of the Eagles is going to either help guide them to a spirited win, or rip them apart into another bad loss. There is almost no way to know for sure which direction that is going to go so we’d strongly advise staying away from this game no matter how much you want to evaluate trends and statistics.
Yanni’s Pick – Eagles +2 (Eagles 24, Bills 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bills -2 (Bills 23, Eagles 20)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-5) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-3)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Bears -4
Over/Under: 41
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 52%
The Breakdown:
We’ll be the first to admit that having a wager in a game involving the Chargers or the Bears kicks up the anxiety level to another notch. We all know that scared money doesn’t make money so we’re inclined to follow the matchups and trends and take a stand in what’s realistically a do-or-die game for both of these teams. Chicago has the homefield advantage and is a healthier squad, while the Chargers have a clear advantage at the skill positions on the field. Both have been playing poorly against the spread and in general so something has got to give.
There was a comment made on Sunday Night Football that last week’s game with LA and Tennessee was the most “Chargerist” of Charger finishes as the team blew a sure tie and multiple wins and ultimately came away with the loss in one of the more bizarre finishes you’ll see in an NFL contest. That one sentence symbolizes our entire play on this game which we’ll elaborate on in a minute. Let’s first take a look at this Chargers offense that has been “clunky” to say the least since the return of Melvin Gordon. Anthony Lynn and staff have yet to figure out how to work the backfield and Gordon has struggled averaging only 2.3 yards per carry and actually admitted that his holdout really hindered where he and the team are this season. It sounds crazy when you think of going against the Chicago defense, but this could be a great spot for both Gordon and Austin Ekeler as the Bears have really had issues stopping the run as the loss of Akiem Hicks is really hurting their muscle in the interior. The Chargers also get a big boost as OT Russell Okung will be back in the lineup providing a nice improvement and veteran presence on the line. It’s hard to know exactly how effective he’ll be as he’s getting his legs under him, yet you’d have to believe anything would be an upgrade over what they’ve had on the left side of their line. Assuming the Chargers can get at least a little bit going on the ground the table is set for Philip Rivers to make the plays needed that you expect from a quarterback with his longevity and tenacity. The Bears thrive off turnovers so this is a spot where Rivers needs to take what the defense gives him and not force anything that can set the Bears up with a short field.
If you’ve been following the Bears at all this year you might be a little surprised to find that they’re 29th in total offense and not dead last in the league. (Don’t forget there is a team in Miami and the Jets were starting a guy named Luke Falk for a while). They’ll try again to make some things happen against a Los Angeles defense that has not looked nearly as good as their 11th overall ranking would lead you to believe. There is absolutely one certain key for the Bears on offense against LA and that is they must get their running game working to get their offense going over all. Fortunately for them the Chargers have been even worse at stopping the run coming in at 27th overall, so this should give Chicago a chance to get physical early. We’ve seen Mitchell Trubisky struggle mightily and that seems to be exaggerated when they don’t have any semblance of a running game. What better way to slow down the Charger pass rush than by establishing a power running game in the first half?
KEY STATS – The Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games
You’ve got to know when to selectively make risky plays in NFL wagering and there is no question that whichever team you check the box with here is a little risky. We mentioned we’d revisit the sentence of last week being the most “Chargerist” thing of all in their wild finish against the Titans. That is exactly why we’re going to play the number and take the 4 points with Los Angeles. This game has “Charger” written all over it, which means they’re going to be in it until the end. We don’t have a crystal ball but this just seems like one of those finishes with LA misses a field goal at the end to win or something along those lines. Before you tail on this wager you may want to make your own decisions based on the Chargers injury report as Melvin Ingram and Keenan Allen are both questionable in addition to several players already ruled out. We’re closing our eyes, crossing our fingers and hoping for a Charger cover Sunday.
Yanni’s Pick – Chargers +4 (Bears 22, Chargers 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bears -4 (Bears 24, Chargers 17)
vs. 
NEW YORK GIANTS (2-5) at DETROIT LIONS (2-3-1)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Detroit Lion -7
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: Detroit 54%
The Breakdown:
Everything about the New York Giants and Detroit Lions Sunday contest seems to feel very average. Unless you’re a fan of one of these teams this doesn’t carry the designation of one of the more exciting games of the week. As is the case with a few of the others this week, this game is really a critical win or loss if either team hopes to keep their season alive.
After a quick earning of his nickname Danny Dimes, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has seemingly hit the proverbial rookie wall. The last few weeks has shown that the promising future leader of this team has a ways to go in terms of reading coverages, making sound decisions and taking care of the football. He’ll have some things working in his favor in Detroit as he looks to get his team back in the win column. The return of Saquon Barkley is obviously huge as he will see a lot of touches this week against a team that has struggled at times to contain dynamic running backs. With Darius Slay out again and Quandre Diggs recently shipped off in a trade, the secondary for the Lions is thin and vulnerable in the passing game. If the Giants can give Jones time to throw and he does not turn the ball over they have a legitimate shot to win this road contest.
Equally having a good matchup is Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense as they’ll face a Giants defense that has played a little better of late, but is still struggling overall. Stafford has his full array of weapons on the outside so he’ll look to push the ball down the field, and if the Giants can’t generate a pass rush it could be a long day for them. Detroit was hit with another disappointing loss as their young running back Kerryon Johnson was lost for the season after sustaining a knee and ankle injuries a week ago. This team truly feels jinxed when it comes to being able to solidify the running back position and running game in general. Stafford could wind up throwing the ball a lot in this game so daily fantasy players may want to look in his direction if you’re looking for a slightly under the radar quarterback.
The Lions are at home against an inferior team so they should end up coming away with a win, although the key word in that sentence is “should”. This game has the possibility of being close down the stretch and with the Giants getting a touchdown or close to in most books it’s too tough to pass up taking the points. There’s also a good chance that a lot of touchdowns are scored so the over is something you might want to consider here as well.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants +7 (Lions 31, Giants 27)
JJ’s Pick – Giants +7 (Lions 27, Giants 23)
vs. 
NEW YORK JETS (1-5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-4)
Sunday – October 27th – 1:00pm
Spread: Jaguars -7
Over/Under: 41
Public Money Percentage: Jaguars 51%
The Breakdown:
Gardner Minshew weighed in on ESPN airing Sam Darnold’s seeing ghost comments and he fully supported Darnold and the Jets showing how tight the NFL fraternity of quarterbacks really is. This week the two will face off in Jacksonville as eyes will be on Darnold to see how he rebounds, while Minshew wants to be certain to keep his job with the coming return of veteran Nick Foles.
It was tough to imagine the Jets offense being worse than they were with Luke Falk as their starting quarterback, but we saw first hand what Bill Belichek and the Patriots defense can do to a young signal caller. If it weren’t for some continued hard running from LeVeon Bell the offense would have been completely non existent. Fortunately for Darnold and the Jets they’ll have a little easier go of it against the Jaguars who have been pretty average on defense, especially against the pass. That’s not to suggest things will be easy for NY as the Jags’ have proven they can still collect sacks in bunches and create timely turnovers in key situations. The first thing the Jets need to do is play better on the offensive line, both to keep Bell going strong and to give Darnold the time he needs to actually see 11 men on defense which we imagine will make him play quite a bit better. With Jalen Ramsey now in LA this Jaguar defense has to alter their style just a bit and it’s proven to be a bit of a challenge in adapting. In addition to Darnold needing to bounce back this could be a game where we see Robby Anderson re-emerge as a downfield playmaker helping his young quarterback. The Jets have capable skill position talent lead by Bell so let’s see if their big men can step their play up and give them a chance to beat a solid Jaguar squad.
It’s somewhat ironic that the first year rookie QB Gardner Minshew has looked more like a poised veteran than Darnold who has 16 career starts. That’s why there is so much excitement and Minshew Mania in Jacksonville as the Jags are hoping they’ve found their franchise guy for the future. Minshew has settled back to reality a bit the last couple of weeks but he’s still playing really good football for a rookie or even in comparison to a lot of other QBs in the league. The New York defense will look to rattle Minshew and slow down suddenly hot Leonard Fournette in a game they believe they can win. When you look at what the Jets offense has been this season it’s a minor miracle that their defense is actually ranked in the top half in the league. It’s likely that the Jets will be able to hold Fournette down as they are pretty stout against bigger backs, which will put some extra pressure on Minshew and the wide receiver group. D.J. Chark continues to show his ability and while the Jaguars don’t have the most recognizable group at WR they have enough quality to give Minshew options when he throws. One unnoticed thing that has hurt the Jags is the season ending loss of their starting TE James O’ Shaugnessy who was a favorite security target for Gardner Minshew in short passing situations. The Jets built their defense on strenght at the defensive line position and this is the type of game where those guys need to earn their money as how they perform against the Jaguars offensive line could be the ultimate difference between a win and a loss.
As if taking the Chargers on the road to cover wasn’t frightening enough, we’re now going with a New York Jets team that was thoroughly embarrassed and didn’t even look like they could compete with some college teams on Monday night. This game is the classic NFL overreaction based on one bad beating seen nationally by NY against the best team in the league. The Jaguars should win this game at home and they most likely will, but are they good enough to be giving anyone a touchdown? You may need to shop or pay a little more juice to get the 7 points as it’s 6.5 on some sites, but we found +7 for -115 on a couple of sites. This will be a pretty telling game for where Sam Darnold’s mental toughness sits and we’ve believe enough in the kid to take the touchdown and see what happens.
Yanni’s Pick – Jets +7 (Jaguars 20, Jets 16)
JJ’s Pick – Jets +7 (Jaguars 24, Jets 20)
vs. 
CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-0)
Sunday – October 27th – 4:05pm
Spread: 49ers -6
Over/Under: 42
Public Money Percentage: San Francisco 60%
The Breakdown:
Two of the hottest teams in the league meet in a late game on the west coast as the Carolina Panthers take on the San Francisco 49ers. There are probably six teams that have a shot in the NFC this year and these are two of them. Although the Niners’ enter the game as fairly heavy 6 point favorites, this game should be a good one.
The Carolina Panthers find themselves in a really perplexing situation as face of the franchise Cam Newton (well maybe co-face with Luke Keuchly) has worked his way through his rehab stint and is resuming football activities. Kyle Allen has not lost as a starter and while his overall talent level may not be that of Newton, clearly his leadership and decision making are at least at that mark if not quite a bit higher. Head coach Ron Rivera said he wants to be smart and take his time with Newton so Allen will look to remain undefeated facing his toughest assignment to date, a road tilt with the 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The Panthers offense has been really productive as Christian McCaffrey seems like the surest bet in the league to perform at a ridiculous level every single week. It will be interesting to see what Niner’ defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has in mind to slow down McCaffrey and to try to rattle Kyle Allen. Even if McCaffrey can make some things happen on the ground or through the air, in order for the Panthers to put up serious points they’re going to need something from one of their receivers or Greg Olsen. Carolina’s offensive line has played much better this year and they’ll need to play their best game of the season to go against the deepest and most talented defensive line in the league. Cliche battle of the trenches game, the winner of that match could very well decide the outcome.
As mentioned in the other game of the teaser the Broncos traded veteran WR Emmanuel Sanders over to San Francisco as the Niners’ are going all in as you might expect for a team with some much going for it right now. Sanders may not play at all or will be very limited this weekend so don’t look for him to be a factor. The piece that is interesting here is it tells you that SF felt they needed to get Jimmy Garoppollo some weapons on the outside as they aren’t confident in what they have there currently. That’s equally evident with the slowdown in production from TE George Kittle who is seeing a lot of attention in the passing game. The biggest opportunity in this game for the San Francisco offense is going to come from the legs of whichever of the seemingly dozen running backs Kyle Shanahan is utilizing. In all seriousness that’ll be mostly Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman and both should find success against what has been a pretty soft Carolina defensive front. Luke Keuchly is again among the league leaders in tackles which is equally reflective of his amazing sideline to sideline talent, and the fact that the Panthers have ball carriers getting through the first line with far too much regularity. If the running game does what it should for SF in this game life will be a lot easier for Garoppollo and company.
There are a few trends that you’ll want to know if you plan on wagering on this NFC duel. Despite the great start for the 49ers, they are only 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Throw in the fact that the Panthers have completely owned San Fran going a remarkable 14-2 ATS versus them and you may want to pause before you feel like six points at home is great value for 49ers. We’ve got them teased down to a pick as they should find a way to win this game at home, but don’t be shocked if it’s a FG type game that comes down to the end.
Yanni’s Pick – Panthers +6 (49ers 23, Panthers 20)
JJ’s Pick – 49ers -6 (49ers 24, Panthers 17)
vs. 
OAKLAND RAIDERS (3-3) at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-3)
Sunday – October 27th – 4:25pm
Spread: Texans -7
Over/Under: 51.5
Public Money Percentage: Houston 61%
The Breakdown:
The Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans tangle in a contest that could have potential wild card implications for either or both teams at the end of the season. Coming off of losses a week ago, each team is looking to get back into the win column and stay in the mix in the AFC.
At first glance you would say that the Oakland Raiders have been a little up and down on the season when you look at their record and performances. In reality, it’s probably that they’ve just actually overachieved at certain points during the first half of the season. They’ve got another tough road test taking on a Texans team that is stinging from a tough divisional loss to the Colts last weekend. One of the biggest difference makers for the Raiders offensively is rookie running back Josh Jacobs who is a game-time decision to play on Sunday. If Jacobs can’t go this could really put the Raiders in a bad spot as Derek Carr will be forced to carry the offense that will most likely be thin at wide receiver yet again this week. Despite that, tight end Darren Waller continues to get open and make big plays in the passing game as it’s clear Carr favors throwing to the tight end. If the Texans can keep Waller from being a factor in the passing game, it could be tough for Oakland to find ways to move the ball.
The Texans continue to play well on the offensive side of the ball and should have success against Oakland at home. The combination of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson have given them just enough balance to keep Watson from being under constant pressure and the offensive line has started to show some signs of being able to pass protect. The key battle in this game is whether or not Oakland’s edge rushers can beat the tackles and blocking of the Texans and force Watson to make quick decisions. If they can’t, it will likely be a long day for the Raiders defense. One thing to note is that Will Fuller V is not going to play in the game which takes a little of the field stretching away, although the return of Kenny Stills opposite of DeAndre Hopkins should give them enough firepower to move the ball and get points on the scoreboard.
This spread seems right about where it should be and the tough part in handicapping this one is the injury to Josh Jacobs and the overall inconsistency of the Raiders. It’s hard to tell which Oakland team is going to show up so we’re both going with the Texans. One interesting note is that Oakland has been a much better team in the first half than in the second half this season. Knowing that, it’s intriguing to look at a potential Oakland first half play or Texans second half play if you’re itching to bet this game.
Yanni’s Pick – Texans -7 (Texans 32, Raiders 23)
JJ’s Pick – Texans -7 (Texans 31, Raiders 24)
vs. 
CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-4) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-0)
Sunday – October 27th – 4:25pm
Spread: Patriots -12.5
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: New England 59%
The Breakdown:
Oddsmakers aren’t giving Cleveland much of a chance traveling to Foxborough to take on the undefeated Patriots Sunday afternoon. The Browns have been disappointing while the beat goes on for Bill Belichek in New England. Do the Browns have a shot at pulling off a major upset on the road or will the Patriots remain perfect on the season?
Head coach Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield are back under fire after another poor performance in this most recent outing. It certainly won’t get any easier for them having to face the Patriots defense in New England Sunday. The Browns are mixing things up a bit benching starting tackle Greg Robinson in an effort to provide better pass blocking for Mayfield. The most important thing early in this game is to try to get Nick Chubb running which will not be an easy thing against New England. If Chubb does not have success and the Browns become fully reliant on Mayfield, there is a chance that a lot of interceptions could be headed New England’s way. One of the fun matchups of the weekend will be Pats’ corner Stephon Gilmore who will likely be tasked with locking down Odell Beckham, Jr. With as well as Gilmore has played this season it could be one of those helmet throwing days for OBJ and the Browns.
On offense the Patriots welcome a much needed new target in Mohammed Sanu at wide receiver as they had to place Josh Gordon on injured reserve earlier in the week. Sanu is the type of receiver that could really fit in well in the NE offense understanding what Tom Brady sees having been a former quarterback. Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichek are as good as it gets at working in timely creative play calls so at some point you can figure to see Sanu on reverses, jet sweeps, potential throws, etc. The media seems to think the Patriots are in dire straits at wide receiver, but we don’t see it that way at all. Brady has done a lot more with a lot less at the position in years past. Jakobi Meyers has the look of a potentially underrated weapon, Phillip Dorsett has a nice rapport with Brady, and as long as Julian Edelman is in the slot they should be fine. Don’t be surprised if New England looks to get tight end Ben Watson involved this week as that position could be something they really need later in the season. With the Browns banged up in the secondary Watson could find himself with some room to make plays. One other thing to look at here is the run/pass ration for NE in this game. The Browns are built to rush the passer on defense and Bill Belichek knows that. There could be a heavy dose of Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead in this game limiting the amount of times Brady drops back to throw.
The Browns seem to be a trendy pick this week and with the large amount of points their getting and playing with their backs against the wall. It wouldn’t be surprising if they played New England close in this game at all, especially if the Patriots are run heavy which is a good possibility. We’re staying away from this one, but for the sake of having to pick it, we each will go with the home team assuming they’re able to continue their defensive dominance and get some takeaways against the interception prone Mayfield.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -12 (Patriots 24, Browns 10)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -12 (Patriots 27, Browns 13)
vs. 
GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-1) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-2)
Sunday – October 27th – 8:20pm
Spread: Packers -4
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 65%
The Breakdown:
The crew at Sunday Night Football thought they had an absolute gem when they looked ahead at this game on the schedule a few weeks ago. An unfortunate injury to Patrick Mahomes and some others have taken a little of the sizzle off of this one despite the fact it has a lot of importance in the standings. Green Bay is a road favorite against backup quarterback Matt Moore in a game that the public has a lot of interest in betting on both sides.
We’ll admit we were a little skeptical of the GB offense with Davante Adams on the shelf which he will be again this week. All Aaron Rodgers has done is play some of the best football of his career in his absence and guide the Packers to a 6-1 record. Despite a phenomenal performance from the Kansas City defense after their leader Patrick Mahomes went down, Rodgers will take a crack at this defense that was previously ridiculed for their poor play. Making matters worse for KC is they will be without their prized defensive end Frank Clark who will be missing this game along with another missed game from his linemate Chris Jones. The Packers have a clear advantage on the offensive line so Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is going to have to find some aggressive blitzes and looks to try to get pressure on Rodgers and slow down Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams running the ball. The obvious difference between their last game and this one is who the quarterback throwing the football is as Joe Flacco is certainly no Aaron Rodgers.
Kansas City does get a bit of good news as Sammy Watkins returns from his hamstring injury giving the Chiefs their trio of Hill, Watkins and Kelce for the first time since the beginning of week two. They’ll need all of them as well as a sound running game to help Matt Moore against an improved Green Bay defense. The Chiefs will again with without the left side of their offensive line as Eric Fisher and Andrew Wylie will miss the contest which is a little scary against the edge rusher Smith tandem for the Pack’. Andy Reid has never been the most disciplined coach in terms of the running game, but the key to beating this Green Bay defense is to run between the tackles which the Chiefs can do if they commit to it. With a full week plus of preparation what can we expect out of Matt Moore at quarterback? If Moore can play even decent football the Chiefs have a good chance to win as the Arrowhead Stadium crowd will be fired up on Sunday night.
On Thursday we saw how the rest of the Kansas City team responded in support of Matt Moore coming into the game and you have the think with it being a prime-time home game we’ll see that kind of effort again. You have to wonder though how big the absence of Frank Clark on that defense will be against Rodgers and company. Too many unknowns for us in this game so no official play, but we’re both thinking the Chiefs keep this game close enough that taking the points at home is worth it.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs +4 (Packers 23, Chiefs 20)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs +4 (Packers 27, Chiefs 24)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-6) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-4)
Monday – October 28th – 8:15pm
Spread: Steelers -14
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Miami 60%
The Breakdown:
Monday Night Football is back in Pittsburgh and it’s good for the league they’re there or else there might not be anyone in attendance for this prime time game. Fortunately for the NFL the Steelers fans show up any time and anywhere, and probably believe their team still has a chance at a playoff berth. The Dolphins find themselves two touchdown underdogs which isn’t unusual, except for the fact that they’re playing against a backup quarterback.
The Dolphins organization may not be concerned with winning any games this season, however head coach Brian Flores certainly wants to get his first win in the league. He’ll stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback who clearly gives this team the best chance at a victory as he had the Bills on the ropes a week ago before a bad interception changed the momentum. Another tough road test for Flores and Fitzpatrick as Heinz Field will be fired up looking for another Steeler win. A bright spot for the Dolphins was watching Mark Walton run the football a week ago as he looked fresh, strong and fast cutting and running with power. The challenge here is it’s unlikely he’ll be able to get much going against the Pittsburgh front seven. Despite some injuries to that unit they should be able to slow down Walton and Kenyan Drake enough to make Fitzpatrick into a full-time thrower, which is not the most ideal scenario for the Dolphins. This has the scary feeling of one of those games with 3 or 4 Fitzpatrick picks that gets out of hand.
Knowing Mike Tomlin, the Steelers will look to run the football a lot and try to wear down the Dolphins as well as get some mojo with his running game. Despite their 2-4 record The terrible towel crew believe they are still alive in their division and want something good to build on in addition to just a Monday night win. James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster should both get some good first half action. Ultimately, the Steelers will rely on their offensive line to push the Dolphins around defensively as they’re just flat out better.
With Fitzpatrick there is always a chance of some craziness happening. although in this case that is probably going to be in terms of turnovers. The wild thing about this spread is over 60% of the public money is on Miami. We can’t imagine laying two touchdowns with backup quarterbacks, but we can less imagine betting on the Dolphins so we’ll go with the black and yellow on Monday night.
