We knew the Southern 500 was going to chew some cars up and spit them out. But wow did Sunday night’s test of stamina consume some of the best teams in the Cup Series. Kevin Harvick’s late charge failed in an unforeseen fiery end while mechanical issues rejected the bids of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., and Kyle Larson. I’ll happily take a 2-1 outcome on the fire-filled featured matchup bets at Darlington. With that excellent race in the rear view, that quick turnaround between the Labor Day holiday and the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway is just fine with me.

The 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 – Early Handicap for Kansas

Race #2 of the NASCAR Playoffs comes on the heels of 27 points-paying races that provide a ton of valuable data, especially in terms of comparable races with the Next Gen car. Not only are we working primarily with Kansas, Charlotte, and Las Vegas information, Ryan from ifantasyrace.com loops in Michigan to provide a related recent data point. Auto Club is another tangential race to consider. After four seasons of NASCAR Cup Series coverage at BetCrushers.com, we’ve been fortunate to work with – and learn from – a handful of very talented NASCAR analysts/handicappers. Ryan is up there at the top of the list as an excellent resource alongside our good friend Paul at NASCARStyleOdds. That said, I have one head-to-head wager locked up at the moment and will be back Sunday morning with another set of matchup bets.

Next Generation Duel: Christopher Bell -105 vs. Tyler Reddick -125 (or -114/-114)

Most importantly, are you buying or selling Tyler’s mustache? Ms. JJ says the ‘stache has to go but the kid is running hot. I’d say that a three-race Top 10 streak after a strong P3 in the Southern 500 earned him a little extra rope. Regardless, the #8 driver looks to break through the Top 20 plateau in his third postseason Kansas Cup race. Since jumping into the RCR #8 back in 2020, Tyler Reddick has put up 80+ ratings in four of five races with a 97.9 last spring and 96.2 in May. But only one of those performances resulted in a Top 10 finish (P7 in May 2021).

These two promising young drivers started the spring contest on the front row and are likely candidates to be on top of the board once again on Saturday – especially considering how fast they have been recently. Christopher Bell earns the edge in recent speed after weighting Michigan, Richmond, and Darlington a bit higher than the road courses and Daytona. Where the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota #20 starts to separate from the #8 Chevrolet is with Kansas history and on comparable tracks in 2022. Despite the inevitable miscues on both sides of the ledger, Bell’s 90+ ratings and corresponding Top 10 finishes in both Kansas playoff races firmly outpaced Reddick in both aspects. Plus Ryan’s PROS rankings have given the overall performance edge to the #20 in the last two contests here.

WAGER: Bell (-105 BetUS; -114 BetRivers)

Like most drivers in the field this weekend, these playoff drivers have succumbed to occasional tough beats recently. But current form points to them being legitimate factors Sunday afternoon. The handicapping blood in my body requires consideration of the arguments in favor of Reddick in this matchup. And the largest factor of them all could be what we see in practice and qualifying. Reddick was a monster on the comp tracks last season and Bell continues to show a slight tendency for spin outs, even though it didn’t hurt him too badly at Richmond the other week. What I keep coming back to is JGR’s speed of late – especially on the non-superspeedway ovals. Mix that raw speed with three Top 10 finishes in the last four here and my money is in play before the weekend rolls around.

Green Flags and Kickoffs

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