After an eventful Indy Road Course fiasco the Cup Series migrates north to Michigan for a different style of action. Turn 1 debacles and the frenzied overtime restart combined to wreak havoc on some betting cards, while leaving others victorious. Daniel Suarez getting knocked out in that final sequence hurt my chances for a big day but the damage was limited. And what about Chris Buescher’s epic display of persistence after literally being on fire and going two laps down?!? Our buddy Paul might have something to say about it after writing off that Top 10 ticket of his. On that note, let’s jump into a few post-qualifying matchup bets I have in the accounts for the 2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
Playing the 2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 – Featured Handicaps for Michigan
The word on the street is speed. Ryan at iFantasyRace.com says Kansas is a mini-Michigan. Then you have Rory and Derek from the NASCAR Twitter betting group talking about so many variables going into this race. One thing is for sure: betting without conviction will eventually leave your bankroll in shambles. Saturday’s festivities revealed the Toyotas’ speed as well as some of those usual suspects in the Chevys like Larson, Elliott, and Reddick. Should be a good one as long as Mother Nature obliges. BOL!
Up-And-Comers: Tyler Reddick -110 vs. Christopher Bell
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reddick | A- | B | B | D | A- |
| Bell | A | B+ | A- | C+ | A |
Who would have thought that these two drivers would have taken home trophies from three of the last five races? Tyler Reddick’s two road course victories and Christopher Bell’s New Hampshire W have them in good shape for the first round of the playoffs. Plus it gives these two decent momentum for the FireKeepers Casino 400. You can pretty much throw their past results at Michigan out the window as these teams have ascended well above their levels the last couple seasons.
Both were fast on this track type earlier in the year with a nod to Bell and the #20 JGR team for consistently-good finishes at Las Vegas (P10), Kansas (P5), and Charlotte (P5). Not to say that Reddick’s P7 in Vegas and P6 at the Coca-Cola 600 are chopped liver by any stretch of the imagination. Neither team disappointed yesterday yet I give give the edge to Bell’s Toyota by virtue of his solid non-road course finishes going all the way back to Dover. Reddick likely needs a Top 5 finish to knock off the #20 – which is certainly possible but far from a lock with the Gibbs camp bringing serious muscle to Michigan this weekend.
WAGER: Bell -110
Momentum or Experience: Chase Elliott -120 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott | A+ | A | B- | B | A- |
| Truex | A | B+ | B+ | A- | A- |
Chase Elliott’s well-documented P1/P2 finish streak ended abruptly at Indy after five straight top results. His 5- and 10-lap averages in practice reflect the #9’s giddy up, but don’t sleep on Martin Truex Jr. He shares the tailwinds that the Toyotas have despite being the most overlooked driver in the organization. Both have demonstrated proficiency on the Michigan two-mile oval with Chase knocking out four straight Top 10s here and MTJ logging four straight Top 5 finishes before last year’s P10. In my opinion, the #19’s “value” as an even-money dog lies with the Gibbs’ camp’s speed at Michigan’s comparable tracks…with one caveat: Elliott had the fastest machine at Charlotte. As many times as I’ve evaluated these two drivers this morning, I keep coming back to Martin’s sneaky blend of experience and speed. Chase is the man to beat after July’s heater but Truex should be a tough challenger.
WAGER: MTJ +100
Pre-Qualification Leftovers: Joey Logano -125 vs. Kevin Harvick
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logano | C- | C | B- | B | A |
| Harvick | B | B | B | A+ | C+ |
This is one of three matchups I bet before Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions – the other two are no longer offered in my accounts (Harvick/Bowman & Cindric/Dillon). Since the price has stayed the same with Kevin Harvick being a dog to Joey Logano, I might as well share the handicap behind the position. Unfortunately for my wager, Joey showed just how strong the #22 should be today with a 4th-best qualifying run as opposed to the #4’s 16th-best lap. If there’s any bright spot with Harvick’s Saturday afternoon it would be the decent practice times and the number of laps he put down.
2022’s Next Gen car devalues most prior seasons’s results. But you still have to take into account what these two drivers have done at Michigan, and that is win races. These two monopolized the five contests prior through the 2020 season. Logano won one and Harvick took the other four, including a 2020 sweep in the midst of an epic season. Aside from New Hampshire, the #22 has lacked big speed recently and has generally failed to deliver results. But I cannot forget how strong Joey was in his Darlington and Gateway wins a couple months back. Compare that to a fairly steady #4 team that delivered 8 Top 10 finishes in 11 races prior to an unfortunate end at Pocono while running in the front pack. Logano’s speed yesterday is a concern but the wager is booked and I have no problem riding it out.
WAGER: Harvick -105
Short Track On Deck
Richmond Raceway is on deck and we’re pumped to get back to some short track racing as the playoffs approach! To get our NASCAR, MLB, and NFL content delivered directly to your inbox, subscribe below or follow us on Twitter. Don’t worry, no spam and we’re not hard up for cash to sell your email address for a few cents. JJ and Yanni don’t roll like that. BOL this weekend and enjoy the race!
