Who would have thunk that four days days of golf and hiking would leave me next to no time to write up handicaps? No worries on your end, however, as Monday through Thursday was about as close to a break-even chop as can be. I’ve finally made the jump to tracking my season’s wagers on Betstamp after talking with a couple trusted sports bettors who love the app’s functionality. Don’t ask me why it didn’t count yesterday’s Cincinnati first 5 inning total winner with Mr. Pig, but that’s another issue altogether. I digress. With that housekeeping out of the way, it’s time to bust out the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-13-2022 with a Solo Shot. BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ DETROIT TIGERS (-145)
J. Lyles (R) vs. E. Rodriguez (L)
Who’s hot and who’s not is all you need to know, right? The Orioles have taken care of business with wins in 6 of their last 8 games. After taking a close on in St. Louis, they head north to the Motor City to square off against a slumping Tigers club that has gone 1-9 in their last 10. And at a dog price the Baltimore spot looks mighty juicy. Of course it isn’t as cut and dried for my tastes – there are several pitfalls with the O’s in this matchup against talented lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
A Tale of Two Pitchers
4.50 ERA aside, Eduardo Rodriguez’ core numbers are in sync with trusted preseason projections for his sub-4.00 FIP year in Detroit (3.84 FIP/3.88 xFIP, 3.86 SIERA). Yet his swinging strike rate is halved and 40.9% hard hit rate is up 7% from the 2021 season. Plus Eduardo’s .247 BABIP is well below expectation. Granted, the right-hander has gone through a gauntlet of tough lineups in his last four starts: Yankees, Twins, Dodgers, and Astros. While I wouldn’t put Baltimore’s in that group, you can’t disregard them as a potential threat either.
Does anyone think that Baltimore starter Jordan Lyles is truly the low-4.00 FIP pitcher that he’s been in the first six starts of the 2022 season? Well, his underlying metrics are aligned in that regard (4.38 FIP/4.22xFIP, 4.28 SIERA). Lyles’ ground ball and hard hit rates are reasonable for a guy who doesn’t fool a whole lot of hitters. Should we expect Jordan’s ugly home run rates from his post-Colorado years to rear their ugly heads anytime soon? The Tigers will certainly need to get their stuff together to take advantage of this potential weakness much like the Yankees did. But these guys are far from the Bronx Bombers.
I tested three scenarios relating to these starters for this handicap. Both the “base case” and “equal footing” tests made the posted lines advantageous for a Baltimore position(s). If I fall back on my trusted projection entities, things swing quite a bit towards Detroit. After all, we’re talking about a 1.5-run differential to FIP in favor of the Tigers. But will Jordan Lyles come crashing back down to earth rapidly tonight? Fading that is the true leap of faith for an Orioles wager in my eyes.
Diverging Offenses
Much has been made about the Tigers’ lack of run production recently. A basic comparison of wRC+ on a season-long basis shows the O’s have been close to 20% more productive on the macro level. Things really start to get lopsided on a trailing 14-day basis with Baltimore nearly 50% better. And it didn’t get any more rosy this past week.
Trailing 7-Day Offensive Production
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | .269 | .314 | .380 | 106 |
| DET | .195 | .252 | .249 | 52 |
Detroit’s slump must break at some point, right? Just like Jordan Lyles is expected to eventually reach his 5.00+ FIP outlook and give up more homers. One aspect going against today being Day One of the Tigers turnaround is that my projection and reality to date pegs this lineup as being more effective against lefties than righties like Lyles. On the opposite end, Baltimore should be about 20% better against southpaws than they have been to date. They’re gradually getting there it seems.
So whether my preseason expectation is altogether wrong or that it is finally starting to manifest could be partially answered against E-Rod. Regardless, I conservatively make the Orioles’ offense about 8% more productive than the Tigers tonight. Note that they were without hot-hitting Ryan Mountcastle and regulars Ramon Urias and Rougned Odor against the Cardinals on Thursday – the former of which poses the bigger issue if he is scratched again. However, Baltimore still rolls out a core group of hitters who have been quite effective against lefties this season:
- Cedric Mullins .420 SLG, 129 wRC+
- Trey Mancini .432 SLG, 121 wRC+
- Anthony Santander .387 SLG, 145 wRC+
Bullpen Fatigue
Detroit’s day off yesterday is in direct contrast to Baltimore’s six games in five days due to a couple rainouts at the end of last week. And the O’s relief unit has certainly paid the price for that compressed schedule, emphasizing the need for Jordan Lyles to pitch a clean 6 innings tonight. They beat the Cardinals with 9 innings of bullpen arms, essentially taking 4-5 relievers out of service including closer Felix Bautista. Who likely remains is of concern to me. Setup man Cionel Perez could be their lone high-leverage guy with Logan Allen there for bulk and Denyi Reyes looking for his first MLB experience. That takes some of the luster off of what could been seen as a wash between these two bullpens.
WAGER: [0.5u] Orioles +122
WAGER: [0.5u] Orioles First 5 Innings +136
While I like the full game position to allow Baltimore’s offensive advantage more room to play out, the bullpen situation shaves off a couple % of EV. Regardless, I took a half-unit position last night while waiting for the first 5 inning prices to open at my offshore accounts this morning. Unless you believe that Jordan Lyles crashes and burns, there is a lot to like with a first 5 inning price above +125.
Heading for Home
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