vs. 
Miami Hurricanes (0-0) vs. #8 Florida Gators (0-0)
Saturday
7:00pm
Camping World Stadium – Orlando
(ESPN)
Florida -7.5 (Even)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
It’s a long off-season if you’re a die hard football college football fan as many folks, particular in the south are. The 2019 season kicks off with a matchup of two in-state rivals who are looking to not only find themselves early in the season, but also make to make a bold statement in their first game. These two teams have combined for a lot of historic wins, NFL players and championships over the preview few decades. While the 2019 version of each team may not represent their all-time best squads, each group offers potential and promise. On paper the Florida Gators look as though they should be able to keep a good handle on this game, but in a rivalry like this against a storied program this game is far from a sleeper.
What We’re Watching
One word. Quarterbacks. You could probably state QB play as something to watch in almost any matchup, however the quarterbacks in this game are particularly worth tuning in to see. The Florida Gators are hoping that their signal caller Feleipe Franks can build on what was a solid finish to the 2018 season. Reports are he’s looking sharp and could be the key to keeping this Florida Gator team in the hunt for the playoffs. Miami basically wasted a talented defense a season ago by putting an offense on the field that couldn’t get much of anything done, at least consistently. As a result that talented defense suffered and the team as a whole was a shell of it’s glory days. New head coach Manny Diaz made it clear that one of his first priorities was finding the guy needed to lead them back to, well, relevance. In what could be considered a mild surprise, Diaz is putting his eggs into the basket of first-time starter Jarren Williams. Williams edged out transfer Tate Martell who many thought would capture the job as well as N’Kosi Perry. Diaz sees something in Williams and it will be interesting to see if one of Diaz’ early decisions makes him look really good or really bad.
Key Trends and Indicators
One of the BetCrushers favorite stats is the .5 spread at key numbers. When teams are favored by 3.5 or 7.5 they actually cover at a ridiculous near 66% rate. In simple terms, your sportsbook is trying to get the public to grab the underdog by giving them that extra half point. Sure, a lot of games end up at 3 and 7 point differentials but we always keep this rule in mind.
A year ago Miami was 7-6 against the spread but only 1-4 as an underdog. Florida was 8-2 as a favorite.
Miami has owned Florida over the last six meetings including two neutral site bowl game wins.
Miami has been an “under” team with a combined score just over 38 total points in their last 9 games of 2018.
The public money is pretty evenly split as of the day before with the Gators at 54% and Hurricanes at 46%
BetCrushers Take:
The BetCrushers will be in attendance for this game, so even though it’s a little dicey to pick games early in the season we have to get a little action on this one. QB Jarren Williams is probably the biggest potential factor in this game and could determine the outcome. If he plays well, the Canes have a legitimate shot to pull the upset. If he struggles it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Gators run away with it. Both teams will look for their running games to provide an edge and the defenses as they always are will be keys in this matchup. The other thing to look at here is the typical turnover battle. Florida was good in this department one year ago while the Miami really struggled, just a season after patenting the “Turnover” Chain. If Florida takes care of the ball they should be able to at minimum get the outright win. Early season games generally tend to favor the defenses and I’d expect a bit of a feeling out process in the first half of this one. In the end I think Florida will be too much for a Miami team that is still figuring out who they are under Manny Diaz.
