Imagine thinking that Wednesday night’s Bundy-Bradish matchup was going to be a pitcher’s duel. That’s where I left off, dropping the Twins game and watching my ROI slip into a more reasonable level. The day job has been punishing enough but today we head south to kick back and hit the links. But before I hit the road, let’s get the weekend started with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-7-2022. It’s another weather-impacted day on the diamonds and the slate is on the empty side early Saturday morning – making it a perfect time for a Solo Shot on this wet Saturday. BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ SEATTLE MARINERS (+100)
D. Rasmussen (R) vs. M. Gonzales (L)
Tonight’s game in the Pacific Northwest features a couple teams heading in opposite directions. Granted, any sort of momentum can be halted on a moment’s notice. Does it matter that the Rays have won 8 of their last 10 with the Mariners dropping 9 of their last 10? Maybe the better question is whether Tampa Bay taking 4 of 5 from Seattle so far this season influences the handicap. As far as I’m concerned, Seattle is showing their true colors as a third place club – not the 90-win team that surprised us in 2021. Nonetheless, the season-long offensive metrics lean towards the Rays even though neither team has been lighting it up at the plate lately.
TBR, SEA Offenses: .SLG (wRC+)
| Season | L14 Days | L7 Days | vs. LHP | vs. RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | .390 (114) | .307 (108) | .295 (100) | .392 (121) | |
| SEA | .374 (111) | .296 (101) | .304 (75) | .372 (109) |
Cool weather under the roof at T-Mobile Park is less than conducive to scoring within its spacious confines. Don’t tell that to these two clubs whose power shined bright last night – especially Geno with his two dingers. My expectations for scoring are modest tonight – although the total of 7 might be a half-run light I’m not interested in going that route. Notwithstanding these exact starting pitchers and then adjusting for recent form, I have the Rays offense coming in about 5% better than the Mariners. That holds true in both phases: starting pitchers and bullpen.
Who Wins the Arms Race?
Last night’s showing by both bullpens was less than stellar as they combined to yield 7 of the game’s 15 total runs. Tampa Bay went the opener-starter-bullpen route but the M’s had 4 runs on the board before dipping into their ‘pen in earnest. Likewise, Seattle phenom Logan Gilbert got knocked for 4 runs before their overachieving unit coughed up 3 in the 9th. Long story short, the Rays have a late-game group that is conservatively 1/2-run better to FIP and has operated much more efficiently in recent weeks. They used the key arms of JP Feyereisen, Brooks Raley, and Ryan Thompson but they’re deep enough where quality guys like Andrew Kittredge, Jason Adam, and Jeffrey Springs are ready to step in.
In addition to Drew Rasmussen’s 6 innings of 2-hit ball over the Mariners in St. Petersburg on April 27th, the 26-year-old righty has been pretty good this season. Maybe a little too good. His .201 BABIP, 39.1% ground ball rate, and iffy 42.2% hard hit rate make me question his 3.18 FIP/3.33 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA. So I stress tested him closer to the 4.00 mark in expectation of regression in the near future. Still pretty rock solid with the swing-and-miss stuff despite not being a strikeout pitcher.
Seattle’s trusty lefty Marco Gonzales continues to search for the effectiveness he showed in 2019 with his fastball/changeup combo. Gonzales is a contact pitcher after all, though the long ball has hurt him in most of his 2022 starts – especially against a pair of potent lineups in Minnesota and Houston. The good news is that his ERA, xFIP, and SIERA have all checked in at the low-4.00 mark. Pay no attention to that 6.45 FIP, right? Regardless, Tampa Bay has enough value to play close to -130 with enough incremental edges lining up on their side: offense, starting pitcher, bullpen, and arguably, defense.
WAGER: [0.5u] Rays -120
WAGER: [0.5u] Rays First 5 Innings -120
This seems like a grindy one and I could not make my mind up whether to create a first 5 inning or a full game position. So I “compromised” and played both at half-units. Indecision can be my worst enemy at times. What can I say? BOL on this rainy Saturday in the east…it’s time to head south for a while. The golf course is calling me and so is handicapping the MLB. Jobs be damned!
Heading for Home
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